SC Braga’s home dominance is the clear driver behind the model’s 65% win probability, eclipsing the 21% draw and 14% away win odds. The Primeira Liga side’s recent unbeaten run, highlighted by a 0-0 draw against Austria Vienna, underscores their form at the venue, where they average 2.4 goals scored and only 0.7 conceded against weaker opposition. Guimaraes, on the road and facing a stronger side, struggles, averaging 1.25 goals scored and 3.5 conceded, and their last match was a 1-0 win that left them still chasing momentum.
The model predicts an average of 3.3 goals, with the most likely total being 3 goals at 22%. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0 for Braga, carrying a 9.8% chance. The suggested selections include an Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.6%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.6% with a 6% edge, Under 7.5 at 98.1%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.1%, Under 6.5 at 95.2%, Home +2 handicap at 94.8% with a 4% edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 94.3% with a 3% edge, and Over 19.5 fouls at 93.1%. The model’s selection favours a home win, reflecting Braga’s superior home form and Guimaraes’ away challenges.
Results analysis
SC Braga’s unbeaten run continued as they secured a 1-0 win over Guimaraes, extending their last-five streak. The model had picked a home win with a 65% probability, and it proved correct. Every suggested selection also hit: Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.5%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.8%, Under 7.5 at 98.1%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.1%, Under 6.5 at 95.2%, Home +2 handicap at 94.8%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 93.9%, and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 93.3%. The match finished 1-0, confirming the model’s predictions and the home side’s dominance.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
SC Braga win✓ Hit
65.1%
Avg Implied 52.2% · @ 1.81
Edge
+12.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.87
Pinnacle
1.86
Betfair
1.85
Superbet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Draw✗ Miss
20.5%
Avg Implied 26.6% · @ 3.55
Edge
-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
3.75
Dafabet
3.70
1xBet
3.64
Superbet
3.60
Unibet
3.60
Guimaraes win✗ Miss
14.4%
Avg Implied 21.2% · @ 4.46
Edge
-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
4.90
10Bet
4.65
Pinnacle
4.61
Dafabet
4.60
1xBet
4.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
SC Braga
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
0.97
2.19
0.81
1.36
1.14
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
2.00
1.50
2.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (7)
1.86
1.29
2.00
0.50
1.67
2.33
vs Weaker (20)
1.80
0.70
2.40
0.70
1.20
0.70
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Guimaraes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.40
1.41
0.94
1.00
2.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
3.14
0.33
2.67
1.25
3.50
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.62
1.00
0.60
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (15)
1.60
1.00
2.00
0.56
1.00
1.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
84.5%
@ 1.29+12.2%
Under 1.5
15.5%
@ 3.38-12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.52
Superbet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Betano
3.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
63.3%
@ 1.94+14.5%
Under 2.5
36.7%
@ 1.85-14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.02
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
SBO
1.96
Superbet
1.95
Under
1xBet
1.88
SBO
1.88
Betano
1.88
Betfair
1.87
Pinnacle
1.87
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.1%
@ 3.31+12.8%
Under 3.5
58.9%
@ 1.30-12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.49
Betfair
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.30
Under
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Bet365
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.4%
@ 1.80+5.9%
No
42.6%
@ 1.92-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.81
BetVictor
1.80
No
Betfair
2.00
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.93
10Bet
1.93
Superbet
1.92
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
9.8%@ 7.96+4.3%
2-1
9.8%@ 7.59+3.9%
1-1
9.5%@ 6.36+2.5%
1-0 ✓
7.8%@ 6.50+1.0%
3-0
7.4%@ 13.52+4.1%
3-1
7.4%@ 13.27+4.0%
2-2
4.9%@ 14.19+1.7%
0-0
4.7%@ 9.27-0.1%
SC Braga goals ↓
Guimaraes goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
3.0%
1.9%
0.6%
0.2%
1
7.8%
9.5%
4.3%
1.4%
0.4%
2
9.8%
9.8%
4.9%
1.6%
0.4%
3
7.4%
7.4%
3.7%
1.2%
0.3%
4
4.2%
4.2%
2.1%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = SC Braga goals (down), columns = Guimaraes goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.59
Sporting CP
2.41
Benfica
2.35
SC Braga
1.74
Famalicao
1.65
GIL Vicente
1.47
Moreirense
1.26
Arouca
1.24
Guimaraes
1.24
Estoril
1.15
Alverca
1.15
Maritimo
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.10
Rio Ave
1.06
Santa Clara
1.06
Nacional
1.00
Casa Pia
0.94
Estrela
0.88
