RB Leipzig’s attacking rhythm, averaging two goals per home game against similarly strong opponents, and PSV Eindhoven’s defensive frailty, conceding 2.5 away goals on average, set the stage for a high-scoring affair. The model projects a 56% chance of a home win, 23% for a draw and 20% for an away win, with the most likely outcome a 1-1 draw at 10.8%. The expected total of 3.2 goals aligns with the 22% probability that the match will finish with three goals. Leipzig’s recent form, a win-loss-win-loss-win streak capped by a 3-0 triumph over Borussia Mönchengladbach, contrasts with PSV’s three-game winning run, highlighted by a 6-1 rout of Utrecht. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals (98.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.1%), Under 6.5 (95.8%), Home +2 handicap (91.9%), Under 5.5 (90.0%), Away under 2.5 goals (89.1%), Home over 0.5 goals (86.6%) and Home under 3.5 goals (85.5%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
RB Leipzig win
56.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
PSV Eindhoven win
20.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
RB Leipzig
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
1.33
2.38
1.19
1.71
1.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
5.00
1.00
5.00
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.33
2.00
2.00
2.00
0.67
2.00
vs Weaker (23)
2.30
1.00
2.58
0.67
2.00
1.36
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (PSV Eindhoven) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PSV Eindhoven
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.1
Avg scored
3.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.87
1.53
3.31
1.56
2.36
1.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.75
2.00
2.50
1.50
1.00
2.50
vs Weaker (25)
3.12
1.44
3.62
1.54
2.58
1.33
Clean sheet %
10% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (RB Leipzig) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.1%
Under 1.5
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.9%
Under 2.5
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.5%
Under 3.5
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
59.8%
No
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
8.7%
1-0
7.7%
3-1
6.6%
3-0
5.8%
2-2
5.6%
1-2
5.6%
RB Leipzig goals ↓
PSV Eindhoven goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
3.9%
2.8%
1.1%
0.3%
1
7.7%
11%
5.6%
2.1%
0.6%
2
8.7%
9.9%
5.6%
2.1%
0.6%
3
5.8%
6.6%
3.8%
1.4%
0.4%
4
2.9%
3.3%
1.9%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = RB Leipzig goals (down), columns = PSV Eindhoven goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
European competition: teams are ranked by a cross-league strength score - each side's domestic attack and defence made comparable via the model's fitted league strengths (stronger leagues weighted up). Each side's actual domestic figures are shown below.
🏆 Cross-league strength
0-100 · adjusted for league strength · 67 teams
Arsenal
100
Manchester City
97
Bayern München
90
Manchester United
89
Liverpool
87
Barcelona
86
Aston Villa
86
Inter
84
Real Madrid
84
Como
82
Borussia Dortmund
82
Paris Saint Germain
81
AS Roma
80
Sporting CP
79
FC Porto
79
Villarreal
78
Napoli
77
VfB Stuttgart
76
Atletico Madrid
76
Lens
76
RB Leipzig
76
Real Betis
74
Lille
71
Lyon
70
Union St. Gilloise
70
Viking
70
Bodo/Glimt
67
Club Brugge KV
67
PSV Eindhoven
66
Galatasaray
64
Slavia Praha
62
Fenerbahçe
60
Feyenoord
60
NEC Nijmegen
58
Omonia Nicosia
56
Kauno Žalgiris
56
Dinamo Zagreb
55
Lech Poznan
54
Gornik Zabrze
53
Shakhtar Donetsk
49
Levski Sofia
49
FC Thun
47
Sabah FA
46
Sparta Praha
45
Slovan Bratislava
45
Aarhus
45
Hapoel Beer Sheva
44
Heart Of Midlothian
43
FK Crvena Zvezda
43
Sturm Graz
43
Celtic
42
Lask Linz
41
Olympiakos Piraeus
41
Universitatea Craiova
39
Mjallby AIF
36
Kairat Almaty
30
Vikingur Reykjavik
29
Celje
25
Shamrock Rovers
22
KuPS
21
Ararat-Armenia
20
AEK Athens FC
15
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
11
Larne
10
KI Klaksvik
7
Saburtalo
1
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0
RB Leipzig is 10 pts stronger cross-league than PSV Eindhoven(76 vs 66 · ranks #21 vs #29 of 67).
