This opponent (Estrela) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estrela
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.70
1.43
1.57
0.44
1.81
vs Stronger (11)
0.55
2.36
1.00
2.75
0.29
2.14
vs Similar (19)
1.11
1.32
1.60
1.10
0.56
1.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.2%
Under 1.5
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.3%
Under 2.5
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.9%
Under 3.5
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
41.4%
No
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
14.4%
3-0
11.7%
1-0
11.1%
2-1
8.5%
1-1
7.7%
4-0
7.1%
3-1
6.9%
0-0
5.5%
Benfica goals ↓
Estrela goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
1
11%
7.7%
2.1%
0.4%
0.1%
2
14%
8.5%
2.5%
0.5%
0.1%
3
12%
6.9%
2.0%
0.4%
0.1%
4
7.1%
4.2%
1.2%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Benfica goals (down), columns = Estrela goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Benfica
2.71
Sporting CP
2.43
Rebordosa
2.40
Santa Clara
2.33
Alverca
2.33
Anadia
2.33
GIL Vicente
2.25
SC Braga
2.25
Amarante
2.25
Oliveira Hospital
2.25
São João Ver
2.17
Tirsense
2.14
Guimaraes
2.00
Moreirense
2.00
Chaves
2.00
Farense
2.00
Casa Pia
2.00
Penafiel
2.00
Torreense
2.00
União de Leiria
2.00
Leixoes
2.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.00
CF Os Belenenses
2.00
SC Covilha
2.00
Atlético CP
2.00
União Santarém
2.00
Moncarapachense
2.00
Maria da Fonte
2.00
Varzim
2.00
Alpendorada
2.00
Moura
2.00
Operário
2.00
Lusitânia
1.75
Vila Real
1.75
Cinfães
1.75
Brito
1.75
O Elvas
1.60
Arouca
1.50
Pacos Ferreira
1.50
Academica
1.50
Portimonense
1.50
Famalicao
1.50
AVS
1.50
FC Porto
1.50
Mafra
1.50
Vilaverdense
1.50
1º Dezembro
1.50
Vianense
1.50
Pevidem
1.50
Amora
1.50
Pombal
1.50
Os Limianos
1.50
Paredes
1.50
Pêro Pinheiro
1.50
Os Marialvas
1.50
Guarda
1.50
Gondomar
1.50
Alcains
1.50
Lagoa
1.50
Sintrense
1.50
Sandinenses
1.50
Ferreira Zêzere
1.50
Machico
1.50
Mortágua
1.50
FC Serpa
1.50
Louletano
1.50
Sertanense
1.50
Régua
1.50
CF Benfica
1.50
Vieira
1.50
Estrela Vendas Novas
1.50
Arronches e Benfica
1.50
Aliança de Gandra
1.50
Atlético Arcos
1.50
Rio Ave
1.33
Sanjoanense
1.33
Caldas
1.33
Lusitano Évora 1911
1.25
Estoril
1.00
Academico Viseu
1.00
Lajense
1.00
Leça
1.00
AD Marco 09
1.00
Ovarense
1.00
Marinhense
1.00
Beira-Mar
1.00
Fátima
1.00
Joane
1.00
Estrela
0.50
União de Coimbra
0.50
Tondela
0.00
Boavista
0.00
Nacional
0.00
Maritimo
0.00
Feirense
0.00
Vizela
0.00
Felgueiras 1932
0.00
Oliveirense
0.00
Trofense
0.00
União Lamas
0.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.00
Fafe
0.00
Viana Alentejo
0.00
Dumiense
0.00
Olímpico do Montijo
0.00
Camacha
0.00
Tocha
0.00
Peniche
0.00
Coimbrões
0.00
Eléctrico
0.00
Monção
0.00
Castrense
0.00
Sacavenense
0.00
Bragança
0.00
Comércio Indústria
0.00
O Grandolense
0.00
Académico do Fundão
0.00
Maia Lidador
0.00
São Roque (Açores)
0.00
Macedo Cavaleiros
0.00
Juventude Gaula
0.00
Ginásio Figueirense
0.00
Estarreja
0.00
Valpaços
0.00
UD da Serra
0.00
Resende (Portugal)
0.00
Lagos
0.00
Cardielense
0.00
Praia Milfontes
0.00
Vinhais
0.00
Vila Cortez
0.00
Pedrógão São Pedro
0.00
Oliveira de Frades
0.00
Vieirense
0.00
Velense
0.00
Rabo Peixe
0.00
Ferreiras
0.00
Fabril Barreiro
0.00
