Atalanta are expected to win this match, with a recent-form note suggesting they're coming off a draw. The overall shape of the match appears to be a low-scoring contest, with 2.7 goals expected on average. The most likely total number of goals is 2. The single most likely correct score is 1-1, with a probability of 12.2%. Atalanta have scored 1.67 goals on average at home against weaker opponents, conceding 0.89. Sassuolo, meanwhile, have scored 1.17 goals on average away against stronger opponents, conceding 1.33.
Atalanta are the clear favourites to win, with a 56% chance of taking all three points, a 25% chance of drawing, and an 18% chance of losing. The model's selection is a Home win. The model also suggests a Home or Draw, with a 78.9% probability, and Over 1.5, with a 76% probability. The model also suggests Under 3.5, with a 71.7% probability and a 7% edge. Home or Away is also a suggested pick, with a 70.4% probability. Atalanta's win percentage is 56%, draw percentage is 25%, and away win percentage is 18%.
Results analysis
Atalanta’s recent form, ending a win, set the stage for a home victory that the model predicted correctly. The final score of 2-1 confirmed the home win, matching the model’s pick and its 58 % probability. The match also saw the model’s eight selections all hit: Under 7.5 goals (99.8 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.4 %), Under 6.5 (99.1 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.9 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.4 %), Under 5.5 (97.2 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.5 %) and Away under 2.5 goals (94.6 %). Each probability is expressed as a percentage, and every pick’s outcome is noted without repetition.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Atalanta win✓ Hit
57.7%
Avg Implied 61.1% · @ 1.55
Edge
-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Pinnacle
1.58
Dafabet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Draw✗ Miss
25.6%
Avg Implied 22.6% · @ 4.20
Edge
+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.40
Dafabet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.30
Superbet
4.30
Pinnacle
4.28
Sassuolo win✗ Miss
16.8%
Avg Implied 16.3% · @ 5.82
Edge
+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
6.10
1xBet
6.03
BetVictor
6.00
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
6.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Atalanta
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.17
1.40
1.13
1.27
1.20
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
5.00
1.00
6.00
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (14)
1.21
1.07
1.50
1.17
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.50
0.71
1.38
0.50
1.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Sassuolo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sassuolo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.37
1.40
1.47
1.13
1.27
vs Stronger (9)
1.11
1.67
1.00
2.25
1.20
1.20
vs Similar (21)
1.33
1.24
1.55
1.18
1.10
1.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Atalanta) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.2%
@ 1.21-3.6%
Under 1.5
25.8%
@ 4.23+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.30
Unibet
4.25
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.9%
@ 1.71-7.8%
Under 2.5
52.1%
@ 2.15+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.77
SBO
1.75
Pinnacle
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.72
Under
1xBet
2.22
10Bet
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Pinnacle
2.19
Betano
2.18
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.2%
@ 2.72-8.4%
Under 3.5
73.8%
@ 1.44+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.82
Unibet
2.80
888Sport
2.80
Betano
2.77
Betfair
2.75
Under
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Bet365
1.44
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.2%
@ 1.76-4.7%
No
51.8%
@ 1.98+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.80
1xBet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.76
No
Betfair
2.05
Betano
2.02
William Hil
2.00
888Sport
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%@ 7.56+6.2%
1-0
12.0%@ 7.31+5.8%
2-0
11.4%@ 7.47+5.4%
2-1 ✓
9.7%@ 7.62+3.7%
0-0
8.6%@ 12.62+5.0%
3-0
6.7%@ 10.96+2.5%
3-1
5.6%@ 11.12+1.5%
0-1
5.2%@ 15.34+2.3%
Atalanta goals ↓
Sassuolo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.6%
5.2%
2.7%
0.8%
0.2%
1
12%
12%
4.7%
1.3%
0.3%
2
11%
9.7%
4.1%
1.1%
0.2%
3
6.7%
5.6%
2.4%
0.7%
0.1%
4
2.9%
2.5%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Atalanta goals (down), columns = Sassuolo goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter
2.29
Napoli
2.00
AS Roma
1.92
Como
1.87
AC Milan
1.84
Juventus
1.82
Atalanta
1.55
Bologna
1.47
Lazio
1.42
Udinese
1.32
Sassuolo
1.29
Torino
1.18
Parma
1.18
Cagliari
1.13
Venezia
1.12
Fiorentina
1.11
Genoa
1.08
Frosinone
1.03
Monza
1.01
Lecce
1.00
Atalanta is 0.26 points better than Sassuolo in terms of average points per game (1.55 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter
2.34
Como
1.71
Juventus
1.61
AS Roma
1.55
Napoli
1.53
AC Milan
1.39
Atalanta
1.34
Bologna
1.29
Sassuolo
1.21
Udinese
1.18
Torino
1.16
Lazio
1.08
Genoa
1.08
Fiorentina
1.08
Cagliari
1.05
Venezia
1.00
Frosinone
0.91
Monza
0.90
Lecce
0.74
Parma
0.74
Atalanta is 0.13 goals better than Sassuolo in terms of goals scored per game (1.34 vs 1.21).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Como
0.76
AS Roma
0.82
Juventus
0.89
AC Milan
0.92
Inter
0.92
Napoli
0.95
Atalanta
0.95
Lazio
1.05
Parma
1.21
Bologna
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Fiorentina
1.32
Sassuolo
1.32
Lecce
1.32
Genoa
1.34
Cagliari
1.39
Venezia
1.48
Frosinone
1.62
Monza
1.64
Torino
1.66
Atalanta is 0.37 goals better than Sassuolo in terms of goals conceded per game (0.95 vs 1.32).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Como
62%
Inter
60%
Napoli
59%
Juventus
58%
AS Roma
56%
Atalanta
55%
Bologna
55%
AC Milan
52%
Fiorentina
51%
Lazio
50%
Genoa
49%
Sassuolo
46%
Udinese
46%
Cagliari
46%
Torino
44%
Parma
44%
Lecce
42%
Atalanta is 9.0 percentage points better than Sassuolo in terms of average possession (55% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Atalanta
For 4.8 · Against 3.2 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 9.9 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sassuolo
For 3.5 · Against 5.4 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 11.4 · Total 23.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Atalanta
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.4
8.9
3.2
3.1
3.2
21.9
22.6
21.3
vs Stronger (3)
8.3
9.0
8.0
1.7
4.0
0.5
16.7
22.0
14.0
vs Similar (25)
9.0
9.5
8.6
3.9
3.7
4.2
21.6
22.0
21.2
vs Weaker (22)
9.3
9.3
9.4
2.5
2.4
2.6
23.0
23.3
22.7
% over line
38%
36%
40%
44%
36%
52%
54%
60%
48%
% under line
62%
64%
60%
56%
64%
48%
46%
40%
52%
This opponent (Sassuolo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sassuolo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.4
8.6
4.3
4.1
4.4
24.7
24.7
24.8
vs Stronger (12)
8.9
8.8
9.0
3.8
4.5
3.0
23.1
24.5
21.7
vs Similar (31)
9.2
9.8
8.5
4.4
3.9
4.9
25.4
24.8
26.0
vs Weaker (7)
8.4
8.3
8.5
4.7
4.3
5.0
24.7
24.3
25.0
% over line
50%
60%
40%
64%
56%
72%
68%
68%
68%
% under line
50%
40%
60%
36%
44%
28%
32%
32%
32%
This opponent (Atalanta) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Frosinone
10.0
Lecce
9.9
Juventus
9.7
Bologna
9.4
Udinese
9.3
Inter
9.3
Atalanta
9.1
Venezia
9.0
Monza
9.0
Sassuolo
9.0
Fiorentina
8.9
Cagliari
8.8
AC Milan
8.7
AS Roma
8.7
Genoa
8.6
Lazio
8.6
Parma
8.5
Torino
8.5
Napoli
8.4
Como
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lazio
5.3
Fiorentina
4.8
Frosinone
4.8
Como
4.6
Monza
4.5
Genoa
4.4
Sassuolo
4.4
AS Roma
4.3
Venezia
4.3
Bologna
4.0
Cagliari
3.9
Parma
3.9
Lecce
3.8
Udinese
3.8
AC Milan
3.8
Juventus
3.6
Atalanta
3.6
Torino
3.5
Napoli
3.4
Inter
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Frosinone
30.3
Venezia
29.8
Bologna
28.4
AS Roma
28.3
Fiorentina
28.1
Monza
27.4
Genoa
27.3
Cagliari
27.2
Como
26.3
Lecce
25.5
Udinese
25.1
Lazio
24.9
Sassuolo
24.7
Torino
24.6
Parma
24.4
Inter
24.1
Napoli
23.5
Juventus
23.1
Atalanta
21.9
AC Milan
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
37.1%
@ 1.92-11.6%
Under 9.5
62.9%
@ 1.83+11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.02
Betfair
2.00
Betano
1.98
Unibet
1.94
Superbet
1.92
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathonbet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Betano
1.85
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
49.6%
@ 2.08+4.9%
Under 3.5
50.4%
@ 1.68-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.32
Pinnacle
2.20
Unibet
2.17
Betano
2.15
1xBet
1.83
Under
1xBet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Pinnacle
1.66
Betano
1.65
Unibet
1.58
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
63.5%
@ 1.43-0.1%
Under 21.5
36.5%
@ 2.50+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.43
Under
