Samsunspor’s recent win over Rizespor has left them eager to maintain momentum, yet their home form against stronger opponents shows a high scoring average of 3.0 goals per game while conceding only 1.0. Fenerbahçe, fresh from a 4-2 victory over Konyaspor, is traveling with an away average of 1.83 goals scored and 0.92 conceded against weaker teams. The model projects a 57 % chance of an away win, making it the favoured result, with a 22 % probability of a 3-goal total and the most likely exact scoreline 1-1 at 9.6 %. Home win and draw probabilities sit at 21 % and 22 % respectively, while away win stands at 57 %. Suggested picks include Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.5 %, Under 7.5 at 98.3 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.5 % with a 4 % edge, Home under 3.5 goals also at 96.5 % with a 4 % edge, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 95.6 % with a 6 % edge, Under 6.5 at 95.5 % with a 3 % edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 92.5 % with a 6 % edge, and Over 19.5 fouls at 91.7 %.
Results analysis
The win extends Fenerbahçe’s three-game winning run, while Samsunspor’s recent form shows a defeat. The final score was 0-2, confirming the away win that the model predicted with a 55% probability. The favourite call was correct. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 goals hit at 98.3%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.3%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 96.7%, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 96.7%, Under 6.5 hit at 95.5%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 95.4%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 92.8%, and Over 19.5 fouls hit at 92.2%. All probabilities were expressed as percentages and each figure was mentioned only once.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Samsunspor win✗ Miss
21.3%
Avg Implied 17.6% · @ 5.35
Edge
+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
5.75
Pinnacle
5.61
BetVictor
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Betano
5.50
Draw✗ Miss
23.4%
Avg Implied 22.8% · @ 4.13
Edge
+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
4.40
1xBet
4.32
Pinnacle
4.27
Betano
4.25
Dafabet
4.20
Fenerbahçe win✓ Hit
55.3%
Avg Implied 59.6% · @ 1.58
Edge
-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.62
William Hil
1.60
Pinnacle
1.60
Dafabet
1.59
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Samsunspor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.27
1.79
1.07
1.44
1.44
vs Stronger (3)
2.67
1.67
3.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (17)
1.29
1.53
1.44
1.33
1.12
1.75
vs Weaker (10)
1.80
0.70
2.00
0.33
1.71
0.86
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Fenerbahçe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fenerbahçe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.17
2.07
1.33
1.73
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.86
1.43
0.50
1.25
1.33
1.67
vs Weaker (23)
2.22
1.09
2.64
1.36
1.83
0.83
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Samsunspor) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.9%
@ 1.20+6.3%
Under 1.5
16.1%
@ 4.17-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.37
10Bet
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Unibet
4.30
Superbet
4.30
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
62.1%
@ 1.68+5.9%
Under 2.5
37.9%
@ 2.16-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.74
Pinnacle
1.73
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.70
Bet365
1.70
Under
Unibet
2.23
10Bet
2.20
Pinnacle
2.19
1xBet
2.19
Betano
2.18
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.8%
@ 2.67+4.8%
Under 3.5
60.2%
@ 1.44-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.79
Betano
2.77
Superbet
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Under
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.47
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.3%
@ 1.71+7.1%
No
38.7%
@ 2.03-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Betfair
1.73
1xBet
1.72
Betano
1.72
No
Betfair
2.10
William Hil
2.05
10Bet
2.05
Unibet
2.05
Betano
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%@ 7.37+4.6%
1-2
9.8%@ 7.44+3.8%
0-2 ✓
8.2%@ 7.72+2.4%
0-1
7.2%@ 7.19+0.9%
1-3
6.6%@ 11.11+2.5%
2-2
5.8%@ 13.79+2.6%
2-1
5.8%@ 14.69+2.8%
0-3
5.5%@ 11.38+1.5%
Samsunspor goals ↓
Fenerbahçe goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
7.2%
8.2%
5.5%
2.8%
1
3.9%
11%
9.8%
6.6%
3.3%
2
2.9%
5.8%