FC Barreirense
0.00
Portel
0.00
Salgueiros
0.00
Abrantes e Benfica
0.00
Pedras Salgadas
0.00
Gavionenses
0.00
Madalena
0.00
Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol
0.00
Benfica is 2.21 points better than Estrela in terms of average points per game (2.71 vs 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Estarreja
4.00
Benfica
3.29
Arouca
3.00
Vizela
3.00
Casa Pia
3.00
Penafiel
3.00
Amarante
3.00
SC Covilha
3.00
Comércio Indústria
3.00
Valpaços
3.00
Alverca
2.67
Anadia
2.67
Vilaverdense
2.50
Os Limianos
2.50
Guarda
2.50
Alcains
2.50
FC Serpa
2.50
CF Benfica
2.50
Farense
2.33
Sanjoanense
2.33
Moncarapachense
2.33
Cinfães
2.25
Sporting CP
2.14
Guimaraes
2.00
Portimonense
2.00
AVS
2.00
FC Porto
2.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.00
Dumiense
2.00
Coimbrões
2.00
Paredes
2.00
Atlético CP
2.00
Oliveira Hospital
2.00
São João Ver
2.00
Rebordosa
2.00
Leça
2.00
Castrense
2.00
Alpendorada
2.00
Louletano
2.00
Beira-Mar
2.00
Sertanense
2.00
Vila Cortez
2.00
FC Barreirense
2.00
CF Os Belenenses
1.67
União Santarém
1.67
Varzim
1.67
Moura
1.67
Rio Ave
1.50
Pacos Ferreira
1.50
SC Braga
1.50
Torreense
1.50
1º Dezembro
1.50
Vianense
1.50
Pombal
1.50
Os Marialvas
1.50
Lusitânia
1.50
Ferreira Zêzere
1.50
Machico
1.50
Mortágua
1.50
Régua
1.50
Estrela Vendas Novas
1.50
Arronches e Benfica
1.50
Moreirense
1.33
Chaves
1.33
União de Leiria
1.33
GIL Vicente
1.25
Lusitano Évora 1911
1.25
O Elvas
1.20
Tirsense
1.14
Tondela
1.00
Nacional
1.00
Maritimo
1.00
Academica
1.00
Santa Clara
1.00
Famalicao
1.00
Academico Viseu
1.00
Leixoes
1.00
Oliveirense
1.00
Mafra
1.00
União Lamas
1.00
Fafe
1.00
Viana Alentejo
1.00
Pevidem
1.00
Olímpico do Montijo
1.00
Tocha
1.00
Lajense
1.00
Maria da Fonte
1.00
Lagoa
1.00
Sintrense
1.00
Sandinenses
1.00
AD Marco 09
1.00
Monção
1.00
Ovarense
1.00
Bragança
1.00
Maia Lidador
1.00
São Roque (Açores)
1.00
União de Coimbra
1.00
Cardielense
1.00
Vinhais
1.00
Pedrógão São Pedro
1.00
Vieirense
1.00
Velense
1.00
Vieira
1.00
Fabril Barreiro
1.00
Operário
1.00
Aliança de Gandra
1.00
Atlético Arcos
1.00
Salgueiros
1.00
Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol
1.00
Vila Real
0.75
Brito
0.75
Caldas
0.67
Estrela
0.50
Amora
0.50
Pêro Pinheiro
0.50
Gondomar
0.50
Estoril
0.00
Boavista
0.00
Feirense
0.00
Felgueiras 1932
0.00
Trofense
0.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.00
Camacha
0.00
Peniche
0.00
Eléctrico
0.00
Sacavenense
0.00
Marinhense
0.00
Fátima
0.00
O Grandolense
0.00
Académico do Fundão
0.00
Macedo Cavaleiros
0.00
Juventude Gaula
0.00
Ginásio Figueirense
0.00
UD da Serra
0.00
Resende (Portugal)
0.00
Lagos
0.00
Praia Milfontes
0.00
Joane
0.00
Oliveira de Frades
0.00
Rabo Peixe
0.00
Ferreiras
0.00
Portel
0.00
Abrantes e Benfica
0.00
Pedras Salgadas
0.00
Gavionenses
0.00
Madalena
0.00
Benfica is 2.79 goals better than Estrela in terms of goals scored per game (3.29 vs 0.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Estoril
0.00
Marinhense
0.00
Fátima
0.00
Joane
0.00
Operário
0.00
GIL Vicente
0.25
Benfica
0.29
Santa Clara
0.33
Academica
0.50
Famalicao
0.50
Atlético CP
0.50
Gondomar
0.50
Vila Real
0.50
Brito
0.50
FC Serpa
0.50
Alpendorada
0.50
Arronches e Benfica
0.50
Sporting CP
0.57
Varzim
0.67
Caldas
0.67
SC Braga
0.75
São João Ver