SC Braga is 0.50 points better than Guimaraes in terms of average points per game (1.74 vs 1.24).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.62
Benfica
2.18
FC Porto
1.94
SC Braga
1.88
Estoril
1.59
Arouca
1.38
GIL Vicente
1.38
Famalicao
1.24
Guimaraes
1.15
Estrela
1.12
Moreirense
1.09
Nacional
1.09
Maritimo
1.08
Academico Viseu
1.06
Rio Ave
1.03
Alverca
1.03
Santa Clara
0.94
Casa Pia
0.92
SC Braga is 0.74 goals better than Guimaraes in terms of goals scored per game (1.88 vs 1.15).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.53
Sporting CP
0.71
Benfica
0.74
Famalicao
0.85
SC Braga
1.06
GIL Vicente
1.12
Santa Clara
1.21
Nacional
1.32
Moreirense
1.44
Guimaraes
1.50
Alverca
1.53
Maritimo
1.55
Academico Viseu
1.58
Casa Pia
1.58
Estrela
1.65
Estoril
1.68
Rio Ave
1.68
Arouca
1.88
SC Braga is 0.44 goals better than Guimaraes in terms of goals conceded per game (1.06 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
SC Braga
63%
Sporting CP
62%
Benfica
58%
FC Porto
55%
Estoril
53%
Guimaraes
51%
Famalicao
51%
Arouca
50%
GIL Vicente
50%
Moreirense
50%
Santa Clara
48%
Rio Ave
47%
Estrela
47%
Nacional
46%
Alverca
45%
Casa Pia
41%
SC Braga is 11.5 percentage points better than Guimaraes in terms of average possession (63% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
SC Braga
For 5.0 · Against 3.2 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 12.8 · Total 25.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Guimaraes
For 4.2 · Against 3.8 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 12.4 · Total 25.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
SC Braga
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.0
7.2
8.7
4.4
4.3
4.5
25.0
25.0
25.0
vs Stronger (6)
7.7
8.3
7.0
7.0
7.3
6.7
26.0
26.7
25.3
vs Similar (11)
7.7
5.5
10.4
5.3
4.7
6.0
26.2
25.2
27.4
vs Weaker (33)
8.1
7.8
8.4
3.7
3.6
3.8
24.3
24.5
24.1
% over line
34%
24%
43%
66%
67%
65%
70%
71%
70%
% under line
66%
76%
57%
34%
33%
35%
30%
29%
30%
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Guimaraes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
9.3
7.7
5.1
5.3
4.8
28.8
28.3
29.4
vs Stronger (11)
8.0
8.2
7.8
5.6
7.0
4.5
28.3
28.6
28.0
vs Similar (17)
9.6
10.7
8.4
5.5
5.7
5.4
29.7
27.9
31.8
vs Weaker (22)
8.1
8.8
7.0
4.5
4.5
4.4
28.4
28.6
28.1
% over line
40%
54%
23%
70%
63%
78%
90%
88%
91%
% under line
60%
46%
77%
30%
37%
22%
10%
12%
9%
This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Famalicao
10.5
Rio Ave
10.4
Nacional
10.2
Benfica
10.1
Sporting CP
9.8
Casa Pia
9.6
Academico Viseu
9.5
GIL Vicente
9.1
Estoril
9.0
Santa Clara
9.0
Estrela
9.0
Alverca
8.9
FC Porto
8.9
Arouca
8.9
Guimaraes
8.6
SC Braga
8.2
Maritimo
8.1
Moreirense
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Santa Clara
5.9
Maritimo
5.8
Academico Viseu
5.8
Casa Pia
5.6
Arouca
5.6
Estrela
5.5
Famalicao
5.4
Nacional
5.4
Guimaraes
5.2
Moreirense
5.2
FC Porto
5.2
Benfica
5.1
Sporting CP
5.1
Rio Ave
5.0
GIL Vicente
4.9
SC Braga
4.9
Alverca
4.8
Estoril
4.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Famalicao
32.0
Santa Clara
30.1
Estrela
29.9
Moreirense
29.5
Casa Pia
29.2
Guimaraes
28.9
GIL Vicente
27.9
Rio Ave
27.0
Nacional
26.9
Estoril
26.8
Sporting CP
26.2
FC Porto
26.1
Arouca
26.0
Benfica
25.6
Academico Viseu
25.3
SC Braga
24.6
Maritimo
24.6
Alverca
23.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
32.3%
@ 2.40-6.1%
Under 9.5
67.7%
@ 1.50+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.57
Superbet
2.52
Pinnacle
2.36
Marathonbet
2.35
1xBet
2.31
Under
Pinnacle
1.54
Unibet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.47
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
71.8%
@ 1.21-5.4%
Under 3.5
28.2%
@ 4.10+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Under
Betano
4.10
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
85.2%
Under 21.5
14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
SC Braga or Draw✓ Hit
85.6%
Avg Implied 78.8% · @ 1.19
Edge
+6.8%
65%
21%
14%
covers SC Braga + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.23
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
SC Braga or Guimaraes✓ Hit
79.5%
Avg Implied 74.0% · @ 1.26
Edge
+5.5%
65%
21%
14%
covers SC Braga + Guimaraes
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.31
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Draw or Guimaraes✗ Miss
34.9%
Avg Implied 47.1% · @ 1.99
Edge
-12.2%
65%
21%
14%
covers Draw + Guimaraes
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.07
10Bet
2.05
SBO
2.03
Bet365
2.00
Superbet
2.00
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
SC Braga over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
89.6%
@ 1.18+10.2%
Under
10.4%
@ 4.54-10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.20
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Under
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.55
BetVictor
4.50
Betfair
4.50
1xBet
4.50
SC Braga over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
66.1%
@ 1.88+16.5%
Under
33.9%
@ 1.85-16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.96
Pinnacle
1.95
Betfair
1.91
BetVictor
1.90
Superbet
1.87
Under
Pinnacle
1.90
Betano
1.88
Superbet
1.87
Unibet
1.86
10Bet
1.85
SC Braga over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