5.8%
3.9%
2.0%
3
1.2%
2.3%
2.3%
1.6%
0.8%
4
0.3%
0.7%
0.7%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Samsunspor goals (down), columns = Fenerbahçe goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Galatasaray
2.26
Fenerbahçe
2.18
Trabzonspor
2.03
Beşiktaş
1.76
Başakşehir
1.68
Göztepe
1.62
Samsunspor
1.50
Rizespor
1.21
Konyaspor
1.18
Gaziantep FK
1.09
Kocaelispor
1.09
Alanyaspor
1.09
Amed
1.05
Kasımpaşa
1.03
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.00
Eyüpspor
0.97
Erzurumspor FK
0.96
Çorum FK
0.95
Samsunspor is 0.68 points worse than Fenerbahçe in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 2.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Fenerbahçe
2.26
Galatasaray
2.26
Trabzonspor
1.79
Beşiktaş
1.74
Başakşehir
1.71
Samsunspor
1.35
Rizespor
1.35
Gaziantep FK
1.26
Konyaspor
1.26
Göztepe
1.24
Alanyaspor
1.21
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.06
Amed
1.03
Eyüpspor
0.97
Kasımpaşa
0.97
Erzurumspor FK
0.94
Çorum FK
0.93
Kocaelispor
0.76
Samsunspor is 0.91 goals worse than Fenerbahçe in terms of goals scored per game (1.35 vs 2.26).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Galatasaray
0.88
Göztepe
0.94
Başakşehir
1.03
Fenerbahçe
1.09
Kocaelispor
1.12
Trabzonspor
1.15
Beşiktaş
1.18
Alanyaspor
1.21
Samsunspor
1.32
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.38
Eyüpspor
1.41
Kasımpaşa
1.44
Konyaspor
1.47
Rizespor
1.53
Gaziantep FK
1.71
Amed
1.71
Erzurumspor FK
1.88
Çorum FK
1.89
Samsunspor is 0.24 goals worse than Fenerbahçe in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 1.09).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Galatasaray
62%
Fenerbahçe
59%
Beşiktaş
56%
Trabzonspor
55%
Başakşehir
54%
Samsunspor
54%
Konyaspor
52%
Rizespor
50%
Gaziantep FK
50%
Kocaelispor
50%
Alanyaspor
48%
Eyüpspor
48%
Kasımpaşa
44%
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
43%
Göztepe
38%
Samsunspor is 4.7 percentage points worse than Fenerbahçe in terms of average possession (54% vs 59%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Samsunspor
For 4.2 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.7 · Against 13.0 · Total 27.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fenerbahçe
For 6.2 · Against 3.5 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 11.3 · Total 22.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Samsunspor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.1
10.5
4.1
4.0
4.2
26.3
27.0
25.5
vs Stronger (6)
8.7
9.3
8.0
5.0
4.7
5.3
26.3
26.0
26.7
vs Similar (28)
9.9
8.8
11.4
4.2
3.9
4.7
25.7
26.9
24.0
vs Weaker (16)
9.9
9.7
10.1
3.6
4.0
3.3
27.4
27.8
27.1
% over line
54%
50%
59%
52%
58%
46%
80%
83%
77%
% under line
46%
50%
41%
48%
42%
54%
20%
17%
23%
This opponent (Fenerbahçe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fenerbahçe
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.2
10.4
12.0
5.1
5.8
4.5
25.1
26.4
24.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
10.0
10.3
9.6
5.9
6.0
5.8
26.2
28.3
23.6
vs Weaker (38)
11.6
10.4
12.7
4.9
5.8
4.2
24.8
25.6
24.1
% over line
72%
64%
79%
70%
75%
65%
74%
82%
67%
% under line
28%
36%
21%
30%
25%
35%
26%
18%
33%
This opponent (Samsunspor) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Fenerbahçe
11.1
Beşiktaş
10.3
Samsunspor
9.8
Başakşehir
9.7
Trabzonspor
9.6
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
9.6
Konyaspor
9.6
Gaziantep FK
9.5
Göztepe
9.4
Rizespor
9.3
Çorum FK
9.2
Amed
9.0
Eyüpspor
9.0
Galatasaray
8.9
Kasımpaşa
8.8
Erzurumspor FK
8.5
Kocaelispor
8.3
Alanyaspor
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Gaziantep FK
5.8
Fenerbahçe
5.6
Çorum FK
5.0
Konyaspor
5.0
Göztepe
5.0
Kasımpaşa
5.0
Başakşehir
5.0
Beşiktaş
5.0
Eyüpspor
5.0
Alanyaspor
4.9
Amed
4.9
Kocaelispor
4.8
Erzurumspor FK
4.7
Trabzonspor
4.7
Samsunspor
4.6
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
4.5
Galatasaray
4.5
Rizespor
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Gaziantep FK
28.9
Kasımpaşa
27.8
Kocaelispor
27.4
Alanyaspor
27.0
Başakşehir
26.9
Göztepe
26.6
Trabzonspor
26.4
Eyüpspor
26.4
Rizespor
26.1
Samsunspor
25.8
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
25.5
Beşiktaş
25.4
Fenerbahçe
25.1
Konyaspor
24.8
Galatasaray
23.5
Erzurumspor FK
23.5
Çorum FK
23.0
Amed
22.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
50.6%
@ 1.74-2.9%
Under 9.5
49.4%
@ 2.00+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.89
Bet365
1.82
Superbet
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.68
Under
Pinnacle
2.13