0.83
Guimaraes
1.00
Moreirense
1.00
Arouca
1.00
Boavista
1.00
Feirense
1.00
Chaves
1.00
Casa Pia
1.00
FC Porto
1.00
Academico Viseu
1.00
Felgueiras 1932
1.00
Torreense
1.00
União de Leiria
1.00
Leixoes
1.00
CF Os Belenenses
1.00
Mafra
1.00
União Santarém
1.00
Anadia
1.00
Lagoa
1.00
Rebordosa
1.00
AD Marco 09
1.00
Ferreira Zêzere
1.00
Ovarense
1.00
Machico
1.00
Louletano
1.00
UD da Serra
1.00
Vieira
1.00
Moura
1.00
Estrela Vendas Novas
1.00
Aliança de Gandra
1.00
Portel
1.00
O Elvas
1.20
Lusitano Évora 1911
1.25
Oliveira Hospital
1.25
Alverca
1.33
Sanjoanense
1.33
Moncarapachense
1.33
Tirsense
1.43
Rio Ave
1.50
Pacos Ferreira
1.50
Portimonense
1.50
AVS
1.50
Penafiel
1.50
1º Dezembro
1.50
Pevidem
1.50
Pêro Pinheiro
1.50
Os Marialvas
1.50
Alcains
1.50
Sandinenses
1.50
Lusitânia
1.50
Mortágua
1.50
Régua
1.50
Atlético Arcos
1.50
SC Covilha
1.67
Cinfães
1.75
Tondela
2.00
Nacional
2.00
Maritimo
2.00
Farense
2.00
Amarante
2.00
Lusitânia Lourosa
2.00
Oliveirense
2.00
União Lamas
2.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
2.00
Viana Alentejo
2.00
Vianense
2.00
Olímpico do Montijo
2.00
Camacha
2.00
Peniche
2.00
Eléctrico
2.00
Maria da Fonte
2.00
Sintrense
2.00
Leça
2.00
Monção
2.00
Sacavenense
2.00
Bragança
2.00
Beira-Mar
2.00
Sertanense
2.00
Académico do Fundão
2.00
Maia Lidador
2.00
São Roque (Açores)
2.00
União de Coimbra
2.00
Cardielense
2.00
Vinhais
2.00
Velense
2.00
Fabril Barreiro
2.00
Salgueiros
2.00
Abrantes e Benfica
2.00
Pedras Salgadas
2.00
Madalena
2.00
Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol
2.00
Vilaverdense
2.50
Amora
2.50
Pombal
2.50
Os Limianos
2.50
Guarda
2.50
Lajense
2.67
Trofense
3.00
Dumiense
3.00
Coimbrões
3.00
Paredes
3.00
O Grandolense
3.00
Macedo Cavaleiros
3.00
Juventude Gaula
3.00
Resende (Portugal)
3.00
Lagos
3.00
Pedrógão São Pedro
3.00
Oliveira de Frades
3.00
Rabo Peixe
3.00
Ferreiras
3.00
FC Barreirense
3.00
Gavionenses
3.00
CF Benfica
3.50
Vizela
4.00
Estrela
4.00
Fafe
4.00
Tocha
4.00
Castrense
4.00
Comércio Indústria
4.00
Vila Cortez
4.00
Vieirense
4.00
Ginásio Figueirense
5.00
Estarreja
5.00
Valpaços
5.00
Praia Milfontes
5.00
Benfica is 3.71 goals better than Estrela in terms of goals conceded per game (0.29 vs 4.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Sporting CP
59%
Rio Ave
42%
Benfica
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Benfica
For 5.0 · Against 3.7 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 2.3 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 9.4 · Total 19.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Estrela
For 4.8 · Against 5.5 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 16.7 · Total 30.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Benfica
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.4
10.9
4.5
4.3
4.8
22.1
22.6
21.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
9.3
7.6
11.5
6.0
5.8
6.2
21.3
20.6
22.2
vs Weaker (41)
10.9
11.0
10.7
4.2
4.0
4.5
22.2
23.0
21.4
% over line
59%
58%
61%
62%
62%
62%
53%
54%
52%
% under line
41%
42%
39%
38%
38%
38%
47%
46%
48%
This opponent (Estrela) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estrela
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
10.6
11.1
4.5
4.5
4.6
26.2
27.2
25.2
vs Stronger (17)
11.4
10.2
12.4
4.9
5.4
4.4
26.2
27.9
24.7
vs Similar (33)
10.5
10.8
10.2
4.4
4.1
4.7
26.2
26.8
25.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
64%
62%
65%
66%
72%
60%
83%
79%
87%
% under line
36%
38%
35%
34%
28%
40%
17%
21%
13%
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Farense
11.7
Nacional
11.5
Guimaraes
11.5
Feirense
11.2
Oliveirense
11.1
Tondela
10.9
AVS
10.8
Vilaverdense
10.8
Portimonense
10.7
Estrela
10.7
Rio Ave
10.7
Benfica
10.6
Estoril
10.6
SC Covilha
10.6
Trofense
10.6
Torreense
10.5
Penafiel
10.4
União de Leiria
10.3
Academico Viseu
10.2
Chaves
10.2
FC Porto
10.2
Arouca
10.0
Mafra
10.0
SC Braga
9.9
Casa Pia
9.9
Famalicao
9.9
Vizela
9.8
Leixoes
9.8
Pacos Ferreira
9.7
Maritimo
9.6
CF Os Belenenses
9.3
Boavista
9.3
Moreirense
9.3
Sporting CP
8.9
GIL Vicente
8.8
Santa Clara
8.6
Felgueiras 1932
8.5
Alverca
7.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Trofense
7.1
FC Porto
6.3
Santa Clara
6.3
Famalicao
6.1
Boavista
6.0
Maritimo
5.9
Guimaraes
5.9
Chaves
5.8
Felgueiras 1932
5.7
Arouca
5.6
Oliveirense
5.5
Estoril
5.4
SC Covilha
5.4
Rio Ave
5.4
AVS
5.4
Penafiel
5.4
Leixoes
5.3
Portimonense
5.2
Pacos Ferreira
5.2
Nacional
5.2
União de Leiria
5.2
Vizela
5.1
SC Braga
5.0
Tondela
5.0
Torreense
5.0
Estrela
4.9
Moreirense
4.9
Vilaverdense
4.8
Feirense
4.8
Farense
4.7
Benfica
4.7
Sporting CP
4.7
GIL Vicente
4.7
Academico Viseu
4.6
Lusitânia Lourosa
4.5
Casa Pia
4.4
Mafra
4.4
CF Os Belenenses
4.1
Alverca
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Trofense
32.3
Famalicao
30.8
Pacos Ferreira
29.6
Rio Ave
29.3
Santa Clara
29.1
Vilaverdense
28.5
Leixoes
28.3
SC Covilha
28.2
Moreirense
28.0
Boavista
27.9
FC Porto
27.8
Nacional
27.6
Guimaraes
27.2
Maritimo
27.2
Chaves
27.2
Farense
26.9
Casa Pia
26.7
AVS
26.6
Oliveirense
26.6
Vizela
26.4
GIL Vicente
26.4
Arouca
26.3
Estoril
26.2
Estrela
26.1
Tondela
25.7
Portimonense
25.7
Penafiel
25.6
Torreense
25.1
CF Os Belenenses
25.0
Feirense
24.7
União de Leiria
24.5
SC Braga
24.3
Mafra
24.2
Sporting CP
24.0
Academico Viseu
23.6
Benfica
22.0
Alverca
12.9
Felgueiras 1932
11.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
58.9%
Under 9.5
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
57.5%
Under 3.5
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
54.7%
Under 21.5
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Benfica or Draw✓ Hit
93.6%
Avg Implied -
77%
16%
6%
covers Benfica + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Benfica or Estrela✓ Hit
83.8%
Avg Implied -
77%
16%
6%
covers Benfica + Estrela
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Estrela✗ Miss
22.5%
Avg Implied -
77%
16%
6%
covers Draw + Estrela
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Benfica over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
91.3%
Under
8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
70.0%
Under
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
44.0%
Under
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
22.9%
Under
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estrela over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
44.6%
Under
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estrela over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
11.9%
Under