RB Leipzig 1.91 (Germany: Bundesliga) · PSV Eindhoven 2.47 (Netherlands: Eredivisie). Domestic-league average points per game; different leagues, so not a like-for-like verdict.
RB Leipzig 1.94 (Germany: Bundesliga) · PSV Eindhoven 2.97 (Netherlands: Eredivisie). Domestic-league goals scored per game; different leagues, so not a like-for-like verdict.
RB Leipzig 1.38 (Germany: Bundesliga) · PSV Eindhoven 1.32 (Netherlands: Eredivisie). Domestic-league goals conceded per game; different leagues, so not a like-for-like verdict.
⏱️ Possession
Not compared for European ties.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
RB Leipzig
For 4.9 · Against 4.0 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 0.7 · Total 2.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.4 · Against 9.9 · Total 19.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
PSV Eindhoven
For 7.4 · Against 3.7 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.4 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.6 · Against 8.1 · Total 16.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
RB Leipzig
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
11.0
9.6
3.0
3.0
3.0
19.6
19.3
19.8
vs Stronger (3)
11.0
11.5
10.0
3.3
2.5
5.0
18.0
14.0
26.0
vs Similar (9)
11.4
11.2
11.7
3.4
4.0
2.8
22.1
22.0
22.3
vs Weaker (38)
10.0
10.8
9.3
2.9
2.8
2.9
19.1
19.2
19.1
% over line
60%
57%
64%
44%
36%
52%
33%
39%
27%
% under line
40%
43%
36%
56%
64%
48%
67%
61%
73%
This opponent (PSV Eindhoven) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PSV Eindhoven
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.2
11.4
10.9
2.8
3.0
2.6
18.1
17.9
18.4
vs Stronger (2)
13.0
11.0
15.0
4.5
8.0
1.0
19.5
21.0
18.0
vs Similar (11)
10.7
13.0
8.4
3.5
5.0
2.3
20.1
22.0
18.2
vs Weaker (37)
11.2
10.9
11.4
2.5
2.3
2.8
17.5
16.4
18.5
% over line
71%
73%
70%
28%
32%
24%
16%
14%
17%
% under line
29%
27%
30%
72%
68%
76%
84%
86%
83%
This opponent (RB Leipzig) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sabah FA
12.0
Viking
12.0
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
11.5
Larne
11.4
PSV Eindhoven
11.3
Fenerbahçe
11.1
Celtic
11.0
Slavia Praha
11.0
Bodo/Glimt
10.9
Atletico Madrid
10.8
Barcelona
10.8
Real Madrid
10.7
Kairat Almaty
10.4
Club Brugge KV
10.4
RB Leipzig
10.4
Lask Linz
10.3
Lens
10.3
Heart Of Midlothian
10.3
Lech Poznan
10.3
Manchester City
10.3
Liverpool
10.2
KI Klaksvik
10.2
FC Thun
10.2
Gornik Zabrze
10.1
Feyenoord
10.1
VfB Stuttgart
10.0
Omonia Nicosia
10.0
Sturm Graz
10.0
Slovan Bratislava
9.9
NEC Nijmegen
9.9
Sparta Praha
9.9
Lyon
9.9
Mjallby AIF
9.8
Sporting CP
9.8
KuPS
9.8
FK Crvena Zvezda
9.7
Bayern München
9.7
Ararat-Armenia
9.6
Aarhus
9.6
Dinamo Zagreb
9.6
Lille
9.6
Manchester United
9.6
Levski Sofia
9.5
Celje
9.4
Inter
9.3
Aston Villa
9.3
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Hapoel Beer Sheva
9.2
Villarreal
9.2
Kauno Žalgiris
9.1
Real Betis
9.0
Arsenal
9.0
Saburtalo
9.0
Union St. Gilloise
9.0
Galatasaray
8.9
Shakhtar Donetsk
8.9
FC Porto
8.9
Borussia Dortmund
8.9
Olympiakos Piraeus
8.9
Lincoln Red Imps FC
8.7
AEK Athens FC
8.7
Universitatea Craiova
8.7
AS Roma
8.6
Vikingur Reykjavik
8.6
Napoli
8.4
Shamrock Rovers
8.2
Como
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Ararat-Armenia
5.8
Fenerbahçe
5.6
Sabah FA
5.6
Hapoel Beer Sheva
5.4
AEK Athens FC
5.4
FC Porto
5.2
Larne
5.1
Vikingur Reykjavik
5.1
Lincoln Red Imps FC
5.1
Sporting CP
5.1
Universitatea Craiova
5.1
Slovan Bratislava
5.0
Real Madrid
4.9
FC Thun
4.9
Union St. Gilloise
4.9
Saburtalo
4.9
Celje
4.9
Shamrock Rovers
4.9
Sturm Graz
4.8
Sparta Praha
4.8
Lyon
4.6
Levski Sofia
4.6
Omonia Nicosia
4.6
Heart Of Midlothian
4.6
Real Betis
4.6
Galatasaray
4.5
Como
4.5
Lens
4.5
KI Klaksvik
4.4
Villarreal
4.4
Olympiakos Piraeus
4.4
Kairat Almaty
4.4
Lille
4.4
Slavia Praha
4.3
Barcelona
4.3
Dinamo Zagreb
4.3
Atletico Madrid
4.3
AS Roma
4.2
Viking
4.2
Manchester United
4.1
VfB Stuttgart
4.1
Gornik Zabrze
4.0
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
4.0
NEC Nijmegen
3.9
Bayern München
3.9
Lech Poznan
3.9
FK Crvena Zvezda
3.9
Aarhus
3.9
Celtic
3.8
Shakhtar Donetsk
3.8
Aston Villa
3.8
Lask Linz
3.7
Feyenoord
3.7
Mjallby AIF
3.7
Manchester City
3.7
Borussia Dortmund
3.7
Club Brugge KV
3.6
Liverpool
3.6
Kauno Žalgiris
3.6
Arsenal
3.5
PSV Eindhoven
3.5
RB Leipzig
3.4
Napoli
3.4
Inter
3.3
KuPS
3.2
Paris Saint Germain
3.2
Bodo/Glimt
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Saburtalo
30.0
Sabah FA
29.4
AEK Athens FC
29.3
AS Roma
28.0
FC Thun
28.0
Hapoel Beer Sheva
28.0
Slavia Praha
26.9
Sporting CP
26.2
FC Porto
26.1
Como
26.1
Kairat Almaty
26.1
Vikingur Reykjavik
25.7
Slovan Bratislava
25.5
Larne
25.4
Fenerbahçe
25.3
Mjallby AIF
25.1
Lyon
25.1
Celje
25.0
Olympiakos Piraeus
25.0
Omonia Nicosia
24.9
Lincoln Red Imps FC
24.9
Lens
24.8
Villarreal
24.8
Sparta Praha
24.7
Heart Of Midlothian
24.6
Viking
24.5
Levski Sofia
24.5
Aarhus
24.3
Lech Poznan
24.1
Lille
24.0
FK Crvena Zvezda
24.0
NEC Nijmegen
23.9
Inter
23.9
Sturm Graz
23.8
Universitatea Craiova
23.8
Real Madrid
23.6
Aston Villa
23.6
Galatasaray
23.5
Dinamo Zagreb
23.4
Real Betis
23.3
Napoli
23.3
Shamrock Rovers
22.9
Gornik Zabrze
22.8
Feyenoord
22.8
VfB Stuttgart
22.6
Ararat-Armenia
22.3
Borussia Dortmund
22.3
Arsenal
22.1
KuPS
22.0
Kauno Žalgiris
22.0
Barcelona
21.8
Union St. Gilloise
21.8
Manchester United
21.5
Celtic
21.4
Liverpool
21.4
Atletico Madrid
21.1
Manchester City
21.0
Lask Linz
21.0
Club Brugge KV
20.3
RB Leipzig
19.9
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
19.7
Shakhtar Donetsk
19.4
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
Bodo/Glimt
19.0
Bayern München
18.6
PSV Eindhoven
18.3
KI Klaksvik
18.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
56.7%
Under 9.5
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
49.5%
Under 3.5
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
44.6%
Under 21.5
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
RB Leipzig or Draw
80.0%
Avg Implied -
57%
23%
20%
covers RB Leipzig + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
RB Leipzig or PSV Eindhoven
76.7%
Avg Implied -
57%
23%
20%
covers RB Leipzig + PSV Eindhoven
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or PSV Eindhoven
43.4%
Avg Implied -
57%
23%
20%
covers Draw + PSV Eindhoven
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
