Lazio’s home advantage and recent 2-game winning streak make a home win the model’s pick, with a 48% chance of victory, 28% for a draw and 24% for Genoa. The expected total is 2.6 goals, most likely a 2-goal match; the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 13.3%. Lazio averages 1.86 goals scored and 1.0 conceded at home against weaker opposition, while Genoa, playing away against stronger teams, averages only 0.57 goals scored and 1.57 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.9%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.9%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.2% with a 3% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.7% with a 1% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.4% with a 4% edge), Under 5.5 (96.6% with a 2% edge) and Home under 3.5 goals (95.6% with a 3% edge).
Results analysis
Lazio extended a three-game winning streak with a 1-0 triumph over Genoa, keeping the home side’s recent form on a high. The model’s favourite, a home win, proved correct, and the final score matched the predicted 1-0 outcome. The pre-match probability for a Lazio victory stood at 49%. The model’s selections largely hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.7% hit, Under 6.5 at 98.9% hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.9% hit, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.0% hit, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.7% hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.3% hit, Under 5.5 at 96.6% hit, and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 95.7% hit. All predictions were settled accurately.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lazio win✓ Hit
49.3%
Avg Implied 40.9% · @ 2.32
Edge
+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.43
Pinnacle
2.39
Marathonbet
2.38
Dafabet
2.37
Betano
2.37
Draw✗ Miss
27.8%
Avg Implied 32.3% · @ 2.94
Edge
-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.04
Pinnacle
3.03
Superbet
3.00
Marathonbet
2.97
Dafabet
2.95
Genoa win✗ Miss
22.9%
Avg Implied 26.8% · @ 3.55
Edge
-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.65
1xBet
3.64
Superbet
3.60
Dafabet
3.60
Betfair
3.60
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lazio
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.10
1.27
1.40
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.33
0.00
3.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (13)
0.85
1.15
0.86
1.57
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (14)
1.29
0.79
1.86
1.00
0.71
0.57
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Genoa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Genoa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.33
1.47
1.47
1.00
1.20
vs Stronger (15)
0.80
1.73
1.00
1.88
0.57
1.57
vs Similar (15)
1.67
0.93
2.00
1.00
1.38
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Lazio) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
73.5%
@ 1.49+10.0%
Under 1.5
26.5%
@ 2.59-10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.52
BetVictor
1.50
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Under
Betfair
2.70
Unibet
2.70
Pinnacle
2.69
Superbet
2.67
Bet365
2.62
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.9%
@ 2.53+9.2%
Under 2.5
53.1%
@ 1.53-9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.66
Pinnacle
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Marathonbet
2.58
Betano
2.55
Under
1xBet
1.56
Betano
1.55
SBO
1.54
Betfair
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.3%
@ 4.88+6.0%
Under 3.5
74.7%
@ 1.17-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.40
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.90
10Bet
4.75
Under
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.9%
@ 2.02+4.7%
No
49.1%
@ 1.73-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
1xBet
2.07
Marathonbet
2.07
Superbet
2.07
Bet365
2.05
Unibet
2.02
No
Betfair
1.83
Unibet
1.75
10Bet
1.75
William Hil
1.75
Betano
1.75
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%@ 5.54+5.2%
1-0 ✓
11.0%@ 5.87+3.3%
2-0
9.5%@ 9.69+4.9%
2-1
9.4%@ 9.09+4.5%
0-0
9.0%@ 6.55+2.2%
0-1
6.5%@ 7.78+0.8%
1-2
6.0%@ 11.95+2.2%
3-0
4.9%@ 21.41+2.8%
Lazio goals ↓
Genoa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.0%
6.5%
3.8%
1.3%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
6.0%
2.0%
0.5%
2
9.5%
9.4%
4.7%
1.5%
0.4%
3
4.9%
4.9%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.9%
1.9%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lazio goals (down), columns = Genoa goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter
2.29
Napoli
2.00
AS Roma
1.92
Como
1.87
AC Milan
1.84
Juventus
1.82
Atalanta
1.55
Bologna
1.47
Lazio
1.42
Udinese
1.32
Sassuolo
1.29
Torino
1.18
Parma
1.18
Cagliari
1.13
Venezia
1.12
Fiorentina
1.11
Genoa
1.08
Frosinone
1.03
Monza
1.01
Lecce
1.00
Lazio is 0.34 points better than Genoa in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.08).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter
2.34
Como
1.71
Juventus
1.61
AS Roma
1.55
Napoli
1.53
AC Milan
1.39
Atalanta
1.34
Bologna
1.29
Sassuolo
1.21
Udinese
1.18
Torino
1.16
Lazio
1.08
Genoa
1.08
Fiorentina
1.08
Cagliari
1.05
Venezia
1.00
Frosinone
0.91
Monza
0.90
Lecce
0.74
Parma
0.74
Lazio and Genoa are level in goals scored per game (both 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Como
0.76
AS Roma
0.82
Juventus
0.89
AC Milan
0.92
Inter
0.92
Napoli
0.95
Atalanta
0.95
Lazio
1.05
Parma
1.21
Bologna
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Fiorentina
1.32
Sassuolo
1.32
Lecce
1.32
Genoa
1.34
Cagliari
1.39
Venezia
1.48
Frosinone
1.62
Monza
1.64
Torino
1.66
Lazio is 0.29 goals better than Genoa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.05 vs 1.34).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Como
62%
Inter
60%
Napoli
59%
Juventus
58%
AS Roma
56%
Atalanta
55%
Bologna
55%
AC Milan
52%
Fiorentina
51%
Lazio
50%
Genoa
49%
Sassuolo
46%
Udinese
46%
Cagliari
46%
Torino
44%
Parma
44%
Lecce
42%
Lazio is 1.6 percentage points better than Genoa in terms of average possession (50% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lazio
For 4.0 · Against 4.7 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 12.1 · Total 24.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Genoa
For 4.3 · Against 3.5 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 2.9 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.5 · Against 13.7 · Total 23.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lazio
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
9.0
8.4
5.3
5.5
5.1
25.0
25.6
24.4
vs Stronger (6)
6.3
6.3
6.3
5.0
6.7
3.3
24.3
23.7
25.0
vs Similar (21)
9.6
10.1
9.1
5.8
6.5
5.2
24.4
25.9
23.1
vs Weaker (23)
8.5
8.8
8.2
4.9
4.3
5.5
25.7
25.8
25.6
% over line
34%
32%
36%
76%
80%
72%
74%
80%
68%
% under line
66%
68%
64%
24%
20%
28%
26%
20%
32%
This opponent (Genoa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Genoa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
7.8
9.4
4.2
4.7
3.8
27.3
27.3
27.3
vs Stronger (25)
9.1
9.1
9.1
3.9
4.3
3.4
26.5
27.5
25.4
vs Similar (25)
8.1
6.5
9.6
4.6
5.1
4.2
28.0
27.0
29.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
34%
24%
44%
72%
84%
60%
88%
92%
84%
% under line
66%
76%
56%
28%
16%
40%
12%
8%
16%
This opponent (Lazio) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Frosinone
10.2
Lecce
9.9
Juventus
9.7
Bologna
9.4
Atalanta
9.3
Inter
9.3
Udinese
9.2
Venezia
9.0
Monza
9.0
Fiorentina
8.9
Cagliari
8.8
Sassuolo
8.8
Lazio
8.7
AS Roma
8.6
Genoa
8.6
AC Milan
8.6
Parma
8.5
Torino
8.4
Napoli
8.4
Como
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lazio
5.4
Fiorentina
4.9
Frosinone
4.8
Como
4.6
Genoa
4.4
Sassuolo
4.4
Monza
4.3
Venezia
4.3
AS Roma
4.2
Bologna
4.1
Cagliari
3.9
Parma
3.8
Lecce
3.8
AC Milan
3.7
Udinese
3.7
Juventus
3.7
Atalanta
3.6
Napoli
3.4
Torino
3.4
Inter
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Frosinone
30.3
Venezia
29.6
Bologna
28.5
Fiorentina
28.3
AS Roma
28.2
Genoa
27.3
Cagliari
27.2
Monza
27.0
Como
26.3
Lecce
25.5
Udinese
25.1
Lazio
25.0
Sassuolo
24.6
Parma
24.4
Torino
24.2
Inter
24.1
Napoli
23.5
Juventus
23.5
Atalanta
21.9
AC Milan
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
38.0%
@ 2.27-2.7%
Under 9.5
62.0%
@ 1.56+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.32
Superbet
2.32
Pinnacle
2.29
Marathonbet
2.28
Betfair
2.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.61
Betfair
1.57
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.56
Unibet
1.55
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
60.5%
@ 1.76+7.2%
Under 3.5
39.5%
@ 2.01-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Unibet
1.82
Betano
1.80
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Under
Superbet
2.30
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.98
Pinnacle
1.91
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
73.9%
Under 21.5
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lazio or Draw✓ Hit
71.2%
Avg Implied 73.0% · @ 1.29
Edge
-1.9%
49%
28%
23%
covers Lazio + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.33
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Superbet
1.31
BetVictor
1.29
Lazio or Genoa✓ Hit
69.8%
Avg Implied 68.5% · @ 1.38
Edge
+1.3%
49%
28%
23%
covers Lazio + Genoa
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
Superbet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.38
Draw or Genoa✗ Miss
59.0%
Avg Implied 58.4% · @ 1.61
Edge
+0.5%
49%
28%
23%
covers Draw + Genoa
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.66
Unibet
1.63
Superbet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.63
1xBet
1.63
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lazio over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.1%
@ 1.33+2.9%
Under
26.9%
@ 3.13-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.24
Unibet
3.20
10Bet
3.20
Lazio over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
37.8%
@ 2.62+2.1%
Under
62.2%
@ 1.45-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.83
Marathonbet
2.73
BetVictor
2.63
Superbet
2.62
Bet365
2.62
Under
1xBet
1.48
Unibet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
Marathonbet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Lazio over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.6%
@ 6.39+0.0%
Under
85.4%
@ 1.09-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.50
1xBet
6.70
Marathonbet
6.60
BetVictor
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Lazio over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.4%
@ 13.49-2.6%
Under
95.6%
@ 1.02+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
17.00
Marathonbet
12.25
1xBet
12.20
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Unibet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Genoa over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
65.4%
@ 1.53+4.5%
Under
34.6%
@ 2.38-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Superbet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.53
Under
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.51
Betano
2.45
BetVictor
2.38
Unibet
2.38
Genoa over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
28.7%
@ 3.63+3.0%
Under
71.3%
@ 1.26-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.90
Marathonbet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.65
BetVictor
3.60
Under
1xBet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Genoa over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.2%
@ 10.45+0.2%
Under
90.8%
@ 1.03-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
1xBet
11.50
Marathonbet
10.75
Superbet
9.70
Unibet
9.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Genoa over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 25.33-1.5%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
34.00
Superbet
29.00
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lazio, so a minus line means Lazio give that many goals of a start and Genoa receive them. At -1, Lazio must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lazio win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lazio)Actual: Genoa
Lazio -2
6.9%
@ 10.91-1.3%
Draw -2
12.5%
@ 6.31-1.7%
Genoa +2
80.6%
@ 1.15+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
14.00
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
10.00
Unibet
10.00
Draw
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Superbet
6.70
10Bet
6.25
Unibet
6.00
Away
Unibet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.13
Handicap -1 (Lazio)Actual: Draw
Lazio -1
19.4%
@ 4.78+0.4%
Draw -1
21.7%
@ 3.67-3.0%
Genoa +1
59.0%
@ 1.61+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.65
10Bet
4.50
Draw
Superbet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.60
10Bet
3.60
Away
Superbet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.63
10Bet
1.62
Unibet
1.62
Betfair
1.57
Handicap +1 (Lazio)Actual: Lazio
Lazio +1
71.2%
@ 1.28+0.8%
Draw +1
17.3%
@ 4.80-1.6%
Genoa -1
11.6%
@ 8.38+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.26
Draw
Superbet
5.10
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
Unibet
4.80
10Bet
4.50
Away
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
9.00
10Bet
8.00
Unibet
8.00
Marathonbet
7.90
Handicap +2 (Lazio)Actual: Lazio
Lazio +2
88.4%
@ 1.05+0.7%
Draw +2
8.1%
@ 10.83-0.4%
Genoa -2
3.4%
@ 25.00-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
12.00
10Bet
8.50
Away
Betfair
31.00
Bet365
23.00
10Bet
21.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lazio
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.57
0.40
0.80
0.13
0.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (13)
0.31
0.69
0.43
1.00
0.17
0.33
vs Weaker (14)
0.21
0.36
0.43
0.43
0.00
0.29
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Genoa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Genoa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.63
0.53
0.60
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (15)
0.20
0.80
0.25
0.75
0.14
0.86
vs Similar (15)
0.73
0.47
0.86
0.43
0.62
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Lazio) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.9%
@ 1.54+7.1%
Under 0.5
32.1%
@ 2.40-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.63
Betano
1.62
Superbet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Under
Betfair
2.55
William Hil
2.50
SBO
2.49
Pinnacle
2.47
10Bet
2.45
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
28.9%
@ 3.55+2.5%
Under 1.5
71.1%
@ 1.27-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.70
Marathonbet
3.64
1xBet
3.64
Under
Pinnacle
1.32
William Hil
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Unibet
1.28
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
8.8%
@ 9.61-1.0%
Under 2.5
91.2%
@ 1.04+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
10.00
BetVictor
10.00
William Hil
10.00
Superbet
10.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.05
10Bet
1.05
William Hil
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lazio over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
48.8%
@ 2.19+6.2%
Under
51.2%
@ 1.62-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.27
1xBet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.25
Betano
2.25
Superbet
2.17
Under
10Bet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.65
Superbet
1.62
Unibet
1.62
Betano
1.60
Lazio over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.8%
@ 7.07-0.3%
Under
87.2%
@ 1.07+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.90
1xBet
7.90
Superbet
6.90
Unibet
6.75
Betano
6.70
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Unibet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Lazio over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 18.25-2.5%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.01+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
24.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Genoa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
36.8%
@ 2.69+2.2%
Under
63.2%
@ 1.42-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.81
1xBet
2.72
Marathonbet
2.72
Betano
2.67
Superbet
2.65
Under
10Bet
1.45
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
Superbet
1.42
Unibet
1.41
Genoa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.9%
@ 10.20-1.2%
Under
92.1%
@ 1.02+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.25
1xBet
11.20
Unibet
10.00
Superbet
9.80
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
Genoa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.1%
@ 40.00-98.9%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
40.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lazio
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.53
0.87
0.60
0.67
0.47
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.46
0.43
0.57
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (14)
1.07
0.43
1.43
0.57
0.71
0.29
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Genoa) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Genoa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.70
0.93
0.87
0.60
0.53
vs Stronger (15)
0.60
0.93
0.75
1.12
0.43
0.71
vs Similar (15)
0.93
0.47
1.14
0.57
0.75
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Lazio) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
77.7%
@ 1.35+8.1%
Under 0.5
22.3%
@ 3.08-8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.37
Betano
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
William Hil
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Under
Bet365
3.25
Unibet
3.15
Betano
3.10
Marathonbet
3.10
1xBet
3.10
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
41.5%
@ 2.60+5.5%
Under 1.5
58.5%
@ 1.46-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.67
Marathonbet
2.65
1xBet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.60
Under
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.48
1xBet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
Unibet
1.45
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.6%
@ 6.24+0.6%
Under 2.5
84.4%
@ 1.10-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
6.60
William Hil
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.35
1xBet
6.35
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.10
10Bet
1.09
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lazio over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
59.7%
@ 1.85+9.7%
Under
40.3%
@ 1.85-9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.87
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
Under
Betano
1.88
Marathonbet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Superbet
1.83
Lazio over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
20.9%
@ 5.28+3.4%
Under
79.1%
@ 1.12-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.45
1xBet
5.45
Superbet
5.35
10Bet
5.25
Betano
4.90
Under
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Lazio over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.3%
@ 13.88-2.5%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.02+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Genoa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
46.7%
@ 2.16+3.8%
Under
53.3%
@ 1.62-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.19
1xBet
2.19
Superbet
2.17
Betano
2.10
Under
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Genoa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.2%
@ 7.22-0.7%
Under
87.8%
@ 1.07+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.80
Marathonbet
7.80
Superbet
7.00
Betano
6.30
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Genoa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 19.25-3.0%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Unibet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.1%
1.02
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.2%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.05
10Bet
1.05
William Hil
1.05
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
90.8%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
90.7%
1.05
Betano
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
10Bet
1.05
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
88.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
-
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.8%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
-
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.2%
1.07
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Unibet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
85.4%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
-0.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.4%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.10
