Juventus, fresh from a 1-0 victory over Frosinone, head into the match with a solid home record, scoring an average of 1.82 goals and conceding just 0.82 against weaker opposition. Parma, on the other hand, has struggled on the road, averaging only 0.4 goals while conceding 1.4 against stronger teams. The model therefore favours a home win, assigning a 61% chance to Juventus, a 26% chance for a draw and a 14% chance for Parma. The most likely final score is 1-0, with a 14.8% probability, and the expected total goals is 2.4, with 27% of the time the total will be exactly 2. Juventus is expected to win 61%, a draw 26%, and Parma 14%. The model’s suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.6%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.5%), Under 6.5 (99.2% with a 5% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.9%), Under 5.5 (97.4% with an 8% edge), Away under 2.5 goals (97.2% with a 2% edge), and Home +2 handicap (96.2%).
Results analysis
The match saw Juventus extend their two-game winning run, beating Parma 2-0 to confirm the model’s predicted home win. The favourite, Home win, was right, with a pre-match probability of 61%. The final score matched the most likely outcome, 1-0 or 2-0, and the 2-0 result was indeed the favoured 2-goal scoreline. The model’s selections performed strongly: Under 7.5 hit at 99.8%, Away under 3.5 goals at 99.6%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.6%, Under 6.5 at 99.2%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.9%, Under 5.5 at 97.4%, Away under 2.5 goals at 97.2%, and Home +2 handicap at 96.2%. All picks were settled and hit.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Juventus win✓ Hit
60.7%
Avg Implied 77.0% · @ 1.23
Edge
-16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Superbet
1.26
Dafabet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Draw✗ Miss
25.6%
Avg Implied 15.7% · @ 6.06
Edge
+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
6.50
BetVictor
6.50
1xBet
6.35
Marathonbet
6.25
Dafabet
6.20
Parma win✗ Miss
13.7%
Avg Implied 7.3% · @ 13.02
Edge
+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
15.50
Marathonbet
15.25
BetVictor
15.00
Pinnacle
14.36
Betano
14.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Juventus
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
0.83
2.00
0.67
1.53
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.80
1.20
2.50
0.25
1.33
1.83
vs Weaker (20)
1.75
0.65
1.82
0.82
1.67
0.44
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Parma) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Parma
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.27
0.81
1.44
0.79
1.07
vs Stronger (11)
0.73
1.82
1.00
2.17
0.40
1.40
vs Similar (19)
0.84
0.95
0.70
1.00
1.00
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Juventus) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.2%
@ 1.22-6.9%
Under 1.5
29.8%
@ 4.13+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Under
Unibet
4.35
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.33
BetVictor
4.20
Superbet
4.15
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.0%
@ 1.73-12.1%
Under 2.5
57.0%
@ 2.12+12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.81
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathonbet
1.76
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Under
SBO
2.26
10Bet
2.20
1xBet
2.15
Unibet
2.14
Betano
2.12
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.1%
@ 2.83-11.2%
Under 3.5
77.9%
@ 1.42+11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
2.98
Betfair
2.88
Betano
2.87
Superbet
2.82
Under
10Bet
1.45
Unibet
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.42
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
42.0%
@ 2.44+3.8%
No
58.0%
@ 1.51-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Marathonbet
2.52
1xBet
2.52
Bet365
2.50
Betfair
2.50
BetVictor
2.45
No
10Bet
1.57
Superbet
1.55
Unibet
1.55
William Hil
1.53
Betano
1.53
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.4%@ 5.99+6.9%
2-0 ✓
13.2%@ 5.20+4.6%
1-1
11.8%@ 10.86+7.7%
0-0
10.1%@ 12.77+6.6%
2-1
9.2%@ 9.02+4.2%
3-0
7.5%@ 6.58+0.7%
0-1
5.2%@ 23.00+3.3%
3-1
5.2%@ 11.38+1.3%
Juventus goals ↓
Parma goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
5.2%
2.2%
0.5%
0.1%
1
14%
12%
3.7%
0.9%
0.1%
2
13%
9.2%
3.2%
0.7%
0.1%
3
7.5%
5.2%
1.8%
