This opponent (Inter) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inter
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
0.70
2.38
0.75
1.79
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.62
0.88
2.33
1.67
1.20
0.40
vs Weaker (22)
2.27
0.64
2.38
0.54
2.11
0.78
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Lazio) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.9%
Under 1.5
20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.8%
@ 1.67-1.2%
Under 2.5
44.2%
@ 2.21+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.4%
Under 3.5
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.6%
No
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
1-2
9.5%
0-1
8.1%
0-2
7.8%
2-1
6.8%
0-0
6.5%
2-2
5.8%
1-0
5.5%
Lazio goals ↓
Inter goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
8.1%
7.8%
4.4%
1.9%
1
5.5%
12%
9.5%
5.4%
2.3%
2
4.0%
6.8%
5.8%
3.3%
1.4%
3
1.6%
2.8%
2.3%
1.3%
0.6%
4
0.5%
0.8%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lazio goals (down), columns = Inter goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Napoli
2.37
Lazio
1.95
Inter
1.89
Juventus
1.89
AC Milan
1.84
Atalanta
1.68
AS Roma
1.66
Fiorentina
1.47
Bologna
1.42
Torino
1.39
Monza
1.37
Udinese
1.21
Sassuolo
1.18
Empoli
1.13
Salernitana
1.11
Lecce
0.95
Hellas Verona
0.87
Spezia
0.79
Cremonese
0.71
Sampdoria
0.50
Lazio is 0.05 points better than Inter in terms of average points per game (1.95 vs 1.89).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Napoli
2.03
Inter
1.87
Atalanta
1.74
AC Milan
1.68
Lazio
1.58
Juventus
1.47
Fiorentina
1.39
Bologna
1.39
AS Roma
1.32
Salernitana
1.26
Monza
1.26
Udinese
1.24
Sassuolo
1.24
Torino
1.11
Empoli
0.97
Cremonese
0.95
Hellas Verona
0.87
Lecce
0.87
Spezia
0.82
Sampdoria
0.63
Lazio is 0.29 goals worse than Inter in terms of goals scored per game (1.58 vs 1.87).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Napoli
0.74
Lazio
0.79
Juventus
0.87
AS Roma
1.00
Torino
1.08
Inter
1.11
Fiorentina
1.13
AC Milan
1.13
Lecce
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Atalanta
1.26
Bologna
1.29
Empoli
1.29
Monza
1.37
Hellas Verona
1.54
Sassuolo
1.61
Salernitana
1.63
Spezia
1.67
Cremonese
1.82
Sampdoria
1.87
Lazio is 0.32 goals better than Inter in terms of goals conceded per game (0.79 vs 1.11).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lazio
For 5.8 · Against 3.9 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 13.0 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Inter
For 7.3 · Against 3.3 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 10.6 · Total 22.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lazio
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.4
8.6
8.2
5.1
4.8
5.4
24.1
23.5
24.6
vs Stronger (4)
7.8
7.5
8.0
6.2
7.0
5.5
26.2
25.5
27.0
vs Similar (20)
7.5
8.1
7.0
5.5
4.1
6.6
24.6
25.2
24.2
vs Weaker (26)
9.3
9.1
9.5
4.6
4.9
4.2
23.3
22.3
24.5
% over line
31%
42%
21%
74%
64%
84%
75%
71%
79%
% under line
69%
58%
79%
26%
36%
16%
25%
29%
21%
This opponent (Inter) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inter
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.6
10.2
3.9
3.4
4.5
23.4
23.4
23.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
8.8
9.5
8.3
5.5
5.7
5.4
24.8
26.5
23.4
vs Weaker (37)
10.3
9.6
11.1
3.4
2.8
4.1
22.8
22.4
23.3
% over line
56%
56%
57%
44%
35%
54%
60%
64%
57%
% under line
44%
44%
43%
56%
65%
46%
40%
36%
43%
This opponent (Lazio) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Empoli
10.8
Salernitana
10.4
Udinese
10.2
Monza
10.2
Sassuolo
10.1
AS Roma
10.0
Inter
9.8
Cremonese
9.6
Sampdoria
9.6
Juventus
9.6
AC Milan
9.5
Lecce
9.5
Hellas Verona
9.5
Bologna
9.4
Torino
9.3
Atalanta
9.2
Spezia
9.2
Napoli
9.0
Lazio
8.6
Fiorentina
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
AS Roma
5.8
Fiorentina
5.5
Lazio
5.3
Lecce
5.3
Cremonese
5.3
Salernitana
5.1
Monza
5.1
Torino
5.0
Udinese
4.9
Hellas Verona
4.9
Bologna
4.9
Atalanta
4.8
Napoli
4.7
Juventus
4.7
Sassuolo
4.6
Spezia
4.6
Empoli
4.5
AC Milan
4.5
Sampdoria
4.4
Inter
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Monza
31.3
Torino
30.1
Lecce
30.0
Cremonese
29.4
Hellas Verona
28.7
Salernitana
28.1
Udinese
27.8
Fiorentina
27.7
Juventus
27.3
Spezia
26.9
Sampdoria
26.9
Atalanta
26.6
Empoli
26.5
Bologna
26.1
AS Roma
26.0
Napoli
26.0
Sassuolo
25.9
AC Milan
25.7
Lazio
24.3
Inter
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
48.3%
Under 9.5
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
69.2%
Under 3.5
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
71.5%
Under 21.5
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lazio
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.77
0.73
0.60
1.00
0.93
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.73
0.50
0.17
0.40
1.40
vs Weaker (16)
1.25
0.69
1.00
0.88
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inter
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.37
1.06
0.44
1.00
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.25
0.38
1.67
0.33
1.00
0.40
vs Weaker (22)
0.95
0.36
0.92
0.46
1.00
0.22
Clean sheet %
70% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Lazio) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lazio over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lazio over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lazio over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lazio
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.63
1.20
0.73
1.00
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (11)
0.91
0.82
1.00
0.83
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (16)
1.31
0.50
1.50
0.62
1.12
0.38
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inter
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.33
1.31
0.31
0.79
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.50
0.67
1.33
0.20
0.00
vs Weaker (22)
1.32
0.27
1.46
0.08
1.11
0.56
Clean sheet %
70% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Lazio) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lazio over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lazio over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lazio over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lazio
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ciro Immobile32%
Mattia Zaccagni23%
Felipe Anderson23%
Sergej Milinković-Savić20%
Luis Alberto17%
Pedro16%
Luka Romero9%
Matías Vecino7%
Marcos Antônio5%
Alessio Romagnoli5%
Toma Bašić3%
Nicolò Casale3%
Elseid Hysaj2%
Luís Maximiano0%
Patric0%
Adam Marušić0%
Ştefan Radu0%
Danilo Cataldi0%
Luca Pellegrini0%
Manuel Lazzari0%
Ivan Provedel0%
Mario Gila Fuentes0%
Matteo Cancellieri0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luca Pellegrini50%
Ştefan Radu33%
Manuel Lazzari29%
Sergej Milinković-Savić27%
Mattia Zaccagni26%
Adam Marušić21%
Alessio Romagnoli20%
Nicolò Casale20%
Matías Vecino19%
Matteo Cancellieri17%
Danilo Cataldi16%
Ciro Immobile14%
Patric12%
Marcos Antônio10%
Elseid Hysaj10%
Luka Romero9%
Felipe Anderson8%
Mario Gila Fuentes8%
Luis Alberto7%
Toma Bašić6%
Pedro5%
Ivan Provedel4%
Luís Maximiano0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Luis Alberto19%
Ciro Immobile19%
Mattia Zaccagni19%
Sergej Milinković-Savić16%
Felipe Anderson10%
Pedro7%
Marcos Antônio5%
Adam Marušić5%
Nicolò Casale3%
Danilo Cataldi3%
Matías Vecino2%
Elseid Hysaj2%
Toma Bašić0%
Luís Maximiano0%
Alessio Romagnoli0%
Patric0%
Ştefan Radu0%
Luca Pellegrini0%
Manuel Lazzari0%
Ivan Provedel0%
Mario Gila Fuentes0%
