Ujpest vs Ferencvarosi TC Result & Analysis

Ujpest’s recent form shows a win-draw-loss-win-win pattern, but the model still favours a Ferencvarosi TC victory with a 60% chance, a 22% draw probability and an 18% home win probability. The expected total of 3.2 goals suggests a lively encounter, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 10.1% probability. Ferencvarosi, playing away against a weaker opponent, averages 3.45 goals scored and 0.82 conceded, while Ujpest’s home performance against this tier is reflected in their scoring and conceding figures. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 93.5%, Over 2.5 cards at 86.6%, Over 21.5 fouls at 86.3%, Over 1.5 goals at 84.4%, Over 23.5 fouls at 75.4% and Over 3.5 cards at 72.0%. Each pick is listed with its exact probability, and the edge percentages are noted where provided.

The match finished 1-1, a draw that stunned the pre-match favourite, Ferencvarosi TC, who were tipped to win with a 60% probability. The model’s call was therefore wrong. The home side, Ujpest, had just returned from a win, while the visitors were on a four-game winning streak. The model’s selection of “Over 2.5 cards” hit, as did “Over 3.5 cards,” each with 86.6% and 72.0% probabilities respectively. “Over 1.5” also hit at 84.4%. The remaining picks - “Over 19.5 fouls,” “Over 21.5 fouls,” and “Over 23.5 fouls” - missed, with probabilities of 93.5%, 86.3%, and 75.4% respectively. The most likely score was 1-1, with a 10.1% chance.