PythiaFootballBETA
Inter is the clear favourite to win at home, with the model predicting a 80% chance of success. This is largely due to the team's strong performance at the San Siro, where they have averaged 2.56 goals scored and just 0.67 conceded against weaker opponents. Hellas Verona, on the other hand, has struggled on the road, averaging just 1 goal scored and 1.89 conceded against stronger opponents.
The model predicts a 14% chance of a draw and a 6% chance of an away win. The expected total number of goals is 3.3, with the most likely total number of goals being 3. The most likely score is 2-0 Inter, with a probability of 13.4%.
Inter's home form suggests they will continue to score and concede at a high rate, while Hellas Verona's away form indicates they will struggle to find the back of the net. The model's selections include Over 1.5 goals, with a probability of 84.4%, Home win, with a probability of 79.7% and an edge of 1%, and Over 21.5 fouls, with a probability of 71.6%. The home win percentage is 80%, the draw percentage is 14%, and the away win percentage is 6%.
In a shocking turn of events, the unbeaten Inter, who had not lost in their last 5 matches, were held to a 1-1 draw by Hellas Verona, ending their winning streak. The win extends their run of unbeaten matches to 6, but it was not enough to secure all three points. The pre-match favourite, Inter, with a 80% probability of winning, failed to come through, as the model's prediction of a home win was incorrect. The model's selection of a home win was wrong, while the selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with an 84.4% probability. The selection of Over 21.5 fouls missed, with a 71.6% probability.
Inter| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.17 | 0.97 | 2.43 | 1.14 | 1.94 | 0.81 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 1.60 | 1.40 | 2.00 | 1.83 | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (20) | 2.45 | 0.75 | 2.75 | 0.62 | 2.25 | 0.83 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+20pp vs league) | |||||
Hellas Verona| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 1.63 | 0.73 | 1.60 | 0.73 | 1.67 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 1.00 | 1.60 | 0.88 | 1.50 | 1.14 | 1.71 |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.47 | 1.67 | 0.57 | 1.71 | 0.38 | 1.62 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-10pp vs league) | |||||
| Hellas Verona goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 9.5% | 6.9% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 13% | 8.3% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 12% | 7.3% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 7.8% | 4.8% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
InterHellas VeronaInter| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.3 | 10.2 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 24.0 | 23.7 | 24.2 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 8.5 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 24.1 | 22.4 | 25.5 |
| vs Weaker (32) | 9.7 | 11.4 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 23.9 | 24.3 | 23.4 |
| % over line | 52% | 67% | 38% | 40% | 42% | 38% | 56% | 62% | 50% |
| % under line | 48% | 33% | 62% | 60% | 58% | 62% | 44% | 38% | 50% |
Hellas Verona| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.7 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 26.0 | 25.4 | 26.6 |
| vs Stronger (25) | 8.8 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 25.1 | 24.4 | 25.7 |
| vs Similar (25) | 8.5 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 27.0 | 26.4 | 27.7 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 38% | 40% | 36% | 58% | 52% | 64% | 78% | 68% | 88% |
| % under line | 62% | 60% | 64% | 42% | 48% | 36% | 22% | 32% | 12% |
Inter| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.40 | 0.93 | 0.50 | 0.88 | 0.31 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 0.60 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.83 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (20) | 1.05 | 0.25 | 0.88 | 0.25 | 1.17 | 0.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+43pp vs league) | |||||
Hellas Verona| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.63 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.53 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.43 |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.29 | 0.43 | 0.38 | 0.88 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+23pp vs league) | |||||
Inter| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.27 | 0.57 | 1.50 | 0.64 | 1.06 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 1.00 | 0.70 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.25 |
| vs Weaker (20) | 1.40 | 0.50 | 1.88 | 0.38 | 1.08 | 0.58 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+27pp vs league) | |||||
Hellas Verona| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.27 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 0.40 | 1.00 | 0.38 | 0.75 | 0.43 | 1.29 |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.13 | 1.00 | 0.29 | 1.29 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+0pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 85.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 84.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 84.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home win | 79.7% | 1.18 | - | - | - | - | - | +0.6% | ✗ Miss |