10Bet
1.09
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
82.7%
1.17
Superbet
1.22
Unibet
1.19
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
80.6%
1.15
Unibet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.13
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.1%
1.12
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
-3.4%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
79.0%
1.31
Betano
1.36
Unibet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Superbet
1.21
-
+8.3%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.7%
1.35
Superbet
1.37
Betano
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
William Hil
1.36
1xBet
1.36
+8.1%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
75.3%
1.28
Superbet
1.31
Unibet
1.28
Betano
1.25
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.7%
1.17
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
-6.0%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
73.5%
1.31
Superbet
1.35
Unibet
1.33
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.5%
1.49
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.52
BetVictor
1.50
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
+10.0%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
73.1%
1.33
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
71.3%
1.26
1xBet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
-3.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
71.2%
1.29
Marathonbet
1.33
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Superbet
1.31
BetVictor
1.29
-1.9%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
71.2%
1.28
Marathonbet
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.26
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
71.1%
1.27
Pinnacle
1.32
William Hil
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Unibet
1.28
-2.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lazio
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Davide Frattesi67%
Alfonso Pedraza0%
Boulaye Dia0%
Christos Mandas0%
Nicolò Rovella0%
Mattia Zaccagni0%
Danilho Doekhi0%
Kenneth Taylor0%
Matteo Cancellieri0%
Oliver Provstgaard0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Matteo Cancellieri67%
Boulaye Dia33%
Nicolò Rovella33%
Mattia Zaccagni33%
Oliver Provstgaard33%
Alfonso Pedraza0%
Christos Mandas0%
Davide Frattesi0%
Danilho Doekhi0%
Kenneth Taylor0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Boulaye Dia33%
Alfonso Pedraza0%
Christos Mandas0%
Nicolò Rovella0%
Mattia Zaccagni0%
Davide Frattesi0%
Danilho Doekhi0%
Kenneth Taylor0%
Matteo Cancellieri0%
Oliver Provstgaard0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kenneth Taylor33%
Matteo Cancellieri33%
Alfonso Pedraza0%
Boulaye Dia0%
Christos Mandas0%
Nicolò Rovella0%
Mattia Zaccagni0%
Davide Frattesi0%
Danilho Doekhi0%
Oliver Provstgaard0%
Genoa
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lorenzo Colombo33%
Alessandro Marcandalli33%
Tommaso Baldanzi33%
Morten Frendrup0%
Leo Østigård0%
Johan Vásquez0%
Justin Bijlow0%
Mikael Ellertsson0%
Vitinha0%
Brooke Norton-Cuffy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Leo Østigård67%
Morten Frendrup0%
Johan Vásquez0%
Justin Bijlow0%
Mikael Ellertsson0%
Lorenzo Colombo0%
Vitinha0%
Alessandro Marcandalli0%
Brooke Norton-Cuffy0%
Tommaso Baldanzi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Morten Frendrup33%
Brooke Norton-Cuffy33%
Leo Østigård0%
Johan Vásquez0%
Justin Bijlow0%
Mikael Ellertsson0%
Lorenzo Colombo0%
Vitinha0%
Alessandro Marcandalli0%
Tommaso Baldanzi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Vitinha67%
Tommaso Baldanzi33%
Morten Frendrup0%
Leo Østigård0%
Johan Vásquez0%
Justin Bijlow0%
Mikael Ellertsson0%
Lorenzo Colombo0%
Alessandro Marcandalli0%
Brooke Norton-Cuffy0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
COM (34)
€488m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
PAR (28)
€142m
CAG (31)
€134m
VEN (36)
€117m
FRO (33)
€84m
LEC (31)
€72m
MON (29)
€70m
Lazio's squad is €58m more valuable than Genoa's (€240m vs €182m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COM (13)
€261m
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
VEN (9)
€39m
PAR (8)
€35m
FRO (8)
€34m
MON (11)
€26m
LEC (9)
€20m
Lazio's attack is €6m more valuable than Genoa's (€60m vs €54m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
COM (7)
€83m
PAR (8)
€60m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
VEN (11)
€31m
CAG (9)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
MON (7)
€24m
LEC (8)
€16m
Lazio's midfield is €42m more valuable than Genoa's (€86m vs €44m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
COM (14)
€144m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
VEN (16)
€47m
PAR (12)
€46m
LEC (14)
€37m
FRO (14)
€24m
MON (11)
€20m
Lazio's defence is €10m more valuable than Genoa's (€93m vs €84m).
Italy: Serie A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
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AS Roma
Inter
AC Milan
Juventus
Atalanta
Udinese
Como
Frosinone
Napoli
Sassuolo
Cagliari
Lecce
Torino
Bologna
Parma
Monza
Venezia
Fiorentina