AC Milan are poised to take the three points in this Serie A encounter against Torino. The visitors' recent form has been inconsistent, but they're coming off a defeat against Cagliari, which might spark a response. Torino, on the other hand, are coming off a draw against Juventus, and their home form has been concerning, scoring an average of 1.5 goals while conceding 2.33.
The model predicts an away win with a 47% probability, while the draw and home win probabilities stand at 28% and 25%, respectively. The expected total goals are 2.5, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.6% probability.
AC Milan have been scoring an average of 1.82 goals while conceding 0.91 when playing away against weaker opponents. Torino's home scoring and conceding statistics are less impressive, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 2.33 conceded. The model's selections include a Draw or Away pick with 78.8% probability, an Under 3.5 pick with 75.3% probability, an Over 1.5 pick with 73% probability, and a Home or Away pick with 72.8% probability. The home win percentage is 25%, the draw percentage is 28%, and the away win percentage is 47%.
Results analysis
The updated form storyline shows Torino coming off a defeat while AC Milan arrive after a win, setting the stage for a tightly contested fixture. The final score was 1-2, confirming the model’s pick of an Away win, which was correct. The model had assigned a 45 % probability to the away triumph. Every suggested selection hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.5 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.7 %, Under 6.5 at 98.4 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.4 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.2 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 96.4 %, Under 5.5 at 95.3 %, and Away under 2.5 2H goals at 95.1 %. The model’s predictions were remarkably accurate, with every selection settling in line with the match outcome.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Torino win✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied 21.9% · @ 4.33
Edge
+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
4.65
Dafabet
4.60
1xBet
4.51
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.48
Draw✗ Miss
28.1%
Avg Implied 27.7% · @ 3.44
Edge
+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.65
10Bet
3.60
1xBet
3.60
Marathonbet
3.54
Pinnacle
3.52
AC Milan win✓ Hit
45.0%
Avg Implied 50.4% · @ 1.89
Edge
-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.95
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Pinnacle
1.92
SBO
1.91
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Torino
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.63
1.60
1.67
0.80
1.60
vs Stronger (9)
1.22
1.78
1.60
1.80
0.75
1.75
vs Similar (21)
1.19
1.57
1.60
1.60
0.82
1.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (AC Milan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AC Milan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.97
1.21
1.07
1.44
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.77
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.86
vs Weaker (17)
1.59
1.12
1.38
1.38
1.78
0.89
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Torino) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.9%
@ 1.33+3.9%
Under 1.5
25.1%
@ 3.25-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
BetVictor
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Under
Unibet
3.45
10Bet
3.45
Pinnacle
3.39
Superbet
3.30
Betano
3.30
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.7%
@ 2.05+2.1%
Under 2.5
51.3%
@ 1.78-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.13
1xBet
2.11
Bet365
2.10
Pinnacle
2.09
Betano
2.07
Under
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Pinnacle
1.81
Unibet
1.81
Betano
1.80
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.9%
@ 3.60+0.6%
Under 3.5
73.1%
@ 1.28-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
Bet365
3.75
888Sport
3.70
Superbet
3.60
Under
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.31
Betano
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.5%
@ 1.84+2.6%
No
46.5%
@ 1.91-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.91
Superbet
1.88
888Sport
1.85
1xBet
1.85
William Hil
1.85
No
Betfair
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Unibet
1.95
William Hil
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%@ 6.20+6.0%
0-1
9.7%@ 6.31+2.4%
1-2 ✓
9.2%@ 7.79+3.3%
0-0
8.5%@ 9.02+3.4%
0-2
8.2%@ 8.20+2.6%
1-0
6.9%@ 10.74+2.6%
2-1
6.8%@ 13.21+3.3%
2-2
5.1%@ 14.24+1.9%
Torino goals ↓
AC Milan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
9.7%
8.2%
4.1%
1.6%
1
6.9%
13%
9.2%
4.6%
1.7%
2
4.5%
6.8%
5.1%
2.6%
1.0%
3
1.7%
2.5%
1.9%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.5%
0.7%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Torino goals (down), columns = AC Milan goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter
2.29
Napoli
2.00
AS Roma
1.92
Como
1.87
AC Milan
1.84
Juventus
1.82
Atalanta
1.55
Bologna
1.47
Lazio
1.42
Udinese
1.32
Sassuolo
1.29
Parma
1.18
Torino
1.18
Cagliari
1.13
Venezia
1.12
Fiorentina
1.11
Genoa
1.08
Frosinone
1.03
Monza
1.01
Lecce
1.00
Torino is 0.66 points worse than AC Milan in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 1.84).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter
2.34
Como
1.71
Juventus
1.61
AS Roma
1.55
Napoli
1.53
AC Milan
1.39
Atalanta
1.34
Bologna
1.29
Sassuolo
1.21
Udinese
1.18
Torino
1.16
Lazio
1.08
Genoa
1.08
Fiorentina
1.08
Cagliari
1.05
Venezia
1.00
Frosinone
0.91
Monza
0.90
Parma
0.74
Lecce
0.74
Torino is 0.24 goals worse than AC Milan in terms of goals scored per game (1.16 vs 1.39).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Como
0.76
AS Roma
0.82
Juventus
0.89
AC Milan
0.92
Inter
0.92
Napoli
0.95
Atalanta
0.95
Lazio
1.05
Parma
1.21
Bologna
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Fiorentina
1.32
Lecce
1.32
Sassuolo
1.32
Genoa
1.34
Cagliari
1.39
Venezia
1.48
Frosinone
1.62
Monza
1.64
Torino
1.66
Torino is 0.74 goals worse than AC Milan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.66 vs 0.92).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Como
62%
Inter
60%
Napoli
59%
Juventus
58%
AS Roma
56%
Atalanta
55%
Bologna
55%
AC Milan
52%
Fiorentina
51%
Lazio
50%
Genoa
49%
Sassuolo
46%
Udinese
46%
Cagliari
46%
Torino
44%
Parma
44%
Lecce
42%
Torino is 7.7 percentage points worse than AC Milan in terms of average possession (44% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Torino
For 3.5 · Against 5.0 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 10.8 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AC Milan
For 3.6 · Against 3.6 · Total 7.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 10.9 · Total 22.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Torino
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
8.9
8.1
3.3
3.2
3.5
24.6
23.8
25.4
vs Stronger (18)
8.9
8.4
9.4
3.2
2.9
3.6
22.2
20.7
23.7
vs Similar (32)
8.2
9.1
7.4
3.4
3.3
3.5
26.0
25.5
26.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
42%
48%
36%
44%
40%
48%
68%
68%
68%
% under line
58%
52%
64%
56%
60%
52%
32%
32%
32%
This opponent (AC Milan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AC Milan
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
8.7
8.8
3.8
4.2
3.4
21.8
22.0
21.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
8.4
7.6
9.3
4.4
5.0
3.6
21.0
21.8
20.0
vs Weaker (28)
9.0
9.7
8.5
3.3
3.4
3.3
22.4
22.2
22.7
% over line
42%
48%
36%
56%
72%
40%
54%
52%
56%
% under line
58%
52%
64%
44%
28%
60%
46%
48%
44%
This opponent (Torino) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Frosinone
10.0
Lecce
9.9
Juventus
9.7
Bologna
9.4
Udinese
9.3
Inter
9.3
Atalanta
9.1
Venezia
9.0
Monza
9.0
Sassuolo
9.0
Fiorentina
8.9
Cagliari
8.8
AC Milan
8.7
AS Roma
8.7
Genoa
8.6
Lazio
8.6
Parma
8.5
Torino
8.5
Napoli
8.4
Como
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lazio
5.3
Fiorentina
4.8
Frosinone
4.8
Como
4.6
Monza
4.5
Genoa
4.4
Sassuolo
4.4
AS Roma
4.3
Venezia
4.3
Bologna
4.0
Cagliari
3.9
Parma
3.9
Lecce
3.8
Udinese
3.8
AC Milan
3.8
Juventus
3.6
Atalanta
3.6
Torino
3.5
Napoli
3.4
Inter
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Frosinone
30.3
Venezia
29.8
Bologna
28.4
AS Roma
28.3
Fiorentina
28.1
Monza
27.4
Genoa
27.3
Cagliari
27.2
Como
26.3
Lecce
25.5
Udinese
25.1
Lazio
24.9
Sassuolo
24.7
Torino
24.6
Parma
24.4
Inter
24.1
Napoli
23.5
Juventus
23.1
Atalanta
21.9
AC Milan
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
37.9%
@ 2.23-3.7%
Under 9.5
62.1%
@ 1.59+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.40
Betano
2.30
Pinnacle
2.29
Marathonbet
2.28
Unibet
2.28
Under
10Bet
1.77
Superbet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.61
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.55
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
49.1%
@ 2.25+7.8%
Under 3.5
50.9%
@ 1.58-7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.33
Superbet
2.30
1xBet
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.22
Under
Betano
1.62
Unibet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.59
Bet365
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
61.9%
@ 1.54+2.7%
Under 21.5
38.1%
@ 2.23-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.54
Under
1xBet
2.23
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Torino or Draw✗ Miss
48.4%
Avg Implied 49.6% · @ 1.91
Edge
-1.2%
27%
28%
45%
covers Torino + Draw
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.05
1xBet
1.96
SBO
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
Bet365
1.91
Torino or AC Milan✓ Hit
72.8%
Avg Implied 72.6% · @ 1.30
Edge
+0.1%
27%
28%
45%
covers Torino + AC Milan
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Betano
1.31
888Sport
1.30
Draw or AC Milan✓ Hit
78.8%
Avg Implied 77.8% · @ 1.21
Edge
+1.1%
27%
28%
45%
covers Draw + AC Milan
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
888Sport
1.22
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Torino over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
61.6%
@ 1.52+0.0%
Under
38.4%
@ 2.43-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.56
1xBet
1.54
Superbet
1.53
Betano
1.53
BetVictor
1.53
Under
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.52
Unibet
2.48
888Sport
2.40
Superbet
2.40
Torino over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
24.8%
@ 3.57-1.3%
Under
75.2%
@ 1.26+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.83
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Betfair
3.60
888Sport
3.60
Under
1xBet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Torino over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.3%
@ 9.86-2.2%
Under
92.7%
@ 1.03+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.25
888Sport
11.00
1xBet
11.00
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
9.30
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Torino over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 25.17-2.2%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
34.00
Superbet
29.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
AC Milan over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
80.1%
@ 1.19+1.8%
Under
19.9%
@ 4.32-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.80
Pinnacle
4.55
10Bet
4.50
Bet365
4.33
1xBet
4.33
AC Milan over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
48.0%
@ 1.99+0.9%
Under
52.0%
@ 1.77-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.06
Marathonbet
2.04
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
2.00
888Sport
2.00
Under
10Bet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.81
1xBet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
Unibet
1.76
AC Milan over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
22.1%
@ 4.23-0.0%
Under
77.9%
@ 1.20+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.80
Pinnacle
4.39
BetVictor
4.33
888Sport
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Under
10Bet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.22
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
AC Milan over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.1%
@ 9.72-1.5%
Under
91.9%
@ 1.03+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
11.00
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
10.50
Marathonbet
10.25
Superbet
9.50
Under
Betano
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Torino, so a minus line means Torino give that many goals of a start and AC Milan receive them. At -1, Torino must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Torino win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Torino)Actual: AC Milan
Torino -2
2.1%
@ 29.33-1.1%
Draw -2
5.7%
@ 12.67-1.7%
AC Milan +2
92.3%
@ 1.04+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
36.00
Superbet
26.00
Bet365
26.00
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
13.00
Superbet
12.00
Away
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Handicap -1 (Torino)Actual: AC Milan
Torino -1
7.7%
@ 9.30-1.8%
Draw -1
13.4%
@ 5.35-3.2%
AC Milan +1
78.8%
@ 1.20+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
12.00
10Bet
10.00
Bet365
10.00
Unibet
9.00
Marathonbet
5.50
Draw
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Unibet
5.40
Marathonbet
3.62
Away
Marathonbet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.21
10Bet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Handicap +1 (Torino)Actual: Draw
Torino +1
48.4%
@ 1.90+0.9%
Draw +1
23.5%
@ 3.52-2.2%
AC Milan -1
28.1%
@ 3.37+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
2.05
Marathonbet
1.95
Superbet
1.90
Unibet
1.86
Betfair
1.83
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.55
Unibet
3.50
10Bet
3.40
Away
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.44
Unibet
3.25
Handicap +2 (Torino)Actual: Torino
Torino +2
71.9%
@ 1.28+1.2%
Draw +2
16.2%
@ 5.32-0.8%
AC Milan -2
11.9%
@ 7.38-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Draw
Marathonbet
5.65
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Superbet
5.40
Unibet
5.10
Away
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.30
Superbet
7.20
Unibet
7.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Torino
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.73
0.73
0.67
0.27
0.80
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.78
0.60
0.80
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (21)
0.52
0.71
0.80
0.60
0.27
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (AC Milan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AC Milan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.53
0.43
0.64
0.56
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.31
0.46
0.33
0.50
0.29
0.43
vs Weaker (17)
0.65
0.59
0.50
0.75
0.78
0.44
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Torino) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
68.3%
@ 1.41+2.0%
Under 0.5
31.7%
@ 2.78-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.45
1xBet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Under
Pinnacle
2.95
William Hil
2.90
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.85
Superbet
2.82
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
35.3%
@ 2.92+3.2%
Under 1.5
64.7%
@ 1.38-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.06
Betano
3.05
Marathonbet
3.02
1xBet
3.02
Bet365
3.00
Under
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.40
William Hil
1.40
BetVictor
1.39
Pinnacle
1.39
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.8%
@ 7.67-0.4%
Under 2.5
88.2%
@ 1.07+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
1xBet
8.10
Marathonbet
8.10
BetVictor
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Under
10Bet
1.09
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Torino over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
37.4%
@ 2.64+2.2%
Under
62.6%
@ 1.44-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.78
1xBet
2.69
Marathonbet
2.69
Betano
2.62
Superbet
2.60
Under
Pinnacle
1.45
Betano
1.45
10Bet
1.45
Superbet
1.44
Unibet
1.44
Torino over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.3%
@ 10.10-1.0%
Under
91.7%
@ 1.03+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.75
1xBet
11.70
Superbet
9.80
Unibet
9.00
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Unibet
1.01
Torino over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.3%
@ 27.00-2.3%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.01+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
40.00
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
AC Milan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
50.0%
@ 1.84-0.5%
Under
50.0%
@ 1.89+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.91
Pinnacle
1.87
Marathonbet
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Superbet
1.83
Under
10Bet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.95
Superbet
1.88
Unibet
1.86
1xBet
1.84
AC Milan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.6%
@ 5.28-3.9%
Under
86.4%
@ 1.12+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.75
Betano
5.30
Unibet
5.20
Superbet
5.15
Under
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Unibet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
AC Milan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.6%
@ 13.62-3.4%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.01+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Torino
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.90
0.87
1.00
0.53
0.80
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.86
0.80
1.00
0.55
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (AC Milan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AC Milan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.43
0.79
0.43
0.88
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.31
0.67
0.17
0.71
0.43
vs Weaker (17)
0.94
0.53
0.88
0.62
1.00
0.44
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Torino) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.2%
@ 1.26+3.8%
Under 0.5
21.8%
@ 3.66-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Under
1xBet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
45.9%
@ 2.23+3.6%
Under 1.5
54.1%
@ 1.63-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.30
888Sport
2.30
1xBet
2.26
Marathonbet
2.26
William Hil
2.25
Under
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
Superbet
1.63
Unibet
1.62
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
18.1%
@ 4.92-0.9%
Under 2.5
81.9%
