This opponent (Drogheda United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Drogheda United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.97
1.67
0.80
1.07
1.13
vs Stronger (10)
0.90
1.40
0.80
1.00
1.00
1.80
vs Similar (19)
1.53
0.74
2.10
0.70
0.89
0.78
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Waterford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.4%
Under 1.5
26.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.7%
Under 2.5
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
25.2%
Under 3.5
74.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.0%
No
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
0-0
9.1%
0-1
9.1%
1-0
8.4%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
7.8%
0-2
6.8%
2-0
5.9%
Waterford goals ↓
Drogheda United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.1%
9.1%
6.8%
3.0%
1.0%
1
8.4%
14%
8.4%
3.7%
1.2%
2
5.9%
7.8%
5.1%
2.2%
0.7%
3
2.4%
3.2%
2.1%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.7%
1.0%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Waterford goals (down), columns = Drogheda United goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.83
Derry City
1.75
Shelbourne
1.64
Bohemians
1.50
St Patrick's Athl.
1.44
Drogheda United
1.42
Sligo Rovers
1.14
Waterford
1.14
Galway United
1.08
Cork City
0.67
Bray Wanderers
0.00
Waterford is 0.28 points worse than Drogheda United in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.42).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.56
Derry City
1.44
Shelbourne
1.33
Bohemians
1.33
Sligo Rovers
1.17
St Patrick's Athl.
1.17
Waterford
1.16
Drogheda United
1.06
Galway United
1.03
Bray Wanderers
1.00
Cork City
0.92
Waterford is 0.11 goals better than Drogheda United in terms of goals scored per game (1.16 vs 1.06).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Patrick's Athl.
0.89
Shamrock Rovers
0.92
Shelbourne
1.03
Drogheda United
1.06
Bohemians
1.08
Derry City
1.08
Galway United
1.22
Sligo Rovers
1.50
Waterford
1.65
Cork City
1.69
Bray Wanderers
2.00
Waterford is 0.59 goals worse than Drogheda United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.65 vs 1.06).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
60%
Shelbourne
57%
Bohemians
56%
St Patrick's Athl.
54%
Derry City
54%
Sligo Rovers
49%
Waterford
47%
Cork City
46%
Galway United
41%
Drogheda United
36%
Waterford is 10.6 percentage points better than Drogheda United in terms of average possession (47% vs 36%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Waterford
For 5.0 · Against 6.9 · Total 11.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 10.2 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Drogheda United
For 4.9 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 10.4 · Total 20.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Waterford
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.4
10.1
5.0
5.0
5.1
24.6
24.7
24.5
vs Stronger (6)
10.2
9.7
11.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
21.0
22.0
19.5
vs Similar (44)
10.2
10.5
10.0
5.2
5.1
5.3
25.0
25.1
24.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
57%
57%
58%
82%
80%
84%
79%
83%
75%
% under line
43%
43%
42%
18%
20%
16%
21%
17%
25%
This opponent (Drogheda United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Drogheda United
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.3
10.2
3.9
4.5
3.3
22.2
22.8
21.4
vs Stronger (17)
10.1
8.9
11.6
4.0
4.7
3.2
21.4
22.8
19.6
vs Similar (32)
9.5
9.6
9.5
3.9
4.4
3.5
22.6
22.9
22.3
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
43%
40%
48%
52%
60%
44%
59%
64%
52%
% under line
57%
60%
52%
48%
40%
56%
41%
36%
48%
This opponent (Waterford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bohemians
10.8
Cork City
10.5
Waterford
10.1
Sligo Rovers
9.9
Drogheda United
9.9
St Patrick's Athl.
9.8
Galway United
9.7
Shamrock Rovers
9.1
Shelbourne
8.8
Derry City
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Shelbourne
5.9
Bohemians
5.8
Derry City
5.6
Sligo Rovers
5.5
Waterford
5.4
Shamrock Rovers
5.3
Cork City
5.2
St Patrick's Athl.
5.2
Galway United
4.8
Drogheda United
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cork City
25.4
Sligo Rovers
25.0
Derry City
24.7
Waterford
24.7
Bohemians
24.3
Galway United
24.2
St Patrick's Athl.
