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Carlisle vs Aldershot Result & Analysis

Date: 13/09/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 2-0
Carlisle
Carlisle
Vs
54%
23%
24%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Aldershot
Aldershot
England: National League
Referee: P Cooper

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Carlisle win✓ Hit
53.7%
Avg Implied 62.1% · @ 1.47
Edge
-8.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.7%
Avg Implied 20.7% · @ 4.42
Edge
+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aldershot win✗ Miss
23.6%
Avg Implied 17.2% · @ 5.30
Edge
+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

CarlisleCarlisle

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-523L22D20W33D11D10W50W12L10W30WA·CHE26/04H·SAL03/05A·WOK09/08H·BOR16/08H·SOL19/08A·WEA23/08H·BRA25/08A·SUT30/08A·BRA03/09H·TRU06/09← League TwoNational League →
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.301.801.471.001.13
vs Stronger (19)1.261.791.501.750.861.86
vs Similar (11)1.640.453.000.331.120.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AldershotAldershot

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-504L21W23L23L23L51W40W33D22D22DA·BAR26/04H·YEO05/05A·ALT09/08H·BOS16/08H·EAS20/08A·SOL23/08H·MOR25/08A·GAT30/08A·TRU03/09H·BRA06/09
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.901.932.131.531.672.33
vs Stronger (12)1.921.672.501.001.332.33
vs Similar (18)1.892.111.891.891.892.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Carlisle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%120%222%319%413%514%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.0%
Under 1.5
13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
67.3%
@ 1.46+3.8%
Under 2.5
32.7%
@ 2.54-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
45.7%
Under 3.5
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.2%
No
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.8%
2-1
9.4%
2-0 ✓
6.9%
3-1
6.6%
2-2
6.4%
1-2
6.1%
1-0
5.7%
3-0
4.9%
Carlisle goals ↓
Aldershot goals →
01234
04.0%3.3%2.9%1.3%0.4%
15.7%9.8%6.1%2.8%0.9%
26.9%9.4%6.4%2.9%1.0%
34.9%6.6%4.5%2.0%0.7%
42.6%3.5%2.4%1.1%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Carlisle goals (down), columns = Aldershot goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
York
2.35
Rochdale
2.29
Carlisle
2.04
Boreham Wood
1.90
Scunthorpe
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Southend
1.72
Halifax
1.52
Hartlepool
1.48
Woking
1.37
Tamworth
1.35
Boston Utd
1.28
Altrincham
1.24
Solihull
1.22
Wealdstone
1.22
Yeovil
1.11
Gateshead
1.09
Eastleigh
1.09
Sutton
1.02
Aldershot
1.00
Brackley Town
0.91
Morecambe
0.83
Braintree Town
0.78
Truro
0.74
Carlisle is 1.04 points better than Aldershot in terms of average points per game (2.04 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
York
2.48
Boreham Wood
2.00
Rochdale
1.92
Carlisle
1.87
Southend
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Scunthorpe
1.69
Solihull
1.54
Halifax
1.50
Woking
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Wealdstone
1.48
Morecambe
1.43
Boston Utd
1.37
Tamworth
1.37
Sutton
1.28
Eastleigh
1.24
Altrincham
1.20
Gateshead
1.17
Hartlepool
1.17
Yeovil
1.04
Truro
0.91
Brackley Town
0.87
Braintree Town
0.83
Carlisle is 0.37 goals better than Aldershot in terms of goals scored per game (1.87 vs 1.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
York
0.89
Rochdale
0.92
Southend
1.02
Forest Green
1.11
Carlisle
1.11
Woking
1.17
Boreham Wood
1.24
Hartlepool
1.28
Scunthorpe
1.35
Altrincham
1.41
Halifax
1.43
Boston Utd
1.46
Yeovil
1.48
Tamworth
1.54
Solihull
1.57
Truro
1.57
Brackley Town
1.63
Braintree Town
1.65
Wealdstone
1.65
Sutton
1.72
Eastleigh
1.74
Aldershot
1.89
Gateshead
1.96
Morecambe
2.24
Carlisle is 0.78 goals better than Aldershot in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 1.89).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
York
62%
Boreham Wood
58%
Wealdstone
57%
Rochdale
56%
Sutton
54%
Aldershot
54%
Forest Green
53%
Southend
52%
Altrincham
52%
Gateshead
50%
Woking
50%
Scunthorpe
49%
Morecambe
49%
Carlisle
49%
Solihull
48%
Braintree Town
48%
Halifax
48%
Hartlepool
47%
Yeovil
47%
Truro
44%
Eastleigh
41%
Brackley Town
40%
Tamworth
38%
Carlisle is 5.0 percentage points worse than Aldershot in terms of average possession (49% vs 54%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