0.4%
0.1%
4
3.2%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Juventus goals (down), columns = Parma goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter
2.29
Napoli
2.00
AS Roma
1.92
Como
1.87
AC Milan
1.84
Juventus
1.82
Atalanta
1.55
Bologna
1.47
Lazio
1.42
Udinese
1.32
Sassuolo
1.29
Torino
1.18
Parma
1.18
Cagliari
1.13
Venezia
1.12
Fiorentina
1.11
Genoa
1.08
Frosinone
1.03
Monza
1.01
Lecce
1.00
Juventus is 0.63 points better than Parma in terms of average points per game (1.82 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter
2.34
Como
1.71
Juventus
1.61
AS Roma
1.55
Napoli
1.53
AC Milan
1.39
Atalanta
1.34
Bologna
1.29
Sassuolo
1.21
Udinese
1.18
Torino
1.16
Lazio
1.08
Genoa
1.08
Fiorentina
1.08
Cagliari
1.05
Venezia
1.00
Frosinone
0.91
Monza
0.90
Lecce
0.74
Parma
0.74
Juventus is 0.87 goals better than Parma in terms of goals scored per game (1.61 vs 0.74).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Como
0.76
AS Roma
0.82
Juventus
0.89
AC Milan
0.92
Inter
0.92
Napoli
0.95
Atalanta
0.95
Lazio
1.05
Parma
1.21
Bologna
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Fiorentina
1.32
Sassuolo
1.32
Lecce
1.32
Genoa
1.34
Cagliari
1.39
Venezia
1.48
Frosinone
1.62
Monza
1.64
Torino
1.66
Juventus is 0.32 goals better than Parma in terms of goals conceded per game (0.89 vs 1.21).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Como
62%
Inter
60%
Napoli
59%
Juventus
58%
AS Roma
56%
Atalanta
55%
Bologna
55%
AC Milan
52%
Fiorentina
51%
Lazio
50%
Genoa
49%
Sassuolo
46%
Udinese
46%
Cagliari
46%
Torino
44%
Parma
44%
Lecce
42%
Juventus is 13.5 percentage points better than Parma in terms of average possession (58% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Juventus
For 7.0 · Against 3.7 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 10.2 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Parma
For 3.0 · Against 6.0 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.5 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 11.9 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Juventus
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.0
9.5
3.6
3.5
3.7
23.3
21.9
24.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
9.4
9.4
9.2
3.9
4.0
3.8
24.1
24.9
23.2
vs Weaker (33)
9.9
10.3
9.6
3.4
3.2
3.6
22.9
20.1
25.3
% over line
44%
46%
42%
58%
54%
62%
66%
58%
73%
% under line
56%
54%
58%
42%
46%
38%
34%
42%
27%
This opponent (Parma) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Parma
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
8.1
9.0
3.9
4.0
3.7
24.4
24.4
24.3
vs Stronger (19)
8.6
7.3
10.0
3.4
3.8
2.9
20.7
21.4
20.0
vs Similar (31)
8.5
8.6
8.4
4.2
4.2
4.1
26.6
26.4
26.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
38%
40%
36%
60%
68%
52%
74%
76%
72%
% under line
62%
60%
64%
40%
32%
48%
26%
24%
28%
This opponent (Juventus) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Frosinone
10.2
Lecce
9.9
Juventus
9.7
Bologna
9.4
Udinese
9.3
Atalanta
9.3
Inter
9.3
Monza
9.0
Sassuolo
9.0
Venezia
9.0
Fiorentina
8.8
Cagliari
8.8
Lazio
8.7
AS Roma
8.6
Genoa
8.6
AC Milan
8.6
Torino
8.5
Parma
8.5
Napoli
8.4
Como
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lazio
5.4
Fiorentina
4.9
Frosinone
4.8
Como
4.6
Monza
4.5
Genoa
4.4
Sassuolo
4.3
Venezia
4.3
AS Roma
4.2
Bologna
4.1
Cagliari
3.9
Parma
3.9
Lecce
3.8
Udinese
3.8
AC Milan
3.7
Juventus
3.7
Atalanta
3.6
Napoli
3.4
Torino
3.4
Inter
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Frosinone
30.2
Venezia
29.6
Bologna
28.5
Fiorentina
28.3
AS Roma
28.2
Monza
27.4
Genoa
27.3
Cagliari
27.2
Como
26.3
Lecce
25.5
Udinese
25.1
Lazio
25.0
Sassuolo
24.5
Torino
24.4
Parma
24.4
Inter
24.1
Napoli
23.5
Juventus
23.3
Atalanta
21.9
AC Milan
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
46.8%
@ 1.81-4.9%
Under 9.5
53.2%
@ 1.94+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.85
Unibet
1.82
Bet365
1.82
Pinnacle
1.82
Superbet
1.82
Under
Betano
2.02
Pinnacle
2.01
Bet365
1.98
1xBet
1.96
Marathonbet
1.96
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
45.7%
@ 2.11+1.6%
Under 3.5
54.3%
@ 1.67-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.28
Pinnacle
2.26
Betano
2.12
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
2.00
Under
Superbet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.67
Pinnacle
1.63
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
