This opponent (Sampdoria) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sampdoria
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.50
1.40
1.33
0.73
1.67
vs Stronger (18)
0.78
1.89
1.33
1.56
0.22
2.22
vs Similar (10)
1.50
0.90
1.60
0.80
1.40
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Salernitana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.8%
Under 1.5
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.7%
@ 1.99-3.3%
Under 2.5
55.3%
@ 1.84+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
23.5%
Under 3.5
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.4%
No
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
0-0
9.8%
1-0
9.6%
0-1
8.7%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
7.6%
2-0
7.0%
0-2
5.9%
Salernitana goals ↓
Sampdoria goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.8%
8.7%
5.9%
2.3%
0.7%
1
9.6%
14%
7.6%
3.0%
0.9%
2
7.0%
8.3%
4.9%
1.9%
0.6%
3
3.0%
3.6%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.0%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Salernitana goals (down), columns = Sampdoria goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Napoli
2.37
Lazio
1.95
Inter
1.89
Juventus
1.89
AC Milan
1.84
Atalanta
1.68
AS Roma
1.66
Fiorentina
1.47
Bologna
1.42
Torino
1.39
Monza
1.37
Udinese
1.21
Sassuolo
1.18
Empoli
1.13
Salernitana
1.11
Lecce
0.95
Hellas Verona
0.87
Spezia
0.79
Cremonese
0.71
Sampdoria
0.50
Salernitana is 0.61 points better than Sampdoria in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Napoli
2.03
Inter
1.87
Atalanta
1.74
AC Milan
1.68
Lazio
1.58
Juventus
1.47
Fiorentina
1.39
Bologna
1.39
AS Roma
1.32
Salernitana
1.26
Monza
1.26
Udinese
1.24
Sassuolo
1.24
Torino
1.11
Empoli
0.97
Cremonese
0.95
Hellas Verona
0.87
Lecce
0.87
Spezia
0.82
Sampdoria
0.63
Salernitana is 0.63 goals better than Sampdoria in terms of goals scored per game (1.26 vs 0.63).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Napoli
0.74
Lazio
0.79
Juventus
0.87
AS Roma
1.00
Torino
1.08
Inter
1.11
Fiorentina
1.13
AC Milan
1.13
Lecce
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Atalanta
1.26
Bologna
1.29
Empoli
1.29
Monza
1.37
Hellas Verona
1.54
Sassuolo
1.61
Salernitana
1.63
Spezia
1.67
Cremonese
1.82
Sampdoria
1.87
Salernitana is 0.24 goals better than Sampdoria in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 1.87).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Salernitana
For 5.7 · Against 5.4 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 4.0 · Against 3.1 · Total 7.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.1 · Against 16.4 · Total 30.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sampdoria
For 3.4 · Against 4.0 · Total 7.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 15.2 · Total 28.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Salernitana
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.5
10.7
5.0
4.9
5.0
27.9
28.7
27.2
vs Stronger (45)
10.9
10.5
11.3
5.0
5.0
5.0
27.3
28.7
25.6
vs Similar (5)
8.0
10.0
7.5
4.6
4.0
4.8
33.2
27.0
34.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
69%
67%
71%
72%
72%
72%
85%
96%
75%
% under line
31%
33%
29%
28%
28%
28%
15%
4%
25%
This opponent (Sampdoria) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sampdoria
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.4
10.0
4.3
4.5
4.1
26.8
27.1
26.5
vs Stronger (30)
9.6
10.1
9.2
3.8
3.9
3.6
24.9
25.9
23.9
vs Similar (17)
9.6
8.6
10.9
5.2
5.1
5.4
29.5
27.4
31.8
vs Weaker (3)
10.3
7.0
12.0
4.3
8.0
2.5
30.0
41.0
24.5
% over line
46%
42%
50%
60%
65%
54%
85%
92%
79%
% under line
54%
58%
50%
40%
35%
46%
15%
8%
21%
This opponent (Salernitana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Empoli
10.8
Salernitana
10.4
Udinese
10.2
Monza
10.2
Sassuolo
10.1
AS Roma
10.0
Inter
9.8
Cremonese
9.6
Sampdoria
9.6
Juventus
9.6
AC Milan
9.5
Lecce
9.5
Hellas Verona
9.5
Bologna
9.4
Torino
9.3
Atalanta
9.2
Spezia
9.2
Napoli
9.0
Lazio
8.6
Fiorentina
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