39.5%
@ 3.74+14.5%
Under
60.5%
@ 1.24-14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.03
Marathonbet
3.94
BetVictor
3.80
1xBet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Under
Betano
1.28
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Bet365
1.25
SC Braga over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
19.4%
@ 8.60+8.5%
Under
80.6%
@ 1.05-8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
1xBet
8.70
Marathonbet
8.70
Superbet
8.30
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Guimaraes over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
63.0%
@ 1.51+1.2%
Under
37.0%
@ 2.44-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
Under
Pinnacle
2.63
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.50
Superbet
2.45
Betano
2.40
Guimaraes over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
26.3%
@ 3.49-0.4%
Under
73.7%
@ 1.27+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.70
Marathonbet
3.64
BetVictor
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Betano
3.50
Under
Betfair
1.30
Superbet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Guimaraes over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.9%
@ 9.55-1.8%
Under
92.1%
@ 1.04+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
9.70
Superbet
9.10
Betfair
9.00
Under
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.01
Guimaraes over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 22.83-2.4%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
27.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to SC Braga, so a minus line means SC Braga give that many goals of a start and Guimaraes receive them. At -1, SC Braga must win by two or more to land; a one-goal SC Braga win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (SC Braga)Actual: Guimaraes
SC Braga -2
23.3%
@ 6.45+9.5%
Draw -2
19.7%
@ 4.96+1.7%
Guimaraes +2
57.0%
@ 1.30-11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.45
10Bet
6.25
Superbet
6.20
Draw
Marathonbet
5.30
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Away
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Unibet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.28
Handicap -1 (SC Braga)Actual: Draw
SC Braga -1
43.0%
@ 3.13+14.3%
Draw -1
22.1%
@ 3.51-3.5%
Guimaraes +1
34.9%
@ 1.97-10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.40
Bet365
3.25
Marathonbet
3.15
Superbet
3.10
10Bet
3.00
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.60
Superbet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
10Bet
3.40
Away
10Bet
2.05
Bet365
2.00
Unibet
1.98
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.93
Handicap +1 (SC Braga)Actual: SC Braga
SC Braga +1
85.6%
@ 1.19+11.2%
Draw +1
9.2%
@ 5.53-6.8%
Guimaraes -1
5.2%
@ 9.22-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Draw
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
5.75
Superbet
5.70
Unibet
5.60
Betfair
5.50
Away
Bet365
11.00
10Bet
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Unibet
9.50
Superbet
8.70
Handicap +2 (SC Braga)Actual: SC Braga
SC Braga +2
94.8%
@ 1.04+4.7%
Draw +2
3.8%
@ 14.00-2.9%
Guimaraes -2
1.4%
@ 30.00-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
13.00
Away
Betfair
31.00
Bet365
29.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
SC Braga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.40
1.25
0.38
0.64
0.43
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (7)
0.86
0.86
1.25
0.25
0.33
1.67
vs Weaker (20)
1.10
0.20
1.40
0.30
0.80
0.10
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Guimaraes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.63
0.47
0.29
0.54
1.08
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
1.57
0.00
0.67
0.25
2.25
vs Similar (8)
0.25
0.38
0.20
0.20
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (15)
0.80
0.33
0.78
0.22
0.83
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
74.2%
@ 1.39+7.1%
Under 0.5
25.8%
@ 2.83-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Marathonbet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Under
Betfair
3.00
Pinnacle
2.98
Superbet
2.95
William Hil
2.90
10Bet
2.85
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
38.4%
@ 2.79+5.0%
Under 1.5
61.6%
@ 1.40-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.99
Betano
2.92
Marathonbet
2.89
Betfair
2.88
1xBet
2.81
Under
Superbet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Unibet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.0%
@ 7.06+1.8%
Under 2.5
85.0%
@ 1.07-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
7.20
William Hil
7.00
Superbet
6.90
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
SC Braga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
62.7%
@ 1.79+10.7%
Under
37.3%
@ 1.93-10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.86
Marathonbet
1.83
1xBet
1.81
Betano
1.80
Superbet
1.76
Under
10Bet
2.00
Unibet
1.98
Pinnacle
1.96
Superbet
1.95
Betano
1.93
SC Braga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
24.1%
@ 4.88+5.1%
Under
75.9%
@ 1.14-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.35
1xBet
5.20
Superbet
4.70
Betano
4.65
10Bet
4.50
Under
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
