This opponent (Boreham Wood) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boreham Wood
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.43
2.19
1.31
2.00
1.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
1.50
2.50
1.50
2.50
-
-
vs Weaker (28)
2.14
1.36
2.29
1.14
2.00
1.57
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Carlisle) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.8%
Under 1.5
11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
70.7%
Under 2.5
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
49.7%
Under 3.5
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
69.8%
No
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
9.2%
2-1
8.9%
2-2
6.8%
1-2
6.4%
3-1
6.3%
2-0
5.8%
3-2
4.8%
1-0
4.7%
Carlisle goals ↓
Boreham Wood goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.4%
3.1%
3.0%
1.5%
0.6%
1
4.7%
9.2%
6.4%
3.3%
1.3%
2
5.8%
8.9%
6.8%
3.5%
1.3%
3
4.1%
6.3%
4.8%
2.5%
0.9%
4
2.2%
3.4%
2.6%
1.3%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Carlisle goals (down), columns = Boreham Wood goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
York
2.35
Rochdale
2.29
Carlisle
2.04
Boreham Wood
1.90
Scunthorpe
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Southend
1.72
Halifax
1.52
Hartlepool
1.48
Woking
1.37
Tamworth
1.35
Boston Utd
1.28
Altrincham
1.24
Solihull
1.22
Wealdstone
1.22
Yeovil
1.11
Gateshead
1.09
Eastleigh
1.09
Sutton
1.02
Aldershot
1.00
Brackley Town
0.91
Morecambe
0.83
Braintree Town
0.78
Truro
0.74
Carlisle is 0.14 points better than Boreham Wood in terms of average points per game (2.04 vs 1.90).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
York
2.48
Boreham Wood
2.00
Rochdale
1.92
Carlisle
1.87
Southend
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Scunthorpe
1.69
Solihull
1.54
Halifax
1.50
Woking
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Wealdstone
1.48
Morecambe
1.43
Boston Utd
1.37
Tamworth
1.37
Sutton
1.28
Eastleigh
1.24
Altrincham
1.20
Gateshead
1.17
Hartlepool
1.17
Yeovil
1.04
Truro
0.91
Brackley Town
0.87
Braintree Town
0.83
Carlisle is 0.13 goals worse than Boreham Wood in terms of goals scored per game (1.87 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
York
0.89
Rochdale
0.92
Southend
1.02
Forest Green
1.11
Carlisle
1.11
Woking
1.17
Boreham Wood
1.24
Hartlepool
1.28
Scunthorpe
1.35
Altrincham
1.41
Halifax
1.43
Boston Utd
1.46
Yeovil
1.48
Tamworth
1.54
Solihull
1.57
Truro
1.57
Brackley Town
1.63
Braintree Town
1.65
Wealdstone
1.65
Sutton
1.72
Eastleigh
1.74
Aldershot
1.89
Gateshead
1.96
Morecambe
2.24
Carlisle is 0.14 goals better than Boreham Wood in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 1.24).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
York
62%
Boreham Wood
58%
Wealdstone
57%
Rochdale
56%
Sutton
54%
Aldershot
54%
Forest Green
53%
Southend
52%
Altrincham
52%
Gateshead
50%
Woking
50%
Scunthorpe
49%
Morecambe
49%
Carlisle
49%
Solihull
48%
Braintree Town
48%
Halifax
48%
Hartlepool
47%
Yeovil
47%
Truro
44%
Eastleigh
41%
Brackley Town
40%
Tamworth
38%
Carlisle is 9.0 percentage points worse than Boreham Wood in terms of average possession (49% vs 58%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Carlisle or Draw✓ Hit
73.1%
Avg Implied -
51%
23%
27%
covers Carlisle + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Carlisle or Boreham Wood✗ Miss
77.5%
Avg Implied -
51%
23%
27%
covers Carlisle + Boreham Wood
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Boreham Wood✓ Hit
49.4%
Avg Implied -
51%
23%
27%
covers Draw + Boreham Wood
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Carlisle over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
88.1%
Under
11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
62.7%
Under
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
35.8%
Under
64.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
16.7%
Under
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
78.3%
Under
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
45.2%
Under
54.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
19.9%
Under
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Carlisle, so a minus line means Carlisle give that many goals of a start and Boreham Wood receive them. At -1, Carlisle must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Carlisle win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Carlisle)Actual: Boreham Wood
Carlisle -2
15.2%
Draw -2
15.4%
Boreham Wood +2
69.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Carlisle)Actual: Boreham Wood
Carlisle -1
30.6%
Draw -1
20.0%
Boreham Wood +1
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Carlisle)Actual: Carlisle
Carlisle +1
73.1%
Draw +1
14.1%
Boreham Wood -1
12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Carlisle)Actual: Carlisle
Carlisle +2
87.3%
Draw +2
8.0%
Boreham Wood -2
4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Carlisle
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.63
1.36
0.50
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.50
-
-
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (28)
1.04
0.50
1.36
0.50
0.71
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Boreham Wood) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boreham Wood
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.63
1.06
0.56
0.93
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Weaker (28)
1.00
0.61
1.07
0.50
0.93
0.71
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Carlisle) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Carlisle over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Carlisle
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.60
0.79
0.57
1.00
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (28)
0.93
0.61
0.79
0.57
1.07
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Boreham Wood) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boreham Wood
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.80
1.12
0.75
1.07
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.50
-
-
vs Weaker (28)
1.14
0.75
1.21
0.64
1.07
0.86
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Carlisle) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Carlisle over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carlisle over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
England: National League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →