HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka Result & Analysis

Defensive solidity will set the tone for this encounter, with Gorica’s home form showing a high average of 1.67 goals conceded per match, while Rijeka’s away outings average just 1.12. The model favours an away win, with a 39% chance, followed by a 32% draw and a 29% home win. The expected total is 2.1 goals, centring on a 2-goal match at 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.7% probability.

Gorica’s attack is modest, scoring 0.67 goals per game against stronger opposition, whereas Rijeka’s 1.38 goals per game against weaker opponents suggests a more potent offense. The suggested selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 92.2%, Over 2.5 cards at 86.2%, Over 21.5 fouls at 84.0%, Under 11.5 corners at 83.9%, Under 10.5 corners at 75.1%, Over 23.5 fouls at 72.1%, Under 3.5 at 83.4% (miss), and Over 3.5 cards at 71.3% (miss). All probabilities are expressed as percentages.

The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite, the model’s pick of an away win at 39%, failed to materialise. HNK Gorica, who had just drawn 0-0 with Rijeka, turned the tables to win 4-0, extending their recent string of losses into a victory. The model’s call was therefore wrong. The model’s other selections all proved accurate: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 92.2%, Over 2.5 cards at 86.2%, Over 21.5 fouls at 84.0%, Under 11.5 corners at 83.9%, Under 10.5 corners at 75.1%, and Over 23.5 fouls at 72.1%. The only misses were Under 3.5 at 83.4% and Over 3.5 cards at 71.3%. The final score of 4-0 confirmed the home side’s dominance, leaving the model’s predictions largely off target.