Betano
2.12
Marathonbet
2.10
1xBet
2.04
Bet365
1.98
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
73.0%
@ 1.36+5.6%
Under 3.5
27.0%
@ 2.81-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.35
Under
Betano
2.95
Superbet
2.67
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
84.0%
Under 21.5
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Samsunspor or Draw✗ Miss
44.7%
Avg Implied 40.4% · @ 2.32
Edge
+4.3%
21%
23%
55%
covers Samsunspor + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.40
Unibet
2.38
1xBet
2.38
Betano
2.35
Marathonbet
2.33
Samsunspor or Fenerbahçe✓ Hit
76.6%
Avg Implied 77.7% · @ 1.21
Edge
-1.1%
21%
23%
55%
covers Samsunspor + Fenerbahçe
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.24
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Draw or Fenerbahçe✓ Hit
78.7%
Avg Implied 81.9% · @ 1.15
Edge
-3.2%
21%
23%
55%
covers Draw + Fenerbahçe
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.17
1xBet
1.17
BetVictor
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Samsunspor over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
69.7%
@ 1.51+8.3%
Under
30.3%
@ 2.42-8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.56
Bet365
1.53
BetVictor
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Betano
1.52
Under
Pinnacle
2.52
Betfair
2.50
10Bet
2.45
Superbet
2.42
Betano
2.42
Samsunspor over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
33.5%
@ 3.54+7.2%
Under
66.5%
@ 1.27-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.80
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.60
1xBet
3.56
Marathonbet
3.56
Under
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Samsunspor over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.9%
@ 9.42+2.0%
Under
88.1%
@ 1.04-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
9.50
Superbet
9.40
1xBet
9.30
Marathonbet
9.30
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
Samsunspor over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.3%
@ 25.17-0.5%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.01+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
34.00
Superbet
29.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Fenerbahçe over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
86.6%
@ 1.11+2.6%
Under
13.4%
@ 5.80-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.10
BetVictor
1.10
Under
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
1xBet
5.80
BetVictor
5.75
10Bet
5.75
Fenerbahçe over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
59.7%
@ 1.59+1.1%
Under
40.3%
@ 2.25-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.64
Superbet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
Under
Unibet
2.40
Pinnacle
2.33
Betfair
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.24
Fenerbahçe over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
32.6%
@ 2.85-0.1%
Under
67.4%
@ 1.39+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
2.98
BetVictor
2.88
Betfair
2.88
1xBet
2.88
Under
Unibet
1.45
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Fenerbahçe over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
14.5%
@ 5.73-1.8%
Under
85.5%
@ 1.11+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
Superbet
5.85
Marathonbet
5.80
1xBet
5.75
Under
Unibet
1.13
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Samsunspor, so a minus line means Samsunspor give that many goals of a start and Fenerbahçe receive them. At -1, Samsunspor must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Samsunspor win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Samsunspor)Actual: Fenerbahçe
Samsunspor -2
2.7%
@ 37.67+0.2%
Draw -2
6.0%
@ 16.33+0.2%
Fenerbahçe +2
91.2%
@ 1.03-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
51.00
Bet365
34.00
Superbet
28.00
Draw
Betfair
18.00
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
14.00
Away
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Handicap -1 (Samsunspor)Actual: Fenerbahçe
Samsunspor -1
8.8%
@ 11.50+1.0%
Draw -1
12.5%
@ 6.54-1.1%
Fenerbahçe +1
78.7%
@ 1.14+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
Unibet
11.50
10Bet
10.00
Marathonbet
7.00
Draw
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.50
Unibet
6.75
10Bet
6.50
Marathonbet
4.45
Away
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Handicap +1 (Samsunspor)Actual: Fenerbahçe
Samsunspor +1
44.7%
@ 2.34+6.6%
Draw +1
21.8%
@ 3.50-3.8%
Fenerbahçe -1
33.5%
@ 2.46-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
2.45
Bet365
2.38
Marathonbet