1xBet
2.50
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Atalanta or Draw✓ Hit
78.9%
Avg Implied 83.2% · @ 1.14
Edge
-4.3%
58%
26%
17%
covers Atalanta + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Atalanta or Sassuolo✓ Hit
70.4%
Avg Implied 77.9% · @ 1.22
Edge
-7.5%
58%
26%
17%
covers Atalanta + Sassuolo
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Draw or Sassuolo✗ Miss
50.7%
Avg Implied 38.9% · @ 2.43
Edge
+11.8%
58%
26%
17%
covers Draw + Sassuolo
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
2.50
SBO
2.49
1xBet
2.48
Unibet
2.48
Superbet
2.47
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Atalanta over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.8%
@ 1.10-8.9%
Under
24.2%
@ 6.08+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
888Sport
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
Under
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
6.25
1xBet
6.00
888Sport
6.00
Atalanta over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
41.4%
@ 1.58-17.7%
Under
58.6%
@ 2.28+17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.61
Pinnacle
1.60
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.58
Under
Pinnacle
2.36
10Bet
2.35
1xBet
2.30
Marathonbet
2.30
Unibet
2.28
Atalanta over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
17.1%
@ 2.82-16.0%
Under
82.9%
@ 1.39+16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.93
Betfair
2.88
BetVictor
2.88
888Sport
2.88
1xBet
2.84
Under
Marathonbet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Betano
1.40
Atalanta over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.6%
@ 5.76-10.6%
Under
94.4%
@ 1.11+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
888Sport
6.00
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.65
Marathonbet
5.65
Under
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Sassuolo over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
56.9%
@ 1.55-3.0%
Under
43.1%
@ 2.32+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.58
Unibet
1.58
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.56
1xBet
1.55
Under
Pinnacle
2.42
Betfair
2.40
Betano
2.40
Superbet
2.32
888Sport
2.30
Sassuolo over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
20.7%
@ 3.73-4.4%
Under
79.3%
@ 1.25+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.89
Unibet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
1xBet
3.80
Under
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Sassuolo over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
5.4%
@ 10.67-3.5%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.04+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
888Sport
12.00
1xBet
10.50
Marathonbet
10.50
Superbet
10.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
Sassuolo over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.1%
@ 26.33-2.6%
Under
98.9%
@ 1.01+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
34.00
Superbet
32.00
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Atalanta, so a minus line means Atalanta give that many goals of a start and Sassuolo receive them. At -1, Atalanta must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Atalanta win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Atalanta)Actual: Sassuolo
Atalanta -2
9.6%
@ 4.41-10.7%
Draw -2
15.3%
@ 4.39-5.1%
Sassuolo +2
75.0%
@ 1.51+15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Unibet
4.30
Draw
Superbet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
10Bet
4.20
Away
Superbet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Unibet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.51
Handicap -1 (Atalanta)Actual: Draw
Atalanta -1
25.0%
@ 2.38-12.8%
Draw -1
24.3%
@ 3.56-0.9%
Sassuolo +1
50.7%
@ 2.44+13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
2.45
Betfair
2.40
Bet365
2.40
Marathonbet
2.39
10Bet
2.35
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Betfair
3.50
Unibet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
Away
Marathonbet
2.50
10Bet
2.45
Superbet
2.45
Unibet
2.45
Betfair
2.40
Handicap +1 (Atalanta)Actual: Atalanta
Atalanta +1
78.9%
@ 1.12-0.3%
Draw +1
13.9%
@ 6.75+0.8%
Sassuolo -1
7.1%
@ 11.74-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
6.50
Marathonbet
4.25
Away
Betfair
14.00
10Bet
13.00
Bet365
13.00
Unibet
12.50
Marathonbet
6.20
Handicap +2 (Atalanta)Actual: Atalanta
Atalanta +2
92.9%
@ 1.02+0.2%
Draw +2
5.4%
@ 18.50+0.3%
Sassuolo -2
1.7%
@ 42.50-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.01
Draw
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
18.00
Away
Betfair
51.00
Bet365
34.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Atalanta
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.47
0.67
0.33
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.43
0.67
0.17
0.50
0.62
vs Weaker (14)
0.71
0.29
0.75
0.12
0.67
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Sassuolo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sassuolo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.80
0.80
0.33
0.47
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.67
0.50
0.75
0.40
0.60
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.62
0.91
0.82
0.30
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Atalanta) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
66.6%
@ 1.31-4.9%
Under 0.5
33.4%
@ 3.29+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
Superbet
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.60
Superbet
3.45
Bet365
3.40
William Hil
3.30
BetVictor
3.25
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
31.8%
@ 2.49-5.9%
Under 1.5
68.2%
@ 1.51+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.61
Pinnacle
2.58
Marathonbet
2.53
1xBet
2.53
Betano
2.52
Under
Superbet
1.55
Betano
1.53
William Hil
1.53
Pinnacle
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.2%
@ 5.91-5.6%
Under 2.5
89.8%
@ 1.11+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
BetVictor
6.50
William Hil
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Unibet
5.80
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
10Bet
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Atalanta over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
52.0%
@ 1.58-6.9%
Under
48.0%
@ 2.27+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
Pinnacle
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Unibet
1.57
Superbet
1.56
Under
Pinnacle
2.37
10Bet
2.35
Superbet
2.27
Unibet
2.23
Betano
2.20
Atalanta over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
15.7%
@ 3.81-8.6%
Under
84.3%
@ 1.23+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.92
1xBet
3.92
Unibet
3.85
Betano
3.85
10Bet
3.65
Under
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
Atalanta over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.5%
@ 9.48-6.3%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.03+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
10.00
Superbet
9.70
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Unibet
1.01
Sassuolo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
34.1%
@ 2.75+0.3%
Under
65.9%
@ 1.41-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.93
10Bet
2.80
Unibet
2.80
1xBet
2.69
Marathonbet
2.69
Under
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.41
1xBet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
Sassuolo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.3%
@ 9.99-3.0%
Under
93.7%
@ 1.02+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
10.70
Superbet
10.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
Sassuolo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.6%
@ 30.00-2.6%
Under
99.4%
@ 1.01+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
45.00
Betano
15.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Atalanta
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.70
0.73
0.80
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.64
0.83
1.00
0.50
0.38
vs Weaker (14)
0.79
0.43
0.62
0.38
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Sassuolo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sassuolo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.60
0.67
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.80
0.60
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.62
0.64
0.36
0.80
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Atalanta) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.8%
@ 1.20-0.8%
Under 0.5
22.2%
@ 4.38+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Under
Superbet
4.55
Marathonbet
4.50
1xBet
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Betano
4.35
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
39.5%
@ 1.92-9.4%
Under 1.5
60.5%
@ 1.84+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.95
Superbet
1.95
888Sport
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.94
Under
Marathonbet
1.89
1xBet
1.89
Betano
1.87
Superbet
1.85
888Sport
1.80
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.8%
@ 3.87-8.4%
Under 2.5
84.2%
@ 1.23+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
