This match between Maritimo and Academico Viseu promises to be a closely contested affair, with the recent form of both teams adding to the intrigue. Maritimo is coming off a win, having defeated Casa Pia 1-0, while Academico Viseu has been unbeaten in their last 5 matches, drawing 2-2 against Benfica. The model predicts a 38% chance of an away win for Academico Viseu, with the home win percentage at 32% and the draw percentage at 30%.
The expected total number of goals is 2.5, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 14.1%. Maritimo has averaged 1.42 goals scored and 1.17 conceded at home, while Academico Viseu has averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded away from home against similar opponents.
The model's selections include Over 21.5 fouls (93.1%), Over 3.5 cards (78.7%), Under 3.5 (75.9%), and Over 1.5 (72.4%).
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Away win, did not materialise, as the match finished 2-2, a draw that extended both sides’ recent runs of a single draw. The model’s call was wrong, with a 38 % probability for the away side. The final score of 2-2 matched the most likely score of 1-1 only in goal count, but the actual result was a draw. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 (99.6 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.5 %), Under 6.5 (98.6 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.1 %), Over 19.5 fouls (96.9 %), Home under 3.5 goals (96.8 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.6 %), and Under 5.5 (95.9 %). All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Maritimo win✗ Miss
32.1%
Avg Implied 46.4% · @ 2.03
Edge
-14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.09
Pinnacle
2.09
1xBet
2.09
Superbet
2.07
Bet365
2.05
Draw✓ Hit
29.6%
Avg Implied 28.8% · @ 3.26
Edge
+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.40
1xBet
3.38
Dafabet
3.35
Unibet
3.35
Pinnacle
3.31
Academico Viseu win✗ Miss
38.3%
Avg Implied 24.8% · @ 3.79
Edge
+13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
4.00
Betano
3.95
Pinnacle
3.94
Bet365
3.90
1xBet
3.89
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Maritimo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
0.93
1.40
1.00
1.73
0.87
vs Stronger (6)
1.33
0.83
1.33
0.67
1.33
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.62
0.96
1.42
1.08
1.83
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Academico Viseu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Academico Viseu
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.80
1.73
0.60
1.53
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
2.00
-
-
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
1.56
0.70
1.57
0.57
1.54
0.85
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.50
4.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Maritimo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.3%
@ 1.39+5.1%
Under 1.5
27.7%
@ 2.85-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.41
888Sport
1.40
Under
Betfair
3.10
10Bet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Betano
2.95
Pinnacle
2.87
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.3%
@ 2.22+2.8%
Under 2.5
54.7%
@ 1.64-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.38
1xBet
2.32
Superbet
2.27
Betano
2.25
888Sport
2.25
Under
10Bet
1.70
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.67
Betfair
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
24.0%
@ 4.12+1.3%
Under 3.5
76.0%
@ 1.21-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.40
888Sport
4.40
Superbet
4.35
BetVictor
4.33
Betfair
4.10
Under
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.23
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.8%
@ 1.94+3.8%
No
48.2%
@ 1.79-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
2.02
Bet365
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
BetVictor
1.95
No
Betfair
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Betano
1.82
888Sport
1.80
William Hil
1.80
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%@ 5.89+6.5%
0-1
9.6%@ 9.01+4.6%
0-0
9.6%@ 7.87+3.9%
1-0
8.5%@ 5.97+1.0%
1-2
8.4%@ 12.00+4.7%
2-1
7.6%@ 8.20+2.1%
0-2
7.1%@ 17.50+4.6%
2-0
5.8%@ 8.49+0.5%
Maritimo goals ↓
Academico Viseu goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.6%
9.6%
7.1%
3.1%
1.0%
1
8.5%
14%
8.4%
3.7%
1.2%
2
5.8%
7.6%
4.9%
2.2%
0.7%
3
2.3%
3.0%
1.9%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.7%
0.9%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maritimo goals (down), columns = Academico Viseu goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.59
Sporting CP
2.41
Benfica
2.35
SC Braga
1.74
Famalicao
1.65
GIL Vicente
1.47
Moreirense
1.26
Guimaraes
1.24
Arouca
1.24
Alverca
1.15
Estoril
1.15
Academico Viseu
1.08
Rio Ave
1.06
Santa Clara
1.06
Maritimo
1.03
Nacional
1.00
Casa Pia
0.94
Estrela
0.88