60.2%
@ 1.43-3.4%
Under 21.5
39.8%
@ 2.50+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.43
Under
1xBet
2.50
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Juventus or Draw✓ Hit
86.1%
Avg Implied 91.7% · @ 1.04
Edge
-5.6%
61%
26%
14%
covers Juventus + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.05
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
10Bet
1.04
William Hil
1.04
Juventus or Parma✓ Hit
72.8%
Avg Implied 84.7% · @ 1.12
Edge
-11.9%
61%
26%
14%
covers Juventus + Parma
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
William Hil
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Betano
1.13
Draw or Parma✗ Miss
41.0%
Avg Implied 23.6% · @ 4.03
Edge
+17.4%
61%
26%
14%
covers Draw + Parma
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
4.35
1xBet
4.30
Betfair
4.20
Betano
4.10
10Bet
4.00
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Juventus over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.4%
@ 1.06-8.6%
Under
20.6%
@ 7.80+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Under
Bet365
9.00
1xBet
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Superbet
7.50
Juventus over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
46.9%
@ 1.38-20.5%
Under
53.1%
@ 2.86+20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Under
10Bet
2.95
Pinnacle
2.95
Unibet
2.90
Marathonbet
2.89
BetVictor
2.88
Juventus over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
21.2%
@ 2.22-20.9%
Under
78.8%
@ 1.61+20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.35
1xBet
2.30
Marathonbet
2.25
Superbet
2.22
Betano
2.22
Under
10Bet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Pinnacle
1.61
Juventus over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.6%
@ 4.13-14.9%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.20+14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.40
Pinnacle
4.34
BetVictor
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.10
Under
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Parma over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
47.5%
@ 2.23+5.8%
Under
52.5%
@ 1.59-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.38
Marathonbet
2.32
BetVictor
2.30
Betfair
2.25
1xBet
2.23
Under
10Bet
1.65
Superbet
1.65
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Unibet
1.62
Parma over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
13.6%
@ 7.47+1.1%
Under
86.4%
@ 1.07-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.30
Bet365
8.00
BetVictor
8.00
Betfair
8.00
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Parma over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
2.8%
@ 22.17-1.6%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.01+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
25.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
Parma over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.4%
@ 85.00-99.6%
Under
99.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
85.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Juventus, so a minus line means Juventus give that many goals of a start and Parma receive them. At -1, Juventus must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Juventus win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Juventus)Actual: Draw
Juventus -2
13.9%
@ 2.79-18.3%
Draw -2
18.7%
@ 3.79-5.0%
Parma +2
67.3%
@ 2.04+23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
2.92
Betfair
2.80
Marathonbet
2.77
10Bet
2.75
Unibet
2.75
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.82
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Away
Marathonbet
2.11
10Bet
2.05
Superbet
2.05
Unibet
2.02
Betfair
2.00
Handicap -1 (Juventus)Actual: Juventus
Juventus -1
32.7%
@ 1.71-20.5%
Draw -1
26.3%
@ 3.71+1.8%
Parma +1
41.0%
@ 4.06+18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
Unibet
1.68
Betfair
1.67
Draw
Superbet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.64
Away
Marathonbet
4.35
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Handicap +1 (Juventus)Actual: Juventus
Juventus +1
86.1%
@ 1.04-4.0%
Draw +1
10.1%
@ 13.00+2.8%
Parma -1
3.8%
@ 35.00+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
12.00
Away
Betfair
41.00
Bet365
29.00
Handicap +2 (Juventus)Actual: Juventus
Juventus +2
96.2%
Draw +2
3.1%
Parma -2
0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Juventus
