This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.07
1.80
0.93
1.13
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.53
1.21
1.89
1.11
1.20
1.30
vs Weaker (11)
1.36
0.82
1.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Waterford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.7%
Under 1.5
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.2%
Under 2.5
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.6%
Under 3.5
74.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.7%
No
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
0-1
9.9%
1-2 ✓
9.0%
0-0
9.0%
0-2
8.0%
1-0
7.4%
2-1
7.0%
2-2
5.0%
Waterford goals ↓
Derry City goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.0%
9.9%
8.0%
3.9%
1.4%
1
7.4%
14%
9.0%
4.3%
1.6%
2
4.8%
7.0%
5.0%
2.4%
0.9%
3
1.8%
2.6%
1.9%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.5%
0.7%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Waterford goals (down), columns = Derry City goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.83
Derry City
1.75
Shelbourne
1.64
Bohemians
1.50
St Patrick's Athl.
1.44
Drogheda United
1.42
Sligo Rovers
1.14
Waterford
1.14
Galway United
1.08
Cork City
0.67
Bray Wanderers
0.00
Waterford is 0.61 points worse than Derry City in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.56
Derry City
1.44
Shelbourne
1.33
Bohemians
1.33
Sligo Rovers
1.17
St Patrick's Athl.
1.17
Waterford
1.16
Drogheda United
1.06
Galway United
1.03
Bray Wanderers
1.00
Cork City
0.92
Waterford is 0.28 goals worse than Derry City in terms of goals scored per game (1.16 vs 1.44).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Patrick's Athl.
0.89
Shamrock Rovers
0.92
Shelbourne
1.03
Drogheda United
1.06
Bohemians
1.08
Derry City
1.08
Galway United
1.22
Sligo Rovers
1.50
Waterford
1.65
Cork City
1.69
Bray Wanderers
2.00
Waterford is 0.57 goals worse than Derry City in terms of goals conceded per game (1.65 vs 1.08).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
60%
Shelbourne
57%
Bohemians
56%
St Patrick's Athl.
54%
Derry City
54%
Sligo Rovers
49%
Waterford
47%
Cork City
46%
Galway United
41%
Drogheda United
36%
Waterford is 6.7 percentage points worse than Derry City in terms of average possession (47% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Waterford
For 5.8 · Against 5.9 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 10.9 · Total 23.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Derry City
For 4.7 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 11.2 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Waterford
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
11.3
10.0
5.2
5.4
5.0
23.7
23.4
23.9
vs Stronger (6)
8.8
9.7
7.5
4.0
4.7
3.3
20.0
20.7
19.0
vs Similar (44)
10.9
11.6
10.2
5.4
5.5
5.3
24.1
23.9
24.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
53%
57%
50%
78%
76%
80%
77%
78%
75%
% under line
47%
43%
50%
22%
24%
20%
23%
22%
25%
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
8.3
8.7
5.3
4.7
6.0
24.2
23.0
25.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (33)
7.9
7.8
8.1
5.6
5.0
6.2
25.4
24.2
26.5
vs Weaker (17)
9.7
9.6
9.9
4.8
4.1
5.5
21.8
20.1
23.4
% over line
27%
22%
32%
78%
72%
84%
76%
61%
91%
% under line
73%
78%
68%
22%
28%
16%
24%
39%
9%
This opponent (Waterford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bohemians
10.7
Sligo Rovers
10.6
Cork City
10.5
Waterford
10.4
St Patrick's Athl.
10.1
Drogheda United
10.0
Galway United
9.7
Shamrock Rovers
9.0
Shelbourne
8.8
Derry City
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Derry City
5.8
Bohemians
5.8
Waterford
5.5
Shamrock Rovers
5.3
Galway United
5.3
Shelbourne
5.2
St Patrick's Athl.
5.2
Sligo Rovers
5.2
Cork City
4.9
Drogheda United
4.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cork City
24.8
Derry City
24.3
Galway United
24.1
Bohemians
23.8
Waterford
23.8
St Patrick's Athl.
