PythiaFootballBETA
FC Porto stands out as the clear favourite to win this match, with a predicted 66% chance of success, largely due to their opponent Rio Ave's struggles at home, where they have averaged just 0.5 goals scored and 3 conceded against stronger opponents. In fact, Porto are expected to win at the Estádio dos Barreiros, where Rio Ave have been vulnerable.
The model predicts a 21% chance of a draw and 12% chance of a Rio Ave win. The expected total number of goals is 2.9, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0-2 in Porto's favour, with a 12.2% probability.
Rio Ave's home form is concerning, with just 0.5 goals scored on average, while Porto have excelled on the road, scoring 1.54 goals and conceding 0.85. The model's selection is the away win, with a 66% chance of success.
The model's suggested picks include Over 21.5 fouls (84%), Over 1.5 goals (79.3% with a 4% edge), and Over 3.5 cards (78.7%). The probabilities of a home win, draw, and away win are 12%, 21%, and 66% respectively.
FC Porto secured a 0-2 victory over Rio Ave, extending their winning run and snapping their opponents' two-game losing streak. The model's call for an Away win was correct, with a pre-match probability of 66%. The model's selection, an Away win, proved accurate. Rio Ave's recent form note, after 2 straight defeats, weighed against them. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 79.3%, while Over 21.5 fouls missed, with an 83.9% chance.
Rio Ave| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 1.60 | 1.00 | 1.64 | 0.94 | 1.56 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.20 | 2.80 | 0.50 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 2.67 |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.12 | 1.36 | 1.08 | 1.42 | 1.15 | 1.31 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-9pp vs league) | |||||
FC Porto| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.60 | 0.67 | 1.75 | 0.38 | 1.43 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (5) | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (25) | 1.76 | 0.64 | 2.00 | 0.38 | 1.50 | 0.92 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
| FC Porto goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.5% | 11% | 12% | 8.5% | 4.4% |
| 1 | 3.5% | 10% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 3.5% |
| 2 | 1.8% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.4% |
| 3 | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Rio AveFC PortoRio Ave| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.3 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 27.3 | 26.6 | 28.0 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 10.8 | 10.4 | 11.4 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 24.4 | 24.4 | 24.4 |
| vs Similar (37) | 10.1 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 28.2 | 27.5 | 28.9 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 11.0 | 11.0 | - | 5.0 | 5.0 | - | 27.0 | 27.0 | - |
| % over line | 61% | 71% | 52% | 62% | 67% | 58% | 82% | 75% | 88% |
| % under line | 39% | 29% | 48% | 38% | 33% | 42% | 18% | 25% | 12% |
FC Porto| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.9 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 26.3 | 25.5 | 27.1 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (8) | 8.8 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 26.0 | 24.4 | 28.7 |
| vs Weaker (42) | 8.9 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 26.4 | 25.8 | 26.9 |
| % over line | 38% | 40% | 35% | 74% | 65% | 83% | 77% | 72% | 83% |
| % under line | 62% | 60% | 65% | 26% | 35% | 17% | 23% | 28% | 17% |
Rio Ave| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.37 | 0.73 | 0.50 | 0.93 | 0.25 | 0.56 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.20 | 1.40 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.31 | 0.46 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
FC Porto| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.27 | 0.94 | 0.12 | 0.64 | 0.43 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (5) | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (25) | 0.84 | 0.32 | 1.08 | 0.15 | 0.58 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 77% (+47pp vs league) | |||||
Rio Ave| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.87 | 0.50 | 0.71 | 0.69 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.00 | 1.40 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.67 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.72 | 0.76 | 0.58 | 0.67 | 0.85 | 0.85 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+17pp vs league) | |||||
FC Porto| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.40 | 0.81 | 0.25 | 0.79 | 0.57 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (5) | 0.20 | 0.80 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (25) | 0.92 | 0.32 | 0.92 | 0.23 | 0.92 | 0.42 |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+41pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 92.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 2.5 cards | 90.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 84.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 79.3% | 1.24 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.24 | +3.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 78.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 73.3% | 1.45 | 1.45 | - | - | - | - | +11.0% | ✗ Miss |
| Under 11.5 corners | 72.2% | 1.33 | 1.35 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.31 | - | +3.5% | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 19/09/25 | H | 0-3 | |
| 03/02/25 | H | 2-2 | |
| 24/08/24 | A | 2-0 | |
| 03/02/24 | A | 0-0 | |
| 28/08/23 | H | 1-2 | |
| 18/02/23 | A | 1-0 | |
| 28/08/22 | H | 3-1 |
Rio Ave| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 11/05/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 17/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 15/03/26 | H | 2-1 |
FC Porto| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 16/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 09/04/26 | H | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC Porto | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 9 | 0 | +9 | 2.2 | 100% | 25% | 0% | 11.0 | 75% | 1.7 | 33% | 22.5 | 75% | 467 | 214 | 105 | 148 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 55% |
| 2 |  Sporting CP | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 5.2 | 0% | 4.2 | 50% | 24.0 | 50% | 414 | 146 | 91 | 176 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 62% |
| 3 |  Arouca | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 2.5 | 75% | 50% | 25% | 8.5 | 25% | 4.8 | 50% | 19.0 | 25% | 28 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 50% |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 4 | 8 | 50% | 2.0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 2.0 | 50% | 25% | 25% | 9.5 | 50% | 3.8 | 75% | 27.5 | 100% | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 48% |
| 5 |  Benfica | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 4.7 | 100% | 100% | 67% | 8.3 | 33% | 3.7 | 67% | 25.3 | 100% | 357 | 172 | 77 | 108 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 58% |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 1.0 | 33% | 0% | 0% | 7.7 | 0% | 4.3 | 67% | 24.7 | 100% | 29 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 50% |
| 7 |  Maritimo | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.8 | 75% | 75% | 25% | 7.0 | 0% | 4.5 | 50% | 26.2 | 75% | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 1.5 | 1.2 | - |
| 8 |  Estrela | 3 | 5 | 33% | 1.7 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 4.3 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 6.0 | 0% | 4.7 | 67% | 23.3 | 67% | 20 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 47% |
| 9 |  SC Braga | 2 | 4 | 50% | 2.0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 5.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 100% | 32.0 | 100% | 165 | 41 | 56 | 68 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 63% |
| 10 |  Nacional | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 50% | 8.2 | 25% | 4.2 | 50% | 25.5 | 75% | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 11 |  Moreirense | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | 6.3 | 0% | 5.3 | 100% | 28.3 | 67% | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 50% |
| 12 |  Guimaraes | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 2.0 | 25% | 25% | 25% | 6.0 | 0% | 6.0 | 75% | 26.0 | 75% | 46 | 22 | 11 | 12 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 51% |
| 13 | Rio Ave | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2.2 | 75% | 25% | 25% | 8.2 | 25% | 3.0 | 33% | 19.8 | 50% | 37 | 8 | 8 | 21 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 47% |
| 14 |  Famalicao | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.5 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1.5 | 50% | 25% | 0% | 9.5 | 50% | 4.0 | 50% | 28.2 | 100% | 57 | 16 | 20 | 22 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 51% |
| 15 |  Academico Viseu | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.5 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 50% | 7.2 | 25% | 4.5 | 75% | 28.8 | 100% | 16 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 16 |  Alverca | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.5 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 50% | 8.2 | 50% | 4.2 | 50% | 20.8 | 75% | 39 | 15 | 6 | 18 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 45% |
| 17 |  Estoril | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2.2 | 100% | 25% | 0% | 10.5 | 50% | 3.2 | 25% | 25.5 | 100% | 42 | 24 | 8 | 10 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 53% |
| 18 |  Casa Pia | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 11 | -11 | 2.8 | 50% | 25% | 25% | 6.0 | 0% | 3.5 | 75% | 27.0 | 100% | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 0.0 | 2.8 | 41% |