88.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estrela over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estrela over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.3%
Under
99.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Benfica, so a minus line means Benfica give that many goals of a start and Estrela receive them. At -1, Benfica must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Benfica win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Benfica)Actual: Benfica
Benfica -2
32.9%
Draw -2
22.6%
Estrela +2
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Benfica)Actual: Benfica
Benfica -1
55.6%
Draw -1
21.9%
Estrela +1
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Benfica)Actual: Benfica
Benfica +1
93.6%
Draw +1
4.8%
Estrela -1
1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Benfica)Actual: Benfica
Benfica +2
98.4%
Draw +2
1.3%
Estrela -2
0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Benfica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.50
1.27
0.60
0.67
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.86
0.67
1.00
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (23)
1.04
0.39
1.42
0.50
0.64
0.27
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Estrela) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estrela
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.80
0.86
0.79
0.06
0.81
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
1.09
0.75
1.50
0.14
0.86
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.63
0.90
0.50
0.00
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Benfica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estrela over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estrela over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estrela over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Benfica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.47
1.80
0.13
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
1.00
1.00
2.33
0.33
0.00
1.50
vs Weaker (23)
1.17
0.30
1.67
0.08
0.64
0.55
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Estrela) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estrela
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.90
0.57
0.79
0.38
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
0.18
1.27
0.25
1.25
0.14
1.29
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.68
0.70
0.60
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Benfica) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Benfica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Benfica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estrela over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estrela over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estrela over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Benfica
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Vangelis Pavlidis42%
Marcos Leonardo33%
Kerem Aktürkoğlu27%
Ángel Di María26%
Tiago Gouveia25%
Orkun Kökçü24%
Zeki Amdouni20%
Arthur Cabral16%
Andrea Belotti15%
Nicolás Otamendi14%
Andreas Schjelderup9%
Bruma8%
Álvaro Carreras8%
Alexander Bah7%
Fredrik Aursnes6%
Benjamín Rollheiser6%
Florentino Luís5%
António Silva3%
Leandro Barreiro2%
Tomás Araújo2%