CarlisleCarlisle

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L21W00D01L00D10W20W00D00D20WA·CHE26/04H·SAL03/05A·WOK09/08H·BOR16/08H·SOL19/08A·WEA23/08H·BRA25/08A·SUT30/08A·BRA03/09H·TRU06/09← League TwoNational League →
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.470.870.670.400.27
vs Stronger (19)0.630.740.750.830.430.57
vs Similar (11)0.640.001.330.000.380.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AldershotAldershot

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L10W02L01L01L20W00D21W10W10WA·BAR26/04H·YEO05/05A·ALT09/08H·BOS16/08H·EAS20/08A·SOL23/08H·MOR25/08A·GAT30/08A·TRU03/09H·BRA06/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.970.800.670.601.27
vs Stronger (12)0.670.920.670.830.671.00
vs Similar (18)0.721.000.890.560.561.44
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Carlisle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Carlisle over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

CarlisleCarlisle

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D01L20W32W11D00D30W12L10W10WA·CHE26/04H·SAL03/05A·WOK09/08H·BOR16/08H·SOL19/08A·WEA23/08H·BRA25/08A·SUT30/08A·BRA03/09H·TRU06/09← League TwoNational League →
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.830.930.800.600.87
vs Stronger (19)0.631.050.750.920.431.29
vs Similar (11)1.000.451.670.330.750.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AldershotAldershot

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L11D21W22D22D31W40W12L12L12LA·BAR26/04H·YEO05/05A·ALT09/08H·BOS16/08H·EAS20/08A·SOL23/08H·MOR25/08A·GAT30/08A·TRU03/09H·BRA06/09
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.971.330.871.071.07
vs Stronger (12)1.250.751.830.170.671.33
vs Similar (18)1.171.111.001.331.330.89
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Carlisle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Carlisle over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards80.1%-------✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards73.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ROC (10)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
BU (6)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
BT (3)
€0m
SCU (2)
€0m
TAM (4)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
TRU (2)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Carlisle and Aldershot have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ROC (3)
€1m
FG (2)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
BT (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
TRU (0)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
BT (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Carlisle and Aldershot have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
SOU (2)
€0m
BU (2)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
BT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
TRU (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
SCU (0)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
BT (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ROC (4)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
BU (3)
€0m
EAS (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
BT (3)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
TRU (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
TAM (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Carlisle and Aldershot have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
CAR wins
0
Draws
0
ALD wins

Head-to-head

Carlisle vs Aldershot · H/A from CAR
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

CarlisleCarlisle

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/09/25HCAR Vs Truro3-0
03/09/25ABrackley Town Vs CAR0-1
30/08/25ASutton Vs CAR2-1
25/08/25HCAR Vs Braintree Town5-0
23/08/25AWealdstone Vs CAR0-1
19/08/25HCAR Vs Solihull1-1
16/08/25HCAR Vs Boreham Wood3-3
09/08/25AWoking Vs CAR0-2
03/05/25HCAR Vs Salford2-2
26/04/25ACheltenham Vs CAR3-2

AldershotAldershot

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/09/25HALD Vs Brackley Town2-2
03/09/25ATruro Vs ALD2-2
30/08/25AGateshead Vs ALD3-3
25/08/25HALD Vs Morecambe4-0
23/08/25ASolihull Vs ALD1-5
20/08/25HALD Vs Eastleigh2-3
16/08/25HALD Vs Boston Utd2-3
09/08/25AAltrincham Vs ALD3-2
05/05/25HALD Vs Yeovil2-1
26/04/25ABarnet Vs ALD4-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Carlisle
Carlisle
England: National League
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWW1.12
HomeDDDWW1.08
AwayLWWLW1.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%23%33%
AVG goals2.502.852.12
Over 1.5 %68%77%58%
Over 2.5 %44%50%38%
Over 3.5 %26%35%17%
Scored1.141.350.92
Conceded1.361.501.21
BTTS48%58%38%
Clean Sheet28%19%38%
Corners10.4610.0510.90
Cards4.334.204.46
Aldershot
Aldershot
England: National League
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDDD1.18
HomeWLLWD1.44
AwayLLWDD0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%36%20%
AVG goals3.423.203.64
Over 1.5 %88%84%92%
Over 2.5 %68%68%68%
Over 3.5 %50%48%52%
Scored1.581.721.44
Conceded1.841.482.20
BTTS70%68%72%
Clean Sheet14%20%8%
Corners---
Cards4.584.334.83

