This opponent (Bohemians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bohemians
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
0.97
1.60
1.00
1.47
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.53
0.97
1.60
1.00
1.47
0.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Waterford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
70.7%
Under 1.5
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.4%
Under 2.5
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.4%
Under 3.5
77.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.0%
No
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
0-1 ✓
12.1%
0-0
10.2%
0-2
9.9%
1-2
9.2%
1-0
7.1%
2-1
5.7%
0-3
4.9%
Waterford goals ↓
Bohemians goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
12%
9.9%
4.9%
1.8%
1
7.1%
14%
9.2%
4.5%
1.7%
2
3.9%
5.7%
4.3%
2.1%
0.8%
3
1.2%
1.8%
1.3%
0.7%
0.2%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Waterford goals (down), columns = Bohemians goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.96
St Patrick's Athl.
1.72
Bohemians
1.72
Dundalk
1.38
Shelbourne
1.30
Galway United
1.21
Derry City
1.17
Waterford
1.10
Drogheda United
0.97
Sligo Rovers
0.79
Waterford is 0.62 points worse than Bohemians in terms of average points per game (1.10 vs 1.72).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Bohemians
1.72
Shamrock Rovers
1.64
Dundalk
1.59
St Patrick's Athl.
1.55
Derry City
1.41
Shelbourne
1.37
Waterford
1.34
Galway United
1.29
Drogheda United
1.14
Sligo Rovers
0.79
Waterford is 0.38 goals worse than Bohemians in terms of goals scored per game (1.34 vs 1.72).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Patrick's Athl.
0.86
Shamrock Rovers
0.96
Bohemians
1.17
Derry City
1.38
Shelbourne
1.44
Galway United
1.50
Dundalk
1.55
Sligo Rovers
1.66
Drogheda United
1.66
Waterford
1.66
Waterford is 0.48 goals worse than Bohemians in terms of goals conceded per game (1.66 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
62%
Bohemians
59%
St Patrick's Athl.
55%
Derry City
54%
Shelbourne
53%
Dundalk
52%
Sligo Rovers
46%
Drogheda United
40%
Galway United
40%
Waterford
39%
Waterford is 19.8 percentage points worse than Bohemians in terms of average possession (39% vs 59%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Waterford
For 5.9 · Against 5.2 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 10.2 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bohemians
For 4.2 · Against 4.1 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 11.5 · Total 23.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Waterford
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
11.3
10.0
5.0
5.4
4.5
23.4
23.0
23.8
vs Stronger (5)
7.5
7.5
7.5
3.8
4.5
3.3
19.8
20.5
19.0
vs Similar (44)
11.0
11.7
10.2
5.2
5.5
4.9
23.7
23.2
24.2
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
52%
57%
48%
74%
76%
72%
74%
78%
70%
% under line
48%
43%
52%
26%
24%
28%
26%
22%
30%
This opponent (Bohemians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bohemians
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.7
9.9
5.1
5.6
4.6
23.6
23.4
23.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (50)
10.3
10.7
9.9
5.1
5.6
4.6
23.6
23.4
23.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
49%
54%
43%
74%
80%
68%
66%
67%
65%
% under line
51%
46%
57%
26%
20%
32%
34%
33%
35%
This opponent (Waterford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Waterford
10.8
Sligo Rovers
10.6
Drogheda United
10.6
Bohemians
10.4
Galway United
10.0
St Patrick's Athl.
9.9
Shelbourne
9.2
Dundalk
9.2
Shamrock Rovers
8.8
Derry City
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Derry City
5.8
Bohemians
5.6
Waterford
5.5
Galway United
5.1
St Patrick's Athl.
5.1
Dundalk
5.1
Shamrock Rovers
5.0
Sligo Rovers
4.9
Shelbourne
4.8
Drogheda United
4.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dundalk
25.2
Derry City
23.8
Bohemians
23.6
Waterford
23.3
Galway United
23.2
St Patrick's Athl.
22.0
Shamrock Rovers
21.7
Sligo Rovers
21.7
Shelbourne
21.4
Drogheda United
21.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
61.4%
Under 9.5
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
74.9%
Under 3.5
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
60.0%
Under 21.5
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Waterford
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.80
0.60
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.73
0.77
0.85
0.54
0.62
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Bohemians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bohemians
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.57
0.67
0.47
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.57
0.57
0.67
0.47
0.47
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Waterford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Waterford over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bohemians over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bohemians over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bohemians over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Waterford
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.80
0.47
0.67
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.77
0.46
0.54
0.62
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Bohemians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bohemians
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.40
0.93
0.53
1.00
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.97
0.40
0.93
0.53
1.00
0.27
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Waterford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Waterford over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bohemians over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bohemians over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bohemians over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Waterford
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tom Lonergan42%
John Mahon19%
Pádraig Amond19%
J. Voilås13%
K. Long11%
D. McMenamy4%
Benny Couto4%
Conan Noonan4%
Luke Heeney0%
Jordan Faria0%
Jordan Houston0%
Trae Coyle0%
H. Cann0%
Arlo Doherty0%
Conor Carty0%
S. Glenfield0%
Stephen McMullan0%
Evan McLaughlin0%
Noah Mawene0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Will Johnson0%
Cian Barrett0%
Ronan Mansfield0%
Alan Zborowski0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Will Johnson45%
Ronan Mansfield43%
S. Glenfield29%
Luke Heeney27%
John Mahon27%
Evan McLaughlin25%
Noah Mawene25%
Tom Lonergan19%
Jordan Houston18%
K. Long17%
Benny Couto16%
H. Cann14%
D. McMenamy13%
Conan Noonan12%
Cian Barrett9%
J. Voilås9%
Conor Carty7%
Pádraig Amond4%
Jordan Faria0%
Trae Coyle0%
Arlo Doherty0%
Stephen McMullan0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Alan Zborowski0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Benny Couto16%
J. Voilås13%
Evan McLaughlin12%
Conan Noonan12%
Tom Lonergan12%
D. McMenamy9%
Jordan Houston6%
K. Long6%
John Mahon4%
Pádraig Amond4%
H. Cann4%
Luke Heeney0%
Jordan Faria0%
Trae Coyle0%
Arlo Doherty0%
Conor Carty0%
S. Glenfield0%
Stephen McMullan0%
Noah Mawene0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Will Johnson0%
Cian Barrett0%
Ronan Mansfield0%
Alan Zborowski0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tom Lonergan42%
Pádraig Amond15%
Benny Couto8%
Conor Carty7%
K. Long6%
J. Voilås4%
John Mahon4%
H. Cann4%
Luke Heeney0%
Jordan Faria0%
Jordan Houston0%
Trae Coyle0%
Conan Noonan0%
D. McMenamy0%
Arlo Doherty0%
S. Glenfield0%
Stephen McMullan0%
Evan McLaughlin0%
Noah Mawene0%
Jesse Dempsey0%
Will Johnson0%
Cian Barrett0%
Ronan Mansfield0%
Alan Zborowski0%
Bohemians
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Douglas James-Taylor29%
C. Whelan28%
R. Tierney23%
Dayle Rooney19%
Zane Myers19%
Patrick Hickey17%
H. Vaughan12%
C. Parsons12%
D. Devoy11%
M. Strods11%
A. McDonnell4%
S. Todd4%
Jordan Flores4%
N. Morahan0%
Cian Byrne0%
K. Chorążka0%
D. Power0%
Ryan Burke0%
S. Diallo0%
Leigh Kavanagh0%
S. Mullen0%
P. Walters0%
Hugh Martin0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
D. Devoy32%
H. Vaughan21%
Jordan Flores19%
Dayle Rooney19%
S. Mullen19%
Patrick Hickey17%
A. McDonnell17%
R. Tierney17%
S. Todd12%
Douglas James-Taylor12%
S. Diallo7%
Zane Myers6%
M. Strods5%
Cian Byrne5%
C. Parsons4%
D. Power3%
N. Morahan0%
K. Chorążka0%
C. Whelan0%
Ryan Burke0%
Leigh Kavanagh0%
P. Walters0%
Hugh Martin0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Douglas James-Taylor18%
M. Strods16%
D. Devoy14%
Dayle Rooney14%
C. Whelan14%
H. Vaughan12%
R. Tierney10%
Jordan Flores8%
S. Diallo7%
N. Morahan6%
S. Mullen5%
C. Parsons4%
A. McDonnell0%
S. Todd0%
Cian Byrne0%
K. Chorążka0%
D. Power0%
Ryan Burke0%
Leigh Kavanagh0%
P. Walters0%
Patrick Hickey0%
Zane Myers0%
Hugh Martin0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
C. Whelan17%
Dayle Rooney10%
H. Vaughan8%
D. Devoy7%
R. Tierney7%
Zane Myers6%
Douglas James-Taylor6%
S. Mullen5%
C. Parsons4%
Patrick Hickey3%
A. McDonnell0%
Jordan Flores0%
N. Morahan0%
S. Todd0%
Cian Byrne0%
K. Chorążka0%
D. Power0%
Ryan Burke0%
S. Diallo0%
Leigh Kavanagh0%
P. Walters0%
M. Strods0%
Hugh Martin0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
Waterford's squad is €2m less valuable than Bohemians's (€2m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
Waterford and Bohemians have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
Waterford and Bohemians have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
Waterford and Bohemians have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →