The model favours an away win, with Rochdale projected to triumph 55 % of the time, a draw 25 %, and Braintree Town 19 %. The expected total of 2.8 goals points to a fairly open game, yet the most likely total is two goals, a 1-1 scoreline carrying a 12 % probability. Braintree’s home form shows a modest 0.71 goals per match and 1.0 conceded, while Rochdale’s away numbers are stronger, averaging 1.86 scored and 1.21 conceded against similar opposition. The suggested selections include an 81.1 % chance of under 5.5 cards, a 77.8 % probability of over 1.5 goals, and a 73.6 % likelihood of over 2.5 cards. Rochdale’s recent three defeats are mirrored by Braintree’s own losing streak, but the data still points to a 55 % edge for the visitors. The match is expected to be competitive, with the model’s pick clearly leaning toward Rochdale’s victory.
Results analysis
The match saw the predicted outcome confirmed as the away side claimed a 1-2 victory, extending their recent winless run into a positive result. The model had named the away team as the favourite with a 55 % probability, and this call proved correct. The final score of 1-2 matched the actual result, giving the model a clean win. The suggested selections also hit: Under 5.5 cards came in at 81.1 %, Over 1.5 goals at 77.8 %, and Over 2.5 cards at 73.6 %. All of the model’s picks performed as expected, underscoring the accuracy of the pre-match predictions.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Braintree Town win✗ Miss
19.4%
Avg Implied 8.9% · @ 10.21
Edge
+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.2%
Avg Implied 16.8% · @ 5.42
Edge
+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rochdale win✓ Hit
55.4%
Avg Implied 74.2% · @ 1.23
Edge
-18.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Braintree Town
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.63
0.67
1.13
0.93
2.13
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
3.33
0.00
3.00
1.00
3.50
vs Similar (27)
0.81
1.44
0.71
1.00
0.92
1.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Rochdale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rochdale
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.07
2.00
1.00
1.87
1.13
vs Stronger (1)
4.00
1.00
4.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.85
1.12
1.83
1.00
1.86
1.21
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.67
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Braintree Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.8%
Under 1.5
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.7%
@ 1.54-7.7%
Under 2.5
47.3%
@ 2.35+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.5%
Under 3.5
69.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.4%
No
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
0-1
10.0%
0-2
10.0%
1-2 ✓
9.9%
0-0
7.3%
0-3
6.0%
1-3
5.9%
2-1
5.4%
Braintree Town goals ↓
Rochdale goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.3%
10%
10.0%
6.0%
2.7%
1
5.0%
12%
9.9%
5.9%
2.7%
2
3.0%
5.4%
4.9%
2.9%
1.3%
3
1.0%
1.8%
1.6%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Braintree Town goals (down), columns = Rochdale goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
York
2.35
Rochdale
2.29
Carlisle
2.02
Boreham Wood
1.98
Scunthorpe
1.77
Forest Green
1.72
Southend
1.72
Halifax
1.52
Hartlepool
1.48
Woking
1.37
Tamworth
1.35
Boston Utd
1.28
Altrincham
1.24
Solihull
1.22
Wealdstone
1.22
Yeovil
1.11
Gateshead
1.09
Eastleigh
1.09
Sutton
1.02
Aldershot
1.00
Brackley Town
0.91
Morecambe
0.83
Braintree Town
0.78
Truro
0.74
Braintree Town is 1.51 points worse than Rochdale in terms of average points per game (0.78 vs 2.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
York
2.48
Boreham Wood
2.04
Rochdale
1.92
Carlisle
1.87
Southend
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Scunthorpe
1.69
Solihull
1.54
Halifax
1.50
Woking
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Wealdstone
1.48
Morecambe
1.43
Boston Utd
1.37
Tamworth
1.37
Sutton
1.28
Eastleigh
1.24
Altrincham
1.20
Gateshead
1.17
Hartlepool
1.17
Yeovil
1.04
Truro
0.91
Brackley Town
0.87
Braintree Town
0.83
Braintree Town is 1.09 goals worse than Rochdale in terms of goals scored per game (0.83 vs 1.92).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
York
0.89
Rochdale
0.92
Southend
1.02
Forest Green
1.13
Carlisle
1.13
Woking
1.17
Boreham Wood
1.24
Hartlepool
1.28
Scunthorpe
1.35
Altrincham
1.41
Halifax
1.43
Boston Utd
1.46
Yeovil
1.48
Tamworth
1.54
Solihull
1.57
Truro
1.57
Brackley Town
1.63
Braintree Town
1.65
Wealdstone
1.65
Sutton
1.72
Eastleigh
1.74
Aldershot
1.89
Gateshead
1.96
Morecambe
2.24
Braintree Town is 0.74 goals worse than Rochdale in terms of goals conceded per game (1.65 vs 0.92).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
York
62%
Boreham Wood
58%
Wealdstone
57%
Rochdale
56%
Sutton
54%
Aldershot
54%
Forest Green
53%
Southend
52%
Altrincham
52%
Gateshead
50%
Woking
50%
Scunthorpe
49%
Morecambe
49%
Carlisle
49%
Solihull
48%
Braintree Town
48%
Halifax
48%
Hartlepool
47%
Yeovil
47%
Truro
44%
Eastleigh
41%
Brackley Town
40%
Tamworth
38%
Braintree Town is 8.6 percentage points worse than Rochdale in terms of average possession (48% vs 56%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Braintree Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.67
0.33
0.40
0.20
0.93
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (27)
0.26
0.52
0.36
0.29
0.15
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Rochdale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rochdale
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.47
0.93
0.60
0.87
0.33
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.88
0.50
0.92
0.67
0.86
0.36
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Braintree Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Braintree Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Braintree Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Braintree Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rochdale over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rochdale over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rochdale over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Braintree Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.97
0.33
0.73
0.73
1.20
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (27)
0.56
0.93
0.36
0.71
0.77
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Rochdale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rochdale
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.60
1.07
0.40
1.00
0.80
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.96
0.62
0.92
0.33
1.00
0.86
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Braintree Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Braintree Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Braintree Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Braintree Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rochdale over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rochdale over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rochdale over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WEA (2)
€0m
MOR (2)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
ALT (2)
€0m
HAR (1)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
ROC (1)
€0m
BT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
Braintree Town and Rochdale have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SCU (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
ROC (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
YOR (0)
€0m
BT (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
HAR (0)
€0m
Braintree Town and Rochdale have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
SCU (0)
€0m
BU (0)
€0m
ROC (0)
€0m
YOR (0)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
BT (0)
€0m
HAR (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HAR (1)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
BT (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
SCU (0)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
ROC (0)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
ALT (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Braintree Town and Rochdale have a similar defence value (both €0m).
England: National League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →