Famalicao are favoured to win, with a 50 % chance of taking the points, 28 % for a draw and 21 % for GIL Vicente. The model expects a modest 2.4 goals, most likely a 2-goal match, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 13.4 %. Home side Famalicao, playing at home against a similar-strength opponent, averages 1.75 goals scored and only 0.25 conceded. GIL Vicente, on the road against a similar tier, scores 1.33 and concedes 1.25. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 at 99.7 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.9 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.9 %, Under 6.5 at 98.9 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.0 % with a 5 % edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.4 % with a 5 % edge, Under 5.5 at 96.5 % with a 2 % edge, and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 95.1 % with a 5 % edge. The recent form shows Famalicao after two straight defeats, while GIL Vicente comes off a win.
Results analysis
A surprising 0-0 draw saw the pre-match favourite, Famalicao, fail to secure victory, a clear upset given the model’s 51% probability for a home win. The match finished a stalemate, with both sides unable to break the deadlock. The model’s call was wrong, as the actual result was a draw. Every suggested pick hit: Under 7.5 (99.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.0%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.8%), Under 6.5 (98.8%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.9%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.9%), Under 5.5 (96.4%), and Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.3%). Both teams entered the game coming off a draw, with Famalicao’s recent form noted as “coming off a draw.”
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Famalicao winâś— Miss
50.9%
Avg Implied 45.6% · @ 2.06
Edge
+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.12
10Bet
2.10
Betano
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Dafabet
2.09
Drawâś“ Hit
28.4%
Avg Implied 29.8% · @ 3.15
Edge
-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.25
Unibet
3.25
1xBet
3.25
Bet365
3.20
Superbet
3.20
GIL Vicente winâś— Miss
20.7%
Avg Implied 24.6% · @ 3.83
Edge
-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.22
1xBet
4.04
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Dafabet
3.95
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Famalicao
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.13
1.69
0.92
0.88
1.29
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
1.88
1.00
1.67
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (14)
1.14
0.93
1.75
0.25
0.90
1.20
vs Weaker (8)
1.62
0.75
2.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (GIL Vicente) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
GIL Vicente
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.20
1.69
0.94
1.14
1.50
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
2.00
1.33
1.33
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (25)
1.56
1.04
1.77
0.85
1.33
1.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Famalicao) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
70.5%
@ 1.39+3.1%
Under 1.5
29.5%
@ 2.86-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Under
Betfair
3.10
Pinnacle
3.04
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
2.95
Betano
2.90
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.2%
@ 2.24+1.0%
Under 2.5
56.8%
@ 1.64-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.31
1xBet
2.30
Betano
2.30
SBO
2.28
Superbet
2.27
Under
1xBet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Betfair
1.65
Bet365
1.65
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.2%
@ 4.10-0.6%
Under 3.5
77.8%
@ 1.21+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.33
Pinnacle
4.21
10Bet
4.20
Betfair
4.20
Superbet
4.15
Under
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.1%
@ 1.93-1.0%
No
52.9%
@ 1.79+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.97
Unibet
1.96
William Hil
1.95
Bet365
1.95
BetVictor
1.93
No
Betfair
1.90
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Superbet
1.78
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%@ 5.69+5.5%
1-0
12.5%@ 5.92+5.0%
2-0
10.4%@ 8.79+5.4%
0-0 âś“
10.2%@ 7.45+4.3%
2-1
9.2%@ 8.29+3.9%
0-1
6.8%@ 8.86+1.8%
1-2
5.4%@ 12.10+1.7%
3-0
5.3%@ 17.40+2.7%
Famalicao goals ↓
GIL Vicente goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
6.8%
3.5%
1.0%
0.2%
1
13%
13%
5.4%
1.6%
0.4%
2
10%
9.2%
4.1%
1.2%
0.3%
3
5.3%
4.7%
2.1%
0.6%
0.1%
4
2.0%
1.8%
0.8%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Famalicao goals (down), columns = GIL Vicente goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.59
Sporting CP
2.41
Benfica
2.35
SC Braga
1.74
Famalicao
1.65
GIL Vicente
1.47
Moreirense
1.26
Arouca
1.24
Guimaraes
1.24
Estoril
1.15
Alverca
1.15
Maritimo
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.10
Rio Ave
1.06
Santa Clara
1.06
Nacional
1.00
Casa Pia
0.94
Estrela
0.88
Famalicao is 0.18 points better than GIL Vicente in terms of average points per game (1.65 vs 1.47).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.62
Benfica
2.18
FC Porto
1.94
SC Braga
1.88
Estoril
1.59
Arouca
1.38
GIL Vicente
1.38
Famalicao
1.24
Guimaraes
1.15
Estrela
1.12
Moreirense
1.09
Nacional
1.09
Maritimo
1.08
Academico Viseu
1.06
Rio Ave
1.03
Alverca
1.03
Santa Clara
0.94
Casa Pia
0.92