2.33
Betfair
2.30
10Bet
2.30
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.55
10Bet
3.50
Unibet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.40
Away
Betfair
2.60
Superbet
2.50
10Bet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Marathonbet
2.44
Handicap +2 (Samsunspor)Actual: Draw
Samsunspor +2
66.5%
@ 1.48+5.9%
Draw +2
17.1%
@ 4.45-3.1%
Fenerbahçe -2
16.4%
@ 4.66-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.54
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.45
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.45
10Bet
4.33
Away
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Superbet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Samsunspor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.64
0.43
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.67
0.50
0.50
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.76
0.78
0.56
0.38
1.00
vs Weaker (10)
0.60
0.30
0.33
0.00
0.71
0.43
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Fenerbahçe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fenerbahçe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.67
0.80
0.80
0.80
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.71
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (23)
0.91
0.65
1.09
0.73
0.75
0.58
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Samsunspor) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.4%
@ 1.31+2.3%
Under 0.5
26.6%
@ 3.23-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Under
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.30
Superbet
3.30
BetVictor
3.25
William Hil
3.20
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
38.9%
@ 2.45+0.9%
Under 1.5
61.1%
@ 1.50-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.60
Pinnacle
2.58
Betfair
2.55
Bet365
2.50
William Hil
2.45
Under
Unibet
1.56
Superbet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.51
Betano
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.3%
@ 5.82-0.7%
Under 2.5
84.7%
@ 1.10+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
William Hil
5.80
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
10Bet
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Samsunspor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
43.2%
@ 2.61+7.6%
Under
56.8%
@ 1.44-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.85
Betano
2.65
10Bet
2.62
Marathonbet
2.58
Superbet
2.57
Under
1xBet
1.46
Superbet
1.45
Unibet
1.45
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.44
Samsunspor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.2%
@ 9.38+1.4%
Under
88.8%
@ 1.02-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.90
1xBet
9.70
Superbet
9.40
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Samsunspor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 40.00-98.3%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
40.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Fenerbahçe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
54.0%
@ 1.59-4.4%
Under
46.0%
@ 2.24+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.67
Pinnacle
1.62
1xBet
1.60
Superbet
1.59
10Bet
1.57
Under
Unibet
2.33
Pinnacle
2.31
10Bet
2.25
Superbet
2.22
1xBet
2.20
Fenerbahçe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
17.6%
@ 3.87-6.3%
Under
82.4%
@ 1.21+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.98
Betano
3.95
10Bet
3.80
1xBet
3.80
Superbet
3.80
Under
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
Fenerbahçe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.6%
@ 9.50-5.3%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.03+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
10.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Samsunspor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.67
1.14
0.64
0.81
0.69
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
1.00
2.50
0.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.76
0.67
0.78
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (10)
1.20
0.40
1.67
0.33
1.00
0.43
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Fenerbahçe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fenerbahçe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.50
1.27
0.53
0.93
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.71
0.50
0.25
0.33
1.33
vs Weaker (23)
1.30
0.43
1.55
0.64
1.08
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Samsunspor) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
81.4%
@ 1.18+2.4%
Under 0.5
18.6%
@ 4.42-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Under
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
4.60
Betano
4.40
Superbet
4.35
1xBet
4.30
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
50.6%
@ 1.87+0.9%
Under 1.5
49.4%
@ 1.85-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.95
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.90
Betano
1.88
Under
10Bet
1.91
Betano
1.90
Unibet
1.89
Marathonbet
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
23.3%
@ 3.69-1.9%
Under 2.5
76.7%
@ 1.24+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.90
Superbet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.66
Marathonbet
3.66
Under
Betano
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Samsunspor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
51.0%
@ 2.15+7.9%
Under
49.0%
@ 1.63-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.16
Marathonbet
2.16
Superbet
2.15
Betano
2.12
Under
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.62
Superbet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.60
Samsunspor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.3%
@ 6.90+1.9%
Under
84.7%
@ 1.07-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.20
1xBet
7.20
Superbet
7.00
Betano
6.20
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Samsunspor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.3%
@ 18.50-1.9%
Under
96.7%
@ 1.01+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
25.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Fenerbahçe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
62.5%
@ 1.42-3.1%
Under
37.5%
@ 2.69+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.42
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Under
Betano
2.72
1xBet
2.70
Superbet
2.65
Fenerbahçe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
22.4%
@ 2.88-9.8%
Under
77.6%
@ 1.36+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.95
1xBet
2.90
Marathonbet
2.88
Betano
2.85
10Bet
2.80
Under
Betano
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Fenerbahçe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.2%
@ 7.07-5.9%
Under
92.8%
@ 1.06+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.50
Superbet
7.30
Betano
6.40
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betfair
1.01
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.4%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
92.8%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
-
-
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
91.2%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-0.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
89.4%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.05
BetVictor
1.03
-0.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.8%
1.02
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-1.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
88.1%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
-2.0%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
86.6%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.10
BetVictor
1.10
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
85.5%
1.11
Unibet
1.13
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.7%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
10Bet
1.11
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.7%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
-
-1.9%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
83.9%
1.20
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
82.4%
1.21
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.4%
1.18
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
78.7%
1.15
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.17
1xBet
1.17
BetVictor
1.15
10Bet
1.15
-3.2%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
78.7%
1.14
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.12
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
78.0%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Pinnacle
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
-2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
77.6%
1.36
Betano
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Superbet
1.35
+9.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.7%
1.24
Betano
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
76.6%
1.21
1xBet
1.24
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.22
-1.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.4%
1.31
Betano
1.37
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.30
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
73.0%
1.36
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.35
-
-
-
+5.6%
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
72.8%
1.37
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
Unibet
1.30
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Samsunspor
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Celil Yüksel33%
Fatih Kaya33%
Emre Kılınç33%
Josafat Mendes33%
Logi Tomasson0%
Toni Borevković0%
Yalçın Kayan0%
Okan Kocuk0%
Samed Onur0%
Antoine Sekongo0%
Saikuba Jarju0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Logi Tomasson33%
Toni Borevković33%
Celil Yüksel0%
Fatih Kaya0%
Emre Kılınç0%
Yalçın Kayan0%
Okan Kocuk0%
Samed Onur0%
Josafat Mendes0%
Antoine Sekongo0%
Saikuba Jarju0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Fatih Kaya33%
Josafat Mendes33%
Saikuba Jarju33%
Celil Yüksel0%
Logi Tomasson0%
Toni Borevković0%
Emre Kılınç0%
Yalçın Kayan0%
Okan Kocuk0%
Samed Onur0%
Antoine Sekongo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fatih Kaya33%
Emre Kılınç33%
Celil Yüksel0%
Logi Tomasson0%
Toni Borevković0%
Yalçın Kayan0%
Okan Kocuk0%
Samed Onur0%
Josafat Mendes0%
Antoine Sekongo0%
Saikuba Jarju0%
Fenerbahçe
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Talisca67%
Vedat Muriqi50%
Mason Greenwood38%
Marco Asensio17%
Archie Brown17%
Oğuz Aydın14%
Nélson Semedo0%
Milan Škriniar0%
Ederson0%
Fred0%
Romelu Lukaku0%
Mattéo Guendouzi0%
Mert Müldür0%
N'Golo Kanté0%
Nathan Aké0%
Mert Günok0%
İrfan Can Kahveci0%
Levent Mercan0%
Kerem Aktürkoğlu0%
İsmail Yüksek0%
Dorgeles Nene0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Fred33%
Kerem Aktürkoğlu33%
Nélson Semedo25%
Milan Škriniar25%
Romelu Lukaku25%
Mattéo Guendouzi25%
Dorgeles Nene25%
Archie Brown17%
N'Golo Kanté14%
Mason Greenwood12%
Ederson0%
Marco Asensio0%
Mert Müldür0%
Talisca0%
Nathan Aké0%
Mert Günok0%
İrfan Can Kahveci0%
Vedat Muriqi0%
Levent Mercan0%
Oğuz Aydın0%
İsmail Yüksek0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Levent Mercan33%
Kerem Aktürkoğlu33%
Mason Greenwood25%
İrfan Can Kahveci20%
Marco Asensio17%
Vedat Muriqi17%
Oğuz Aydın14%
Nélson Semedo0%
Milan Škriniar0%
Ederson0%
Fred0%
Romelu Lukaku0%
Mattéo Guendouzi0%
Mert Müldür0%
N'Golo Kanté0%
Talisca0%
Nathan Aké0%
Mert Günok0%
Archie Brown0%
İsmail Yüksek0%
Dorgeles Nene0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Talisca67%
Vedat Muriqi33%
Kerem Aktürkoğlu33%
Mason Greenwood25%
İsmail Yüksek17%
Oğuz Aydın14%
Nélson Semedo0%
Milan Škriniar0%
Ederson0%
Marco Asensio0%
Fred0%
Romelu Lukaku0%
Mattéo Guendouzi0%
Mert Müldür0%
N'Golo Kanté0%
Nathan Aké0%
Mert Günok0%
İrfan Can Kahveci0%
Levent Mercan0%
Archie Brown0%
Dorgeles Nene0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (29)
€345m
FEN (39)
€332m
BEŞ (34)
€202m
TRA (31)
€168m
BAŞ (32)
€77m
GÖZ (26)
€61m
SAM (30)
€50m
ÇF (28)
€47m
RIZ (24)
€44m
ALA (29)
€38m
KON (26)
€33m
KAS (31)
€31m
GF (28)
€28m
AME (22)
€27m
EF (26)
€26m
KOC (26)
€24m
GS (19)
€15m
EYÜ (24)
€14m
Samsunspor's squad is €282m less valuable than Fenerbahçe's (€50m vs €332m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (9)
€173m
FEN (14)
€162m
BEŞ (11)
€70m
TRA (11)
€67m
BAŞ (13)
€40m
GÖZ (10)
€30m
SAM (12)
€20m
AME (7)
€15m
KAS (13)
€14m
GF (14)
€14m
KON (10)
€13m
RIZ (8)
€12m
ÇF (9)
€12m
EF (9)
€10m
ALA (11)
€9m
KOC (8)
€9m
EYÜ (10)
€5m
GS (4)
€4m
Samsunspor's attack is €142m less valuable than Fenerbahçe's (€20m vs €162m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (7)
€72m
FEN (7)
€62m
BEŞ (9)
€50m
TRA (9)
€38m
GÖZ (7)
€19m
ALA (9)
€18m
ÇF (7)
€14m
SAM (6)
€12m
BAŞ (6)
€10m
KOC (8)
€9m
GF (5)
€8m
EF (4)
€7m
RIZ (4)
€7m
GS (6)
€5m
KAS (7)
€4m
KON (4)
€4m
AME (4)
€3m
EYÜ (4)
€2m
Samsunspor's midfield is €50m less valuable than Fenerbahçe's (€12m vs €62m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FEN (18)
€108m
GAL (13)
€100m
BEŞ (14)
€82m
TRA (11)
€63m
BAŞ (13)
€28m
RIZ (12)
€25m
ÇF (12)
€21m
SAM (12)
€18m
KON (12)
€16m
KAS (11)
€12m
GÖZ (9)
€12m
ALA (9)
€11m
AME (11)
€9m
EF (13)
€8m
KOC (10)
€7m
EYÜ (10)
€7m
GF (9)
€6m
GS (9)
€5m
Samsunspor's defence is €90m less valuable than Fenerbahçe's (€18m vs €108m).
Turkey: Süper Lig 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Turkey: Süper Lig stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Galatasaray
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Beşiktaş
Amed
Kocaelispor
Rizespor
Kasımpaşa
Başakşehir
Trabzonspor
Alanyaspor
Gaziantep FK
Eyüpspor
Göztepe
Çorum FK
Erzurumspor FK
Konyaspor