4.00
888Sport
4.00
Unibet
3.80
Under
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.22
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Atalanta over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
62.2%
@ 1.41-3.8%
Under
37.8%
@ 2.73+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.41
1xBet
1.40
Under
1xBet
2.75
Superbet
2.72
Betano
2.72
Atalanta over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
20.9%
@ 2.87-11.5%
Under
79.1%
@ 1.37+11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.90
Betano
2.87
1xBet
2.85
Marathonbet
2.84
Under
Betano
1.39
Marathonbet
1.37
1xBet
1.37
Superbet
1.36
Atalanta over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.7%
@ 6.97-7.5%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.07+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.30
Superbet
7.10
Betano
6.50
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.04
Sassuolo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
39.9%
@ 2.21-2.1%
Under
60.1%
@ 1.60+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.24
Marathonbet
2.23
Superbet
2.22
Betano
2.15
Under
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.59
Superbet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.58
Sassuolo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.9%
@ 7.33-3.7%
Under
91.1%
@ 1.06+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.90
Marathonbet
7.70
Superbet
7.30
Betano
6.40
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Sassuolo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 19.75-3.2%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
27.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.2%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Betfair
1.03
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.5%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Unibet
1.01
-
-
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
94.6%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.4%
1.11
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
+10.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.3%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.04
-
-
+7.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.7%
1.02
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
92.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.01
-
-
-
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
92.1%
1.15
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
888Sport
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
+10.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
91.1%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.8%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
10Bet
1.11
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
84.3%
1.23
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
+8.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.2%
1.23
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.22
+8.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
83.7%
1.17
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.11
-
-
+4.5%
-
Under 11.5 corners
83.3%
1.28
Superbet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Unibet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
+11.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
82.9%
1.39
Marathonbet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Betano
1.40
+16.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
79.3%
1.25
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.25
Superbet
1.25
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.1%
1.37
Betano
1.39
Marathonbet
1.37
1xBet
1.37
Superbet
1.36
-
+11.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
78.9%
1.14
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
-4.3%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
78.9%
1.12
Marathonbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.8%
1.20
William Hil
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
75.8%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
888Sport
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
-8.9%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
75.0%
1.51
Superbet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Unibet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.51
+15.8%
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
74.3%
1.52
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.55
Superbet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.51
