AEK Athens FC is the favourite to win this match, with the model predicting an away win. The overall shape of the match is expected to be closely contested, with both teams creating scoring opportunities. The expected total number of goals is 2.7, with the most likely total number of goals being 2.
The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 13.2%. AEK Athens FC has a strong away form, scoring an average of 2.5 goals and conceding just 0.62 goals against weaker opponents.
In terms of the team's form, Levski Sofia is on a 4-game winning run, while AEK Athens FC is unbeaten in their last 5 matches. The model's selection for this match is the away win, with a 45% probability.
The model's suggested picks include the over 1.5 goals, with a 76.1% probability and a 7% edge, and the under 3.5 goals, with a 71.7% probability. The home win percentage is 27%, the draw percentage is 28%, and the away win percentage is 45%.
Results analysis
The unexpected 0-0 draw shocked the pre-match favourite, AEK Athens FC, who had been tipped to win with a 45 % probability. The model’s call was wrong. Levski Sofia’s unbeaten run of five games, highlighted by a 6-0 win over Spartak Varna, kept them competitive, while AEK’s five-game unbeaten streak, including a 4-0 victory over Iraklis 1908, suggested a likely triumph. The final score of 0-0 confirmed a draw, the most common outcome in the model’s distribution. Every suggested pick settled: Home under 3.5 goals hit at 97 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 93 %, Home under 2.5 goals hit at 89 %, Away +2 handicap hit at 88.7 %, Away under 2.5 goals hit at 79.9 %, Away over 0.5 goals missed at 78.5 %, and Home +2 handicap hit at 76.7 %.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Levski Sofia win✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied 28.9% · @ 3.24
Edge
-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.45
1xBet
3.44
Marathonbet
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
William Hil
3.30
Draw✓ Hit
27.7%
Avg Implied 30.9% · @ 3.03
Edge
-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.20
BetVictor
3.20
Betano
3.15
1xBet
3.11
Superbet
3.10
AEK Athens FC win✗ Miss
45.0%
Avg Implied 40.2% · @ 2.33
Edge
+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.55
1xBet
2.41
Unibet
2.38
Pinnacle
2.38
Betano
2.35
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Levski Sofia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
0.70
2.25
0.44
1.36
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.11
0.89
1.00
0.33
1.17
1.17
vs Weaker (21)
2.14
0.62
2.54
0.46
1.50
0.88
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Athens FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Athens FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
0.80
2.19
0.75
1.86
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.62
0.85
2.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
2.35
0.76
2.10
0.80
2.71
0.71
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Levski Sofia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
76.1%
@ 1.43+10.9%
Under 1.5
23.9%
@ 2.68-10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Unibet
1.45
Superbet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.86
Superbet
2.80
Betano
2.77
Betfair
2.75
888Sport
2.70
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.3%
@ 2.36+10.3%
Under 2.5
49.7%
@ 1.57-10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.46
Unibet
2.43
Pinnacle
2.43
Superbet
2.40
Betano
2.40
Under
SBO
1.64
1xBet
1.62
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.58
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.3%
@ 4.46+7.4%
Under 3.5
71.7%
@ 1.18-7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.80
BetVictor
4.60
Pinnacle
4.57
Unibet
4.50
Superbet
4.50
Under
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.9%
@ 1.97+7.7%
No
45.1%
@ 1.76-7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
2.10
Unibet
2.02
Superbet
2.02
Betano
1.98
1xBet
1.97
No
888Sport
1.83
William Hil
1.83
Betfair
1.80
Superbet
1.78
Betano
1.78
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%@ 5.45+5.1%
0-1
9.3%@ 5.96+1.9%
1-2
9.2%@ 8.59+4.1%
0-2
8.0%@ 9.36+3.3%
0-0 ✓
8.0%@ 6.99+1.7%
2-1
6.9%@ 10.67+2.8%
1-0
6.6%@ 7.44+0.7%
2-2
5.3%@ 14.86+2.4%
Levski Sofia goals ↓
AEK Athens FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
9.3%
8.0%
4.1%
1.6%
1
6.6%
13%
9.2%
4.7%
1.8%
2
4.5%
6.9%
5.3%
2.7%
1.0%
3
1.7%
2.7%
2.0%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.5%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Levski Sofia goals (down), columns = AEK Athens FC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
European competition: teams are ranked by a cross-league strength score - each side's domestic attack and defence made comparable via the model's fitted league strengths (stronger leagues weighted up). Each side's actual domestic figures are shown below.
