Liverpool’s recent draw against Newcastle and Nottingham Forest’s back-to-back defeats set the tone for a game that the model sees as a clear home win, with a 60% chance for Liverpool, 23% for a draw and 17% for Forest. The expected total of 3.1 goals points to a lively contest, yet the most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.8% probability. Liverpool’s home form shows they average 3.22 goals scored and only 0.78 conceded against weaker opposition, while Forest, playing away against stronger teams, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. The model’s selections lean heavily on low-scoring outcomes: Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.8%, Under 7.5 at 98.6%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.1%, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.2%, Under 6.5 at 96.1%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 94.5%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.0% and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 91.4%. Each pick carries its own probability, with edges ranging from 1% to 9%.
Results analysis
Liverpool’s pre-match favourite to win fell short as the match ended 2-2, a draw that surprised the model’s 60% confidence in a home victory. The Pythia model’s call was therefore wrong. The match was a tightly contested affair, with both sides scoring twice. The model’s predictions for the game’s total were heavily skewed toward a 2-goal outcome, yet the actual tally reached four. Every suggested pick was a hit: Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.8%, Under 7.5 at 98.6%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.1%, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.2%, Under 6.5 at 96.1%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 94.5%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.0%, and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 91.4%. Both Liverpool and Nottingham Forest entered the game coming off draws, each ending with a 2-2 result.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Liverpool win✗ Miss
59.6%
Avg Implied 62.8% · @ 1.52
Edge
-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.56
Betano
1.55
William Hil
1.53
Pinnacle
1.53
Superbet
1.53
Draw✓ Hit
22.9%
Avg Implied 21.1% · @ 4.53
Edge
+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.70
1xBet
4.68
Pinnacle
4.66
Betano
4.65
Marathonbet
4.60
Nottingham Forest win✗ Miss
17.4%
Avg Implied 16.1% · @ 5.91
Edge
+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.20
1xBet
6.15
Betano
6.10
Betfair
6.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Liverpool
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.33
2.57
0.93
1.38
1.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.17
1.67
1.40
1.20
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (18)
2.44
1.11
3.22
0.78
1.67
1.44
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Nottingham Forest) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nottingham Forest
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.10
0.94
0.75
2.00
1.50
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
0.83
0.33
0.33
2.00
1.33
vs Similar (24)
1.50
1.17
1.08
0.85
2.00
1.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Liverpool) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.8%
@ 1.18+1.7%
Under 1.5
18.2%
@ 4.74-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Unibet
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
Under
BetVictor
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.80
Unibet
4.75
1xBet
4.65
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.8%
@ 1.61-0.4%
Under 2.5
41.2%
@ 2.33+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Unibet
1.62
Under
1xBet
2.41
Pinnacle
2.38
Betfair
2.38
Superbet
2.35
Betano
2.35
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
36.4%
@ 2.48-1.7%
Under 3.5
63.6%
@ 1.52+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.57
Unibet
2.55
Betano
2.52
Superbet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Under
Betano
1.55
Pinnacle
1.55
Superbet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
Betfair
1.53
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.6%
@ 1.70+1.8%
No
43.4%
@ 2.07-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.75
William Hil
1.73
Superbet
1.72
Unibet
1.71
Bet365
1.70
No
Betfair
2.10
Superbet
2.10
BetVictor
2.10
1xBet
2.07
Betano
2.07
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%@ 8.27+5.1%
2-1
10.0%@ 7.81+3.9%
2-0
9.7%@ 7.93+3.8%
1-0
8.6%@ 8.12+2.8%
3-1
6.7%@ 10.91+2.4%
3-0
6.6%@ 10.86+2.2%
0-0
5.7%@ 14.69+2.5%
2-2 ✓
5.1%@ 14.41+1.8%
Liverpool goals ↓
Nottingham Forest goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.7%
3.9%
2.5%
0.8%
0.2%
1
8.6%
11%
5.0%
1.7%
0.4%
2
9.7%
10.0%
5.1%
1.7%
0.4%
3
6.6%
6.7%
3.4%
1.2%
0.3%
4
3.3%
3.4%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Liverpool goals (down), columns = Nottingham Forest goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brighton
1.39
Brentford
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Everton
1.29
Newcastle
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Crystal Palace
1.18
Ipswich
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
Hull
0.98
Coventry
0.97
Liverpool is 0.42 points better than Nottingham Forest in terms of average points per game (1.58 vs 1.16).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Tottenham
1.26
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
Ipswich
1.19
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Hull
0.99
Coventry
0.98
Liverpool is 0.39 goals better than Nottingham Forest in terms of goals scored per game (1.66 vs 1.26).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Everton
1.32
Manchester United
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
Ipswich
1.58
Hull
1.91
Coventry
1.93
Liverpool is 0.05 goals worse than Nottingham Forest in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 1.34).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
Liverpool is 12.7 percentage points better than Nottingham Forest in terms of average possession (59% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Liverpool
For 6.2 · Against 3.6 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 10.6 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nottingham Forest
For 3.9 · Against 4.5 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 11.5 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Liverpool
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
11.0
9.6
3.5
2.9
4.1
21.3
21.2
21.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
8.7
8.9
8.6
4.0
3.1
4.6
23.1
24.0
22.5
vs Weaker (29)
11.3
12.2
10.4
3.2
2.7
3.7
19.9
19.6
20.2
% over line
56%
67%
46%
48%
42%
54%
44%
42%
46%
% under line
44%
33%
54%
52%
58%
46%
56%
58%
54%
This opponent (Nottingham Forest) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nottingham Forest
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.4
10.3
3.5
3.0
4.0
23.5
22.6
24.5
vs Stronger (10)
9.8
9.8
9.8
3.2
3.5
2.8
21.8
24.3
18.0
vs Similar (40)
9.9
9.3
10.4
3.5
2.9
4.2
24.0
22.1
25.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
50%
54%
48%
38%
58%
64%
58%
71%
% under line
48%
50%
46%
52%
62%
42%
36%
42%
29%
This opponent (Liverpool) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.0
Bournemouth
10.6
Fulham
10.5
Hull
10.4
Manchester City
10.3
Liverpool
10.2
Chelsea
10.0
Tottenham
10.0
Ipswich
10.0
Brentford
9.9
Nottingham Forest
9.9
Brighton
9.6
Coventry
9.6
Manchester United
9.6
Leeds
9.5
Aston Villa
9.4
Sunderland
9.2
Everton
9.1
Arsenal
9.0
Crystal Palace
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tottenham
4.5
Bournemouth
4.5
Chelsea
4.4
Newcastle
4.3
Ipswich
4.2
Sunderland
4.2
Hull
4.1
Manchester United
4.1
Brighton
4.0
Aston Villa
3.8
Brentford
3.7
Manchester City
3.7
Crystal Palace
3.7
Everton
3.6
Coventry
3.6
Liverpool
3.6
Fulham
3.6
Leeds
3.5
Arsenal
3.5
Nottingham Forest
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ipswich
23.8
Aston Villa
23.6
Nottingham Forest
23.5
Bournemouth
23.3
Chelsea
22.8
Sunderland
22.7
Tottenham
22.7
Brighton
22.3
Leeds
22.2
Arsenal
22.1
Manchester United
21.7
Newcastle
21.6
Everton
21.5
Coventry
21.3
Liverpool
21.3
Crystal Palace
21.3
Hull
21.0
Manchester City
21.0
Fulham
19.9
Brentford
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
60.9%
@ 1.71+6.5%
Under 9.5
39.1%
@ 2.03-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.75
Superbet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Pinnacle
1.72
Unibet
1.71
Under
Betano
2.12
Pinnacle
2.11
Marathonbet
2.04
1xBet
2.04
Superbet
2.02
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
50.2%
@ 1.82-1.2%
Under 3.5
49.8%
@ 1.92+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.95
Unibet
1.92
Betano
1.88
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Under
Superbet
2.02
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.87
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
52.1%
Under 21.5
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Liverpool or Draw✓ Hit
75.3%
Avg Implied 83.4% · @ 1.14
Edge
-8.1%
60%
23%
17%
covers Liverpool + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.16
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.15
Superbet
1.15
BetVictor
1.14
Liverpool or Nottingham Forest✗ Miss
75.2%
Avg Implied 79.3% · @ 1.19
Edge
-4.0%
60%
23%
17%
covers Liverpool + Nottingham Forest
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.20
Draw or Nottingham Forest✓ Hit
49.5%
Avg Implied 37.4% · @ 2.53
Edge
+12.1%
60%
23%
17%
covers Draw + Nottingham Forest
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
2.62
Unibet
2.60
Betfair
2.60
1xBet
2.58
Betano
2.57
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Liverpool over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
84.4%
@ 1.09-1.4%
Under
15.6%
@ 6.56+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
Under
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
7.00
BetVictor
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Superbet
6.50
Liverpool over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
55.3%
@ 1.50-7.1%
Under
44.7%
@ 2.50+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.53
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.52
1xBet
1.51
Superbet
1.51
Under
Betfair
2.63
Pinnacle
2.57
Marathonbet
2.52
1xBet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Liverpool over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
28.4%
@ 2.58-7.8%
Under
71.6%
@ 1.47+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.68
1xBet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
BetVictor
2.60
Marathonbet
2.60
Under
Betfair
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
Superbet
1.48
Unibet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Liverpool over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
11.8%
@ 5.08-6.6%
Under
88.2%
@ 1.14+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.30
Marathonbet
5.15
Superbet
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Nottingham Forest over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.4%
@ 1.52+9.9%
Under
28.6%
@ 2.43-9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.55
Unibet
1.54
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Under
Pinnacle
2.51
Betfair
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Superbet
2.42
Betano
2.40
Nottingham Forest over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
35.5%
@ 3.53+9.1%
Under
64.5%
@ 1.27-9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.67
Marathonbet
3.65
Unibet
3.65
BetVictor
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Under
1xBet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Nottingham Forest over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.2%
@ 9.76+3.6%
Under
86.8%
@ 1.04-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
10.50
Marathonbet
10.50
Unibet
10.00
Betfair
9.50
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Unibet
1.02
Nottingham Forest over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.8%
@ 22.83-0.4%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.01+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
27.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Liverpool, so a minus line means Liverpool give that many goals of a start and Nottingham Forest receive them. At -1, Liverpool must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Liverpool win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Liverpool)Actual: Nottingham Forest
Liverpool -2
13.4%
@ 4.13-8.6%
Draw -2
15.7%
@ 4.43-4.8%
Nottingham Forest +2
70.9%
@ 1.58+13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.10
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
4.00
Draw
Marathonbet
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.50
Unibet
4.10
Away
Superbet
1.59
Unibet
1.58
Betfair
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Handicap -1 (Liverpool)Actual: Nottingham Forest
Liverpool -1
29.1%
@ 2.26-11.0%
Draw -1
21.4%
@ 3.65-3.3%
Nottingham Forest +1
49.5%
@ 2.56+14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
2.32
Marathonbet
2.31
Bet365
2.25
Unibet
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
Betfair
3.60
Unibet
3.50
Away
Marathonbet
2.62
Betfair
2.60
Unibet
2.55
Superbet
2.55
Bet365
2.50
Handicap +1 (Liverpool)Actual: Liverpool
Liverpool +1
75.3%
@ 1.12-4.3%
Draw +1
14.1%
@ 6.95+1.3%
Nottingham Forest -1
10.6%
@ 11.71+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Draw
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Marathonbet
4.30
Away
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
13.00
Unibet
12.50
Marathonbet
6.35
Handicap +2 (Liverpool)Actual: Liverpool
Liverpool +2
89.4%
@ 1.02-2.7%
Draw +2
7.1%
@ 17.00+1.6%
Nottingham Forest -2
3.5%
@ 40.00+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.02
Draw
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
15.00
Away
Betfair
46.00
Bet365
34.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Liverpool
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.50
1.29
0.21
0.25
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.33
0.67
0.60
0.20
0.14
1.00
vs Weaker (18)
1.00
0.39
1.67
0.22
0.33
0.56
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Nottingham Forest) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nottingham Forest
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.47
0.38
0.25
0.93
0.71
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.33
0.33
0.00
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (24)
0.62
0.50
0.38
0.31
0.91
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Liverpool) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
74.4%
@ 1.29+1.3%
Under 0.5
25.6%
@ 3.52-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Under
Betfair
3.80
Superbet
3.65
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
38.6%
@ 2.33-1.6%
Under 1.5
61.4%
@ 1.57+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.42
Pinnacle
2.41
1xBet
2.39
Marathonbet
2.39
Unibet
2.35
Under
Superbet
1.61
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.57
William Hil
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.0%
@ 5.47-2.2%
Under 2.5
85.0%
@ 1.13+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.00
William Hil
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.45
Under
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Liverpool over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
61.6%
@ 1.53+0.9%
Under
38.4%
@ 2.37-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
Pinnacle
1.54
1xBet
1.54
Superbet
1.52
Unibet
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.49
Unibet
2.38
Superbet
2.37
1xBet
2.32
Betano
2.30
Liverpool over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
20.3%
@ 3.60-5.4%
Under
79.7%
@ 1.25+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.72
Betano
3.65
Marathonbet
3.64
Unibet
3.55
Superbet
3.45
Under
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.24
Unibet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Liverpool over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.5%
@ 9.10-4.7%
Under
94.5%
@ 1.03+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.60
