HNK Rijeka vs NK Osijek Result & Analysis

The model favours a HNK Rijeka victory, with a 53% chance of a home win, 28% for a draw and 19% for an away win. Expecting 2.4 goals overall, the most likely total is two, and the single scoreline the model sees as most probable is 1-1, with a 13.1% chance. Rijeka, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 0.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. Osijek, on the road, averages 1.09 goals scored and 1.55 conceded against similar opposition. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls (89.9%), Over 2.5 cards (88.8%), Under 11.5 corners (84.3%), Over 21.5 fouls (80.3%), Over 3.5 cards (75.6%), Under 10.5 corners (75.6%), and Over 1.5 goals (71.1%). The only selection with a miss is Under 3.5 (77.2%). Recent form shows Rijeka coming off a draw, while Osijek is riding a win streak.

The match saw Rijeka extend a modest run, coming off a draw, while Osijek entered on a winning streak. The model’s favourite, a home win, proved correct as Rijeka triumphed 4-2. The predicted 2-goal total was surpassed, but the model’s selection of the 2-goal outcome was right. The favourite’s probability was 53%. The model’s picks were largely accurate: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 89.9%, Over 2.5 cards at 88.8%, Under 11.5 corners at 84.3%, Over 21.5 fouls at 80.3%, Over 3.5 cards at 75.6%, Under 10.5 corners at 75.6%, and Over 1.5 at 71.1%. The only miss was Under 3.5, which fell short at 77.2%. Overall, the model’s predictions were largely vindicated.