🏆 Cross-league strength
0-100 · adjusted for league strength · 67 teams
Arsenal
100
Manchester City
97
Bayern München
90
Manchester United
90
Liverpool
87
Barcelona
86
Aston Villa
86
Inter
84
Real Madrid
84
Borussia Dortmund
82
Como
82
Paris Saint Germain
81
AS Roma
80
Sporting CP
79
FC Porto
79
Villarreal
78
Napoli
77
VfB Stuttgart
76
Atletico Madrid
76
Lens
76
RB Leipzig
76
Real Betis
74
Lille
71
Lyon
70
Union St. Gilloise
70
Bodo/Glimt
68
Club Brugge KV
67
PSV Eindhoven
66
Galatasaray
64
Olympiakos Piraeus
63
Aarhus
62
Viking
62
Slavia Praha
62
Fenerbahçe
60
AEK Athens FC
60
Feyenoord
60
NEC Nijmegen
58
Omonia Nicosia
56
Dinamo Zagreb
55
Lech Poznan
53
Gornik Zabrze
52
Levski Sofia
52
Shakhtar Donetsk
49
FC Thun
47
Sabah FA
46
Sparta Praha
45
Hapoel Beer Sheva
45
Heart Of Midlothian
44
FK Crvena Zvezda
43
Sturm Graz
43
Universitatea Craiova
42
Celtic
42
Lask Linz
41
Mjallby AIF
41
Celje
38
Slovan Bratislava
30
Kairat Almaty
30
Vikingur Reykjavik
30
Shamrock Rovers
22
KuPS
22
Saburtalo
20
Ararat-Armenia
19
Kauno Žalgiris
17
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
12
Larne
11
KI Klaksvik
2
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0
Levski Sofia is 8 pts weaker cross-league than AEK Athens FC(52 vs 60 · ranks #42 vs #35 of 67).
Levski Sofia 3.00 (Bulgaria: First League) · AEK Athens FC 2.29 (Greece: Super League 1). Domestic-league average points per game; different leagues, so not a like-for-like verdict.
Levski Sofia 3.00 (Bulgaria: First League) · AEK Athens FC 1.76 (Greece: Super League 1). Domestic-league goals scored per game; different leagues, so not a like-for-like verdict.
Levski Sofia 0.50 (Bulgaria: First League) · AEK Athens FC 0.62 (Greece: Super League 1). Domestic-league goals conceded per game; different leagues, so not a like-for-like verdict.
⏱️ Possession
Not compared for European ties.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Levski Sofia
For 6.4 · Against 3.2 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 12.5 · Total 23.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AEK Athens FC
For 6.3 · Against 3.1 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.3 · Against 14.1 · Total 29.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Levski Sofia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.6
10.0
1.9
1.9
2.0
23.2
20.8
25.6
vs Stronger (3)
9.0
11.0
7.0
4.0
5.0
3.5
21.5
24.0
19.0
vs Similar (13)
9.7
9.0
10.0
1.8
1.8
1.7
32.0
33.0
31.5
vs Weaker (34)
9.9
9.6
10.4
1.8
1.7
1.9
21.9
19.1
25.0
% over line
55%
55%
55%
24%
24%
24%
64%
45%
82%
% under line
45%
45%
45%
76%
76%
76%
36%
55%
18%
This opponent (AEK Athens FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Athens FC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.3
9.8
4.9
4.5
5.3
29.2
29.3
29.1
vs Stronger (1)
10.0
-
10.0
5.0
-
5.0
29.0
-
29.0
vs Similar (16)
8.8
7.9
9.6
5.6
5.1
6.1
29.5
31.6
27.4
vs Weaker (33)
9.1
8.5
9.8
4.5
4.3
4.9
29.1
28.1
30.2
% over line
42%
39%
45%
80%
73%
88%
96%
96%
95%
% under line
58%
61%
55%
20%
27%
12%
4%
4%
5%
This opponent (Levski Sofia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sabah FA
13.0
Viking
11.8
PSV Eindhoven
11.2
Larne
11.2
Fenerbahçe
11.0
Slavia Praha
10.8
Bodo/Glimt
10.8
Atletico Madrid
10.8
Celtic
10.8
Barcelona
10.8
Real Madrid
10.6
Club Brugge KV
10.6
Kairat Almaty
10.5
FC Thun
10.4
RB Leipzig
10.3
Lask Linz
10.3
Liverpool
10.3
Manchester City
10.2
Mjallby AIF
10.2
Lens
10.2
Gornik Zabrze
10.2
Lyon
10.2
Feyenoord
10.1
FK Crvena Zvezda
10.1
Ararat-Armenia
10.1
KI Klaksvik
10.1
Slovan Bratislava
10.1
Lech Poznan
10.0
Sporting CP
10.0
VfB Stuttgart
10.0
Heart Of Midlothian
9.9
KuPS
9.9
Omonia Nicosia
9.9
NEC Nijmegen
9.9
Dinamo Zagreb
9.9
Sparta Praha
9.9
Sturm Graz
9.7
Bayern München
9.7
Levski Sofia
9.7
Saburtalo
9.7
Lille
9.7
Aarhus
9.7
Manchester United
9.6
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
9.5
Aston Villa
9.5
Celje
9.4
Union St. Gilloise
9.3
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Inter
9.2
Hapoel Beer Sheva
9.2
Villarreal
9.1
Real Betis
9.1
Galatasaray
9.1
Universitatea Craiova
9.1
Borussia Dortmund
9.0
Arsenal
9.0
FC Porto
8.9
Shakhtar Donetsk
8.9
AEK Athens FC
8.8
AS Roma
8.7
Olympiakos Piraeus
8.6
Vikingur Reykjavik
8.4
Napoli
8.4
Shamrock Rovers
8.3
Lincoln Red Imps FC
8.2
Kauno Žalgiris
8.0
Como
7.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Ararat-Armenia
6.0
Fenerbahçe
5.8
AEK Athens FC
5.6
Sabah FA
5.6
FC Porto
5.4
Hapoel Beer Sheva
5.4
Sporting CP
5.3
Saburtalo
5.3
Universitatea Craiova
5.1
FC Thun
5.0
Slovan Bratislava
5.0
Shamrock Rovers
5.0
Vikingur Reykjavik
4.9
Union St. Gilloise
4.9
Real Madrid
4.9
Sparta Praha
4.9
Lincoln Red Imps FC
4.8
Celje
4.8
Larne
4.8
Real Betis
4.8
Lyon
4.8
Como
4.7
Levski Sofia
4.7
Sturm Graz
4.7
Omonia Nicosia
4.6
Galatasaray
4.6
Heart Of Midlothian
4.5
Slavia Praha
4.5
Lens
4.4
Barcelona
4.4
Olympiakos Piraeus
4.4
KI Klaksvik
4.4
Viking
4.4
Villarreal
4.3
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
4.3
Lille
4.3
Dinamo Zagreb
4.3
AS Roma
4.3
Manchester United
4.2
Kairat Almaty
4.2
Atletico Madrid
4.1
Gornik Zabrze
4.1
NEC Nijmegen
4.1
VfB Stuttgart
4.1
Bayern München
3.9
Aarhus
3.9
Feyenoord
3.9
Lask Linz
3.9
Celtic
3.9
Lech Poznan
3.9
Mjallby AIF
3.8
Shakhtar Donetsk
3.8
Aston Villa
3.8
Manchester City
3.7
FK Crvena Zvezda
3.7
Kauno Žalgiris
3.7
Borussia Dortmund
3.6
Club Brugge KV
3.6
Liverpool
3.5
Arsenal
3.5
Napoli
3.5
RB Leipzig
3.5
PSV Eindhoven
3.5
Inter
3.4
KuPS
3.3
Paris Saint Germain
3.1
Bodo/Glimt
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Saburtalo
46.0
Sabah FA
30.6
AEK Athens FC
29.6
AS Roma
28.3
FC Thun
27.9
Hapoel Beer Sheva
27.8
Sporting CP
26.7
Slavia Praha
26.3
Como
26.3
Kairat Almaty
26.1
FC Porto
25.8
Ararat-Armenia
25.8
Larne
25.6
Lyon
25.5
Fenerbahçe
25.5
Vikingur Reykjavik
25.4
Slovan Bratislava
25.4
Olympiakos Piraeus
25.4
Mjallby AIF
25.3
Lincoln Red Imps FC
25.0
Lens
25.0
Celje
24.9
Universitatea Craiova
24.8
Viking
24.7
Levski Sofia
24.7
Omonia Nicosia
24.6
Villarreal
24.5
Sparta Praha
24.2
Inter
24.1
Real Madrid
24.0
NEC Nijmegen
24.0
Heart Of Midlothian
24.0
Lille
23.9
FK Crvena Zvezda
23.8
Sturm Graz
23.8
Aston Villa
23.7
Real Betis
23.7
Galatasaray
23.7
Lech Poznan
23.7
Aarhus
23.6
Dinamo Zagreb
23.6
Napoli
23.5
Shamrock Rovers
22.7
Gornik Zabrze
22.7
Feyenoord
22.7
VfB Stuttgart
22.6
Borussia Dortmund
22.1
Arsenal
22.1
Kauno Žalgiris
22.0
KuPS
21.9
Manchester United
21.9
Barcelona
21.8
Union St. Gilloise
21.6
Celtic
21.3
Manchester City
21.3
Liverpool
21.0
Lask Linz
20.7
Atletico Madrid
20.7
Club Brugge KV
20.0
RB Leipzig
19.9
Shakhtar Donetsk
19.4
Bodo/Glimt
19.2
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
KI Klaksvik
18.3
Bayern München
18.3
PSV Eindhoven
18.1
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
12.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
54.8%
@ 2.56+18.8%
Under 9.5
45.2%
@ 1.44-18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.60
Betano
2.55
Pinnacle
2.53
1xBet
2.46
Under
Superbet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.49
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.40
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
59.2%
@ 1.64+2.4%
Under 3.5
40.8%
@ 2.16-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.63
Under
Superbet
2.17
Betano
2.15
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
56.4%
@ 1.27-15.2%
Under 21.5
43.6%
@ 3.20+15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.27
Under
1xBet
3.20
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Levski Sofia or Draw✓ Hit
55.0%
Avg Implied 59.2% · @ 1.57
Edge
-4.2%
27%
28%
45%
covers Levski Sofia + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.62
Betano
1.62
Superbet
1.60
SBO
1.60
888Sport
1.57
Levski Sofia or AEK Athens FC✗ Miss
72.3%
Avg Implied 69.6% · @ 1.34
Edge
+2.7%
27%
28%
45%
covers Levski Sofia + AEK Athens FC
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.41
Superbet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.36
William Hil
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Draw or AEK Athens FC✓ Hit
72.7%
Avg Implied 71.2% · @ 1.31
Edge
+1.6%
27%
28%
45%
covers Draw + AEK Athens FC
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Levski Sofia over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
68.4%
@ 1.48+5.4%
Under
31.6%
@ 2.51-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.53
Pinnacle
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Unibet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Under
Pinnacle
2.66
Betfair
2.63
Betano
2.55
Superbet
2.55
BetVictor
2.50
Levski Sofia over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
31.9%
@ 3.33+3.9%
Under
68.1%
@ 1.30-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.56
Bet365
3.50
Marathonbet
3.44
Unibet
3.35
888Sport
3.30
Under
1xBet
1.34
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Levski Sofia over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.0%
@ 8.54+0.0%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.05-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
10.00
1xBet
9.80
Marathonbet
9.80
Betfair
9.50
Superbet
8.40
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Levski Sofia over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.0%
@ 20.00-1.8%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.01+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
29.00
Superbet
24.00
Bet365
15.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
AEK Athens FC over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
78.5%
@ 1.32+7.9%
Under
21.5%
@ 3.16-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Unibet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.43
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.25
888Sport
3.20
Superbet
3.15
AEK Athens FC over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
45.5%
@ 2.56+9.0%
Under
54.5%
@ 1.47-9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.64
Betfair
2.63
Unibet
2.63
Marathonbet
2.58
Superbet
2.57
Under
1xBet
1.54
Pinnacle
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
AEK Athens FC over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
20.1%
@ 5.97+4.5%
Under
79.9%
@ 1.10-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.35
1xBet
6.30
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
6.00
888Sport
6.00
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
888Sport
1.10
AEK Athens FC over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.0%
@ 14.00+0.3%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.02-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
19.00
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.50
Bet365
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Levski Sofia, so a minus line means Levski Sofia give that many goals of a start and AEK Athens FC receive them. At -1, Levski Sofia must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Levski Sofia win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Levski Sofia)Actual: AEK Athens FC
Levski Sofia -2
3.5%
@ 22.00-0.7%
Draw -2
7.8%
@ 10.43-1.1%
AEK Athens FC +2
88.7%
@ 1.07+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
26.00
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
19.00
Draw
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
9.30
Away
Superbet
1.09
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
Handicap -1 (Levski Sofia)Actual: AEK Athens FC
Levski Sofia -1
11.3%
@ 7.44-0.6%
Draw -1
15.9%
@ 4.57-3.6%
AEK Athens FC +1
72.7%
@ 1.30+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
8.50
Marathonbet
7.70
10Bet
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Draw
Marathonbet
4.85
Bet365
4.75
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Away
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
Betfair
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Bet365
1.25
Handicap +1 (Levski Sofia)Actual: Levski Sofia
Levski Sofia +1
55.0%
@ 1.56-2.0%
Draw +1
21.7%
@ 3.73-2.3%
AEK Athens FC -1
23.3%
@ 4.69+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.61
10Bet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Unibet
1.54
Draw
Superbet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.84
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.65
Unibet
3.65
Away
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Superbet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.70
Unibet
4.60
Handicap +2 (Levski Sofia)Actual: Levski Sofia
Levski Sofia +2
76.7%
@ 1.14-0.6%
Draw +2
14.0%
@ 6.25-0.2%
AEK Athens FC -2
9.4%
@ 10.35+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Draw
Betfair
7.00
Superbet
6.70
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
6.25
Marathonbet
4.80
Away
Betfair
14.00
Superbet
11.00
Unibet
10.50
Bet365
9.50
Marathonbet
6.75
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Levski Sofia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.23
0.56
0.06
0.57
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (21)
0.52
0.19
0.54
0.08
0.50
0.38
Clean sheet %
80% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Athens FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Athens FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.40
0.69
0.38
0.79
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.31
0.67
0.17
0.43
0.43
vs Weaker (17)
0.88
0.47
0.70
0.50
1.14
0.43
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Levski Sofia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Levski Sofia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Levski Sofia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Levski Sofia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Levski Sofia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.47
1.69
0.38
0.79
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.44
0.56
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (21)
1.62
0.43
2.00
0.38
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Athens FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
AEK Athens FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.40
1.50
0.38
1.07
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.08
0.54
1.67
0.50
0.57
0.57
vs Weaker (17)
1.47
0.29
1.40
0.30
1.57
0.29
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Levski Sofia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Levski Sofia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Levski Sofia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Levski Sofia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 3.5 goals
97.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
-
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
93.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
89.0%
1.05
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
-0.0%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
88.7%
1.07
Superbet
1.09
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
-
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
79.9%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
888Sport
1.10
-4.5%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
78.5%
1.32
Betano
1.34
Unibet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
+7.9%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
78.1%
1.25
Superbet
1.25
-
-
-
-
+5.0%
-
Home +2 handicap
76.7%
1.14
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
76.4%
1.27
Superbet
1.27
-
-
-
-
+4.5%
-
Over 1.5
76.1%
1.43
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.45
Unibet
1.45
Superbet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.44
+10.9%
✗ Miss
Draw or Away
72.7%
1.31
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
72.7%
1.30
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
Betfair
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Bet365
1.25
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.3%
1.34
1xBet
1.41
Superbet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.36
William Hil
1.36
888Sport
1.36
+2.7%
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
71.7%
1.18
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-7.4%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Levski Sofia
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Reinaldo33%
Álex Centelles0%
Armstrong Oko-Flex0%
Kristian Dimitrov0%
Svetoslav Vutsov0%
Mazire Soula0%
Nikola Serafimov0%
Everton Bala0%
El Mehdi Moubarik0%
Serginho0%
Aldair0%
Asen Ivanov Mitkov0%
Juan Perea0%
Maicon0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nikola Serafimov33%
Everton Bala33%
Aldair33%
Juan Perea33%
Álex Centelles0%
Armstrong Oko-Flex0%
Reinaldo0%
Kristian Dimitrov0%
Svetoslav Vutsov0%
Mazire Soula0%
El Mehdi Moubarik0%
Serginho0%
Asen Ivanov Mitkov0%
Maicon0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Everton Bala33%
Álex Centelles0%
Armstrong Oko-Flex0%
Reinaldo0%
Kristian Dimitrov0%
Svetoslav Vutsov0%
Mazire Soula0%
Nikola Serafimov0%
El Mehdi Moubarik0%
Serginho0%
Aldair0%
Asen Ivanov Mitkov0%
Juan Perea0%
Maicon0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Reinaldo33%
Álex Centelles0%
Armstrong Oko-Flex0%
Kristian Dimitrov0%
Svetoslav Vutsov0%
Mazire Soula0%
Nikola Serafimov0%
Everton Bala0%
El Mehdi Moubarik0%
Serginho0%
Aldair0%
Asen Ivanov Mitkov0%
Juan Perea0%
Maicon0%
AEK Athens FC · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luka Jović33%
Barnabás Varga25%
Aboubakary Koita21%
Zini17%
Dereck Kutesa15%
Robert Ljubičić14%
Frantzdy Pierrot14%
Răzvan Marin14%
Orbelín Pineda12%
Petros Mantalos9%
Harold Moukoudi9%
Mijat Gaćinović8%
João Mário8%
Niclas Eliasson8%
Dimitrios Kaloskamis7%
Marko Grujić6%
Domagoj Vida6%
Filipe Relvas2%
Thomas Strakosha0%
Roberto Pereyra0%
Stavros Pilios0%
James Penrice0%
Lazaros Rota0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Domagoj Vida33%
Lazaros Rota27%
James Penrice26%
Filipe Relvas25%
Mijat Gaćinović24%
Petros Mantalos21%
Luka Jović21%
Barnabás Varga20%
Aboubakary Koita19%
Orbelín Pineda19%
Răzvan Marin16%
Frantzdy Pierrot14%
Harold Moukoudi14%
Stavros Pilios14%
Roberto Pereyra12%
Dereck Kutesa11%
Thomas Strakosha10%
Robert Ljubičić10%
João Mário8%
Marko Grujić6%
Zini4%
Niclas Eliasson4%
Dimitrios Kaloskamis0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Robert Ljubičić24%
Niclas Eliasson23%
Lazaros Rota20%
Răzvan Marin19%
Petros Mantalos12%
Stavros Pilios11%
Dereck Kutesa11%
Barnabás Varga10%
Orbelín Pineda9%
Frantzdy Pierrot7%
Dimitrios Kaloskamis7%
Mijat Gaćinović4%
João Mário4%
Luka Jović3%
Aboubakary Koita2%
Thomas Strakosha0%
Domagoj Vida0%
Roberto Pereyra0%
Harold Moukoudi0%
Marko Grujić0%
James Penrice0%
Filipe Relvas0%
Zini0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luka Jović33%
Frantzdy Pierrot29%
Barnabás Varga20%
Domagoj Vida17%
Dimitrios Kaloskamis13%
Zini9%
Mijat Gaćinović8%
Aboubakary Koita7%
Orbelín Pineda7%
Petros Mantalos6%
Harold Moukoudi6%
Stavros Pilios6%
Filipe Relvas5%
Robert Ljubičić5%
Răzvan Marin5%
João Mário0%
Thomas Strakosha0%
Roberto Pereyra0%
Niclas Eliasson0%
Marko Grujić0%
James Penrice0%
Dereck Kutesa0%
Lazaros Rota0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
RM (27)
€1456m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
BAR (30)
€1282m
BM (29)
€1076m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
INT (25)
€694m
AM (25)
€653m
AVL (27)
€536m
BD (29)
€529m
RL (31)
€506m
COM (34)
€488m
AR (29)
€471m
FP (30)
€467m
NAP (33)
€459m
VS (54)
€430m
SC (31)
€414m
GAL (29)
€345m
FEN (39)
€332m
VIL (24)
€325m
LIL (27)
€312m
LYO (32)
€293m
PE (29)
€280m
RB (25)
€235m
FEY (30)
€229m
CBK (27)
€196m
LEN (27)
€187m
SD (33)
€186m
OP (29)
€175m
SP (38)
€123m
CEL (27)
€116m
FCZ (32)
€115m
USG (26)
€98m
SP (35)
€92m
AAF (26)
€85m
BOD (24)
€75m
DZ (34)
€66m
LP (25)
€58m
NN (29)
€54m
SG (26)
€52m
VIK (27)
€47m
LL (22)
€44m
LS (27)
€38m
UC (25)
€37m
AAR (28)
€36m
SB (28)
€35m
GZ (27)
€29m
MA (24)
€26m
HOM (30)
€22m
HBS (26)
€20m
SF (24)
€17m
FT (25)
€17m
ON (23)
€15m
CEL (31)
€14m
KŽ (27)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
ARA (26)
€8m
KUP (30)
€7m
SR (31)
€7m
ER (24)
€7m
SAB (22)
€6m
VR (26)
€5m
LAR (23)
€4m
KK (28)
€3m
LRI (25)
€2m
Levski Sofia's squad is €47m less valuable than AEK Athens FC's (€38m vs €85m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
PSG (10)
€638m
MC (9)
€635m
ARS (13)
€608m
BAR (10)
€590m
BM (10)
€554m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
AM (9)
€290m
COM (13)
€261m
AVL (10)
€220m
INT (5)
€220m
FP (11)
€214m
RL (12)
€212m
NAP (12)
€206m
VS (19)
€193m
GAL (9)
€173m
BD (8)
€170m
FEN (14)
€162m
SC (9)
€146m
AR (6)
€138m
LIL (13)
€133m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
LYO (9)
€122m
SD (16)
€115m
PE (11)
€106m
FEY (11)
€93m
CBK (10)
€92m
OP (12)
€84m
FCZ (13)
€62m
CEL (11)
€56m
LEN (8)
€52m
AAF (11)
€44m
SP (14)
€43m
DZ (15)
€33m
USG (10)
€32m
SP (10)
€27m
SG (11)
€26m
NN (11)
€22m
BOD (7)
€22m
VIK (10)
€21m
LP (10)
€21m
GZ (13)
€17m
SB (12)
€15m
UC (10)
€14m
AAR (10)
€14m
LL (5)
€13m
HOM (12)
€12m
LS (10)
€11m
HBS (13)
€10m
ON (9)
€7m
CEL (12)
€7m
MA (9)
€7m
SF (7)
€5m
FT (7)
€4m
KŽ (11)
€4m
KA (9)
€4m
SR (14)
€3m
ARA (9)
€3m
VR (12)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
KUP (9)
€2m
ER (6)
€2m
LAR (6)
€1m
KK (9)
€1m
LRI (11)
€1m
Levski Sofia's attack is €32m less valuable than AEK Athens FC's (€11m vs €44m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
BAR (8)
€324m
ARS (4)
€290m
RM (5)
€238m
MU (7)
€236m
INT (10)
€232m
LIV (6)
€201m
BM (6)
€187m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
AM (6)
€155m
BD (7)
€146m
AR (5)
€118m
RL (6)
€109m
FP (6)
€105m
LIL (4)
€102m
NAP (7)
€101m
VS (10)
€92m
SC (9)
€91m
COM (7)
€83m
LYO (8)
€82m
GAL (7)
€72m
FEN (7)
€62m
PE (5)
€60m
VIL (4)
€52m
OP (6)
€47m
FEY (4)
€43m
USG (7)
€38m
SP (8)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
SP (10)
€27m
BOD (7)
€27m
LEN (5)
€24m
CBK (5)
€23m
FCZ (6)
€21m
CEL (5)
€20m
SD (4)
€19m
AAF (5)
€16m
AAR (10)
€14m
SG (4)
€14m
VIK (5)
€12m
LL (6)
€11m
MA (6)
€11m
UC (6)
€10m
LP (3)
€9m
LS (5)
€8m
SB (6)
€7m
GZ (4)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NN (5)
€5m
FT (8)
€5m
HBS (3)
€5m
HOM (6)
€4m
ON (4)
€3m
KUP (9)
€3m
KA (5)
€2m
DZ (2)
€2m
SR (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
KŽ (4)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
ER (5)
€1m
CEL (4)
€1m
KK (8)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
LAR (7)
€1m
LRI (4)
€0m
Levski Sofia's midfield is €8m less valuable than AEK Athens FC's (€8m vs €16m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
ARS (12)
€508m
PSG (11)
€409m
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
BM (13)
€336m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
BD (14)
€214m
AM (10)
€208m
RL (13)
€185m
SC (13)
€176m
AVL (11)
€156m
NAP (14)
€152m
VIL (12)
€148m
FP (13)
€148m
VS (25)
€145m
COM (14)
€144m
PE (13)
€115m
LEN (14)
€112m
FEN (18)
€108m
GAL (13)
€100m
FEY (15)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
CBK (12)
€81m
LIL (10)
€76m
RB (10)
€70m
SP (20)
€61m
SD (13)
€52m
OP (11)
€44m
CEL (11)
€41m
FCZ (13)
€33m
DZ (17)
€30m
LP (12)
€28m
USG (9)
€28m
BOD (10)
€26m
NN (13)
€26m
AAF (10)
€26m
SP (11)
€22m
LL (11)
€20m
LS (12)
€19m
VIK (12)
€15m
UC (9)
€13m
SB (10)
€13m
SG (11)
€13m
MA (9)
€8m
AAR (8)
€8m
FT (10)
€8m
SF (10)
€7m
GZ (10)
€6m
CEL (15)
€6m
HOM (12)
€6m
HBS (10)
€5m
ON (10)
€5m
KŽ (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
ER (13)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
SR (10)
€2m
VR (10)
€2m
LAR (10)
€2m
KK (11)
€1m
LRI (10)
€1m
Levski Sofia's defence is €7m less valuable than AEK Athens FC's (€19m vs €26m).
World: UEFA Champions League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full World: UEFA Champions League stats & trends →
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Hapoel Beer Sheva
Fenerbahçe
Sabah FA
Slovan Bratislava
Bodo/Glimt
Dinamo Zagreb
Celje
FK Crvena Zvezda
Aarhus
Viking
Lyon
Kauno Žalgiris
Shamrock Rovers
Lask Linz
Celtic
Omonia Nicosia
Vikingur Reykjavik
Sturm Graz
Ararat-Armenia
Sparta Praha
Kairat Almaty
Union St. Gilloise
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Olympiakos Piraeus
NEC Nijmegen
FC Thun
Gornik Zabrze
Saburtalo
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Universitatea Craiova
KI Klaksvik
Mjallby AIF
Inter
FC Porto
Lille
Real Madrid
Slavia Praha
Como
Galatasaray
Barcelona
Paris Saint Germain
Feyenoord
Borussia Dortmund
Lens
Aston Villa
PSV Eindhoven
Club Brugge KV
Napoli
RB Leipzig
Shakhtar Donetsk
Villarreal
Real Betis
VfB Stuttgart
Bayern München
Liverpool
Atletico Madrid
Manchester City
Arsenal
Sporting CP
AS Roma
Manchester United
Heart Of Midlothian
KuPS
Lech Poznan
Larne