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.27
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.30
0.75
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (20)
0.70
0.25
0.64
0.45
0.78
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Parma) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Parma
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.50
0.25
0.56
0.36
0.43
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
0.82
0.33
1.00
0.20
0.60
vs Similar (19)
0.32
0.32
0.20
0.30
0.44
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Juventus) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
71.0%
@ 1.32+0.0%
Under 0.5
29.0%
@ 3.24-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
BetVictor
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
Under
Superbet
3.50
10Bet
3.40
Pinnacle
3.32
Betfair
3.30
Unibet
3.25
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
33.4%
@ 2.50-4.2%
Under 1.5
66.6%
@ 1.50+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.68
Marathonbet
2.63
1xBet
2.63
Betano
2.62
Bet365
2.50
Under
10Bet
1.55
Superbet
1.55
William Hil
1.53
Bet365
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.5%
@ 6.04-2.9%
Under 2.5
87.5%
@ 1.10+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Betfair
6.50
1xBet
6.20
Marathonbet
6.20
William Hil
6.00
Under
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Juventus over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
55.0%
@ 1.45-9.5%
Under
45.0%
@ 2.63+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
Superbet
1.43
Unibet
1.42
Under
10Bet
2.80
Pinnacle
2.72
Unibet
2.63
Superbet
2.62
1xBet
2.55
Juventus over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
20.5%
@ 3.10-9.4%
Under
79.5%
@ 1.32+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.25
1xBet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.20
Unibet
3.10
Superbet
3.00
Under
10Bet
1.36
Superbet
1.34
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Juventus over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.4%
@ 7.58-7.8%
Under
95.6%
@ 1.05+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.60
Unibet
7.50
Superbet
7.40
Betano
7.40
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Parma over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
29.4%
@ 4.14+7.0%
Under
70.6%
@ 1.20-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.51
Marathonbet
4.40
1xBet
4.30
Betano
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Under
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Parma over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.7%
@ 15.38-1.6%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.02+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Parma over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.4%
@ 85.00-99.6%
Under
99.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
85.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Juventus
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.57
1.33
0.33
0.87
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.20
0.90
1.75
0.25
0.83
1.33
vs Weaker (20)
1.05
0.40
1.18
0.36
0.89
0.44
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Parma) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Parma
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.56
0.88
0.43
0.64
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
1.00
0.67
1.17
0.20
0.80
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.63
0.50
0.70
0.56
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Juventus) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
79.6%
@ 1.19+1.1%
Under 0.5
20.4%
@ 4.34-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Under
10Bet
4.50
Superbet
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Marathonbet
4.40
1xBet
4.40
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
46.1%
@ 1.95-1.9%
Under 1.5
53.9%
@ 1.80+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Marathonbet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Superbet
1.97
Under
10Bet
1.85
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.84
Superbet
1.83
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.7%
@ 3.98-4.8%
Under 2.5
81.3%
@ 1.22+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.50
Superbet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.05
1xBet
4.05