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1RochdaleRochdale48110
71%
2.3
9244+48
2.8
81%
60%
29%
-
0%
3.1
48%
-
0%
2
1111.90.9
56%
2YorkYork46108
72%
2.3
11441+73
3.4
87%
72%
50%
-
0%
3.9
52%
-
0%
1
0012.50.9
62%
3CarlisleCarlisle4796
62%
2.0
8852+36
3.0
83%
60%
30%
-
0%
3.6
52%
-
0%
0
0001.91.1
49%
4Boreham WoodBoreham Wood4993
55%
1.9
9861+37
3.2
88%
69%
39%
-
0%
3.2
43%
-
0%
0
0002.01.2
58%
5ScunthorpeScunthorpe4885
50%
1.8
8165+16
3.0
85%
60%
33%
-
0%
4.1
63%
-
0%
0
0001.71.4
49%
6Forest GreenForest Green4782
49%
1.7
8252+30
2.9
83%
51%
32%
-
0%
4.2
65%
-
0%
1
0001.71.1
53%
7SouthendSouthend4781
49%
1.7
8348+35
2.8
81%
51%
19%
-
0%
3.7
54%
-
0%
1
0001.81.0
52%
8HalifaxHalifax4670
43%
1.5
6966+3
2.9
80%
63%
28%
-
0%
4.5
72%
-
0%
0
0001.51.4
48%
9HartlepoolHartlepool4668
39%
1.5
5459-5
2.5
67%
41%
24%
-
0%
3.2
46%
-
0%
1
0001.21.3
47%
10WokingWoking4663
35%
1.4
6954+15
2.7
76%
48%
30%
-
0%
4.1
57%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
50%
11TamworthTamworth4662
37%
1.3
6371-8
2.9
78%
54%
33%
-
0%
3.8
63%
-
0%
0
0001.41.5
38%
12Boston UtdBoston Utd4659
33%
1.3
6367-4
2.8
78%
54%
28%
-
0%
4.1
61%
-
0%
1
0001.41.5
-
13AltrinchamAltrincham4657
37%
1.2
5565-10
2.6
76%
57%
20%
-
0%
4.6
70%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
52%
14SolihullSolihull4656
30%
1.2
7172-1
3.1
78%
52%
33%
-
0%
3.9
65%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
48%
15WealdstoneWealdstone4656
33%
1.2
6876-8
3.1
87%
57%
35%
-
0%
3.7
52%
-
0%
0
0001.51.7
57%
16YeovilYeovil4651
33%
1.1
4868-20
2.5
70%
50%
20%
-
0%
4.1
59%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
47%
17EastleighEastleigh4650
28%
1.1
5780-23
3.0
85%
57%
35%
-
0%
4.2
61%
-
0%
1
0001.21.7
41%
18GatesheadGateshead4650
30%
1.1
5490-36
3.1
85%
65%
35%
-
0%
3.4
50%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
50%
19SuttonSutton4647
24%
1.0
5979-20
3.0
80%
61%
33%
-
0%
4.5
65%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
54%
20AldershotAldershot4646
28%
1.0
6987-18
3.4
89%
70%
41%
-
0%
4.7
70%
-
0%
0
0001.51.9
54%
21Brackley TownBrackley Town4642
22%
0.9
4075-35
2.5
74%
43%
20%
-
0%
4.1
59%
-
0%
0
0000.91.6
40%
22MorecambeMorecambe4638
20%
0.8
66103-37
3.7
89%
70%
50%
-
0%
3.8
57%
-
0%
0
0001.42.2
49%
23Braintree TownBraintree Town4636
17%
0.8
3876-38
2.5
70%
48%
26%
-
0%
4.0
54%
-
0%
0
0000.81.7
48%
24TruroTruro4634
17%
0.7
4272-30
2.5
74%
43%
24%
-
0%
3.3
46%
-
0%
0
0000.91.6
44%
England: National League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →

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