Hartlepool vs Sutton Result & Analysis

Hartlepool are tipped to win, with the model assigning a 42% chance to a home victory, 28% to a draw and 30% to an away win. The match is expected to see 2.7 goals on average, with the most likely total being two goals at 26% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, carrying a 13.3% chance. Hartlepool, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, average 1.42 goals scored and 1.08 conceded, while Sutton, on the road, average 1.17 scored and 1.75 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 5.5 cards at 84.5%, Over 1.5 goals at 76.4%, Under 3.5 goals at 71.4% and Under 4.5 cards at 70.7%. Hartlepool’s recent form shows three straight losses before two wins, while Sutton have returned from a defeat to win four of five. The model’s selection favours a Hartlepool win, but the data also highlight a tight contest with both teams likely to score.

Hartlepool’s run of three straight defeats ended in a shock 0-2 loss to Sutton, extending Sutton’s four-game winning streak. The pre-match favourite was a Home win, with a 42% probability, but the model’s call was wrong. The final score was 0-2, an Away win. The model’s selections performed well: Under 5.5 cards hit at 84.5%, Over 1.5 hit at 76.4%, Under 3.5 hit at 71.4%, and Under 4.5 cards hit at 70.7%. The most likely score was 1-1, but the match settled at 0-2, confirming the upset.