Guingamp are the favoured side, with a 53% chance of victory, a 26% chance of a draw and a 21% chance of an away win. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a modestly high scoring game, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.5% probability. Guingamp, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, average 2.0 goals scored and 1.11 conceded, while Annecy, on the road, average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 94.3%, Over 21.5 fouls at 87.6%, Under 5.5 cards at 79.4%, Under 11.5 corners at 78.7%, Over 23.5 fouls at 77.3%, Over 1.5 at 76.7%, Over 2.5 cards at 75.3% and Under 3.5 at 70.9%. The match is expected to see a high number of fouls and a moderate number of corners, with a low likelihood of many cards.
Results analysis
Guingamp finished 1-4 against Annecy (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 53% home win, 26% draw and 21% away win. Picks that landed: Over 19.5 fouls (94%), Over 21.5 fouls (88%), Under 11.5 corners (79%), Over 23.5 fouls (77%), Over 1.5 (77%), Over 2.5 cards (75%). Missed: Under 5.5 cards (79%), Under 3.5 (71%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Guingamp winâś— Miss
53.1%
Avg Implied 59.4% · @ 1.57
Edge
-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
26.1%
Avg Implied 24.9% · @ 3.74
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Annecy winâś“ Hit
20.8%
Avg Implied 15.6% · @ 5.97
Edge
+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Guingamp
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.93
1.71
1.07
1.19
0.81
vs Stronger (5)
1.60
1.40
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.67
vs Similar (21)
1.43
0.86
2.00
1.11
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.75
1.33
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Annecy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annecy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.30
1.14
1.14
1.06
1.44
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
1.43
1.33
1.00
0.25
1.75
vs Similar (21)
1.14
1.24
1.09
1.18
1.20
1.30
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.50
-
-
2.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Guingamp) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.7%
Under 1.5
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.2%
@ 2.15+7.5%
Under 2.5
48.8%
@ 1.67-7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
29.1%
Under 3.5
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.1%
No
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
9.7%
0-0
7.7%
1-2
5.7%
3-1
5.6%
3-0
5.6%
Guingamp goals ↓
Annecy goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.7%
5.5%
3.3%
1.1%
0.3%
1
10%
12%
5.7%
1.9%
0.5%
2
9.7%
9.7%
4.9%
1.6%
0.4%
3
5.6%
5.6%
2.8%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.4%
2.4%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Guingamp goals (down), columns = Annecy goals (across).
đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Auxerre
1.93
Angers
1.85
Saint Etienne
1.73
Caen
1.55
Paris FC
1.51
Rodez
1.48
Amiens
1.43
Laval
1.40
Grenoble
1.38
Guingamp
1.38
Bastia
1.38
PAU
1.30
Bordeaux
1.30
Ajaccio
1.25
Annecy
1.25
Dunkerque
1.23
Estac Troyes
1.10
Concarneau
1.05
Quevilly
1.00
Rouen
1.00
Valenciennes
0.78
Guingamp is 0.12 points better than Annecy in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Auxerre
1.95
Rodez
1.62
PAU
1.55
Angers
1.50
Caen
1.40
Quevilly
1.34
Rouen
1.34
Bordeaux
1.30
Saint Etienne
1.29
Paris FC
1.29
Annecy
1.27
Guingamp
1.18
Grenoble
1.15
Estac Troyes
1.15
Bastia
1.12
Concarneau
1.05
Laval
1.05
Amiens
1.00
Dunkerque
0.95
Ajaccio
0.93
Valenciennes
0.70
Guingamp is 0.10 goals worse than Annecy in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 1.27).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Saint Etienne
0.83
Amiens
0.97
Auxerre
1.05
Guingamp
1.05
Angers
1.10
Paris FC
1.12
Grenoble
1.15
Ajaccio
1.18
Bastia
1.20
Caen
1.23
Laval
1.23
Annecy
1.27
Estac Troyes
1.32
Dunkerque
1.35
Bordeaux
1.38
Valenciennes
1.40
Quevilly
1.45
Rouen
1.45
Rodez
1.45
Concarneau
1.48
PAU
1.52
Guingamp is 0.22 goals better than Annecy in terms of goals conceded per game (1.05 vs 1.27).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Bordeaux
60%
Auxerre
57%
Paris FC
56%
Concarneau
53%
Saint Etienne
53%
Angers
53%
Dunkerque
51%
Caen
51%
Estac Troyes
50%
Grenoble
