This opponent (Alcorcon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alcorcon
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.60
0.73
1.27
1.07
1.93
vs Stronger (14)
0.79
1.50
0.50
1.38
1.17
1.67
vs Similar (16)
1.00
1.69
1.00
1.14
1.00
2.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Valladolid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.4%
Under 1.5
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.6%
@ 2.42+10.6%
Under 2.5
50.4%
@ 1.55-10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.7%
Under 3.5
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.4%
No
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.0%
1-0
12.5%
1-1
10.9%
2-1
9.5%
3-0
8.3%
0-0
8.0%
3-1
6.1%
0-1
4.1%
Valladolid goals ↓
Alcorcon goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
4.1%
1.9%
0.5%
0.1%
1
12%
11%
3.6%
0.9%
0.2%
2
13%
9.5%
3.5%
0.9%
0.2%
3
8.3%
6.1%
2.2%
0.5%
0.1%
4
4.0%
2.9%
1.1%
0.3%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Valladolid goals (down), columns = Alcorcon goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leganes
1.76
Valladolid
1.71
Espanyol
1.65
Eibar
1.64
Oviedo
1.54
Racing Santander
1.52
Sporting Gijon
1.50
Burgos
1.40
Levante
1.40
Elche
1.40
Racing Ferrol
1.40
Tenerife
1.33
FC Cartagena
1.21
Zaragoza
1.21
Albacete
1.21
Eldense
1.19
Huesca
1.17
Mirandes
1.17
Amorebieta
1.07
Alcorcon
1.05
Villarreal II
1.02
FC Andorra
1.02
Valladolid is 0.67 points better than Alcorcon in terms of average points per game (1.71 vs 1.05).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Eibar
1.64
Racing Santander
1.50
Espanyol
1.35
Leganes
1.33
Oviedo
1.26
Burgos
1.24
Valladolid
1.21
Albacete
1.19
Levante
1.17
Racing Ferrol
1.17
Sporting Gijon
1.16
Mirandes
1.12
Eldense
1.10
Elche
1.02
Zaragoza
1.00
Villarreal II
0.98
Tenerife
0.90
Amorebieta
0.88
FC Cartagena
0.88
Huesca
0.86
FC Andorra
0.79
Alcorcon
0.76
Valladolid is 0.45 goals better than Alcorcon in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 0.76).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leganes
0.64
Huesca
0.79
Valladolid
0.86
Oviedo
0.89
Espanyol
0.89
Tenerife
0.98
Sporting Gijon
0.98
Zaragoza
1.00
Levante
1.07
Elche
1.10
Eibar
1.14
FC Cartagena
1.21
Racing Ferrol
1.24
Amorebieta
1.26
FC Andorra
1.26
Alcorcon
1.26
Burgos
1.29
Racing Santander
1.31
Mirandes
1.31
Eldense
1.33
Albacete
1.33
Villarreal II
1.48
Valladolid is 0.40 goals better than Alcorcon in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Andorra
63%
Elche
58%
Valladolid
56%
Eibar
55%
Oviedo
54%
Sporting Gijon
54%
Levante
52%
Racing Ferrol
52%
Espanyol
51%
Zaragoza
50%
Villarreal II
50%
Tenerife
50%
Albacete
49%
Racing Santander
47%
Burgos
47%
Amorebieta
46%
Leganes
46%
Eldense
45%
Huesca
45%
Mirandes
45%
FC Cartagena
44%
Alcorcon
42%
Valladolid is 13.8 percentage points better than Alcorcon in terms of average possession (56% vs 42%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Valladolid
For 4.0 · Against 3.5 · Total 7.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.5 · Against 4.0 · Total 7.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 12.5 · Total 25.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Alcorcon
For 4.8 · Against 5.3 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 13.6 · Total 25.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Valladolid
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.2
9.2
1.4
1.3
1.4
28.8
28.3
29.3
vs Stronger (14)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (31)
10.7
12.3
9.5
1.5
1.3
1.7
28.6
28.7
28.5
vs Weaker (5)
8.2
8.0
8.5
4.4
4.7
4.0
29.2
28.0
31.0
% over line
58%
67%
50%
18%
16%
20%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
42%
33%
50%
82%
84%
80%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Alcorcon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alcorcon
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
8.7
8.4
4.5
4.4
4.6
27.2
26.7
27.6
vs Stronger (27)
8.6
8.9