22.6
Sligo Rovers
22.5
Shamrock Rovers
22.5
Shelbourne
21.9
Drogheda United
21.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
59.6%
Under 9.5
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
85.1%
Under 3.5
14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
64.2%
Under 21.5
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Waterford
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.77
0.73
0.73
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.77
0.77
0.69
0.46
0.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.47
0.87
0.27
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.47
1.00
0.33
0.50
0.60
vs Weaker (11)
0.55
0.45
0.67
0.17
0.40
0.80
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Waterford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Waterford over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Waterford
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.97
0.53
0.93
0.53
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.25
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.58
0.92
0.54
0.85
0.62
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.60
0.93
0.67
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.74
0.89
0.78
0.70
0.70
vs Weaker (11)
0.82
0.36
1.00
0.50
0.60
0.20
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Waterford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Waterford over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 4.5 cards
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Waterford
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Pádraig Amond32%
Tom Lonergan28%
Conan Noonan19%
Darragh Leahy12%
Jesse Dempsey6%
Rowan McDonald5%
Kacper Radkowski4%
Kyle White4%
Grant Horton3%
James Olayinka3%
Samuel Glenfield3%
Ryan Burke3%
Jordan Rossiter0%
Maarten Pouwels0%
Navajo Bakboord0%
Andy Boyle0%
Matthew Smith0%
Trae Coyle0%
Muhammadu Faal0%
Dean McMenamy0%
Ben McCormack0%
Stephen McMullan0%
Josh Miles0%
Ronan Mansfield0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Josh Miles60%
Jordan Rossiter38%
Grant Horton33%
Dean McMenamy31%
Kacper Radkowski30%
Samuel Glenfield30%
Maarten Pouwels27%
Andy Boyle27%
Matthew Smith25%
Jesse Dempsey25%
Navajo Bakboord20%
Ronan Mansfield20%
Darragh Leahy19%
Stephen McMullan18%
James Olayinka17%
Rowan McDonald16%
Ryan Burke16%
Kyle White15%
Conan Noonan10%
Tom Lonergan9%
Ben McCormack9%
Pádraig Amond3%
Trae Coyle0%
Muhammadu Faal0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Conan Noonan23%
Pádraig Amond12%
Rowan McDonald11%
Trae Coyle7%
Ryan Burke6%
Tom Lonergan6%
Jesse Dempsey6%
Dean McMenamy4%
Kyle White4%
Grant Horton3%
Samuel Glenfield3%
Jordan Rossiter0%
Maarten Pouwels0%
Navajo Bakboord0%
Kacper Radkowski0%
Andy Boyle0%
Matthew Smith0%
Darragh Leahy0%
James Olayinka0%
Muhammadu Faal0%
Ben McCormack0%
Stephen McMullan0%
Josh Miles0%
Ronan Mansfield0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Pádraig Amond26%
Tom Lonergan22%
Conan Noonan10%
Jesse Dempsey6%
Kacper Radkowski4%
Dean McMenamy4%
James Olayinka3%
Jordan Rossiter0%
Maarten Pouwels0%
Navajo Bakboord0%
Andy Boyle0%
Matthew Smith0%
Darragh Leahy0%
Ryan Burke0%
Grant Horton0%
Trae Coyle0%
Rowan McDonald0%
Muhammadu Faal0%
Ben McCormack0%
Samuel Glenfield0%
Stephen McMullan0%
Kyle White0%
Josh Miles0%
Ronan Mansfield0%
Derry City
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Afolabi Akinyemi43%
Michael Duffy35%
Danny Mullen24%
Liam Boyce22%
Alex Bannon17%
Gavin Whyte14%
Pat Hoban14%
Kevin Holt11%
Adam O'Reilly10%
Sadou Diallo10%
Brandon Fleming8%
Dominic Thomas8%
Ronan Boyce7%
Robbie Benson4%
Sam Todd3%
Mark Connolly3%
Carl Winchester0%
Shane Ferguson0%
Adam Frizzell0%
Paul McMullan0%
Jamie Stott0%
Cameron Dummigan0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Brian Maher0%
Ben Doherty0%
Hayden Cann0%
Sean Patton0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sadou Diallo48%
Adam O'Reilly45%
Carl Winchester40%
Jamie Stott40%
Ciaron Harkin40%
Shane Ferguson33%
Liam Boyce22%
Hayden Cann22%
Danny Mullen20%
Ben Doherty20%
Paul McMullan19%
Mark Connolly18%
Kevin Holt17%
Ronan Boyce17%
Alex Bannon17%
Robbie Benson15%
Michael Duffy15%
Pat Hoban14%
Sean Patton11%
Sam Todd10%
Dominic Thomas8%
Gavin Whyte7%
Brian Maher6%
Brandon Fleming0%
Adam Frizzell0%
Cameron Dummigan0%
Afolabi Akinyemi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Michael Duffy24%
Dominic Thomas23%
Brandon Fleming17%
Afolabi Akinyemi14%
Paul McMullan12%
Gavin Whyte11%
Jamie Stott10%
Shane Ferguson8%
Robbie Benson7%
Sam Todd7%
Carl Winchester7%
Liam Boyce4%
Hayden Cann4%
Danny Mullen4%
Ronan Boyce3%
Adam O'Reilly3%
Kevin Holt0%
Adam Frizzell0%
Mark Connolly0%
Cameron Dummigan0%
Pat Hoban0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Brian Maher0%
Ben Doherty0%
Sadou Diallo0%
Alex Bannon0%
Sean Patton0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Afolabi Akinyemi43%
Michael Duffy35%
Alex Bannon17%
Danny Mullen12%
Liam Boyce9%
Brandon Fleming8%
Dominic Thomas8%
Adam O'Reilly3%
Mark Connolly3%
Kevin Holt0%
Carl Winchester0%
Shane Ferguson0%
Gavin Whyte0%
Adam Frizzell0%
Paul McMullan0%
Jamie Stott0%
Cameron Dummigan0%
Robbie Benson0%
Pat Hoban0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Brian Maher0%
Sam Todd0%
Ben Doherty0%
Ronan Boyce0%
Sadou Diallo0%
Hayden Cann0%
Sean Patton0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
CC (2)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
Waterford's squad is €2m less valuable than Derry City's (€2m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
CC (2)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
Waterford and Derry City have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
Waterford and Derry City have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
CC (0)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
Waterford and Derry City have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
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Shamrock Rovers
Shelbourne
Bohemians
St Patrick's Athl.
Drogheda United
Sligo Rovers
Galway United
Cork City
Bray Wanderers