Famalicao is 0.15 goals worse than GIL Vicente in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.38).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.53
Sporting CP
0.71
Benfica
0.74
Famalicao
0.85
SC Braga
1.06
GIL Vicente
1.12
Santa Clara
1.21
Nacional
1.32
Moreirense
1.44
Guimaraes
1.50
Alverca
1.53
Maritimo
1.55
Academico Viseu
1.58
Casa Pia
1.58
Estrela
1.65
Estoril
1.68
Rio Ave
1.68
Arouca
1.88
Famalicao is 0.26 goals better than GIL Vicente in terms of goals conceded per game (0.85 vs 1.12).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
SC Braga
63%
Sporting CP
62%
Benfica
58%
FC Porto
55%
Estoril
53%
Guimaraes
51%
Famalicao
51%
Arouca
50%
GIL Vicente
50%
Moreirense
50%
Santa Clara
48%
Rio Ave
47%
Estrela
47%
Nacional
46%
Alverca
45%
Casa Pia
41%
Famalicao is 1.6 percentage points better than GIL Vicente in terms of average possession (51% vs 50%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Famalicao or Drawâś“ Hit
81.4%
Avg Implied 75.5% · @ 1.24
Edge
+5.9%
51%
28%
21%
covers Famalicao + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.27
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Famalicao or GIL Vicenteâś— Miss
72.4%
Avg Implied 70.6% · @ 1.33
Edge
+1.8%
51%
28%
21%
covers Famalicao + GIL Vicente
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Draw or GIL Vicenteâś“ Hit
46.2%
Avg Implied 54.0% · @ 1.73
Edge
-7.8%
51%
28%
21%
covers Draw + GIL Vicente
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.80
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.78
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.75
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Famalicao over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
79.4%
@ 1.25+5.0%
Under
20.6%
@ 3.63-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Under
Betfair
4.00
Pinnacle
3.98
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.60
Superbet
3.60
Famalicao over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
46.8%
@ 2.26+5.4%
Under
53.2%
@ 1.59-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.31
10Bet
2.30
Unibet
2.30
Marathonbet
2.27
Superbet
2.27
Under
Pinnacle
1.65
Bet365
1.62
Betfair
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
1xBet
1.61
Famalicao over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
21.1%
@ 5.06+2.7%
Under
78.9%
@ 1.14-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
Marathonbet
5.00
Unibet
5.00
Superbet
5.00
Under
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Famalicao over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.6%
@ 11.55-0.6%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.03+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
12.00
Betfair
11.00
Marathonbet
10.50
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
GIL Vicente over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
56.5%
@ 1.52-4.8%
Under
43.5%
@ 2.41+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.57
BetVictor
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
Under
Betfair
2.63
Pinnacle
2.49
10Bet
2.45
Betano
2.40
Superbet
2.40
GIL Vicente over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
20.3%
@ 3.56-5.9%
Under
79.7%
@ 1.27+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.93
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.72
BetVictor
3.60
Superbet
3.55
Under
Betfair
1.29
1xBet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.27
GIL Vicente over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
5.2%
@ 9.69-4.4%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.03+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Marathonbet
10.50
1xBet
9.90
Superbet
9.50
Betfair
9.00
Under
Betfair
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
GIL Vicente over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.0%
@ 23.50-3.1%
Under
99.0%
@ 1.01+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
29.00
Bet365
29.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Famalicao, so a minus line means Famalicao give that many goals of a start and GIL Vicente receive them. At -1, Famalicao must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Famalicao win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Famalicao)Actual: GIL Vicente
Famalicao -2
12.3%
@ 9.20+2.5%
Draw -2
16.9%
@ 5.88+1.6%
GIL Vicente +2
70.8%
@ 1.20-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
10.00
10Bet
9.00
Unibet
9.00
Marathonbet
8.10
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.90
10Bet
5.75
Superbet
5.60
Away
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Handicap -1 (Famalicao)Actual: GIL Vicente
Famalicao -1
29.2%
@ 3.99+6.7%
Draw -1
24.6%
@ 3.55-0.7%
GIL Vicente +1
46.2%
@ 1.72-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Unibet
3.90
Superbet
3.80
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.56
Superbet
3.55
10Bet
3.55
Unibet
3.50
Away
Marathonbet
1.74
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.73
10Bet
1.70
Handicap +1 (Famalicao)Actual: Famalicao
Famalicao +1
81.4%
@ 1.24+9.1%
Draw +1
12.4%
@ 5.09-5.2%
GIL Vicente -1
6.2%
@ 8.93-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
Superbet
5.10
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Away
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
8.70
10Bet
8.50
Superbet
7.90
Handicap +2 (Famalicao)Actual: Famalicao
Famalicao +2
93.8%
@ 1.05+5.3%
Draw +2
4.7%
@ 11.50-3.3%
GIL Vicente -2
1.5%