Bet365
4.00
Under
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Juventus over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
63.8%
@ 1.31-7.3%
Under
36.2%
@ 3.22+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Betano
1.30
Under
Betano
3.30
1xBet
3.20
Superbet
3.15
Juventus over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
30.8%
@ 2.38-8.2%
Under
69.2%
@ 1.52+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.45
1xBet
2.43
Marathonbet
2.36
Betano
2.35
10Bet
2.30
Under
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.52
1xBet
1.49
Superbet
1.49
Juventus over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.8%
@ 5.36-9.4%
Under
92.2%
@ 1.12+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.70
Superbet
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Betano
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Parma over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
33.3%
@ 3.31+5.3%
Under
66.7%
@ 1.29-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.55
1xBet
3.30
Betano
3.25
Superbet
3.15
Under
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.31
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.25
Parma over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.5%
@ 10.75-2.2%
Under
93.5%
@ 1.02+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.25
1xBet
8.00
Under
1xBet
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Parma over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.1%
@ 60.00-98.9%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
60.00
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Betfair
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.4%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Unibet
1.03
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
97.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.6%
1.05
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.3%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
93.5%
1.02
1xBet
1.03
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
92.5%
1.15
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.15
+10.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.4%
1.20
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
+14.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.2%
1.12
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.10
-
+9.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.5%
1.10
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.11
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
86.4%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
-1.1%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
86.1%
1.15
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
-
-
-
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
86.1%
1.04
Superbet
1.05
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
10Bet
1.04
William Hil
1.04
-5.6%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
86.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
-4.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.3%
1.22
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.6%
1.19
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.19
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
79.5%
1.32
10Bet
1.36
Superbet
1.34
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.30
Unibet
1.30
+9.4%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
79.4%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
-8.6%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.9%
1.42
10Bet
1.45
Unibet
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.42
+11.2%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.0%
1.34
Superbet
1.40
Betano
1.35
Unibet
1.34
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
+7.4%
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
73.1%
1.32
Superbet
1.33
Unibet
1.32
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.8%
1.12
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
William Hil
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Betano
1.13
-11.9%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
71.5%
1.46
1xBet
1.46
-
-
-
-
+9.2%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.0%
1.32
Betano
1.37
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
BetVictor
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
+0.0%
✗ Miss
Away under 0.5 HT goals
70.6%
1.20
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
-7.0%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.2%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
-6.9%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Juventus · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dušan Vlahović35%
Jérémie Boga24%
Kenan Yıldız21%
Jonathan David20%
Weston McKennie19%
Federico Gatti14%
Filip Kostić13%
Juan Cabal11%
Bremer10%
Francisco Conceição10%
Khéphren Thuram9%
Manuel Locatelli6%
Andrea Cambiaso6%
Loïs Openda6%
Vasilije Adžić6%
Lloyd Kelly4%
Pierre Kalulu4%
Fabio Miretti3%
Teun Koopmeiners2%
Mattia Perin0%
Daniele Rugani0%
Michele Di Gregorio0%
João Mário0%
Emil Holm0%
Edon Zhegrova0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Manuel Locatelli23%
Juan Cabal21%
Bremer16%
Lloyd Kelly15%
Weston McKennie12%
Teun Koopmeiners11%
Andrea Cambiaso11%
Francisco Conceição10%
Kenan Yıldız9%
João Mário8%
Federico Gatti7%
Fabio Miretti6%
Pierre Kalulu6%
Jérémie Boga6%
Vasilije Adžić6%
Khéphren Thuram4%
Filip Kostić4%
Edon Zhegrova4%
Michele Di Gregorio3%
Loïs Openda0%
Mattia Perin0%
Daniele Rugani0%
Jonathan David0%
Dušan Vlahović0%
Emil Holm0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kenan Yıldız17%
Francisco Conceição12%
Jonathan David11%
Andrea Cambiaso11%
Weston McKennie10%
Pierre Kalulu10%
Fabio Miretti10%
Khéphren Thuram9%
Dušan Vlahović9%
João Mário8%
Bremer6%
Filip Kostić4%
Lloyd Kelly4%
Manuel Locatelli4%
Teun Koopmeiners2%
Loïs Openda0%
Mattia Perin0%
Daniele Rugani0%
Jérémie Boga0%
Michele Di Gregorio0%
Emil Holm0%
Edon Zhegrova0%
Juan Cabal0%
Federico Gatti0%
Vasilije Adžić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Dušan Vlahović26%
Kenan Yıldız21%
Jérémie Boga18%
Francisco Conceição14%
Khéphren Thuram11%
Jonathan David11%
Weston McKennie8%
Federico Gatti7%
Bremer6%
Fabio Miretti6%
Manuel Locatelli6%
Vasilije Adžić6%
Loïs Openda3%
Teun Koopmeiners2%
Andrea Cambiaso2%
Mattia Perin0%
Daniele Rugani0%
Filip Kostić0%
Lloyd Kelly0%
Michele Di Gregorio0%
João Mário0%
Emil Holm0%
Edon Zhegrova0%
Juan Cabal0%
Pierre Kalulu0%
Parma
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
S. Lontani33%
Adrián Bernabé0%
Enrico Delprato0%
E. Valeri0%
Edoardo Corvi0%
E. Touré0%
M. Keita0%
C. Ordoñez0%
M. Troilo0%
S. Britschgi0%
Abdou-Salam Konate0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Enrico Delprato33%
M. Troilo33%
Abdou-Salam Konate33%
Adrián Bernabé0%
E. Valeri0%
Edoardo Corvi0%
E. Touré0%
M. Keita0%
C. Ordoñez0%
S. Lontani0%
S. Britschgi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
E. Touré25%
Adrián Bernabé0%
Enrico Delprato0%
E. Valeri0%
Edoardo Corvi0%
M. Keita0%
C. Ordoñez0%
M. Troilo0%
S. Lontani0%
S. Britschgi0%
Abdou-Salam Konate0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
S. Lontani33%
Adrián Bernabé0%
Enrico Delprato0%
E. Valeri0%
Edoardo Corvi0%
E. Touré0%
M. Keita0%
C. Ordoñez0%
M. Troilo0%
S. Britschgi0%
Abdou-Salam Konate0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
COM (34)
€488m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
PAR (28)
€142m
CAG (31)
€134m
VEN (36)
€117m
FRO (33)
€84m
LEC (31)
€72m
MON (29)
€70m
Juventus's squad is €427m more valuable than Parma's (€569m vs €142m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COM (13)
€261m
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
VEN (9)
€39m
PAR (8)
€35m
FRO (8)
€34m
MON (11)
€26m
LEC (9)
€20m
Juventus's attack is €205m more valuable than Parma's (€240m vs €35m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
COM (7)
€83m
PAR (8)
€60m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
VEN (11)
€31m
CAG (9)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
MON (7)
€24m
LEC (8)
€16m
Juventus's midfield is €80m more valuable than Parma's (€140m vs €60m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
COM (14)
€144m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
VEN (16)
€47m
PAR (12)
€46m
LEC (14)
€37m
FRO (14)
€24m
MON (11)
€20m
Juventus's defence is €143m more valuable than Parma's (€189m vs €46m).
Italy: Serie A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
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AS Roma
Inter
AC Milan
Atalanta
Lazio
Udinese
Como
Frosinone
Napoli
Sassuolo
Cagliari
Lecce
Torino
Bologna
Genoa
Monza
Venezia
Fiorentina