50%
Ajaccio
49%
PAU
49%
Valenciennes
49%
Bastia
47%
Guingamp
47%
Quevilly
47%
Amiens
46%
Rodez
46%
Laval
44%
Annecy
43%
Guingamp is 3.5 percentage points better than Annecy in terms of average possession (47% vs 43%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Guingamp
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.47
0.93
0.57
0.44
0.38
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.60
0.00
0.00
1.33
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.48
1.22
0.78
0.25
0.25
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.25
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Annecy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annecy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.30
0.57
0.21
0.56
0.38
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
0.29
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.29
0.55
0.27
0.70
0.30
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Guingamp) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Guingamp over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guingamp over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guingamp over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annecy over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annecy over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annecy over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Guingamp
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.47
0.79
0.50
0.75
0.44
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.80
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.38
0.78
0.33
0.75
0.42
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.50
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Annecy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Annecy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.00
0.57
0.93
0.50
1.06
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.14
0.67
1.00
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (21)
0.52
0.95
0.55
0.91
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Guingamp) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Guingamp over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guingamp over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Guingamp over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annecy over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annecy over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annecy over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Under 11.5 corners
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 1.5
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 3.5
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PF (37)
€176m
SE (30)
€93m
AUX (29)
€84m
ANG (23)
€73m
ET (23)
€36m
ROD (23)
€15m
PAU (20)
€14m
GRE (27)
€12m
GUI (20)
€11m
DUN (21)
€11m
ANN (21)
€10m
LAV (24)
€9m
BAS (19)
€7m
AMI (14)
€4m
CAE (18)
€4m
VAL (21)
€4m
CON (18)
€3m
ROU (14)
€3m
QUE (10)
€2m
Guingamp and Annecy have a similar squad value (both €11m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PF (13)
€59m
SE (10)
€54m
ANG (9)
€30m
AUX (11)
€23m
ET (7)
€7m
PAU (6)
€6m
GRE (12)
€5m
DUN (7)
€4m
BAS (9)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
GUI (4)
€3m
ANN (7)
€3m
LAV (7)
€2m
CAE (8)
€2m
ROU (5)
€2m
VAL (8)
€1m
CON (7)
€1m
AMI (4)
€0m
QUE (2)
€0m
Guingamp and Annecy have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PF (7)
€54m
AUX (5)
€28m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
SE (7)
€11m
GUI (8)
€4m
ROD (6)
€4m
ANN (6)
€3m
LAV (7)
€3m
GRE (5)
€3m
PAU (4)
€2m
DUN (5)
€1m
BAS (3)
€1m
CON (5)
€1m
VAL (3)
€1m
CAE (4)
€1m
AMI (2)
€0m
QUE (2)
€0m
ROU (3)
€0m
Guingamp's midfield is €1m more valuable than Annecy's (€4m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PF (17)
€62m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
SE (13)
€28m
ET (10)
€17m
ROD (10)
€7m
PAU (10)
€6m
DUN (9)
€5m
LAV (10)
€4m
ANN (8)
€4m
GRE (10)
€4m
AMI (8)
€4m
GUI (8)
€3m
BAS (7)
€2m
VAL (10)
€2m
CAE (6)
€2m
QUE (6)
€1m
ROU (6)
€1m
CON (6)
€1m
Guingamp's defence is €1m less valuable than Annecy's (€3m vs €4m).
France: Ligue 2 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Auxerre
Angers
Saint Etienne
Rodez
Caen
Paris FC
Amiens
Laval
Grenoble
Bastia
PAU
Bordeaux
Ajaccio
Dunkerque
Estac Troyes
Concarneau
Quevilly
Rouen
Valenciennes