8.4
5.0
4.9
5.2
28.0
28.2
27.8
vs Similar (23)
8.4
8.5
8.3
3.8
3.7
3.9
26.1
24.8
27.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
40%
32%
48%
64%
64%
64%
86%
88%
84%
% under line
60%
68%
52%
36%
36%
36%
14%
12%
16%
This opponent (Valladolid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Espanyol
10.3
Mirandes
10.0
Huesca
9.8
Valladolid
9.6
Amorebieta
9.5
Eldense
9.5
Sporting Gijon
9.5
Zaragoza
9.3
Eibar
9.2
Burgos
9.2
Levante
9.2
Elche
9.0
Racing Santander
8.9
Oviedo
8.9
Tenerife
8.6
FC Cartagena
8.6
Leganes
8.6
Alcorcon
8.5
Racing Ferrol
8.5
Albacete
8.3
Villarreal II
5.5
FC Andorra
5.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
FC Andorra
6.0
Racing Santander
5.9
Espanyol
5.6
Levante
5.5
Albacete
5.3
Tenerife
5.2
Zaragoza
5.2
Valladolid
5.1
Oviedo
5.1
Elche
5.0
FC Cartagena
5.0
Huesca
4.9
Sporting Gijon
4.8
Mirandes
4.8
Leganes
4.7
Villarreal II
4.5
Alcorcon
4.5
Eibar
4.4
Burgos
4.1
Amorebieta
4.1
Racing Ferrol
3.0
Eldense
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Racing Santander
33.8
FC Andorra
31.0
Eldense
30.5
Leganes
30.0
Albacete
29.2
FC Cartagena
28.9
Huesca
28.0
Tenerife
27.8
Alcorcon
27.2
Oviedo
27.1
Elche
26.9
Valladolid
26.9
Espanyol
26.6
Zaragoza
26.4
Amorebieta
25.8
Levante
25.7
Villarreal II
25.5
Mirandes
25.2
Eibar
24.6
Burgos
24.5
Racing Ferrol
24.0
Sporting Gijon
23.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
46.2%
Under 9.5
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
73.4%
Under 3.5
26.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
83.0%
Under 21.5
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Valladolid
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.63
0.60
0.27
0.33
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.27
0.80
0.80
0.50
1.67
vs Similar (19)
0.37
0.26
0.50
0.00
0.22
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Alcorcon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alcorcon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.73
0.20
0.67
0.53
0.80
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
0.57
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.67
vs Similar (16)
0.38
0.88
0.14
0.86
0.56
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Valladolid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Valladolid over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valladolid over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valladolid over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alcorcon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alcorcon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alcorcon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Valladolid
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
1.00
0.60
1.07
0.13
0.93
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
1.09
0.60
1.40
0.17
0.83
vs Similar (19)
0.37
0.95
0.60
0.90
0.11
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Alcorcon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alcorcon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.87
0.53
0.60
0.53
1.13
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
0.93
0.25
0.88
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.81
0.86
0.29
0.44
1.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Valladolid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Valladolid over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valladolid over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valladolid over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alcorcon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alcorcon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alcorcon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Valladolid
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Amath Ndiaye33%
Mamadou Sylla24%
Marcos André19%
Isra Sala18%
Iván Cédric17%
Víctor Meseguer15%
Monchu14%
Anuar10%
Joni Montiel9%
Gustavo Henrique8%
Álvaro Negredo8%