SC Braga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.1%
@ 12.12-1.6%
Under
93.9%
@ 1.02+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Guimaraes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
34.0%
@ 2.62-1.4%
Under
66.0%
@ 1.43+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.72
Betano
2.70
Marathonbet
2.64
1xBet
2.61
Superbet
2.57
Under
Pinnacle
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Superbet
1.44
Unibet
1.43
1xBet
1.42
Guimaraes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.7%
@ 9.88-2.7%
Under
93.3%
@ 1.03+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
10.70
Superbet
9.30
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Guimaraes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.5%
@ 40.00-99.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
40.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
SC Braga
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.57
0.94
0.44
0.71
0.71
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
1.33
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (7)
1.00
0.43
0.75
0.25
1.33
0.67
vs Weaker (20)
0.70
0.50
1.00
0.40
0.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Guimaraes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Guimaraes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
0.94
0.65
0.46
0.92
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.57
0.33
2.00
1.00
1.25
vs Similar (8)
0.62
0.25
0.80
0.40
0.33
0.00
vs Weaker (15)
0.80
0.67
1.22
0.33
0.17
1.17
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (SC Braga) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
82.8%
@ 1.24+7.6%
Under 0.5
17.2%
@ 3.75-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.22
Under
Betano
3.90
Superbet
3.80
10Bet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.75
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
50.9%
@ 2.11+6.8%
Under 1.5
49.1%
@ 1.67-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.16
William Hil
2.15
1xBet
2.13
Bet365
2.10
Under
Betano
1.72
10Bet
1.68
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
21.4%
@ 4.52+0.8%
Under 2.5
78.6%
@ 1.17-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.75
Superbet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.65
1xBet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Under
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.17
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
SC Braga over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
73.8%
@ 1.54+13.6%
Under
26.2%
@ 2.33-13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.56
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.53
Under
Betano
2.40
1xBet
2.33
Superbet
2.27
SC Braga over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
33.3%
@ 3.55+7.3%
Under
66.7%
@ 1.25-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.74
Superbet
3.65
10Bet
3.50
1xBet
3.50
Betano
3.35
Under
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
SC Braga over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.2%
@ 9.03-1.1%
Under
90.8%
@ 1.03+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.90
Superbet
9.50
Betano
7.70
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Guimaraes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
40.9%
@ 2.16-2.0%
Under
59.1%
@ 1.62+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.18
1xBet
2.17
Superbet
2.17
Betano
2.12
Under
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.61
1xBet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.59
Guimaraes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
10.9%
@ 7.08-2.2%
Under
89.1%
@ 1.06+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.60
1xBet
7.40
Superbet
6.90
Betano
6.40
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Guimaraes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 18.25-4.0%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.01+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
24.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-1.1%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
94.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
-
-
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.3%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.01
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
90.8%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
89.6%
1.18
Betfair
1.20
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
10Bet
1.17
+10.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.1%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
88.8%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.02
-3.8%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
86.4%
1.16
Unibet
1.19
Superbet
1.17
Betano
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
85.6%
1.19
1xBet
1.23
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
85.6%
1.19
Superbet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Unibet
1.18
+11.2%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.0%
1.07
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
-1.8%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.5%
1.29
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