Unibet
9.50
Superbet
8.80
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Unibet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Nottingham Forest over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
39.8%
@ 2.66+4.9%
Under
60.2%
@ 1.43-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.84
Unibet
2.70
Marathonbet
2.62
1xBet
2.62
Betano
2.62
Under
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.43
1xBet
1.43
Nottingham Forest over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.6%
@ 9.80-0.9%
Under
91.4%
@ 1.02+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
10.70
Unibet
10.00
Superbet
9.30
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Unibet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
Nottingham Forest over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 27.00-2.4%
Under
98.8%
@ 1.01+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
40.00
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Liverpool
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.83
1.29
0.71
1.12
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.83
1.00
0.80
1.00
0.86
1.00
vs Weaker (18)
1.44
0.72
1.56
0.56
1.33
0.89
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Nottingham Forest) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nottingham Forest
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.63
0.56
0.50
1.07
0.79
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.33
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (24)
0.88
0.67
0.69
0.54
1.09
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Liverpool) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
81.2%
@ 1.17+0.7%
Under 0.5
18.8%
@ 4.83-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Under
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
1xBet
4.95
Superbet
4.90
Betano
4.75
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
49.5%
@ 1.83-2.2%
Under 1.5
50.5%
@ 1.95+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
William Hil
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Under
Betano
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
1xBet
1.99
Superbet
1.97
William Hil
1.91
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
21.1%
@ 3.53-5.5%
Under 2.5
78.9%
@ 1.28+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.75
Superbet
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Unibet
3.50
Under
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Liverpool over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
67.3%
@ 1.36-0.9%
Under
32.7%
@ 2.92+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.37
1xBet
1.36
Betano
1.36
Under
Betano
3.00
1xBet
2.90
Superbet
2.87
Liverpool over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
25.9%
@ 2.65-9.1%
Under
74.1%
@ 1.43+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.70
1xBet
2.65
Marathonbet
2.65
Betano
2.60
Under
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Liverpool over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.0%
@ 6.27-8.8%
Under
94.0%
@ 1.09+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.60
Superbet
6.40
Betano
5.80
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Nottingham Forest over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
46.2%
@ 2.16+3.3%
Under
53.8%
@ 1.63-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.18
Marathonbet
2.17
Superbet
2.15
Betano
2.15
Under
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.63
1xBet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
Nottingham Forest over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.2%
@ 7.00+2.0%
Under
84.8%
@ 1.06-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.60
1xBet
7.30
Superbet
6.80
Betano
6.30
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Nottingham Forest over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 18.50-2.3%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.02+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
25.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.6%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.5%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Unibet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.0%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
-
-
+8.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.4%
1.02
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Unibet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
90.5%
1.05
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
89.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.02
-
-
-
-2.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
88.2%
1.14
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
86.8%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Unibet
1.02
-3.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.0%
1.13
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.8%
1.06
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
-
-2.0%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
84.4%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
-1.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
83.3%
1.21
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.21
-
-
-
+7.1%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
81.8%
1.18
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Unibet
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.2%
1.17