AS Roma
5.8
Fiorentina
5.5
Lazio
5.3
Lecce
5.3
Cremonese
5.3
Salernitana
5.1
Monza
5.1
Torino
5.0
Udinese
4.9
Hellas Verona
4.9
Bologna
4.9
Atalanta
4.8
Napoli
4.7
Juventus
4.7
Sassuolo
4.6
Spezia
4.6
Empoli
4.5
AC Milan
4.5
Sampdoria
4.4
Inter
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Monza
31.3
Torino
30.1
Lecce
30.0
Cremonese
29.4
Hellas Verona
28.7
Salernitana
28.1
Udinese
27.8
Fiorentina
27.7
Juventus
27.3
Spezia
26.9
Sampdoria
26.9
Atalanta
26.6
Empoli
26.5
Bologna
26.1
AS Roma
26.0
Napoli
26.0
Sassuolo
25.9
AC Milan
25.7
Lazio
24.3
Inter
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
51.9%
Under 9.5
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
70.4%
Under 3.5
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
86.5%
Under 21.5
13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Salernitana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.07
0.40
1.20
0.47
0.93
vs Stronger (30)
0.43
1.07
0.40
1.20
0.47
0.93
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Sampdoria) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sampdoria
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.73
0.73
0.73
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (18)
0.33
0.94
0.56
0.89
0.11
1.00
vs Similar (10)
1.00
0.30
1.00
0.20
1.00
0.40
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Salernitana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Salernitana over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Salernitana over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Salernitana over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sampdoria over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sampdoria over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sampdoria over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Salernitana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.83
0.40
0.73
0.27
0.93
vs Stronger (30)
0.33
0.83
0.40
0.73
0.27
0.93
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Sampdoria) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sampdoria
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.77
0.67
0.60
0.20
0.93
vs Stronger (18)
0.44
0.94
0.78
0.67
0.11
1.22
vs Similar (10)
0.50
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Salernitana) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Salernitana over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Salernitana over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Salernitana over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sampdoria over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sampdoria over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sampdoria over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Salernitana
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Boulaye Dia42%
Antonio Candreva20%
Krzysztof Piątek12%
Tonny Vilhena12%
William Troost-Ekong11%
Lassana Coulibaly9%
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia8%
Federico Bonazzoli8%
Lorenzo Pirola8%
Pasquale Mazzocchi7%
Federico Fazio7%
Grīgorīs Kastanos7%
Erik Botheim4%
Guillermo Ochoa0%
Dylan Bronn0%
Diego Valencia0%
Domagoj Bradarić0%
Junior Sambia0%
Ivan Radovanović0%
Giulio Maggiore0%
Luigi Sepe0%
Norbert Gyömbér0%
Matteo Lovato0%
Emil Bohinen0%
Domen Črnigoj0%
Flavius Daniliuc0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Flavius Daniliuc37%
Lassana Coulibaly34%
Dylan Bronn21%
Norbert Gyömbér19%
Luigi Sepe18%
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia17%
Domagoj Bradarić16%
Lorenzo Pirola15%
Krzysztof Piątek15%
Tonny Vilhena15%
Federico Fazio14%
Grīgorīs Kastanos14%
Domen Črnigoj14%
Junior Sambia14%
Giulio Maggiore12%
Boulaye Dia12%
Matteo Lovato12%
William Troost-Ekong11%
Ivan Radovanović10%
Diego Valencia8%
Pasquale Mazzocchi7%
Erik Botheim7%
Antonio Candreva6%
Guillermo Ochoa5%
Federico Bonazzoli4%
Emil Bohinen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Krzysztof Piątek15%