Maritimo is 0.05 points worse than Academico Viseu in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.08).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.62
Benfica
2.18
FC Porto
1.94
SC Braga
1.88
Estoril
1.59
GIL Vicente
1.38
Arouca
1.38
Famalicao
1.24
Guimaraes
1.15
Estrela
1.12
Moreirense
1.09
Nacional
1.09
Academico Viseu
1.04
Rio Ave
1.03
Alverca
1.03
Maritimo
0.99
Santa Clara
0.94
Casa Pia
0.92
Maritimo is 0.05 goals worse than Academico Viseu in terms of goals scored per game (0.99 vs 1.04).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.53
Sporting CP
0.71
Benfica
0.74
Famalicao
0.85
SC Braga
1.06
GIL Vicente
1.12
Santa Clara
1.21
Nacional
1.32
Moreirense
1.44
Guimaraes
1.50
Alverca
1.53
Casa Pia
1.58
Academico Viseu
1.61
Estrela
1.65
Rio Ave
1.68
Estoril
1.68
Maritimo
1.69
Arouca
1.88
Maritimo is 0.08 goals worse than Academico Viseu in terms of goals conceded per game (1.69 vs 1.61).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
SC Braga
63%
Sporting CP
62%
Benfica
58%
FC Porto
55%
Estoril
53%
Guimaraes
51%
Famalicao
51%
Arouca
50%
GIL Vicente
50%
Moreirense
50%
Santa Clara
48%
Rio Ave
47%
Estrela
47%
Nacional
46%
Alverca
45%
Casa Pia
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Maritimo
For 3.1 · Against 4.2 · Total 7.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 3.1 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.8 · Against 13.5 · Total 29.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Academico Viseu
For 4.2 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 2.8 · Total 6.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.8 · Against 14.9 · Total 29.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Maritimo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.2
7.9
8.4
5.0
5.1
5.0
24.7
19.8
28.9
vs Stronger (10)
6.5
-
6.5
4.5
6.3
3.7
22.0
-
22.0
vs Similar (39)
8.4
7.9
8.7
5.3
4.9
5.8
25.0
19.8
30.7
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
33%
25%
38%
74%
76%
72%
77%
67%
86%
% under line
67%
75%
62%
26%
24%
28%
23%
33%
14%
This opponent (Academico Viseu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Academico Viseu
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.6
10.3
5.0
5.0
5.0
24.8
23.9
26.2
vs Stronger (1)
12.0
-
12.0
6.0
-
6.0
26.0
-
26.0
vs Similar (41)
9.9
9.8
10.0
5.1
5.1
5.0
24.4
24.1
24.9
vs Weaker (8)
9.7
9.0
11.0
4.5
4.0
5.0
26.5
23.0
37.0
% over line
55%
45%
67%
78%
80%
76%
79%
79%
80%
% under line
45%
55%
33%
22%
20%
24%
21%
21%
20%
This opponent (Maritimo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Famalicao
10.5
Nacional
10.4
Rio Ave
10.3
Benfica
10.1
Sporting CP
10.0
Academico Viseu
9.9
Casa Pia
9.7
Arouca
9.1
GIL Vicente
9.1
Estoril
9.0
Alverca
9.0
Estrela
9.0
FC Porto
8.9
Santa Clara
8.9
Guimaraes
8.7
Maritimo
8.2
SC Braga
8.2
Moreirense
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Santa Clara
6.0
Maritimo
5.8
Academico Viseu
5.8
Casa Pia
5.8
Arouca
5.6
Estrela
5.6
Nacional
5.5
FC Porto
5.4
Guimaraes
5.4
Famalicao
5.4
Sporting CP
5.3
Moreirense
5.2
Benfica
5.1
Rio Ave
5.1
SC Braga
4.9
Alverca
4.9
GIL Vicente
4.8
Estoril
4.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Famalicao
32.1
Santa Clara
30.2
Estrela
30.1
Moreirense
29.3
Casa Pia
29.1
Guimaraes
28.9
GIL Vicente
27.9
Nacional
27.2
Estoril
27.0
Rio Ave
27.0
Sporting CP
26.7
Arouca
26.1
FC Porto
25.8
Benfica
25.6
Academico Viseu
24.8
SC Braga
24.3
Alverca
23.6
Maritimo
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
40.9%
@ 2.04-4.4%
Under 9.5
59.1%
@ 1.69+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.08
Superbet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.05
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.01
Under
Pinnacle
1.74
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.68
1xBet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.67
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
78.7%
Under 3.5
21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
92.6%
Under 21.5
7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Maritimo or Draw✓ Hit
61.7%
Avg Implied 75.3% · @ 1.25
Edge
-13.6%
32%
30%
38%
covers Maritimo + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Maritimo or Academico Viseu✗ Miss
70.4%
Avg Implied 71.7% · @ 1.31
Edge
-1.3%
32%
30%
38%
covers Maritimo + Academico Viseu
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
William Hil
1.33
Bet365
1.33
888Sport
1.33
Draw or Academico Viseu✓ Hit
67.9%
Avg Implied 53.0% · @ 1.77
Edge
+14.9%
32%
30%
38%
covers Draw + Academico Viseu
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.83
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.79
10Bet
1.77
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Maritimo over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
69.2%
@ 1.25-5.2%
Under
30.8%
@ 3.64+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.27
Pinnacle
1.27
888Sport
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Under
10Bet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Pinnacle
3.75
Unibet
3.65
Maritimo over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
33.0%
@ 2.23-8.9%
Under
67.0%
@ 1.61+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.41
888Sport
2.30
Marathonbet
2.29
Superbet
2.27
BetVictor
2.25
Under
Betfair
1.67
Unibet
1.63
10Bet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.62
Maritimo over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.6%
@ 4.91-7.4%
Under
88.4%
@ 1.15+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.25
Marathonbet
5.15
1xBet
5.10
Superbet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Under
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Maritimo over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.2%
@ 11.64-5.0%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.03+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
15.00
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
13.00
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
10.70
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Academico Viseu over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.0%
@ 1.53+12.0%
Under
27.0%
@ 2.39-12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.58
Betfair
1.53
888Sport
1.53
Unibet
1.53
BetVictor
1.53
Under
Bet365
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Pinnacle
2.47
Betano
2.40
Superbet
2.40
Academico Viseu over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
37.7%
@ 3.56+11.4%
Under
62.3%
@ 1.26-11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.93
888Sport
3.70
BetVictor
3.70
Marathonbet
3.64
Superbet
3.55
Under
Betfair
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Academico Viseu over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.5%
@ 10.02+5.1%
Under
85.5%
@ 1.04-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
12.00
Bet365
11.00
Marathonbet
10.50
1xBet
10.00
Superbet
9.40
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Academico Viseu over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.4%
@ 25.12+0.5%
Under
95.6%
@ 1.01-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
30.00
Bet365
29.00
888Sport
29.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
888Sport
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Maritimo, so a minus line means Maritimo give that many goals of a start and Academico Viseu receive them. At -1, Maritimo must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Maritimo win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Maritimo)Actual: Academico Viseu
Maritimo -2
4.4%
@ 8.27-6.4%
Draw -2
9.4%
@ 5.71-6.3%
Academico Viseu +2
86.2%
@ 1.22+12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
8.50
Marathonbet
8.40
Superbet
8.20
10Bet
8.00
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.90
Superbet
5.60
10Bet
5.50
Away
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Handicap -1 (Maritimo)Actual: Academico Viseu
Maritimo -1
13.8%
@ 3.77-10.0%
Draw -1
18.3%
@ 3.54-7.1%
Academico Viseu +1
67.9%
@ 1.76+17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.75
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.60
Superbet
3.60
Marathonbet
3.48
10Bet
3.45
Away
Unibet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.75
Superbet
1.73
Handicap +1 (Maritimo)Actual: Maritimo
Maritimo +1
61.7%
@ 1.24-10.5%
Draw +1
20.5%
@ 5.12+3.0%
Academico Viseu -1
17.9%
@ 8.70+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.22
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.15
Unibet
5.10
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Away
Bet365
9.50
Betfair
9.50
Unibet
8.50
Marathonbet
8.50
10Bet
8.50
Handicap +2 (Maritimo)Actual: Maritimo
Maritimo +2
82.1%
@ 1.05-5.8%
Draw +2
11.6%
@ 11.50+3.5%
Academico Viseu -2
6.3%
@ 22.67+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
13.00
10Bet
8.50
Away
Bet365
26.00
Betfair
23.00
10Bet
19.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Maritimo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.40
0.67
0.33
0.87
0.47
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
0.50
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.38
0.67
0.33
0.83
0.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Academico Viseu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Academico Viseu
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.43
0.47
0.47
0.67
0.40
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.59
0.41
0.43
0.43
0.77
0.38
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Maritimo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
71.6%
@ 1.46+7.8%
Under 0.5
28.4%
@ 2.57-7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.53
Pinnacle
1.51
Superbet
1.50
BetVictor
1.47
1xBet
1.47
Under
Betfair
2.75
10Bet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
William Hil
2.62
Pinnacle
2.61
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
36.1%
@ 3.17+6.6%
Under 1.5
63.9%
@ 1.32-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.30
Betano
3.30
Pinnacle
3.28
Bet365
3.25
Marathonbet
3.22
Under
10Bet
1.36
Betano
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
Bet365
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.6%
@ 8.29+0.4%
Under 2.5
88.4%
@ 1.05-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
William Hil
9.00
Superbet
8.80
Marathonbet
8.40
1xBet
8.40
Under
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.07
William Hil
1.06
Superbet
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maritimo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
57.3%
@ 1.97+10.0%
Under
42.7%
@ 1.76-10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.08
Betano
2.02
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.99
10Bet
1.91
Under
10Bet
1.83
1xBet
1.80
Unibet
1.78
Pinnacle
1.76
Betano
1.75
Maritimo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
21.4%
@ 6.03+6.0%
Under
78.6%
@ 1.10-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.45
Superbet
6.00
Betano
5.70
10Bet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
Maritimo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 15.88-2.6%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.02+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Academico Viseu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
30.3%
@ 2.65-4.8%
Under
69.7%
@ 1.43+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.87
Betano
2.70
Marathonbet
2.64
1xBet
2.63
Superbet
2.62
Under
10Bet
1.48
1xBet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.43
Unibet
1.42
Academico Viseu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
5.9%
@ 9.76-3.8%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.04+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.00
Superbet
9.80
1xBet
9.50
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Academico Viseu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.5%
@ 40.00-99.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
40.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Maritimo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
0.73
0.67
0.87
0.40
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.33
0.67
0.33
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (24)
0.88
0.58
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Academico Viseu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Academico Viseu
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.37
1.27
0.13
0.87
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.96
0.30
1.14
0.14
0.77
0.46
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Maritimo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.3%
Under 0.5
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
45.7%
Under 1.5
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
19.8%
Under 2.5
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maritimo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
63.1%
Under
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritimo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
28.1%
Under
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maritimo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.6%
Under
91.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Academico Viseu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
38.9%
Under
61.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Academico Viseu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.5%
Under
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Academico Viseu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.8%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.02
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.6%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
1xBet
1.01
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
888Sport
1.01
-
-
-0.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.1%
1.04
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Superbet
1.03
-
-
+3.8%
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
89.3%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.07
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
88.4%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.15
+7.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.07
William Hil
1.06
Superbet
1.06
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
86.2%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
+12.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
85.5%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.04
888Sport
1.04
-5.1%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
82.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
-
-5.8%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