Luka Romero0%
Matteo Cancellieri0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ciro Immobile35%
Sergej Milinković-Savić22%
Mattia Zaccagni12%
Felipe Anderson10%
Matías Vecino5%
Luis Alberto2%
Pedro2%
Elseid Hysaj0%
Marcos Antônio0%
Toma Bašić0%
Luís Maximiano0%
Alessio Romagnoli0%
Patric0%
Adam Marušić0%
Ştefan Radu0%
Danilo Cataldi0%
Luca Pellegrini0%
Manuel Lazzari0%
Ivan Provedel0%
Nicolò Casale0%
Mario Gila Fuentes0%
Luka Romero0%
Matteo Cancellieri0%
Inter
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lautaro Martínez39%
Romelu Lukaku33%
Edin Džeko20%
Nicolò Barella19%
Joaquín Correa11%
Henrikh Mkhitaryan11%
Robin Gosens9%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu9%
Marcelo Brozović8%
Federico Dimarco7%
Denzel Dumfries4%
Stefan de Vrij3%
Matteo Darmian2%
Samir Handanovič0%
Danilo D'Ambrosio0%
Milan Škriniar0%
Roberto Gagliardini0%
André Onana0%
Francesco Acerbi0%
Alessandro Bastoni0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Kristjan Asllani0%
Valentín Carboni0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcelo Brozović27%
Roberto Gagliardini20%
Nicolò Barella19%
Valentín Carboni17%
Stefan de Vrij15%
Danilo D'Ambrosio14%
Milan Škriniar14%
Henrikh Mkhitaryan14%
Alessandro Bastoni12%
Lautaro Martínez12%
Francesco Acerbi12%
Matteo Darmian10%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu9%
Denzel Dumfries9%
Edin Džeko9%
André Onana8%
Kristjan Asllani8%
Robin Gosens7%
Romelu Lukaku6%
Federico Dimarco5%
Joaquín Correa3%
Samir Handanovič0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Romelu Lukaku18%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu18%
Lautaro Martínez18%
Federico Dimarco16%
Nicolò Barella13%
Alessandro Bastoni12%
Marcelo Brozović11%
Danilo D'Ambrosio10%
Denzel Dumfries9%
Edin Džeko9%
Joaquín Correa9%
Matteo Darmian5%
Francesco Acerbi5%
Henrikh Mkhitaryan5%
Samir Handanovič0%
Stefan de Vrij0%
Milan Škriniar0%
Roberto Gagliardini0%
André Onana0%
Robin Gosens0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Kristjan Asllani0%
Valentín Carboni0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Lautaro Martínez41%
Romelu Lukaku24%
Edin Džeko20%
Nicolò Barella9%
Roberto Gagliardini8%
Federico Dimarco7%
Henrikh Mkhitaryan5%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu4%
Denzel Dumfries4%
Stefan de Vrij3%
Joaquín Correa3%
Alessandro Bastoni2%
Robin Gosens2%
Samir Handanovič0%
Danilo D'Ambrosio0%
Milan Škriniar0%
Marcelo Brozović0%
André Onana0%
Matteo Darmian0%
Francesco Acerbi0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Kristjan Asllani0%
Valentín Carboni0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
LEC (31)
€72m
MON (29)
€70m
HV (34)
€57m
CRE (30)
€49m
SAM (27)
€37m
EMP (27)
€20m
SPE (34)
€11m
Lazio's squad is €454m less valuable than Inter's (€240m vs €694m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
MON (11)
€26m
LEC (9)
€20m
SAM (7)
€14m
HV (10)
€13m
CRE (7)
€12m
EMP (9)
€11m
SPE (10)
€3m
Lazio's attack is €160m less valuable than Inter's (€60m vs €220m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
MON (7)
€24m
LEC (8)
€16m
CRE (10)
€15m
HV (9)
€14m
SAM (6)
€7m
EMP (9)
€6m
SPE (11)
€4m
Lazio's midfield is €146m less valuable than Inter's (€86m vs €232m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
LEC (14)
€37m
HV (15)
€30m
CRE (13)
€22m
MON (11)
€20m
SAM (14)
€17m
EMP (9)
€4m
SPE (13)
€4m
Lazio's defence is €149m less valuable than Inter's (€93m vs €242m).
Italy: Serie A 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
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Napoli
Juventus
AC Milan
Atalanta
AS Roma
Fiorentina
Bologna
Torino
Monza
Udinese
Sassuolo
Empoli
Salernitana
Lecce
Hellas Verona
Spezia
Cremonese
Sampdoria