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
79.7%
1.19
Superbet
1.22
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Unibet
1.19
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
79.7%
1.25
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Marathonbet
1.24
Unibet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.9%
1.28
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
+5.5%
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
75.3%
1.14
1xBet
1.16
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.15
Superbet
1.15
BetVictor
1.14
-8.1%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
75.3%
1.12
Marathonbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
-
-4.3%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.2%
1.19
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.20
-4.0%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.4%
1.29
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
74.1%
1.43
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
Superbet
1.41
-
+9.1%
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
72.6%
1.41
Superbet
1.47
Betfair
1.44
Unibet
1.43
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.37
+7.3%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
71.6%
1.47
Betfair
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
Superbet
1.48
Unibet
1.47
Betano
1.47
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
71.4%
1.52
Pinnacle
1.55
Unibet
1.54
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.53
Superbet
1.52
+9.9%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
71.1%
1.36
Unibet
1.40
Betano
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
Superbet
1.29
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
70.9%
1.58
Superbet
1.59
Unibet
1.58
Betfair
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
+13.4%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Liverpool · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mohamed Salah30%
Hugo Ekitiké30%
Dominik Szoboszlai25%
Alexander Isak18%
Cody Gakpo18%
Florian Wirtz15%
Virgil van Dijk13%
Ryan Gravenberch12%
Andy Robertson9%
Federico Chiesa8%
Alexis Mac Allister7%
Rio Ngumoha7%
Curtis Jones6%
Miloš Kerkez4%
Ibrahima Konaté4%
Jeremie Frimpong3%
Alisson0%
Joe Gomez0%
Wataru Endo0%
Freddie Woodman0%
Giorgi Mamardashvili0%
Conor Bradley0%
Trey Nyoni0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Conor Bradley33%
Dominik Szoboszlai19%
Joe Gomez18%
Ibrahima Konaté18%
Alexis Mac Allister17%
Ryan Gravenberch16%
Virgil van Dijk11%
Federico Chiesa11%
Miloš Kerkez11%
Wataru Endo9%
Curtis Jones8%
Cody Gakpo6%
Hugo Ekitiké5%
Alisson3%
Jeremie Frimpong3%
Andy Robertson3%
Mohamed Salah2%
Florian Wirtz2%
Alexander Isak0%
Freddie Woodman0%
Giorgi Mamardashvili0%
Trey Nyoni0%
Rio Ngumoha0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mohamed Salah25%
Dominik Szoboszlai19%
Florian Wirtz12%
Ryan Gravenberch12%
Hugo Ekitiké11%
Cody Gakpo10%
Alexis Mac Allister9%
Wataru Endo9%
Curtis Jones6%
Joe Gomez6%
Andy Robertson6%
Federico Chiesa6%
Conor Bradley5%
Alexander Isak5%
Miloš Kerkez4%
Rio Ngumoha3%
Jeremie Frimpong3%
Virgil van Dijk2%
Alisson0%
Ibrahima Konaté0%
Freddie Woodman0%
Giorgi Mamardashvili0%
Trey Nyoni0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mohamed Salah28%
Hugo Ekitiké23%
Dominik Szoboszlai21%
Cody Gakpo18%
Alexis Mac Allister9%
Alexander Isak9%
Florian Wirtz8%
Virgil van Dijk4%
Rio Ngumoha3%
Federico Chiesa3%
Miloš Kerkez2%
Ryan Gravenberch2%
Alisson0%
Joe Gomez0%
Andy Robertson0%
Curtis Jones0%
Ibrahima Konaté0%
Wataru Endo0%
Freddie Woodman0%
Giorgi Mamardashvili0%
Jeremie Frimpong0%
Conor Bradley0%
Trey Nyoni0%
Nottingham Forest
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dan Ndoye33%
Xaver Schlager0%
Ola Aina0%
Nikola Milenković0%
Matz Sels0%
Igor Jesus0%
Neco Williams0%
Luca Netz0%
Jair0%
Murillo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ola Aina67%
Jair67%
Xaver Schlager33%
Igor Jesus33%
Murillo33%
Nikola Milenković0%
Matz Sels0%
Dan Ndoye0%
Neco Williams0%
Luca Netz0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Xaver Schlager0%
Ola Aina0%
Nikola Milenković0%
Matz Sels0%
Igor Jesus0%
Dan Ndoye0%
Neco Williams0%
Luca Netz0%
Jair0%
Murillo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Dan Ndoye33%
Xaver Schlager0%
Ola Aina0%
Nikola Milenković0%
Matz Sels0%
Igor Jesus0%
Neco Williams0%
Luca Netz0%
Jair0%
Murillo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
COV (27)
€237m
HUL (27)
€105m
Liverpool's squad is €429m more valuable than Nottingham Forest's (€980m vs €551m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
HUL (7)
€22m
Liverpool's attack is €255m more valuable than Nottingham Forest's (€518m vs €263m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
IPS (7)
€66m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
HUL (8)
€31m
FUL (3)
€28m
Liverpool's midfield is €149m more valuable than Nottingham Forest's (€201m vs €52m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
HUL (12)
€52m
Liverpool's defence is €25m more valuable than Nottingham Forest's (€260m vs €236m).
England: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
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Manchester City
Arsenal
Hull
Chelsea
Brentford
Newcastle
Everton
Leeds
Brighton
Manchester United
Sunderland
Ipswich
Bournemouth
Fulham
Coventry
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa
Tottenham