Boulaye Dia15%
Antonio Candreva11%
Pasquale Mazzocchi11%
Erik Botheim11%
Domagoj Bradarić10%
Lassana Coulibaly9%
Flavius Daniliuc7%
Junior Sambia5%
Federico Bonazzoli4%
Norbert Gyömbér4%
Grīgorīs Kastanos4%
Tonny Vilhena3%
Federico Fazio0%
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia0%
Guillermo Ochoa0%
William Troost-Ekong0%
Dylan Bronn0%
Diego Valencia0%
Ivan Radovanović0%
Giulio Maggiore0%
Luigi Sepe0%
Matteo Lovato0%
Emil Bohinen0%
Domen Črnigoj0%
Lorenzo Pirola0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Krzysztof Piątek18%
Antonio Candreva9%
Federico Bonazzoli8%
Boulaye Dia6%
Tonny Vilhena3%
Lassana Coulibaly3%
Federico Fazio0%
Grīgorīs Kastanos0%
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia0%
Erik Botheim0%
Guillermo Ochoa0%
William Troost-Ekong0%
Dylan Bronn0%
Diego Valencia0%
Domagoj Bradarić0%
Junior Sambia0%
Ivan Radovanović0%
Giulio Maggiore0%
Luigi Sepe0%
Norbert Gyömbér0%
Pasquale Mazzocchi0%
Matteo Lovato0%
Emil Bohinen0%
Domen Črnigoj0%
Flavius Daniliuc0%
Lorenzo Pirola0%
Sampdoria
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Manolo Gabbiadini14%
Abdelhamid Sabiri11%
Filip Đuričić9%
Jesé Rodríguez9%
Alessandro Zanoli9%
Francesco Caputo7%
Omar Colley6%
Tommaso Augello5%
Sam Lammers5%
Fabio Quagliarella4%
Bruno Amione4%
Mehdi Léris3%
Jeison Murillo0%
Harry Winks0%
Marios Oikonomou0%
Tomás Rincón0%
Bartosz Bereszyński0%
Michaël Cuisance0%
Emil Audero0%
Alex Ferrari0%
Nicola Murru0%
Ronaldo Vieira0%
Fabio Depaoli0%
Koray Günter0%
Bram Nuytinck0%
Ignacio Pussetto0%
Valerio Verre0%
Nicola Ravaglia0%
Gonzalo Villar0%
Martin Turk0%
Gerard Yepes0%
Emirhan İlkhan0%
Daniele Montevago0%
Flavio Paoletti0%
Lorenzo Malagrida0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marios Oikonomou50%
Mehdi Léris41%
Gerard Yepes40%
Bruno Amione35%
Fabio Depaoli33%
Lorenzo Malagrida33%
Omar Colley31%
Filip Đuričić28%
Abdelhamid Sabiri28%
Valerio Verre28%
Jeison Murillo25%
Alex Ferrari25%
Bram Nuytinck21%
Tomás Rincón21%
Koray Günter20%
Ignacio Pussetto20%
Ronaldo Vieira19%
Manolo Gabbiadini17%
Daniele Montevago17%
Nicola Murru15%
Alessandro Zanoli14%
Gonzalo Villar13%
Harry Winks10%
Fabio Quagliarella9%
Michaël Cuisance8%
Flavio Paoletti8%
Tommaso Augello8%
Bartosz Bereszyński7%
Sam Lammers5%
Emil Audero4%
Jesé Rodríguez0%
Francesco Caputo0%
Nicola Ravaglia0%
Martin Turk0%
Emirhan İlkhan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tommaso Augello11%
Jesé Rodríguez9%
Alessandro Zanoli9%
Tomás Rincón6%
Manolo Gabbiadini6%
Bram Nuytinck5%
Sam Lammers5%
Fabio Quagliarella4%
Bruno Amione4%
Mehdi Léris3%
Jeison Murillo0%
Harry Winks0%
Marios Oikonomou0%
Bartosz Bereszyński0%
Abdelhamid Sabiri0%
Michaël Cuisance0%
Emil Audero0%
Omar Colley0%
Alex Ferrari0%
Nicola Murru0%
Ronaldo Vieira0%
Filip Đuričić0%
Fabio Depaoli0%
Koray Günter0%
Ignacio Pussetto0%
Francesco Caputo0%
Valerio Verre0%
Nicola Ravaglia0%
Gonzalo Villar0%
Martin Turk0%
Gerard Yepes0%
Emirhan İlkhan0%
Daniele Montevago0%
Flavio Paoletti0%
Lorenzo Malagrida0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Abdelhamid Sabiri22%
Manolo Gabbiadini20%
Daniele Montevago17%
Fabio Quagliarella13%
Francesco Caputo7%
Sam Lammers5%
Harry Winks5%
Filip Đuričić3%
Jeison Murillo0%
Marios Oikonomou0%
Jesé Rodríguez0%
Tomás Rincón0%
Bartosz Bereszyński0%
Michaël Cuisance0%
Emil Audero0%
Omar Colley0%
Alex Ferrari0%
Nicola Murru0%
Ronaldo Vieira0%
Fabio Depaoli0%
Mehdi Léris0%
Koray Günter0%
Bram Nuytinck0%
Ignacio Pussetto0%
Tommaso Augello0%
Valerio Verre0%
Nicola Ravaglia0%
Gonzalo Villar0%
Bruno Amione0%
Alessandro Zanoli0%
Martin Turk0%
Gerard Yepes0%
Emirhan İlkhan0%
Flavio Paoletti0%
Lorenzo Malagrida0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Italy: Serie A 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
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Napoli
Lazio
Inter
Juventus
AC Milan
Atalanta
AS Roma
Fiorentina
Bologna
Torino
Monza
Udinese
Sassuolo
Empoli
Lecce
Hellas Verona
Spezia
Cremonese