1xBet
1.49
+13.2%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.2%
1.21
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
-3.6%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.8%
1.44
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Bet365
1.44
+8.4%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
70.7%
1.55
Superbet
1.60
1xBet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Pinnacle
1.53
Betano
1.53
+10.8%
-
Home or Away
70.4%
1.22
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
-7.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Atalanta
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Giacomo Raspadori25%
Gianluca Scamacca25%
Nikola Krstović25%
Lazar Samardžić25%
Gianluca Gaetano0%
Sead Kolašinac0%
Mario Pašalić0%
Éderson0%
Marco Carnesecchi0%
Odilon Kossounou0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Charles De Ketelaere0%
Nicola Zalewski0%
Lorenzo Bernasconi0%
Giorgio Scalvini0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Giacomo Raspadori25%
Nikola Krstović25%
Gianluca Gaetano0%
Sead Kolašinac0%
Mario Pašalić0%
Éderson0%
Marco Carnesecchi0%
Gianluca Scamacca0%
Odilon Kossounou0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Charles De Ketelaere0%
Lazar Samardžić0%
Nicola Zalewski0%
Lorenzo Bernasconi0%
Giorgio Scalvini0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Gianluca Gaetano25%
Nicola Zalewski25%
Sead Kolašinac0%
Mario Pašalić0%
Éderson0%
Marco Carnesecchi0%
Giacomo Raspadori0%
Gianluca Scamacca0%
Odilon Kossounou0%
Nikola Krstović0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Charles De Ketelaere0%
Lazar Samardžić0%
Lorenzo Bernasconi0%
Giorgio Scalvini0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nikola Krstović50%
Lazar Samardžić25%
Gianluca Gaetano0%
Sead Kolašinac0%
Mario Pašalić0%
Éderson0%
Marco Carnesecchi0%
Giacomo Raspadori0%
Gianluca Scamacca0%
Odilon Kossounou0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Charles De Ketelaere0%
Nicola Zalewski0%
Lorenzo Bernasconi0%
Giorgio Scalvini0%
Sassuolo
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. Volpato50%
C. Odenthal33%
Vasilije Adžić33%
Luca Lipani33%
Benjamín Domínguez25%
Arijanet Murić0%
N. Matić0%
Armand Laurienté0%
K. Thorstvedt0%
Kieron Bowie0%
Josh Doig0%
F. Leysen0%
D. Bakola0%
Simone Cinquegrano0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
N. Matić33%
Armand Laurienté25%
C. Volpato25%
Arijanet Murić0%
K. Thorstvedt0%
Kieron Bowie0%
C. Odenthal0%
Josh Doig0%
F. Leysen0%
Vasilije Adžić0%
Luca Lipani0%
Benjamín Domínguez0%
D. Bakola0%
Simone Cinquegrano0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Josh Doig33%
F. Leysen33%
Vasilije Adžić33%
Simone Cinquegrano33%
D. Bakola25%
Arijanet Murić0%
N. Matić0%
Armand Laurienté0%
K. Thorstvedt0%
Kieron Bowie0%
C. Odenthal0%
C. Volpato0%
Luca Lipani0%
Benjamín Domínguez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Armand Laurienté75%
Kieron Bowie25%
Benjamín Domínguez25%
Arijanet Murić0%
N. Matić0%
K. Thorstvedt0%
C. Odenthal0%
Josh Doig0%
F. Leysen0%
Vasilije Adžić0%
C. Volpato0%
Luca Lipani0%
D. Bakola0%
Simone Cinquegrano0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
COM (34)
€488m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
PAR (28)
€142m
CAG (31)
€134m
VEN (36)
€117m
FRO (33)
€84m
LEC (31)
€72m
MON (29)
€70m
Atalanta's squad is €244m more valuable than Sassuolo's (€438m vs €194m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COM (13)
€261m
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
VEN (9)
€39m
PAR (8)
€35m
FRO (8)
€34m
MON (11)
€26m
LEC (9)
€20m
Atalanta's attack is €68m more valuable than Sassuolo's (€158m vs €90m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
COM (7)
€83m
PAR (8)
€60m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
VEN (11)
€31m
CAG (9)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
MON (7)
€24m
LEC (8)
€16m
Atalanta's midfield is €75m more valuable than Sassuolo's (€128m vs €53m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
COM (14)
€144m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
VEN (16)
€47m
PAR (12)
€46m
LEC (14)
€37m
FRO (14)
€24m
MON (11)
€20m
Atalanta's defence is €100m more valuable than Sassuolo's (€153m vs €52m).
Italy: Serie A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
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AS Roma
Inter
AC Milan
Juventus
Lazio
Udinese
Como
Frosinone
Napoli
Cagliari
Lecce
Torino
Bologna
Parma
Genoa
Monza
Venezia
Fiorentina