Renato Sanches0%
Anatoliy Trubin0%
Jan-Niklas Beste0%
Samuel Dahl0%
Issa Kaboré0%
Samuel Soares0%
Manuel Silva0%
João Rêgo0%
Gianluca Prestianni0%
Leandro Santos0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Álvaro Carreras35%
Issa Kaboré33%
Manuel Silva33%
Florentino Luís25%
Tiago Gouveia25%
Leandro Santos25%
Orkun Kökçü22%
Leandro Barreiro18%
Jan-Niklas Beste14%
Nicolás Otamendi14%
Alexander Bah14%
Ángel Di María13%
António Silva13%
Gianluca Prestianni12%
Benjamín Rollheiser12%
Renato Sanches11%
João Rêgo11%
Kerem Aktürkoğlu8%
Vangelis Pavlidis8%
Zeki Amdouni8%
Arthur Cabral6%
Fredrik Aursnes6%
Samuel Dahl6%
Tomás Araújo2%
Anatoliy Trubin2%
Bruma0%
Andrea Belotti0%
Samuel Soares0%
Marcos Leonardo0%
Andreas Schjelderup0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Manuel Silva33%
Samuel Dahl25%
Tiago Gouveia25%
Vangelis Pavlidis21%
Ángel Di María21%
Kerem Aktürkoğlu18%
Bruma17%
Orkun Kökçü16%
Fredrik Aursnes15%
Álvaro Carreras10%
Jan-Niklas Beste10%
Tomás Araújo7%
Alexander Bah7%
Nicolás Otamendi6%
Benjamín Rollheiser6%
Andreas Schjelderup6%
António Silva5%
Leandro Barreiro5%
Zeki Amdouni5%
Florentino Luís2%
Renato Sanches0%
Anatoliy Trubin0%
Arthur Cabral0%
Andrea Belotti0%
Issa Kaboré0%
Samuel Soares0%
Marcos Leonardo0%
João Rêgo0%
Gianluca Prestianni0%
Leandro Santos0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Vangelis Pavlidis31%
Ángel Di María28%
Tiago Gouveia25%
Kerem Aktürkoğlu20%
Bruma17%
Andrea Belotti15%
Arthur Cabral13%
Zeki Amdouni12%
Gianluca Prestianni12%
Orkun Kökçü12%
Andreas Schjelderup3%
António Silva3%
Leandro Barreiro2%
Fredrik Aursnes2%
Álvaro Carreras2%
Renato Sanches0%
Florentino Luís0%
Nicolás Otamendi0%
Anatoliy Trubin0%
Alexander Bah0%
Jan-Niklas Beste0%
Benjamín Rollheiser0%
Samuel Dahl0%
Issa Kaboré0%
Tomás Araújo0%
Samuel Soares0%
Marcos Leonardo0%
Manuel Silva0%
João Rêgo0%
Leandro Santos0%
Estrela
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kikas18%
Rodrigo Pinho15%
Nani11%
Tiago Gabriel9%
André Luiz8%
Jovane Cabral8%
Chico Banza8%
Leonel Bucca6%
Diogo Travassos4%
Paulo Moreira4%
Alan Ruiz4%
Léo Cordeiro4%
Ferro0%
Till Cissokho0%
Miguel Lopes0%
Renato Pantalon0%
Rúben Lima0%
Bruno Brígido0%
Amine Oudrhiri0%
João Costa0%
Nilton Varela0%
Danilo Veiga0%
Issiar Drame0%
Gustavo Henrique0%
Gerson Sousa0%
Fábio Ronaldo0%
Tiago Ferreira0%
Igor Jesus0%
Petterson0%
Guilherme Montóia0%
Manuel Keliano0%
Manu0%
Caio Santana0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Alan Ruiz46%
Nani33%
Guilherme Montóia33%
Manu33%
Manuel Keliano32%
Ferro32%
Chico Banza31%
Igor Jesus29%
Danilo Veiga27%
Leonel Bucca26%
Till Cissokho25%
Diogo Travassos24%
Miguel Lopes19%
Tiago Gabriel18%
Rodrigo Pinho18%
Gerson Sousa17%
Jovane Cabral15%
Issiar Drame14%
Nilton Varela14%
Rúben Lima12%
Caio Santana12%
Kikas12%
Paulo Moreira12%
Léo Cordeiro11%
Amine Oudrhiri9%
Renato Pantalon8%
André Luiz8%
Bruno Brígido0%
João Costa0%
Gustavo Henrique0%
Fábio Ronaldo0%
Tiago Ferreira0%
Petterson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Gustavo Henrique25%
Danilo Veiga13%
Rúben Lima8%
André Luiz8%
Alan Ruiz7%
Nilton Varela7%
Leonel Bucca6%
Manuel Keliano5%
Jovane Cabral4%
Léo Cordeiro4%
Kikas3%
Ferro0%
Till Cissokho0%
Miguel Lopes0%
Chico Banza0%
Renato Pantalon0%
Rodrigo Pinho0%
Bruno Brígido0%
Amine Oudrhiri0%
Nani0%
João Costa0%
Paulo Moreira0%
Issiar Drame0%
Gerson Sousa0%
Fábio Ronaldo0%
Tiago Ferreira0%
Igor Jesus0%
Diogo Travassos0%
Petterson0%
Guilherme Montóia0%
Manu0%
Tiago Gabriel0%
Caio Santana0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kikas18%
Rodrigo Pinho18%
Jovane Cabral12%
André Luiz8%
Chico Banza8%
Alan Ruiz7%
Léo Cordeiro7%
Leonel Bucca3%
Ferro0%
Till Cissokho0%
Miguel Lopes0%
Renato Pantalon0%
Rúben Lima0%
Bruno Brígido0%
Amine Oudrhiri0%
Nani0%
João Costa0%
Paulo Moreira0%
Nilton Varela0%
Danilo Veiga0%
Issiar Drame0%
Gustavo Henrique0%
Gerson Sousa0%
Fábio Ronaldo0%
Tiago Ferreira0%
Igor Jesus0%
Diogo Travassos0%
Petterson0%
Guilherme Montóia0%
Manuel Keliano0%
Manu0%
Tiago Gabriel0%
Caio Santana0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
ALV (30)
€39m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
CP (29)
€27m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
EST (22)
€20m
NAC (31)
€20m
TOR (32)
€19m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
FAR (24)
€8m
AVS (20)
€7m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
LL (19)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
ACA (11)
€2m
PF (13)
€2m
OLI (7)
€1m
AMA (6)
€1m
Benfica's squad is €337m more valuable than Estrela's (€357m vs €20m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ALV (8)
€15m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
CP (11)
€9m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
AV (11)
€8m
TOR (12)
€7m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
EST (6)
€6m
VIZ (13)
€5m
MOR (5)
€5m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (10)
€3m
AVS (8)
€3m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
ACA (6)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
LL (6)
€1m
PF (3)
€1m
AMA (1)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
Benfica's attack is €166m more valuable than Estrela's (€172m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
ALV (8)
€6m
CP (7)
€6m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
EST (5)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
CHA (5)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
FAR (3)
€2m
AVS (2)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
LL (2)
€1m
AMA (3)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
PEN (2)
€0m
ACA (1)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
Benfica's midfield is €74m more valuable than Estrela's (€77m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
ALV (14)
€18m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
CP (11)
€12m
EST (11)
€11m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
TOR (15)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (11)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
LL (11)
€3m
AVS (10)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
OLI (5)
€1m
ACA (4)
€1m
PF (8)
€1m
AMA (2)
€0m
Benfica's defence is €97m more valuable than Estrela's (€108m vs €11m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
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Sporting CP
FC Porto
SC Braga
Santa Clara
Guimaraes
Famalicao
Estoril
Casa Pia
Moreirense
Arouca
Rio Ave
GIL Vicente
Nacional
AVS
Farense
Boavista
Vizela