This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.03
1.27
0.93
0.87
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.90
1.00
1.00
0.90
0.80
1.10
vs Weaker (10)
1.40
1.10
1.80
1.00
1.00
1.20
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Bohemians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
66.7%
Under 1.5
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.6%
Under 2.5
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.7%
Under 3.5
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.5%
No
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
12.0%
0-1
11.3%
1-0 ✓
10.0%
1-2
7.8%
0-2
7.4%
2-1
7.1%
2-0
6.0%
Bohemians goals ↓
Derry City goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
11%
7.4%
2.9%
0.9%
1
10%
15%
7.8%
3.1%
0.9%
2
6.0%
7.1%
4.1%
1.6%
0.5%
3
2.1%
2.5%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.6%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Bohemians goals (down), columns = Derry City goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.83
Derry City
1.75
Shelbourne
1.64
Bohemians
1.50
St Patrick's Athl.
1.44
Drogheda United
1.42
Sligo Rovers
1.14
Waterford
1.14
Galway United
1.08
Cork City
0.67
Bray Wanderers
0.00
Bohemians is 0.25 points worse than Derry City in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.56
Derry City
1.44
Shelbourne
1.33
Bohemians
1.33
Sligo Rovers
1.17
St Patrick's Athl.
1.17
Waterford
1.16
Drogheda United
1.06
Galway United
1.03
Bray Wanderers
1.00
Cork City
0.92
Bohemians is 0.11 goals worse than Derry City in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.44).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Patrick's Athl.
0.89
Shamrock Rovers
0.92
Shelbourne
1.03
Drogheda United
1.06
Bohemians
1.08
Derry City
1.08
Galway United
1.22
Sligo Rovers
1.50
Waterford
1.65
Cork City
1.69
Bray Wanderers
2.00
Bohemians and Derry City are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.08).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
60%
Shelbourne
57%
Bohemians
56%
St Patrick's Athl.
54%
Derry City
54%
Sligo Rovers
49%
Waterford
47%
Cork City
46%
Galway United
41%
Drogheda United
36%
Bohemians is 2.7 percentage points better than Derry City in terms of average possession (56% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Bohemians
For 8.1 · Against 3.6 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 11.5 · Total 22.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Derry City
For 5.5 · Against 3.3 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 3.2 · Total 6.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 11.4 · Total 23.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bohemians
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
11.6
10.0
5.3
6.0
4.7
24.4
24.0
25.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (50)
10.8
11.6
10.0
5.3
6.0
4.7
24.4
24.0
25.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
57%
67%
48%
80%
88%
72%
70%
71%
70%
% under line
43%
33%
52%
20%
12%
28%
30%
29%
30%
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
9.0
8.5
4.9
5.0
4.9
24.6
23.7
25.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (36)
8.5
8.5
8.4
4.9
5.0
4.7
24.6
23.6
25.9
vs Weaker (14)
9.5
10.8
8.5
5.1
4.9
5.4
24.5
24.0
24.8
% over line
31%
35%
27%
78%
84%
72%
78%
65%
91%
% under line
69%
65%
73%
22%
16%
28%
22%
35%
9%
This opponent (Bohemians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bohemians
10.8
Cork City
10.5
Waterford
10.1
Sligo Rovers
9.9
Drogheda United
9.9
St Patrick's Athl.
9.8
Galway United
9.7
Shamrock Rovers
9.1
Shelbourne
8.8
Derry City
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Shelbourne
5.9
Bohemians
5.8
Derry City
5.6
Sligo Rovers
5.5
Waterford
5.4
Shamrock Rovers
5.3
Cork City
5.2
St Patrick's Athl.
5.2
Galway United
4.8
Drogheda United
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cork City
25.4
Sligo Rovers
25.0
Derry City
24.7
Waterford
24.7
Bohemians
24.3
Galway United
24.2
St Patrick's Athl.
23.6
Shelbourne
23.6
Drogheda United
22.4
Shamrock Rovers
22.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
57.3%
Under 9.5
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
85.7%
Under 3.5
14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
61.9%
Under 21.5
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Bohemians
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.57
0.57
0.64
0.56
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.57
0.57
0.57
0.64
0.56
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.53
0.40
0.53
0.33
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.30
0.65
0.30
0.60
0.30
0.70
vs Weaker (10)
0.50
0.30
0.60
0.40
0.40
0.20
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Bohemians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Bohemians over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bohemians over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bohemians over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Bohemians
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.64
0.64
0.62
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.63
0.60
0.64
0.64
0.62
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derry City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.87
0.40
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.35
0.70
0.30
0.50
0.40
vs Weaker (10)
0.90
0.80
1.20
0.60
0.60
1.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Bohemians) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Bohemians over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bohemians over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bohemians over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 4.5 cards
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Bohemians
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Douglas James-Taylor30%
James Clarke19%
Ross Tierney18%
Dawson Devoy16%
Lys Mousset12%
Sean Grehan12%
Archie Meekison12%
Dayle Rooney12%
Colm Whelan10%
James McManus9%
Jordan Flores6%
Rhys Brennan6%
Connor Parsons5%
Robert Cornwall4%
Keith Buckley4%
Niall Morahan3%
Adam McDonnell0%
Liam Smith0%
John Mountney0%
James Talbot0%
Cian Byrne0%
Kacper Chorążka0%
Jubril Okedina0%
Leigh Kavanagh0%
Markuss Strods0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dawson Devoy28%
Robert Cornwall25%
Dayle Rooney24%
Adam McDonnell23%
Cian Byrne23%
Leigh Kavanagh21%
James Clarke19%
Jordan Flores19%
Sean Grehan19%
Liam Smith15%
Niall Morahan15%
Rhys Brennan12%
Ross Tierney12%
John Mountney12%
Douglas James-Taylor10%
Connor Parsons10%
Colm Whelan10%
James McManus9%
Keith Buckley7%
Kacper Chorążka4%
Lys Mousset0%
Archie Meekison0%
James Talbot0%
Jubril Okedina0%
Markuss Strods0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dayle Rooney18%
Ross Tierney12%
Archie Meekison12%
Leigh Kavanagh11%
Douglas James-Taylor10%
James Clarke10%
Dawson Devoy9%
Keith Buckley4%
Colm Whelan3%
Adam McDonnell0%
Lys Mousset0%
Liam Smith0%
Jordan Flores0%
John Mountney0%
James Talbot0%
Robert Cornwall0%
Niall Morahan0%
Cian Byrne0%
Kacper Chorążka0%
Jubril Okedina0%
Connor Parsons0%
Sean Grehan0%
James McManus0%
Markuss Strods0%
Rhys Brennan0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ross Tierney33%
Douglas James-Taylor30%
James Clarke19%
Dayle Rooney18%
Dawson Devoy16%
Sean Grehan12%
Colm Whelan10%
Rhys Brennan6%
Leigh Kavanagh5%
Jordan Flores3%
Adam McDonnell0%
Lys Mousset0%
Archie Meekison0%
Liam Smith0%
John Mountney0%
James Talbot0%
Robert Cornwall0%
Keith Buckley0%
Niall Morahan0%
Cian Byrne0%
Kacper Chorążka0%
Jubril Okedina0%
Connor Parsons0%
James McManus0%
Markuss Strods0%
Derry City
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Afolabi Akinyemi43%
Michael Duffy35%
Danny Mullen24%
Liam Boyce22%
Alex Bannon17%
Gavin Whyte14%
Pat Hoban14%
Kevin Holt11%
Adam O'Reilly10%
Sadou Diallo10%
Brandon Fleming8%
Dominic Thomas8%
Ronan Boyce7%
Robbie Benson4%
Sam Todd3%
Mark Connolly3%
Carl Winchester0%
Shane Ferguson0%
Adam Frizzell0%
Paul McMullan0%
Jamie Stott0%
Cameron Dummigan0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Brian Maher0%
Ben Doherty0%
Hayden Cann0%
Sean Patton0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sadou Diallo48%
Adam O'Reilly45%
Carl Winchester40%
Jamie Stott40%
Ciaron Harkin40%
Shane Ferguson33%
Liam Boyce22%
Hayden Cann22%
Danny Mullen20%
Ben Doherty20%
Paul McMullan19%
Mark Connolly18%
Kevin Holt17%
Ronan Boyce17%
Alex Bannon17%
Robbie Benson15%
Michael Duffy15%
Pat Hoban14%
Sean Patton11%
Sam Todd10%
Dominic Thomas8%
Gavin Whyte7%
Brian Maher6%
Brandon Fleming0%
Adam Frizzell0%
Cameron Dummigan0%
Afolabi Akinyemi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Michael Duffy24%
Dominic Thomas23%
Brandon Fleming17%
Afolabi Akinyemi14%
Paul McMullan12%
Gavin Whyte11%
Jamie Stott10%
Shane Ferguson8%
Robbie Benson7%
Sam Todd7%
Carl Winchester7%
Liam Boyce4%
Hayden Cann4%
Danny Mullen4%
Ronan Boyce3%
Adam O'Reilly3%
Kevin Holt0%
Adam Frizzell0%
Mark Connolly0%
Cameron Dummigan0%
Pat Hoban0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Brian Maher0%
Ben Doherty0%
Sadou Diallo0%
Alex Bannon0%
Sean Patton0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Afolabi Akinyemi43%
Michael Duffy35%
Alex Bannon17%
Danny Mullen12%
Liam Boyce9%
Brandon Fleming8%
Dominic Thomas8%
Adam O'Reilly3%
Mark Connolly3%
Kevin Holt0%
Carl Winchester0%
Shane Ferguson0%
Gavin Whyte0%
Adam Frizzell0%
Paul McMullan0%
Jamie Stott0%
Cameron Dummigan0%
Robbie Benson0%
Pat Hoban0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Brian Maher0%
Sam Todd0%
Ben Doherty0%
Ronan Boyce0%
Sadou Diallo0%
Hayden Cann0%
Sean Patton0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
CC (2)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
Bohemians and Derry City have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
CC (2)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
Bohemians and Derry City have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
Bohemians and Derry City have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
CC (0)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
Bohemians and Derry City have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shamrock Rovers
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
Drogheda United
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
Galway United
Cork City
Bray Wanderers