80.6%
1.23
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.24
Unibet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
78.6%
1.10
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
-6.0%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.0%
1.21
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.23
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-1.3%
✗ Miss
Over 25.5 fouls
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
73.0%
1.53
Pinnacle
1.58
Betfair
1.53
888Sport
1.53
Unibet
1.53
BetVictor
1.53
+12.0%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.3%
1.39
Pinnacle
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Betano
1.42
BetVictor
1.41
888Sport
1.40
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.6%
1.46
Betano
1.53
Pinnacle
1.51
Superbet
1.50
BetVictor
1.47
1xBet
1.47
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
70.9%
1.40
Superbet
1.44
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.39
Unibet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.4%
1.31
1xBet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
William Hil
1.33
Bet365
1.33
888Sport
1.33
-1.3%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Maritimo
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Simo Bouzaidi33%
Paulo Henrique25%
Raphael Guzzo25%
Adrián Butzke25%
Maurice Boakye25%
Martín Tejón25%
Igor Julião0%
Romain Correia0%
Vladan Danilović0%
Alfonso Pastor0%
Samuel Bamba0%
Rodrigo Andrade0%
Rafael Fernandes0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Raphael Guzzo75%
Igor Julião50%
Adrián Butzke25%
Paulo Henrique0%
Romain Correia0%
Vladan Danilović0%
Simo Bouzaidi0%
Alfonso Pastor0%
Samuel Bamba0%
Rodrigo Andrade0%
Rafael Fernandes0%
Maurice Boakye0%
Martín Tejón0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Martín Tejón25%
Igor Julião0%
Paulo Henrique0%
Raphael Guzzo0%
Romain Correia0%
Vladan Danilović0%
Simo Bouzaidi0%
Alfonso Pastor0%
Adrián Butzke0%
Samuel Bamba0%
Rodrigo Andrade0%
Rafael Fernandes0%
Maurice Boakye0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Paulo Henrique50%
Martín Tejón50%
Igor Julião0%
Raphael Guzzo0%
Romain Correia0%
Vladan Danilović0%
Simo Bouzaidi0%
Alfonso Pastor0%
Adrián Butzke0%
Samuel Bamba0%
Rodrigo Andrade0%
Rafael Fernandes0%
Maurice Boakye0%
Academico Viseu
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
André Clóvis50%
Soufiane Messeguem25%
Robinho0%
André Ceitil0%
Anthony Correia0%
Ewerton0%
Cihan Kahraman0%
Dominik Steczyk0%
Pedro Barcelos0%
Álvaro Zamora0%
Nikolaos Michelis0%
João Guilherme0%
Lorougnon Gohi0%
Alejandro Mestanza0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
André Ceitil67%
Anthony Correia50%
Álvaro Zamora33%
Nikolaos Michelis33%
Cihan Kahraman25%
Soufiane Messeguem25%
Alejandro Mestanza25%
Robinho0%
André Clóvis0%
Ewerton0%
Dominik Steczyk0%
Pedro Barcelos0%
João Guilherme0%
Lorougnon Gohi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Robinho25%
Anthony Correia25%
Cihan Kahraman25%
André Ceitil0%
André Clóvis0%
Ewerton0%
Dominik Steczyk0%
Pedro Barcelos0%
Álvaro Zamora0%
Soufiane Messeguem0%
Nikolaos Michelis0%
João Guilherme0%
Lorougnon Gohi0%
Alejandro Mestanza0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
André Clóvis25%
João Guilherme25%
Robinho0%
André Ceitil0%
Anthony Correia0%
Ewerton0%
Cihan Kahraman0%
Dominik Steczyk0%
Pedro Barcelos0%
Álvaro Zamora0%
Soufiane Messeguem0%
Nikolaos Michelis0%
Lorougnon Gohi0%
Alejandro Mestanza0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
ALV (30)
€39m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
CP (29)
€27m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
EST (22)
€20m
NAC (31)
€20m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
Maritimo and Academico Viseu have a similar squad value (both €16m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ALV (8)
€15m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
CP (11)
€9m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
AV (11)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
EST (6)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
Maritimo's attack is €1m less valuable than Academico Viseu's (€7m vs €8m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
ALV (8)
€6m
CP (7)
€6m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
EST (5)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
Maritimo and Academico Viseu have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
ALV (14)
€18m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
CP (11)
€12m
EST (11)
€11m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
Maritimo and Academico Viseu have a similar defence value (both €6m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Porto
Sporting CP
Arouca
Santa Clara
Benfica
GIL Vicente
Estrela
SC Braga
Nacional
Moreirense
Guimaraes
Rio Ave
Famalicao
Alverca
Estoril
Casa Pia