@ 27.00-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
13.00
10Bet
8.50
Away
Betfair
34.00
Bet365
26.00
10Bet
21.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Famalicao
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.53
0.62
0.62
0.41
0.47
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.12
0.33
1.33
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.29
0.50
0.25
0.40
0.30
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
0.38
0.83
0.50
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (GIL Vicente) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
GIL Vicente
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.53
0.75
0.44
0.71
0.64
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
1.20
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (25)
0.88
0.40
0.92
0.31
0.83
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Famalicao) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
66.6%
@ 1.47+3.1%
Under 0.5
33.4%
@ 2.55-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.48
Under
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.68
10Bet
2.65
William Hil
2.62
Bet365
2.62
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
32.3%
@ 3.18+3.0%
Under 1.5
67.7%
@ 1.32-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.37
Betano
3.35
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
1xBet
3.22
Under
10Bet
1.36
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
9.6%
@ 8.44-1.5%
Under 2.5
90.4%
@ 1.05+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
8.50
William Hil
8.50
Marathonbet
8.30
Under
Betano
1.07
William Hil
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Famalicao over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
49.9%
@ 2.00+3.3%
Under
50.1%
@ 1.74-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.04
1xBet
2.01
Marathonbet
2.01
Unibet
2.00
Under
10Bet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.79
Superbet
1.74
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.70
Famalicao over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.8%
@ 6.02-2.6%
Under
87.2%
@ 1.09+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.40
Marathonbet
6.40
Superbet
5.90
Betano
5.90
10Bet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Famalicao over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 16.00-3.9%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.02+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
GIL Vicente over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
37.7%
@ 2.64+2.5%
Under
62.3%
@ 1.43-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.80
1xBet
2.68
Marathonbet
2.68
Betano
2.67
Superbet
2.65
Under
10Bet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.45
Betano
1.44
Unibet
1.44
Superbet
1.43
GIL Vicente over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.1%
@ 10.11-1.2%
Under
91.9%
@ 1.04+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.00
1xBet
11.00
Superbet
9.70
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
GIL Vicente over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 40.00-98.8%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
40.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Famalicao
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.60
1.08
0.31
0.47
0.82
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.75
0.67
0.33
0.60
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.64
1.25
0.00
0.50
0.90
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
0.38
1.17
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (GIL Vicente) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
GIL Vicente
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.67
0.94
0.50
0.43
0.86
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.80
1.33
0.33
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.64
0.85
0.54
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Famalicao) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
77.1%
@ 1.30+5.3%
Under 0.5
22.9%
@ 3.31-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.28
Under
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.35
Betano
3.35
1xBet
3.34
Marathonbet
3.34
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
36.8%
@ 2.39-2.1%
Under 1.5
63.2%
@ 1.52+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.45
William Hil
2.45
10Bet
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Unibet
2.38
Under
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.54
1xBet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.2%
@ 5.46-1.8%
Under 2.5
84.8%
@ 1.12+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
6.00
Superbet
5.65
10Bet
5.50
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
William Hil
1.11
10Bet
1.11
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Famalicao over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
55.8%
@ 1.70+1.3%
Under
44.2%
@ 2.04-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.72
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.68
Under
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.03
Superbet
2.00
Famalicao over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
18.9%
@ 4.44-1.9%
Under
81.1%
@ 1.17+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.75
Superbet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
1xBet
4.30
Betano
4.20
Under
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Famalicao over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.7%