+12.2%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.8%
1.24
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.22
+7.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
80.6%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.02
-8.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
79.5%
1.26
1xBet
1.31
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.6%
1.17
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.17
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
78.4%
1.28
Unibet
1.32
Superbet
1.29
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
1xBet
1.26
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
77.0%
1.09
Betano
1.13
Pinnacle
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
-8.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
75.9%
1.14
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
-5.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.2%
1.39
Betano
1.45
Marathonbet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Bet365
1.40
+7.1%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 2H goals
73.8%
1.54
Superbet
1.56
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.53
-
-
+13.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
73.7%
1.27
Betfair
1.30
Superbet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
71.8%
1.21
Betano
1.21
-
-
-
-
-5.4%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
SC Braga
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Diego Rodrigues67%
Pau Víctor50%
Fran Navarro25%
João Moutinho0%
Vítor Carvalho0%
Gustaf Lagerbielke0%
Victor Gómez0%
Adrian Bajrami0%
Gabriel Silva0%
Demir Ege Tıknaz0%
Diogo Travassos0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Mario Dorgeles0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Fran Navarro25%
João Moutinho25%
Vítor Carvalho25%
Pau Víctor25%
Demir Ege Tıknaz25%
Diogo Travassos25%
Gustaf Lagerbielke0%
Victor Gómez0%
Adrian Bajrami0%
Gabriel Silva0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Diego Rodrigues0%
Mario Dorgeles0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vítor Carvalho25%
Gabriel Silva25%
Demir Ege Tıknaz25%
Mario Dorgeles25%
Fran Navarro0%
João Moutinho0%
Gustaf Lagerbielke0%
Victor Gómez0%
Adrian Bajrami0%
Pau Víctor0%
Diogo Travassos0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Diego Rodrigues0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fran Navarro0%
João Moutinho0%
Vítor Carvalho0%
Gustaf Lagerbielke0%
Victor Gómez0%
Adrian Bajrami0%
Pau Víctor0%
Gabriel Silva0%
Demir Ege Tıknaz0%
Diogo Travassos0%
Bernardo Fontes0%
Diego Rodrigues0%
Mario Dorgeles0%
Guimaraes
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Samu25%
Alioune Ndoye25%
Gustavo Silva25%
Oliwier Zych0%
Óscar Rivas0%
João Mendes0%
Beni Mukendi0%
Telmo Arcanjo0%
Lohann Doucet0%
Gonçalo Nogueira0%
Thiago Balieiro0%
Tony Strata0%
Miguel Nogueira0%
Oumar Camara0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Óscar Rivas50%
Gustavo Silva50%
Miguel Nogueira50%
Gonçalo Nogueira25%
Thiago Balieiro25%
Tony Strata25%
Oumar Camara25%
Samu0%
Oliwier Zych0%
João Mendes0%
Beni Mukendi0%
Telmo Arcanjo0%
Alioune Ndoye0%
Lohann Doucet0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Miguel Nogueira50%
Tony Strata25%
Samu0%
Oliwier Zych0%
Óscar Rivas0%
João Mendes0%
Beni Mukendi0%
Telmo Arcanjo0%
Alioune Ndoye0%
Lohann Doucet0%
Gonçalo Nogueira0%
Thiago Balieiro0%
Gustavo Silva0%
Oumar Camara0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Alioune Ndoye75%
Gustavo Silva50%
Samu25%
Tony Strata25%
Oliwier Zych0%
Óscar Rivas0%
João Mendes0%
Beni Mukendi0%
Telmo Arcanjo0%
Lohann Doucet0%
Gonçalo Nogueira0%
Thiago Balieiro0%
Miguel Nogueira0%
Oumar Camara0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
ALV (30)
€39m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
CP (29)
€27m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
EST (22)
€20m
NAC (31)
€20m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
SC Braga's squad is €119m more valuable than Guimaraes's (€165m vs €46m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ALV (8)
€15m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
CP (11)
€9m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
AV (11)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
EST (6)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
SC Braga's attack is €19m more valuable than Guimaraes's (€41m vs €22m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
ALV (8)
€6m
CP (7)
€6m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
EST (5)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
SC Braga's midfield is €44m more valuable than Guimaraes's (€56m vs €11m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
ALV (14)
€18m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
CP (11)
€12m
EST (11)
€11m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
SC Braga's defence is €56m more valuable than Guimaraes's (€68m vs €12m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
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FC Porto
Sporting CP
Arouca
Santa Clara
Benfica
GIL Vicente
Maritimo
Estrela
Nacional
Moreirense
Rio Ave
Famalicao
Academico Viseu
Alverca
Estoril
Casa Pia