Dinamo Tirana vs Aluminij Result & Analysis

Dinamo Tirana and Aluminij face each other in a tightly contested Europa Conference League tie, with the model favouring a home win at 40%. The draw probability sits at 29% while Aluminij’s chances are 31%. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly open match, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.8% probability. Dinamo’s home form shows 1.43 goals scored and 1.14 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Aluminij averages 1.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded on the road. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 86.1%, Over 19.5 fouls at 84.5%, Under 11.5 corners at 78.4% (edge 3%), Over 1.5 goals at 74.3% (edge 2%, hit), Under 3.5 goals at 73.9% (edge 2%, hit), Over 21.5 fouls at 72.2%, and Over 3.5 cards at 71.2%. Dinamo’s recent win over Skenderbeu Korce fuels optimism, while Aluminij’s recent defeat to Koper adds uncertainty.

Dinamo Tirana’s recent win over Skenderbeu Korce extended their good run, and the model’s favourite - Home win with a 40% probability - proved correct as Dinamo triumphed 3-0. The predicted 2-goal total fell short, but the model’s selections were largely right: Over 1.5, with a 74.3% probability, hit; Under 3.5, with a 73.9% probability, also hit. The match finished with a decisive home victory, confirming the model’s pick. Dinamo’s form at home, averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.14 conceded, matched the prediction, while Aluminij’s away average of 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded reflected their weaker performance. Overall, the model delivered a solid forecast.