@ 11.75-3.3%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.02+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.01
GIL Vicente over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
41.8%
@ 2.17-0.9%
Under
58.2%
@ 1.62+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.18
Superbet
2.17
Betano
2.12
Under
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.61
1xBet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.59
GIL Vicente over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.1%
@ 7.15-0.8%
Under
87.9%
@ 1.06+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.70
1xBet
7.40
Superbet
7.10
Betano
6.40
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
GIL Vicente over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 18.75-3.0%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
25.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.1%
âś“ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 6.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.0%
âś“ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.9%
âś“ Hit
Under 5.5
96.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
1xBet
1.01
+2.2%
âś“ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.3%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.3%
âś“ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
94.8%
1.03
Betfair
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
+4.4%
âś“ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Home +2 handicap
93.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
-
+5.3%
âś“ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.4%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
-
+0.6%
âś“ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.9%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-
+1.2%
âś“ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.4%
1.05
Betano
1.07
William Hil
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
+1.5%
âś“ Hit
Under 4.5
90.3%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
+1.6%
âś“ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.9%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
-
+0.8%
âś“ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.2%
1.09
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
+2.6%
âś“ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.8%
1.12
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.13
William Hil
1.11
10Bet
1.11
+1.8%
âś“ Hit
Home or Draw
81.4%
1.24
1xBet
1.27
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.25
+5.9%
âś“ Hit
Home +1 handicap
81.4%
1.24
Unibet
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
+9.1%
âś“ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.1%
1.17
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
+1.9%
âś“ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
79.7%
1.27
Betfair
1.29
1xBet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.27
+5.9%
âś“ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
79.4%
1.25
Betano
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+5.0%
âś— Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
78.9%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
-2.7%
âś“ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 3.5
77.8%
1.21
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
+0.6%
âś“ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.1%
1.30
William Hil
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.28
+5.3%
âś— Miss
Home or Away
72.4%
1.33
1xBet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.35
+1.8%
âś— Miss
Under 11.5 corners
72.3%
1.32
Superbet
1.38
Unibet
1.36
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
+2.9%
âś“ Hit
Away +2 handicap
70.8%
1.20
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
-4.1%
âś“ Hit
Over 1.5
70.5%
1.39
Betano
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
+3.1%
âś— Miss
Over 3.5 cards
70.1%
1.36
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
-
+1.3%
âś“ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
ALV (30)
€39m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
CP (29)
€27m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
EST (22)
€20m
NAC (31)
€20m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
Famalicao's squad is €28m more valuable than GIL Vicente's (€57m vs €29m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ALV (8)
€15m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
CP (11)
€9m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
AV (11)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
EST (6)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
Famalicao's attack is €6m more valuable than GIL Vicente's (€16m vs €11m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
ALV (8)
€6m
CP (7)
€6m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
EST (5)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
Famalicao's midfield is €12m more valuable than GIL Vicente's (€20m vs €8m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
ALV (14)
€18m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
CP (11)
€12m
EST (11)
€11m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
Famalicao's defence is €11m more valuable than GIL Vicente's (€22m vs €11m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Porto
Sporting CP
Arouca
Santa Clara
Benfica
Maritimo
Estrela
SC Braga
Nacional
Moreirense
Guimaraes
Rio Ave
Academico Viseu
Alverca
Estoril
Casa Pia