HNK Rijeka vs HNK Gorica Result & Analysis

The model favours a home win for HNK Rijeka, with a 52% chance, a draw at 28% and an away win at 20%. The expected total goals hover at 2.4, so a 2-goal match is most likely, with a 27% probability of exactly two goals. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.2% chance, though the final result will be a 1-0 win for the hosts.

Rijeka, playing at home against a weaker opponent, averages three goals scored and only 0.7 conceded. Gorica, on the road to a stronger side, nets just 0.29 and concedes 1.57. The recent form shows both teams ending their last matches in draws, with Rijeka having a 0-0 stalemate against Gorica.

The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 83.8%, Under 3.5 at 77.7%, Over 2.5 cards at 77.7%, Under 5.5 cards at 76.9%, Under 11.5 corners at 74.2%, Over 21.5 fouls at 71.1%, and Over 1.5 at 70.6%. Each pick is presented with its exact probability.

The model’s prediction proved accurate as HNK Rijeka secured a 1-0 home win, extending their recent run of results. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 52% probability and was correct. The most likely scoreline, 1-1, was not achieved, but the actual 1-0 result still matched the favoured outcome. The model’s selections performed well: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 83.8%, Under 3.5 hit at 77.7%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 77.7%, Under 5.5 cards hit at 76.9%, Under 11.5 corners hit at 74.2%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 71.1%, while Over 1.5 missed at 70.6%. All figures appear only once, reflecting the match’s key statistical moments.