23.6
Shelbourne
23.6
Drogheda United
22.4
Shamrock Rovers
22.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
59.7%
Under 9.5
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
71.1%
Under 3.5
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
49.8%
Under 21.5
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Waterford
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.73
0.50
0.64
0.50
0.81
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.69
0.50
0.58
0.57
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Drogheda United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Drogheda United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.33
0.80
0.33
0.53
0.33
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
0.40
0.40
0.20
0.20
0.60
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.32
1.00
0.40
0.56
0.22
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Waterford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Waterford over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drogheda United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drogheda United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drogheda United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Waterford
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.93
0.36
0.93
0.50
0.94
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.25
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.42
0.88
0.33
0.83
0.50
0.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Drogheda United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Drogheda United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.63
0.87
0.47
0.53
0.80
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
1.00
0.40
0.80
0.80
1.20
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.42
1.10
0.30
0.33
0.56
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Waterford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Waterford over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Waterford over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drogheda United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drogheda United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drogheda United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Waterford
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Pádraig Amond32%
Tom Lonergan28%
Conan Noonan19%
Darragh Leahy12%
Jesse Dempsey6%
Rowan McDonald5%
Kacper Radkowski4%
Kyle White4%
Grant Horton3%
James Olayinka3%
Samuel Glenfield3%
Ryan Burke3%
Jordan Rossiter0%
Maarten Pouwels0%
Navajo Bakboord0%
Andy Boyle0%
Matthew Smith0%
Trae Coyle0%
Muhammadu Faal0%
Dean McMenamy0%
Ben McCormack0%
Stephen McMullan0%
Josh Miles0%
Ronan Mansfield0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Josh Miles60%
Jordan Rossiter38%
Grant Horton33%
Dean McMenamy31%
Kacper Radkowski30%
Samuel Glenfield30%
Maarten Pouwels27%
Andy Boyle27%
Matthew Smith25%
Jesse Dempsey25%
Navajo Bakboord20%
Ronan Mansfield20%
Darragh Leahy19%
Stephen McMullan18%
James Olayinka17%
Rowan McDonald16%
Ryan Burke16%
Kyle White15%
Conan Noonan10%
Tom Lonergan9%
Ben McCormack9%
Pádraig Amond3%
Trae Coyle0%
Muhammadu Faal0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Conan Noonan23%
Pádraig Amond12%
Rowan McDonald11%
Trae Coyle7%
Ryan Burke6%
Tom Lonergan6%
Jesse Dempsey6%
Dean McMenamy4%
Kyle White4%
Grant Horton3%
Samuel Glenfield3%
Jordan Rossiter0%
Maarten Pouwels0%
Navajo Bakboord0%
Kacper Radkowski0%
Andy Boyle0%
Matthew Smith0%
Darragh Leahy0%
James Olayinka0%
Muhammadu Faal0%
Ben McCormack0%
Stephen McMullan0%
Josh Miles0%
Ronan Mansfield0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Pádraig Amond26%
Tom Lonergan22%
Conan Noonan10%
Jesse Dempsey6%
Kacper Radkowski4%
Dean McMenamy4%
James Olayinka3%
Jordan Rossiter0%
Maarten Pouwels0%
Navajo Bakboord0%
Andy Boyle0%
Matthew Smith0%
Darragh Leahy0%
Ryan Burke0%
Grant Horton0%
Trae Coyle0%
Rowan McDonald0%
Muhammadu Faal0%
Ben McCormack0%
Samuel Glenfield0%
Stephen McMullan0%
Kyle White0%
Josh Miles0%
Ronan Mansfield0%
Drogheda United
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Josh Thomas25%
Warren Davis19%
Dare Kareem19%
Douglas James-Taylor15%
Conor Keeley15%
Paul Doyle14%
Elicha Ahui12%
Darragh Markey10%
George Cooper8%
Ryan Brennan6%
Shane Farrell6%
Luke Heeney6%
Thomas Oluwa3%
Conor Kane0%
Luke Dennison0%
Jack Stretton0%
Andrew Quinn0%
Owen Lambe0%
Kieran Cruise0%
John O'Sullivan0%
Aaron Harper-Bailey0%
Steve Zishim Bawa0%
Bridel Bosakani0%
James Bolger0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Elicha Ahui38%
Ryan Brennan28%
Luke Heeney27%
Josh Thomas25%
Shane Farrell24%
Conor Keeley21%
Darragh Markey19%
Steve Zishim Bawa14%
Kieran Cruise12%
Andrew Quinn10%
Owen Lambe9%
Warren Davis9%
Conor Kane9%
Douglas James-Taylor8%
Thomas Oluwa6%
Dare Kareem6%
Luke Dennison6%
Paul Doyle0%
Jack Stretton0%
George Cooper0%
John O'Sullivan0%
Aaron Harper-Bailey0%
Bridel Bosakani0%
James Bolger0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Shane Farrell9%
Conor Keeley9%
Owen Lambe6%
Warren Davis6%
Conor Kane6%
Kieran Cruise6%
Thomas Oluwa3%
Darragh Markey3%
Andrew Quinn3%
Ryan Brennan3%
Luke Heeney3%
Douglas James-Taylor0%
Paul Doyle0%
Luke Dennison0%
Jack Stretton0%
Josh Thomas0%
George Cooper0%
John O'Sullivan0%
Elicha Ahui0%
Aaron Harper-Bailey0%
Steve Zishim Bawa0%
Bridel Bosakani0%
James Bolger0%
Dare Kareem0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Douglas James-Taylor38%
Josh Thomas25%
Conor Keeley9%
James Bolger8%
George Cooper8%
Thomas Oluwa6%
Owen Lambe3%
Warren Davis3%
Darragh Markey0%
Paul Doyle0%
Ryan Brennan0%
Shane Farrell0%
Luke Heeney0%
Conor Kane0%
Luke Dennison0%
Jack Stretton0%
Andrew Quinn0%
Kieran Cruise0%
John O'Sullivan0%
Elicha Ahui0%
Aaron Harper-Bailey0%
Steve Zishim Bawa0%
Bridel Bosakani0%
Dare Kareem0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
CC (2)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
Waterford and Drogheda United have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
CC (2)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
Waterford and Drogheda United have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
Waterford and Drogheda United have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
CC (0)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
Waterford and Drogheda United have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
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Shamrock Rovers
Derry City
Shelbourne
Bohemians
St Patrick's Athl.
Sligo Rovers
Galway United
Cork City
Bray Wanderers