Raúl Moro7%
César Tárrega6%
Sergio Escudero6%
Stanko Jurić5%
Kenedy3%
Lucas Rosa3%
Flavien Boyomo3%
Javi Sánchez0%
Sergio León0%
Lucas Oliveira0%
César de la Hoz0%
Iván Sánchez0%
Luis Pérez0%
Jordi Masip0%
John0%
Alberto Quintana0%
Stipe Biuk0%
David Torres0%
Babatunde Akinsola0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Joni Montiel36%
Javi Sánchez33%
Alberto Quintana33%
John27%
Isra Sala27%
Iván Sánchez26%
César de la Hoz26%
Sergio Escudero26%
Anuar25%
Marcos André25%
Amath Ndiaye22%
Babatunde Akinsola22%
Mamadou Sylla21%
César Tárrega19%
Lucas Oliveira18%
Víctor Meseguer18%
Lucas Rosa17%
Gustavo Henrique17%
Raúl Moro13%
Stanko Jurić13%
Flavien Boyomo13%
David Torres12%
Monchu10%
Stipe Biuk9%
Iván Cédric8%
Luis Pérez7%
Kenedy7%
Sergio León0%
Jordi Masip0%
Álvaro Negredo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Amath Ndiaye22%
Marcos André19%
Raúl Moro13%
Luis Pérez12%
Víctor Meseguer12%
Stanko Jurić11%
Iván Sánchez11%
Joni Montiel9%
Isra Sala9%
Stipe Biuk9%
Sergio Escudero9%
Monchu7%
Mamadou Sylla7%
Anuar5%
David Torres4%
Lucas Rosa3%
Javi Sánchez0%
Sergio León0%
Lucas Oliveira0%
Gustavo Henrique0%
Kenedy0%
César de la Hoz0%
Jordi Masip0%
Álvaro Negredo0%
John0%
Alberto Quintana0%
Flavien Boyomo0%
Iván Cédric0%
Babatunde Akinsola0%
César Tárrega0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mamadou Sylla34%
Monchu31%
Amath Ndiaye22%
Kenedy21%
Álvaro Negredo17%
Stipe Biuk9%
Sergio Escudero9%
Raúl Moro7%
Víctor Meseguer6%
Stanko Jurić3%
Javi Sánchez0%
Sergio León0%
Anuar0%
Lucas Oliveira0%
Gustavo Henrique0%
Joni Montiel0%
César de la Hoz0%
Iván Sánchez0%
Luis Pérez0%
Jordi Masip0%
Lucas Rosa0%
John0%
Marcos André0%
Alberto Quintana0%
Isra Sala0%
Flavien Boyomo0%
Iván Cédric0%
David Torres0%
Babatunde Akinsola0%
César Tárrega0%
Alcorcon
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dyego Sousa30%
Jacobo González14%
Christian Borrego11%
Javier Pérez Mateo9%
Emmanuel Addai9%
Víctor García8%
Fede Vico6%
Chema4%
Juanma Bravo4%
Koldo Obieta Alberdi3%
Pedro Mosquera3%
Yan Eteki3%
Javier Lara3%
Javier Castro2%
Xavier Quintilla0%
Jean-Sylvain Babin0%
David Morillas0%
Alejandro López0%
Álvaro Bustos0%
Iago López Carracedo0%
Jesús Ruiz Suárez0%
Lucas Anacker0%
Iker Bilbao0%
Juan Artola0%
Óscar Rivas0%
Marciano Sanca Tchami0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Yan Eteki38%
Chema33%
Jacobo González31%
Iago López Carracedo24%
Xavier Quintilla23%
Óscar Rivas22%
Dyego Sousa22%
Alejandro López20%
Pedro Mosquera19%
Javier Pérez Mateo17%
Iker Bilbao17%
Víctor García16%
David Morillas14%
Koldo Obieta Alberdi14%
Juan Artola14%
Jean-Sylvain Babin12%
Javier Castro10%
Juanma Bravo8%
Christian Borrego8%
Jesús Ruiz Suárez7%
Fede Vico6%
Javier Lara3%
Emmanuel Addai3%
Álvaro Bustos0%
Lucas Anacker0%
Marciano Sanca Tchami0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Fede Vico19%
Álvaro Bustos12%
Emmanuel Addai11%
Xavier Quintilla9%
Jacobo González8%
Víctor García8%
Iago López Carracedo6%
Juanma Bravo4%
Javier Lara3%
Óscar Rivas3%
Dyego Sousa0%
Pedro Mosquera0%
Jean-Sylvain Babin0%
Yan Eteki0%
David Morillas0%
Alejandro López0%
Chema0%
Koldo Obieta Alberdi0%
Jesús Ruiz Suárez0%
Javier Pérez Mateo0%
Lucas Anacker0%
Iker Bilbao0%
Christian Borrego0%
Juan Artola0%
Javier Castro0%
Marciano Sanca Tchami0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Emmanuel Addai40%
Jacobo González25%
Marciano Sanca Tchami9%
Dyego Sousa9%
Víctor García5%
Juan Artola3%
Óscar Rivas3%
Christian Borrego3%
Xavier Quintilla0%
Fede Vico0%
Pedro Mosquera0%
Jean-Sylvain Babin0%
Yan Eteki0%
David Morillas0%
Javier Lara0%
Alejandro López0%
Chema0%
Álvaro Bustos0%
Juanma Bravo0%
Koldo Obieta Alberdi0%
Iago López Carracedo0%
Jesús Ruiz Suárez0%
Javier Pérez Mateo0%
Lucas Anacker0%
Iker Bilbao0%
Javier Castro0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Spain: Segunda División 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: Segunda División stats & trends →