RB Leipzig over/under 0.5
Over
86.6%
Under
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
RB Leipzig over/under 1.5
Over
59.7%
Under
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
RB Leipzig over/under 2.5
Over
32.6%
Under
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
RB Leipzig over/under 3.5
Over
14.5%
Under
85.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PSV Eindhoven over/under 0.5
Over
67.9%
Under
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PSV Eindhoven over/under 1.5
Over
31.4%
Under
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PSV Eindhoven over/under 2.5
Over
10.7%
Under
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PSV Eindhoven over/under 3.5
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to RB Leipzig, so a minus line means RB Leipzig give that many goals of a start and PSV Eindhoven receive them. At -1, RB Leipzig must win by two or more to land; a one-goal RB Leipzig win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (RB Leipzig)
RB Leipzig -2
17.0%
Draw -2
17.5%
PSV Eindhoven +2
65.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (RB Leipzig)
RB Leipzig -1
34.5%
Draw -1
22.1%
PSV Eindhoven +1
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (RB Leipzig)
RB Leipzig +1
80.0%
Draw +1
12.1%
PSV Eindhoven -1
8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (RB Leipzig)
RB Leipzig +2
92.0%
Draw +2
5.6%
PSV Eindhoven -2
2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
RB Leipzig
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.43
1.06
0.25
0.79
0.64
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.83
0.83
1.33
0.67
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (23)
0.96
0.35
1.00
0.17
0.91
0.55
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (PSV Eindhoven) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PSV Eindhoven
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.83
1.56
0.88
1.21
0.79
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.25
1.00
2.00
0.50
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (25)
1.48
0.84
1.62
1.00
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (RB Leipzig) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
RB Leipzig over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
RB Leipzig over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
RB Leipzig over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PSV Eindhoven over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PSV Eindhoven over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PSV Eindhoven over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
RB Leipzig
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.90
1.31
0.94
0.93
0.86
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
5.00
0.00
5.00
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.50
1.17
0.67
1.33
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (23)
1.35
0.65
1.58
0.50
1.09
0.82
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (PSV Eindhoven) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PSV Eindhoven
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.70
1.75
0.69
1.14
0.71
