Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock Result & Analysis

The contest between Zaglebie Lubin and Wisla Plock is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win at 39%. Home and away win probabilities sit at 31% and 30% respectively, leaving the draw as the least likely outcome. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly low-scoring game, with the most probable total of 2 goals carrying a 27% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, with a 14.3% probability, a tidy reflection of the evenly matched attacking and defensive figures.

Zaglebie Lubin, playing at home against a team of similar strength, averages zero goals scored and concedes 0.5. Wisla Plock, on the road, averages 1.0 goal scored and 2.0 conceded against comparable opposition. The suggested picks include Over 2.5 cards at 86%, Over 19.5 fouls at 80.8%, Under 3.5 at 77.9%, Over 8.5 corners at 77.2%, Over 3.5 cards at 70.9% and Over 1.5 at 70.4%. Each selection is presented with its probability, and the edge percentages are noted where provided.

The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite, Wisla Plock, did not deliver. Zaglebie Lubin won 2-1, extending their recent form after a defeat. The model had picked an away win with a 39% probability, but that call was wrong. Among the suggested selections, Over 19.5 fouls at 80.8% hit, Under 3.5 at 77.9% hit, Over 8.5 corners at 77.2% hit, and Over 1.5 at 70.4% hit, while Over 2.5 cards at 86.0% missed, and Over 3.5 cards at 70.9% missed. The final score of 2-1 confirmed a home win, contradicting the model’s prediction.