| Under 11.5 corners | 75.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 73.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 2.5 cards | 70.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 4.5 cards | 70.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 03/05/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 23/11/24 | A | 0-5 | |
| 26/05/24 | A | 2-2 | |
| 06/01/24 | H | 2-1 | |
| 03/05/23 | A | 0-6 | |
| 14/01/23 | H | 1-0 | |
| 09/04/22 | H | 2-0 |
Inter| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 17/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 3-4 | |
| 05/04/26 | H | 5-2 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 08/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 28/02/26 | H | 2-0 |
Hellas Verona| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 15/03/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 08/03/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 28/02/26 | H | 1-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Inter | 38 | 87 | 71% | 2.3 | 89 | 35 | +54 | 3.3 | 84% | 55% | 37% | 9.2 | 55% | 3.5 | 38% | 24.2 | 58% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 60% |
| 2 |  Napoli | 38 | 76 | 61% | 2.0 | 58 | 36 | +22 | 2.5 | 68% | 53% | 26% | 8.2 | 26% | 3.5 | 42% | 23.4 | 61% | 459 | 206 | 101 | 152 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 59% |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 38 | 73 | 61% | 1.9 | 59 | 31 | +28 | 2.4 | 66% | 37% | 18% | 8.6 | 34% | 4.1 | 66% | 27.8 | 89% | 471 | 138 | 118 | 215 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 56% |
| 4 |  Como | 38 | 71 | 53% | 1.9 | 65 | 29 | +36 | 2.5 | 71% | 45% | 24% | 7.7 | 24% | 4.6 | 68% | 25.9 | 79% | 488 | 261 | 83 | 144 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 62% |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 38 | 70 | 53% | 1.8 | 53 | 35 | +18 | 2.3 | 66% | 45% | 18% | 8.6 | 42% | 3.8 | 58% | 21.9 | 58% | 1279 | 442 | 385 | 452 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 52% |
| 6 |  Juventus | 38 | 69 | 50% | 1.8 | 61 | 34 | +27 | 2.5 | 74% | 39% | 24% | 9.2 | 37% | 3.7 | 59% | 22.3 | 61% | 569 | 240 | 140 | 189 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 58% |
| 7 |  Atalanta | 38 | 59 | 39% | 1.6 | 51 | 36 | +15 | 2.3 | 74% | 37% | 18% | 9.8 | 50% | 3.4 | 47% | 22.1 | 53% | 438 | 158 | 128 | 153 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 55% |
| 8 |  Bologna | 38 | 56 | 42% | 1.5 | 49 | 46 | +3 | 2.5 | 71% | 45% | 26% | 8.7 | 34% | 4.1 | 51% | 27.8 | 89% | 218 | 104 | 34 | 79 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 55% |
| 9 |  Lazio | 38 | 54 | 37% | 1.4 | 41 | 40 | +1 | 2.1 | 66% | 32% | 16% | 7.9 | 29% | 4.9 | 76% | 25.1 | 68% | 240 | 60 | 86 | 93 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 50% |
| 10 |  Udinese | 38 | 50 | 37% | 1.3 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 2.4 | 68% | 45% | 21% | 9.3 | 39% | 3.7 | 53% | 25.1 | 79% | 157 | 46 | 39 | 72 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 11 |  Sassuolo | 38 | 49 | 37% | 1.3 | 46 | 50 | -4 | 2.5 | 74% | 55% | 21% | 8.7 | 50% | 4.5 | 65% | 24.9 | 68% | 194 | 90 | 53 | 52 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 12 |  Parma | 38 | 45 | 29% | 1.2 | 28 | 46 | -18 | 1.9 | 58% | 29% | 16% | 8.8 | 37% | 3.9 | 61% | 24.3 | 79% | 142 | 35 | 60 | 46 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 44% |
| 13 |  Torino | 38 | 45 | 32% | 1.2 | 44 | 63 | -19 | 2.8 | 74% | 63% | 29% | 8.5 | 42% | 3.5 | 44% | 24.5 | 68% | 144 | 43 | 46 | 54 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 44% |
| 14 |  Cagliari | 38 | 43 | 29% | 1.1 | 40 | 53 | -13 | 2.4 | 76% | 50% | 18% | 8.9 | 37% | 4.1 | 58% | 28.6 | 89% | 134 | 51 | 31 | 52 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 46% |
| 15 |  Fiorentina | 38 | 42 | 24% | 1.1 | 41 | 50 | -9 | 2.4 | 71% | 50% | 24% | 9.0 | 47% | 4.8 | 78% | 28.1 | 92% | 330 | 125 | 107 | 98 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 51% |
| 16 |  Genoa | 38 | 41 | 26% | 1.1 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 2.4 | 76% | 53% | 16% | 8.6 | 37% | 4.5 | 76% | 27.4 | 87% | 182 | 54 | 44 | 84 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 49% |
| 17 |  Lecce | 38 | 38 | 26% | 1.0 | 28 | 50 | -22 | 2.1 | 61% | 37% | 13% | 9.6 | 58% | 3.8 | 50% | 26.7 | 74% | 72 | 20 | 16 | 37 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 42% |
| 18 |  Cremonese | 38 | 34 | 21% | 0.9 | 32 | 57 | -25 | 2.3 | 68% | 45% | 24% | 9.5 | 47% | 3.8 | 46% | 26.4 | 84% | 49 | 12 | 15 | 22 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 19 | Hellas Verona | 38 | 21 | 8% | 0.6 | 25 | 61 | -36 | 2.3 | 68% | 50% | 21% | 9.0 | 42% | 4.1 | 54% | 25.3 | 74% | 57 | 13 | 14 | 30 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 40% |
| 20 |  Pisa | 38 | 18 | 5% | 0.5 | 26 | 71 | -45 | 2.6 | 66% | 53% | 32% | 8.4 | 37% | 3.8 | 53% | 24.7 | 79% | 71 | 24 | 26 | 22 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 40% |