Rotherham vs West Brom Result & Analysis

Rotherham’s defensive record at home is shaky, conceding 1.6 goals on average against stronger opposition, while scoring only 0.8. West Brom, on the other hand, have been more resilient away, keeping their own numbers in check. The model therefore favours an away win, with a 38% probability, and a 31% chance of a draw and a 31% chance of a home win. The expected total goals is 2.2, with the most likely total of two goals (28% probability). The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.7% chance. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.8%), Under 5.5 (97.4%), Home under 2.5 goals (91.1%). The model also lists Under 4.5 (92.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.8% but missed), and Away under 2.5 goals (88.3% but missed). Rotherham entered the game after a draw, while West Brom came off a defeat.

Rotherham’s win over Chesterfield had extended their recent form, but West Brom’s five-game run of victories now proved decisive. The final score was 1-4, an away win that matched the model’s favourite and its 38% probability. The predicted total of 2.2 goals was far below the actual five goals, a clear over-performance. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 goals hit at 99.8%, Under 6.5 hit at 99.2%, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 97.8%, Under 5.5 hit at 97.4%, Home under 2.5 goals hit at 91.1%. However, Away under 3.5 goals missed at 96.8%, Under 4.5 missed at 92.4%, and Away under 2.5 goals missed at 88.3%. The predictions reflected a heavy-handed West Brom performance, leaving the model’s call correct.