@ 1.16+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
5.15
1xBet
5.10
Marathonbet
5.10
Bet365
5.00
William Hil
5.00
Under
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Torino over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
45.2%
@ 2.18+2.6%
Under
54.8%
@ 1.62-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.19
Superbet
2.17
Betano
2.15
Under
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.61
Superbet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.60
Torino over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.9%
@ 7.22+1.1%
Under
86.1%
@ 1.06-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.10
1xBet
7.50
Superbet
7.00
Betano
6.30
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
Torino over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.8%
@ 18.50-2.4%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.01+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
25.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.01
AC Milan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
59.3%
@ 1.59+0.7%
Under
40.7%
@ 2.24-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.61
1xBet
1.58
Betano
1.57
Under
Betano
2.30
1xBet
2.26
Superbet
2.17
AC Milan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
25.0%
@ 3.83+0.8%
Under
75.0%
@ 1.22-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
1xBet
3.70
Betano
3.70
Under
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
AC Milan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.9%
@ 9.78-4.6%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.03+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
11.00
1xBet
9.60
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.4%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.3%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.1%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
92.7%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
92.3%
1.04
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
91.9%
1.03
Betano
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.7%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Unibet
1.01
-
-
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.2%
1.07
10Bet
1.09
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.07
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.1%
1.08
10Bet
1.11
Betano
1.11
888Sport
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Unibet
1.08
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.4%
1.12
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Unibet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.1%
1.06
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
-
-1.1%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
84.0%
1.13
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.12
-
-
-
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
82.7%
1.18
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.19
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.9%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
+0.9%
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
80.1%
1.19
1xBet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
78.8%
1.21
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
888Sport
1.22
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
78.8%
1.20
Marathonbet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.21
10Bet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.2%
1.26
888Sport
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
77.9%
1.20
10Bet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.22
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
+0.0%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
76.9%
1.27
1xBet
1.27
-
-
-
-
+5.3%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 goals
75.2%
1.26
1xBet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
75.0%
1.22
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
-
-0.8%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
74.9%
1.33
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
BetVictor
1.35
Superbet
1.34
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
73.6%
1.33
Superbet
1.43
Betano
1.33
Unibet
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Betfair
1.29
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.1%
1.28
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.31
Betano
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Superbet
1.29
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.8%
1.30
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Betano
1.31
888Sport
1.30
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
71.9%
1.28
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.27
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
70.3%
1.58
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.58
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
+11.4%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
70.1%
1.29
Pinnacle
1.35
Betano
1.29
Unibet
1.28
Superbet
1.24
-
-1.8%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
70.0%
1.35
1xBet
1.35
-
-
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Torino
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Giovanni Simeone33%
Pietro Comuzzo33%
Zakaria Aboukhlal0%
Nikola Vlašić0%
Ardian Ismajli0%
Kian Fitz-Jim0%
Sandro Kulenović0%
Saúl Coco0%
Gvidas Gineitis0%
Diego Mascardi0%
Alessio Cacciamani0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gvidas Gineitis33%
Zakaria Aboukhlal0%
Nikola Vlašić0%
Ardian Ismajli0%
Giovanni Simeone0%
Kian Fitz-Jim0%
Sandro Kulenović0%
Saúl Coco0%
Pietro Comuzzo0%
Diego Mascardi0%
Alessio Cacciamani0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Gvidas Gineitis33%
Alessio Cacciamani33%
Zakaria Aboukhlal0%
Nikola Vlašić0%
Ardian Ismajli0%
Giovanni Simeone0%
Kian Fitz-Jim0%
Sandro Kulenović0%
Saúl Coco0%
Pietro Comuzzo0%
Diego Mascardi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Giovanni Simeone33%
Zakaria Aboukhlal0%
Nikola Vlašić0%
Ardian Ismajli0%
Kian Fitz-Jim0%
Sandro Kulenović0%
Saúl Coco0%
Gvidas Gineitis0%
Pietro Comuzzo0%
Diego Mascardi0%
Alessio Cacciamani0%
AC Milan · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rafael Leão29%
Christian Pulišić24%
Christopher Nkunku21%
Adrien Rabiot16%
Strahinja Pavlović14%
Ruben Loftus-Cheek10%
Alexis Saelemaekers8%
Zachary Athekame7%
Youssouf Fofana6%
Luka Modrić6%
Santiago Giménez6%
Niclas Füllkrug5%
Pervis Estupiñán5%
Koni De Winter4%
Davide Bartesaghi3%
Samuele Ricci3%
Fikayo Tomori0%
Mike Maignan0%
Matteo Gabbia0%
Ardon Jashari0%
Cheveyo Mul-Balentien0%
David Odogu0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Pervis Estupiñán29%
Fikayo Tomori19%
Strahinja Pavlović16%
Adrien Rabiot16%
Rafael Leão16%
Alexis Saelemaekers13%
Matteo Gabbia13%
Samuele Ricci12%
Youssouf Fofana11%
Luka Modrić11%
Santiago Giménez11%
Zachary Athekame11%
Mike Maignan10%
Davide Bartesaghi9%
Koni De Winter7%
Ruben Loftus-Cheek6%
Christian Pulišić0%
Christopher Nkunku0%
Niclas Füllkrug0%
Ardon Jashari0%
Cheveyo Mul-Balentien0%
David Odogu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Adrien Rabiot13%
Christian Pulišić12%
Samuele Ricci12%
Youssouf Fofana11%
Santiago Giménez11%
Alexis Saelemaekers11%
Rafael Leão10%
Christopher Nkunku9%
Luka Modrić8%
Fikayo Tomori8%
Zachary Athekame7%
Ardon Jashari6%
Pervis Estupiñán5%
Koni De Winter4%
Ruben Loftus-Cheek3%
Davide Bartesaghi3%
Strahinja Pavlović3%
Mike Maignan0%
Niclas Füllkrug0%
Matteo Gabbia0%
Cheveyo Mul-Balentien0%
David Odogu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Rafael Leão26%
Christian Pulišić21%
Santiago Giménez17%
Adrien Rabiot13%
Christopher Nkunku12%
Youssouf Fofana11%
Ruben Loftus-Cheek10%
Matteo Gabbia6%
Ardon Jashari6%
Alexis Saelemaekers5%
Samuele Ricci3%
Strahinja Pavlović3%
Luka Modrić0%
Fikayo Tomori0%
Mike Maignan0%
Niclas Füllkrug0%
Pervis Estupiñán0%
Koni De Winter0%
Cheveyo Mul-Balentien0%
Davide Bartesaghi0%
David Odogu0%
Zachary Athekame0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
COM (34)
€488m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
PAR (28)
€142m
CAG (31)
€134m
VEN (36)
€117m
FRO (33)
€84m
LEC (31)
€72m
MON (29)
€70m
Torino's squad is €442m less valuable than AC Milan's (€144m vs €585m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COM (13)
€261m
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
VEN (9)
€39m
PAR (8)
€35m
FRO (8)
€34m
MON (11)
€26m
LEC (9)
€20m
Torino's attack is €180m less valuable than AC Milan's (€43m vs €223m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
COM (7)
€83m
PAR (8)
€60m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
VEN (11)
€31m
CAG (9)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
MON (7)
€24m
LEC (8)
€16m
Torino's midfield is €107m less valuable than AC Milan's (€46m vs €153m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
COM (14)
€144m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
VEN (16)
€47m
PAR (12)
€46m
LEC (14)
€37m
FRO (14)
€24m
MON (11)
€20m
Torino's defence is €155m less valuable than AC Milan's (€54m vs €209m).
Italy: Serie A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
AS Roma
Inter
Juventus
Atalanta
Lazio
Udinese
Como
Frosinone
Napoli
Sassuolo
Cagliari
Lecce
Bologna
Parma
Genoa
Monza
Venezia
Fiorentina