FC Porto is the clear favourite to win this match, with a 73% chance of securing a home win. The model's prediction is backed by FC Porto's strong home form, where they have averaged 2.07 goals scored and just 0.47 conceded against weaker opponents. Arouca, on the other hand, have struggled on the road, scoring an average of 0.5 goals and conceding 2.0 against stronger opponents.
The most likely match result is a home win, with a predicted scoreline of 2-0, carrying a 13.9% probability. The expected total goals is 2.9, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The model suggests a 94% probability of a home or draw result, an 83.3% probability of a home or away result, and an 83.3% probability of a home win. The model also selects Over 1.5 goals, Over 21.5 fouls, Over 3.5 cards, and Home win as its selections, with probabilities of 79.2%, 77.8%, 75.6%, and 72.7% respectively. The probabilities for a home win, a draw, and an away win are 73%, 19%, and 9% respectively.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved accurate as FC Porto secured a 2-0 victory, extending their four-game winning streak at home. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 73 % probability, and the outcome matched the forecast. The model’s selections were largely correct: Away under 3.5 goals hit at 99.8 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.4 %, Under 7.5 at 99.1 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.9 %, Home +2 handicap at 98.6 %, Away under 2.5 goals at 98.4 %, Under 6.5 at 97.3 %, and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 95.2 %. All picks settled as predicted, underscoring the model’s strong performance.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
FC Porto winâś“ Hit
72.9%
Avg Implied 75.7% · @ 1.24
Edge
-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.27
Superbet
1.27
Dafabet
1.27
888Sport
1.25
Drawâś— Miss
18.6%
Avg Implied 16.0% · @ 5.88
Edge
+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
6.71
Pinnacle
6.52
Unibet
6.25
Marathonbet
6.05
Dafabet
6.00
Arouca winâś— Miss
8.6%
Avg Implied 8.3% · @ 11.31
Edge
+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
15.50
Unibet
13.00
Betano
12.00
Betfair
12.00
1xBet
11.90
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
FC Porto
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
0.67
1.75
0.38
1.36
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.80
0.67
0.33
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (25)
1.72
0.64
2.00
0.38
1.42
0.92
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Arouca) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arouca
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.60
1.85
1.46
1.24
1.71
vs Stronger (8)
0.88
2.38
1.25
2.50
0.50
2.25
vs Similar (22)
1.73
1.32
2.11
1.00
1.46
1.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.9%
@ 1.18+1.0%
Under 1.5
20.1%
@ 4.43-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Under
Pinnacle
4.58
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Superbet
4.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.2%
@ 1.62-1.9%
Under 2.5
43.8%
@ 2.25+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.66
Superbet
1.65
Betano
1.65
SBO
1.64
Unibet
1.63
Under
1xBet
2.34
Pinnacle
2.34
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.30
10Bet
2.30
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.9%
@ 2.54-2.9%
Under 3.5
66.1%
@ 1.47+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.68
Betfair
2.63
Superbet
2.62
Unibet
2.60
Betano
2.60
Under
10Bet
1.53
Betano
1.52
Superbet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
44.5%
@ 2.15+1.2%
No
55.5%
@ 1.64-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
2.35
Betfair
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Superbet
2.17
BetVictor
2.10
No
William Hil
1.70
888Sport
1.70
1xBet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.67
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0 âś“
13.7%@ 5.63+5.7%
1-0
11.2%@ 6.49+4.3%
3-0
10.3%@ 7.09+4.0%
2-1
9.1%@ 8.40+3.8%
1-1
8.9%@ 10.31+4.5%
3-1
6.9%@ 10.39+2.6%
0-0
6.1%@ 13.99+2.9%
4-0
5.9%@ 11.25+1.9%
FC Porto goals ↓
Arouca goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
2.7%
1.2%
0.3%
0.0%
1
11%
8.9%
2.7%
0.6%
0.1%
2
14%
9.1%
3.1%
0.7%
0.1%
3
10%
6.9%
2.3%
0.5%
0.1%
4
5.9%
3.9%
1.3%
0.3%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = FC Porto goals (down), columns = Arouca goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.59
Sporting CP
2.41
Benfica
2.35
SC Braga
1.74
Famalicao
1.65
GIL Vicente
1.47
Moreirense
1.26
Arouca
1.24
Guimaraes
1.24
Estoril
1.15
Alverca
1.15
Maritimo
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.10
Rio Ave
1.06
Santa Clara
1.06
Nacional
1.00
Casa Pia
0.94
Estrela
0.88
FC Porto is 1.35 points better than Arouca in terms of average points per game (2.59 vs 1.24).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.62
Benfica
2.18
FC Porto
1.94
SC Braga
1.88
Estoril
1.59
Arouca
1.38
GIL Vicente
1.38
Famalicao
1.24
Guimaraes
1.15
Estrela
1.12
Moreirense
1.09
Nacional
1.09
Maritimo
1.08
Academico Viseu
1.06
Rio Ave
1.03
Alverca
1.03
Santa Clara
0.94
Casa Pia
0.92
FC Porto is 0.56 goals better than Arouca in terms of goals scored per game (1.94 vs 1.38).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.53
Sporting CP
0.71
Benfica
0.74
Famalicao
0.85
SC Braga
1.06
GIL Vicente
1.12
Santa Clara
1.21
Nacional
1.32
Moreirense
1.44
Guimaraes
1.50
Alverca
1.53
Maritimo
1.55
Academico Viseu
1.58
Casa Pia
1.58
Estrela
1.65
Estoril
1.68
Rio Ave
1.68
Arouca
1.88
FC Porto is 1.35 goals better than Arouca in terms of goals conceded per game (0.53 vs 1.88).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
SC Braga
63%
Sporting CP
62%
Benfica
58%
FC Porto
55%
Estoril
53%
Guimaraes
51%
Famalicao
51%
Arouca
50%
GIL Vicente
50%
Moreirense
50%
Santa Clara
48%
Rio Ave
47%
Estrela
47%
Nacional
46%
Alverca
45%
Casa Pia
41%
FC Porto is 4.9 percentage points better than Arouca in terms of average possession (55% vs 50%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
FC Porto or Drawâś“ Hit
94.0%
Avg Implied 90.6% · @ 1.04
Edge
+3.4%
73%
19%
9%
covers FC Porto + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
William Hil
1.06
888Sport
1.06
BetVictor
1.06
FC Porto or Aroucaâś“ Hit
83.3%
Avg Implied 84.8% · @ 1.11
Edge
-1.5%
73%
19%
9%
covers FC Porto + Arouca
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.13
888Sport
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Draw or Aroucaâś— Miss
22.7%
Avg Implied 24.6% · @ 3.84
Edge
-1.9%
73%
19%
9%
covers Draw + Arouca
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
4.33
1xBet
4.18
Marathonbet
3.88
Unibet
3.85
Betano
3.80
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
FC Porto over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
90.3%
@ 1.06+1.3%
Under
9.7%
@ 8.48-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Under
888Sport
9.00
Betfair
9.00
1xBet
9.00
Bet365
9.00
Superbet
7.80
FC Porto over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
67.6%
@ 1.36-0.9%
Under
32.4%
@ 2.95+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.38
BetVictor
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.21
10Bet
3.20
Unibet
2.95
1xBet
2.95
Marathonbet
2.95
FC Porto over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
41.1%
@ 2.15-2.3%
Under
58.9%
@ 1.65+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.26
Betfair
2.20
Bet365
2.20
1xBet
2.19
Superbet
2.17
Under
10Bet
1.75
Betfair
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.66
Unibet
1.65
FC Porto over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
20.6%
@ 3.96-2.9%
Under
79.4%
@ 1.22+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.48
BetVictor
4.10
1xBet
4.05
Bet365
4.00
888Sport
4.00
Under
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Arouca over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
40.9%
@ 1.99-5.9%
Under
59.1%
@ 1.75+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.18
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.02
Superbet
1.97
Under
Pinnacle
1.82
Bet365
1.80
888Sport
1.80
Betano
1.80
BetVictor
1.78
Arouca over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
9.8%
@ 6.12-5.5%
Under
90.2%
@ 1.11+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.20
1xBet
6.15
Under
888Sport
1.13
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Arouca over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 19.31-3.3%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
888Sport
23.00
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Arouca over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.2%
@ 70.00-99.8%
Under
99.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
70.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to FC Porto, so a minus line means FC Porto give that many goals of a start and Arouca receive them. At -1, FC Porto must win by two or more to land; a one-goal FC Porto win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (FC Porto)Actual: Draw
FC Porto -2
31.5%
@ 2.82-0.3%
Draw -2
23.1%
@ 3.75-0.9%
Arouca +2
45.4%
@ 2.03+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.88
Superbet
2.85
Unibet
2.65
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.84
Superbet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.65
Away
10Bet
2.20
Unibet
2.10
Betfair
2.00
Superbet
1.97
Bet365
1.95
Handicap -1 (FC Porto)Actual: FC Porto
FC Porto -1
54.6%
@ 1.69+1.5%
Draw -1
22.8%
@ 3.73-1.2%
Arouca +1
22.7%
@ 3.90-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.72
Betfair
1.67
Unibet
1.62
Draw
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Unibet
3.60
Away
10Bet
4.33
Unibet
4.10
Marathonbet
3.88
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Handicap +1 (FC Porto)Actual: FC Porto
FC Porto +1
94.0%
@ 1.04+4.2%
Draw +1
4.6%
@ 13.00-2.6%
Arouca -1
1.4%
@ 31.50-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
13.00
Away
Betfair
34.00
Bet365
29.00
Handicap +2 (FC Porto)Actual: FC Porto
FC Porto +2
98.6%
Draw +2
1.2%
Arouca -2
0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
FC Porto
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.27
0.94
0.12
0.64
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.00
0.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (25)
0.84
0.32
1.08
0.15
0.58
0.50
Clean sheet %
77% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Arouca) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arouca
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.87
0.85
0.92
0.47
0.82
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.25
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.77
0.73
1.00
0.67
0.62
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
74.9%
@ 1.27+1.7%
Under 0.5
25.1%
@ 3.48-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Betfair
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.60
Superbet
3.55
Marathonbet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
37.3%
@ 2.35-2.3%
Under 1.5
62.7%
@ 1.55+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.47
Betano
2.47
Betfair
2.40
Marathonbet
2.38
Bet365
2.38
Under
10Bet
1.60
Superbet
1.59
Betano
1.55
William Hil
1.55
Pinnacle
1.54
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.2%
@ 5.34-2.3%
Under 2.5
84.8%
@ 1.13+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.40
Marathonbet
5.40
Under
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
William Hil
1.12
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
FC Porto over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
62.8%
@ 1.41-3.1%
Under
37.2%
@ 2.73+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.44
Superbet
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Under
10Bet
2.90
Pinnacle
2.81
1xBet
2.75
Unibet
2.70
Superbet
2.67
FC Porto over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
26.3%
@ 3.04-4.3%
Under
73.7%
@ 1.33+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.20
Betano
3.15
Marathonbet
3.08
Superbet
2.95
10Bet
2.80
Under
10Bet
1.38
Superbet
1.35
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.30
FC Porto over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.4%
@ 7.38-6.2%
Under
93.6%
@ 1.06+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.00
Betano
7.30
Superbet
7.20
10Bet
7.00
Under
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Arouca over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
28.9%
@ 3.67+3.6%
Under
71.1%
@ 1.24-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.11
Unibet
3.85
10Bet
3.75
Betano
3.50
1xBet
3.50
Under
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Arouca over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.8%
@ 13.38-2.3%
Under
95.2%
@ 1.02+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Arouca over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.6%
@ 75.00-99.4%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
75.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
FC Porto
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.40
0.81
0.25
0.71
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.20
0.80
0.33
0.33
0.00
1.50
vs Weaker (25)
0.88
0.32
0.92
0.23
0.83
0.42
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Arouca) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arouca
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.73
1.00
0.54
0.76
0.88
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.12
0.75
1.00
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (22)
0.95
0.59
1.11
0.33
0.85
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Porto) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
84.6%
@ 1.17+5.4%
Under 0.5
15.4%
@ 4.49-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
Under
Betano
4.65
Superbet
4.65
Marathonbet
4.60
1xBet
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
51.1%
@ 1.87+1.3%
Under 1.5
48.9%
@ 1.86-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.91
888Sport
1.91
Superbet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.87
Unibet
1.87
Under
Betano
1.95
Superbet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
William Hil
1.83
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
21.1%
@ 3.69-4.1%
Under 2.5
78.9%
@ 1.24+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.90
888Sport
3.90
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.70
1xBet
3.58
Under
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
FC Porto over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
74.1%
@ 1.29+2.3%
Under
25.9%
@ 3.28-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.29
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Under
Betano
3.40
Superbet
3.25
1xBet
3.20
FC Porto over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
34.2%
@ 2.35-5.2%
Under
65.8%
@ 1.53+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.37
1xBet
2.37
Marathonbet
2.35
Betano
2.30
Under
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.52
1xBet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.51
FC Porto over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.3%
@ 5.23-4.4%
Under
86.7%
@ 1.13+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.50
Superbet
5.35
Betano
4.85
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Arouca over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
36.4%
@ 2.84+3.8%
Under
63.6%
@ 1.38-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.93
Superbet
2.87
Betano
2.82
1xBet
2.75
Under
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Superbet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.34
Arouca over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.1%
@ 10.50-2.9%
Under
93.9%
@ 1.03+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
Arouca over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.1%
@ 50.00-98.9%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
50.00
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 7.5
99.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.3%
âś“ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Home +2 handicap
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+3.3%
âś“ Hit
Under 6.5
97.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+2.9%
âś“ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.3%
âś“ Hit
Home or Draw
94.0%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
William Hil
1.06
888Sport
1.06
BetVictor
1.06
+3.4%
âś“ Hit
Home +1 handicap
94.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
+4.2%
âś“ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
93.9%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+2.9%
âś“ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.6%
1.06
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
-
+6.2%
âś“ Hit
Under 5.5
93.0%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.04
+3.7%
âś“ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
90.3%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
888Sport
1.06
+1.3%
âś“ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
90.2%
1.11
888Sport
1.13
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
+5.5%
âś“ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
86.7%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
-
-
+4.4%
âś“ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.8%
1.13
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
William Hil
1.12
+2.3%
âś“ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.6%
1.17
888Sport
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Betano
1.18
+5.4%
âś“ Hit
Under 4.5
83.9%
1.17
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Pinnacle
1.18
+4.3%
âś“ Hit
Home or Away
83.3%
1.11
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.13
888Sport
1.13
Superbet
1.13
-1.5%
âś“ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
80.5%
1.34
Superbet
1.36
1xBet
1.34
Unibet
1.34
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
+12.2%
âś— Miss
Over 1.5
79.9%
1.18
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
+1.0%
âś“ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
79.4%
1.22
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Betfair
1.22
888Sport
1.22
+2.9%
âś“ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.9%
1.24
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
+4.1%
âś“ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
76.6%
1.33
Superbet
1.33
-
-
-
-
+8.5%
âś— Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.9%
1.27
Betano
1.33
William Hil
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Betfair
1.25
+1.7%
âś— Miss
Home over 0.5 2H goals
74.1%
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.29
-
-
+2.3%
âś“ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
73.7%
1.33
10Bet
1.38
Superbet
1.35
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.30
+4.3%
âś“ Hit
Home win
72.9%
1.24
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.27
Superbet
1.27
Dafabet
1.27
888Sport
1.25
-2.8%
âś“ Hit
Away under 0.5 HT goals
71.1%
1.24
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
-3.6%
âś“ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
70.9%
1.57
Pinnacle
1.62
1xBet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.58
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.56
+12.1%
âś— Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
ALV (30)
€39m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
CP (29)
€27m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
EST (22)
€20m
NAC (31)
€20m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
FC Porto's squad is €440m more valuable than Arouca's (€467m vs €28m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ALV (8)
€15m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
CP (11)
€9m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
AV (11)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
EST (6)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
FC Porto's attack is €203m more valuable than Arouca's (€214m vs €11m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
ALV (8)
€6m
CP (7)
€6m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
EST (5)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
FC Porto's midfield is €97m more valuable than Arouca's (€105m vs €8m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
ALV (14)
€18m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
CP (11)
€12m
EST (11)
€11m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
FC Porto's defence is €139m more valuable than Arouca's (€148m vs €8m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Sporting CP
Santa Clara
Benfica
GIL Vicente
Maritimo
Estrela
SC Braga
Nacional
Moreirense
Guimaraes
Rio Ave
Famalicao
Academico Viseu
Alverca
Estoril
Casa Pia