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (25)
1.64
0.60
2.00
0.54
1.25
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (RB Leipzig) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
RB Leipzig over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
RB Leipzig over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
RB Leipzig over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PSV Eindhoven over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PSV Eindhoven over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PSV Eindhoven over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 23.5 fouls
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
RB Leipzig · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yan Diomande31%
Christoph Baumgartner30%
Rômulo28%
Assan Ouédraogo20%
Antonio Nusa14%
Brajan Gruda14%
Johan Bakayoko14%
Xaver Schlager10%
Conrad Harder9%
David Raum9%
Willi Orbán8%
Ezechiel Banzuzi7%
Max Finkgräfe7%
Benjamin Henrichs6%
Ridle Baku6%
Tidiam Gomis5%
Castello Lukeba3%
Loïs Openda0%
Péter Gulácsi0%
Lukas Klostermann0%
Kevin Kampl0%
Timo Werner0%
Maarten Vandevoordt0%
Nicolas Seiwald0%
El Chadaille Bitshiabu0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Andrija Maksimović0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Christoph Baumgartner30%
David Raum21%
Xaver Schlager20%
Ezechiel Banzuzi18%
Ridle Baku14%
Max Finkgräfe14%
Rômulo12%
Willi Orbán11%
Castello Lukeba10%
Conrad Harder9%
Nicolas Seiwald8%
Brajan Gruda7%
Maarten Vandevoordt6%
Yan Diomande6%
Tidiam Gomis5%
Johan Bakayoko5%
Péter Gulácsi4%
Loïs Openda0%
Benjamin Henrichs0%
Lukas Klostermann0%
Kevin Kampl0%
Timo Werner0%
El Chadaille Bitshiabu0%
Antonio Nusa0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Assan Ouédraogo0%
Andrija Maksimović0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
David Raum24%
Brajan Gruda21%
Yan Diomande19%
Christoph Baumgartner19%
Assan Ouédraogo15%
Lukas Klostermann14%
Rômulo12%
Conrad Harder12%
Ridle Baku11%
Antonio Nusa11%
Max Finkgräfe7%
Willi Orbán5%
Nicolas Seiwald5%
Ezechiel Banzuzi4%
Castello Lukeba3%
Xaver Schlager3%
Loïs Openda0%
Benjamin Henrichs0%
Péter Gulácsi0%
Kevin Kampl0%
Timo Werner0%
Maarten Vandevoordt0%
El Chadaille Bitshiabu0%
Johan Bakayoko0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Tidiam Gomis0%
Andrija Maksimović0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Christoph Baumgartner38%
Loïs Openda33%
Yan Diomande22%
Rômulo22%
Antonio Nusa20%
Conrad Harder16%
Brajan Gruda14%
Assan Ouédraogo10%
Johan Bakayoko9%
David Raum3%
Ridle Baku3%
Nicolas Seiwald3%
Benjamin Henrichs0%
Xaver Schlager0%
Péter Gulácsi0%
Lukas Klostermann0%
Willi Orbán0%
Kevin Kampl0%
Timo Werner0%
Maarten Vandevoordt0%
Castello Lukeba0%
El Chadaille Bitshiabu0%
Kosta Nedeljković0%
Ezechiel Banzuzi0%
Max Finkgräfe0%
Tidiam Gomis0%
Andrija Maksimović0%
PSV Eindhoven
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sergiño Dest67%
Ricardo Pepi50%
Ruben van Bommel50%
Sven Mijnans33%
Noah Fernandez33%
Ivan Perišić25%
Mauro Júnior25%
Guus Til25%
Ryan Flamingo25%
Armando Obispo0%
Dennis Man0%
Matěj Kovář0%
Paul Wanner0%
Kodai Sano0%
Amir Bouhamdi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dennis Man33%
Armando Obispo25%
Ruben van Bommel25%
Ivan Perišić0%
Mauro Júnior0%
Guus Til0%
Sven Mijnans0%
Sergiño Dest0%
Ricardo Pepi0%
Matěj Kovář0%
Paul Wanner0%
Ryan Flamingo0%
Kodai Sano0%
Noah Fernandez0%
Amir Bouhamdi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sergiño Dest67%
Ivan Perišić25%
Mauro Júnior25%
Paul Wanner25%
Ruben van Bommel25%
Amir Bouhamdi25%
Armando Obispo0%
Guus Til0%
Sven Mijnans0%
Dennis Man0%
Ricardo Pepi0%
Matěj Kovář0%
Ryan Flamingo0%
Kodai Sano0%
Noah Fernandez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ricardo Pepi75%
Guus Til50%
Sergiño Dest33%
Dennis Man33%
Kodai Sano33%
Ivan Perišić25%
Ruben van Bommel25%
Armando Obispo0%
Mauro Júnior0%
Sven Mijnans0%
Matěj Kovář0%
Paul Wanner0%
Ryan Flamingo0%
Noah Fernandez0%
Amir Bouhamdi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
RM (27)
€1456m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
BAR (30)
€1282m
BM (29)
€1076m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
INT (25)
€694m
AM (25)
€653m
AVL (27)
€536m
BD (29)
€529m
RL (31)
€506m
COM (34)
€488m
AR (29)
€471m
FP (30)
€467m
NAP (33)
€459m
VS (54)
€430m
SC (31)
€414m
GAL (29)
€345m
FEN (39)
€332m
VIL (24)
€325m
LIL (27)
€312m
LYO (32)
€293m
PE (29)
€280m
RB (25)
€235m
FEY (30)
€229m
CBK (27)
€196m
LEN (27)
€187m
SD (33)
€186m
OP (29)
€175m
SP (38)
€123m
CEL (27)
€116m
FCZ (32)
€115m
USG (26)
€98m
SP (35)
€92m
AAF (26)
€85m
BOD (24)
€75m
DZ (34)
€66m
LP (25)
€58m
NN (29)
€54m
SG (26)
€52m
VIK (27)
€47m
LL (22)
€44m
LS (27)
€38m
UC (25)
€37m
AAR (28)
€36m
SB (28)
€35m
GZ (27)
€29m
MA (24)
€26m
HOM (30)
€22m
HBS (26)
€20m
SF (24)
€17m
FT (25)
€17m
ON (23)
€15m
CEL (31)
€14m
KŽ (27)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
ARA (26)
€8m
KUP (30)
€7m
SR (31)
€7m
ER (24)
€7m
SAB (22)
€6m
VR (26)
€5m
LAR (23)
€4m
KK (28)
€3m
LRI (25)
€2m
RB Leipzig's squad is €226m more valuable than PSV Eindhoven's (€506m vs €280m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
PSG (10)
€638m
MC (9)
€635m
ARS (13)
€608m
BAR (10)
€590m
BM (10)
€554m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
AM (9)
€290m
COM (13)
€261m
AVL (10)
€220m
INT (5)
€220m
FP (11)
€214m
RL (12)
€212m
NAP (12)
€206m
VS (19)
€193m
GAL (9)
€173m
BD (8)
€170m
FEN (14)
€162m
SC (9)
€146m
AR (6)
€138m
LIL (13)
€133m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
LYO (9)
€122m
SD (16)
€115m
PE (11)
€106m
FEY (11)
€93m
CBK (10)
€92m
OP (12)
€84m
FCZ (13)
€62m
CEL (11)
€56m
LEN (8)
€52m
AAF (11)
€44m
SP (14)
€43m
DZ (15)
€33m
USG (10)
€32m
SP (10)
€27m
SG (11)
€26m
NN (11)
€22m
BOD (7)
€22m
VIK (10)
€21m
LP (10)
€21m
GZ (13)
€17m
SB (12)
€15m
UC (10)
€14m
AAR (10)
€14m
LL (5)
€13m
HOM (12)
€12m
LS (10)
€11m
HBS (13)
€10m
ON (9)
€7m
CEL (12)
€7m
MA (9)
€7m
SF (7)
€5m
FT (7)
€4m
KŽ (11)
€4m
KA (9)
€4m
SR (14)
€3m
ARA (9)
€3m
VR (12)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
KUP (9)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
LAR (6)
€1m
KK (9)
€1m
LRI (11)
€1m
RB Leipzig's attack is €106m more valuable than PSV Eindhoven's (€212m vs €106m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
BAR (8)
€324m
ARS (4)
€290m
RM (5)
€238m
MU (7)
€236m
INT (10)
€232m
LIV (6)
€201m
BM (6)
€187m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
AM (6)
€155m
BD (7)
€146m
AR (5)
€118m
RL (6)
€109m
FP (6)
€105m
LIL (4)
€102m
NAP (7)
€101m
VS (10)
€92m
SC (9)
€91m
COM (7)
€83m
LYO (8)
€82m
GAL (7)
€72m
FEN (7)
€62m
PE (5)
€60m
VIL (4)
€52m
OP (6)
€47m
FEY (4)
€43m
USG (7)
€38m
SP (8)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
SP (10)
€27m
BOD (7)
€27m
LEN (5)
€24m
CBK (5)
€23m
FCZ (6)
€21m
CEL (5)
€20m
SD (4)
€19m
AAF (5)
€16m
AAR (10)
€14m
SG (4)
€14m
VIK (5)
€12m
LL (6)
€11m
MA (6)
€11m
UC (6)
€10m
LP (3)
€9m
LS (5)
€8m
SB (6)
€7m
GZ (4)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NN (5)
€5m
FT (8)
€5m
HBS (3)
€5m
HOM (6)
€4m
ON (4)
€3m
KUP (9)
€3m
KA (5)
€2m
DZ (2)
€2m
SR (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
CEL (4)
€1m
KK (8)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
LAR (7)
€1m
LRI (4)
€0m
RB Leipzig's midfield is €50m more valuable than PSV Eindhoven's (€109m vs €60m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
ARS (12)
€508m
PSG (11)
€409m
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
BM (13)
€336m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
BD (14)
€214m
AM (10)
€208m
RL (13)
€185m
SC (13)
€176m
AVL (11)
€156m
NAP (14)
€152m
VIL (12)
€148m
FP (13)
€148m
VS (25)
€145m
COM (14)
€144m
PE (13)
€115m
LEN (14)
€112m
FEN (18)
€108m
GAL (13)
€100m
FEY (15)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
CBK (12)
€81m
LIL (10)
€76m
RB (10)
€70m
SP (20)
€61m
SD (13)
€52m
OP (11)
€44m
CEL (11)
€41m
FCZ (13)
€33m
DZ (17)
€30m
LP (12)
€28m
USG (9)
€28m
BOD (10)
€26m
NN (13)
€26m
AAF (10)
€26m
SP (11)
€22m
LL (11)
€20m
LS (12)
€19m
VIK (12)
€15m
UC (9)
€13m
SB (10)
€13m
SG (11)
€13m
MA (9)
€8m
AAR (8)
€8m
FT (10)
€8m
SF (10)
€7m
GZ (10)
€6m
CEL (15)
€6m
HOM (12)
€6m
HBS (10)
€5m
ON (10)
€5m
KŽ (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
ER (13)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
SR (10)
€2m
VR (10)
€2m
LAR (10)
€2m
KK (11)
€1m
LRI (10)
€1m
RB Leipzig's defence is €70m more valuable than PSV Eindhoven's (€185m vs €115m).
World: UEFA Champions League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full World: UEFA Champions League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Fenerbahçe
Levski Sofia
Sabah FA
Slovan Bratislava
Bodo/Glimt
Dinamo Zagreb
Celje
FK Crvena Zvezda
Aarhus
AEK Athens FC
Viking
Lyon
Kauno Žalgiris
Shamrock Rovers
Lask Linz
Celtic
Omonia Nicosia
Vikingur Reykjavik
Sturm Graz
Ararat-Armenia
Sparta Praha
Kairat Almaty
Union St. Gilloise
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Olympiakos Piraeus
NEC Nijmegen
FC Thun
Gornik Zabrze
Saburtalo
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Universitatea Craiova
KI Klaksvik
Mjallby AIF
Inter
FC Porto
Lille
Real Madrid
Slavia Praha
Como
Galatasaray
Barcelona
Paris Saint Germain
Feyenoord
Borussia Dortmund
Lens
Aston Villa
Club Brugge KV
Napoli
Shakhtar Donetsk
Villarreal
Real Betis
VfB Stuttgart
Bayern München
Liverpool
Atletico Madrid
Manchester City
Arsenal
Sporting CP
AS Roma
Manchester United
Heart Of Midlothian
KuPS
Lech Poznan
Larne