Sporting CP is the clear favourite, with the model assigning a 74 % chance of an away win. The model’s confidence stems from Sporting’s strong away form, scoring 2.25 goals per game and conceding only 1.25 against weaker opponents, while Rio Ave struggles at home, averaging just 0.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded against stronger sides. The expected total is 3.2 goals, centring on a 3-goal outcome that the model rates 22 % likely. The single most likely scoreline is 0-2, with a 12.3 % probability. Home win probability sits at 9 %, draw 17 %, and away win 74 %. Suggested picks include Home under 2.5 HT goals (99.4 %), Home under 3.5 goals (99.3 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals (98.8 %), Away +2 handicap (98.1 % with a 3 % edge), Under 7.5 (97.3 % with a 3 % edge), Home under 2.5 goals (96.2 % with a 5 % edge), Home under 1.5 HT goals (94.9 % with a 5 % edge), and Away under 2.5 HT goals (94.3 % with a 7 % edge). Sporting’s recent two-game winning streak and Rio Ave’s return from a win add further weight to the predicted outcome.
Results analysis
Rio Ave’s recent form has been shaky, coming off a defeat, while Sporting CP are riding a three-game winning streak. The model’s favourite, an away win, proved correct as Sporting CP secured a 0-4 victory. The pre-match probability for the favoured result was 73%. The model’s selections largely hit: Home under 3.5 goals (99.3%) and Home under 2.5 HT goals (99.2%) both came through, as did Home under 2.5 2H goals (99.0%) and the Away +2 handicap (98.1%). Under 7.5 (97.4%) and Home under 2.5 goals (96.1%) were also correct, while Home under 1.5 HT goals (94.6%) hit. The only miss was Away under 2.5 HT goals (94.9%).
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rio Ave win✗ Miss
9.0%
Avg Implied 10.9% · @ 8.67
Edge
-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
9.65
Betfair
9.50
Pinnacle
9.43
William Hil
9.00
Betano
9.00
Draw✗ Miss
17.5%
Avg Implied 18.2% · @ 5.18
Edge
-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
5.69
Betano
5.50
Dafabet
5.40
Pinnacle
5.35
Superbet
5.30
Sporting CP win✓ Hit
73.5%
Avg Implied 70.9% · @ 1.33
Edge
+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.37
Unibet
1.36
Dafabet
1.35
Superbet
1.35
SBO
1.34
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Rio Ave
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.67
0.79
1.79
1.06
1.56
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
2.67
0.33
2.67
0.00
2.67
vs Similar (24)
1.12
1.42
0.91
1.55
1.31
1.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Sporting CP) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sporting CP
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
1.00
2.29
0.94
1.77
1.08
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.71
1.00
1.00
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (23)
2.48
1.09
2.69
0.92
2.20
1.30
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Rio Ave) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.5%
@ 1.19+4.6%
Under 1.5
16.5%
@ 4.44-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Under
10Bet
5.00
Pinnacle
4.62
BetVictor
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.8%
@ 1.64+4.0%
Under 2.5
38.2%
@ 2.24-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.67
Under
10Bet
2.55
1xBet
2.26
Pinnacle
2.26
Betano
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
39.5%
@ 2.56+2.9%
Under 3.5
60.5%
@ 1.47-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.72
Betano
2.67
Superbet
2.67
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Under
10Bet
1.62
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Superbet
1.48
Betfair
1.47
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.3%
@ 1.95+1.5%
No
50.7%
@ 1.78-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
2.02
Betfair
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Betano
2.00
Marathonbet
1.98
No
10Bet
1.95
Unibet
1.80
William Hil
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Bet365
1.75
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
12.2%@ 6.31+5.0%
0-3
9.9%@ 8.06+4.3%
0-1
9.3%@ 6.93+2.8%
1-2
9.2%@ 7.92+3.6%
1-1
8.4%@ 9.28+3.5%
1-3
7.5%@ 10.36+3.1%
0-4 ✓
6.0%@ 13.07+2.5%
0-0
4.9%@ 14.83+1.8%
Rio Ave goals ↓
Sporting CP goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
9.3%
12%
9.9%
6.0%
1
2.4%
8.4%
9.2%
7.5%
4.5%
2
1.2%
2.9%
3.5%
2.8%
1.7%
3
0.3%
0.7%
0.9%
0.7%
0.4%
4
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rio Ave goals (down), columns = Sporting CP goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.59
Sporting CP
2.41
Benfica
2.35
SC Braga
1.74
Famalicao
1.65
GIL Vicente
1.47
Moreirense
1.26
Arouca
1.24
Guimaraes
1.24
Estoril
1.15
Alverca
1.15
Maritimo
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.10
Rio Ave
1.06
Santa Clara
1.06
Nacional
1.00
Casa Pia
0.94
Estrela
0.88
Rio Ave is 1.35 points worse than Sporting CP in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 2.41).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.62
Benfica
2.18
FC Porto
1.94
SC Braga
1.88
Estoril
1.59
Arouca
1.38
GIL Vicente
1.38
Famalicao
1.24
Guimaraes
1.15
Estrela
1.12
Moreirense
1.09
Nacional
1.09
Maritimo
1.08
Academico Viseu
1.06
Rio Ave
1.03
Alverca
1.03
Santa Clara
0.94
Casa Pia
0.92
Rio Ave is 1.59 goals worse than Sporting CP in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 2.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.53
Sporting CP
0.71
Benfica
0.74
Famalicao
0.85
SC Braga
1.06
GIL Vicente
1.12
Santa Clara
1.21
Nacional
1.32
Moreirense
1.44
Guimaraes
1.50
Alverca
1.53
Maritimo
1.55
Academico Viseu
1.58
Casa Pia
1.58
Estrela
1.65
Estoril
1.68
Rio Ave
1.68
Arouca
1.88
Rio Ave is 0.97 goals worse than Sporting CP in terms of goals conceded per game (1.68 vs 0.71).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
SC Braga
63%
Sporting CP
62%
Benfica
58%
FC Porto
55%
Estoril
53%
Guimaraes
51%
Famalicao
51%
Arouca
50%
GIL Vicente
50%
Moreirense
50%
Santa Clara
48%
Rio Ave
47%
Estrela
47%
Nacional
46%
Alverca
45%
Casa Pia
41%
Rio Ave is 14.8 percentage points worse than Sporting CP in terms of average possession (47% vs 62%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Rio Ave
For 4.5 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.6 · Against 11.3 · Total 20.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sporting CP
For 6.1 · Against 3.2 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 3.1 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 14.1 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rio Ave
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
11.0
9.9
4.8
4.8
4.8
27.1
26.1
28.0
vs Stronger (12)
11.2
11.1
11.4
3.8
4.1
3.4
23.5
22.9
24.4
vs Similar (37)
10.2
11.0
9.6
5.1
5.1
5.1
28.3
27.5
28.9
vs Weaker (1)
11.0
11.0
-
5.0
5.0
-
27.0
27.0
-
% over line
63%
75%
52%
60%
62%
58%
80%
71%
88%
% under line
37%
25%
48%
40%
38%
42%
20%
29%
12%
This opponent (Sporting CP) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sporting CP
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.8
10.0
4.8
4.0
5.7
26.4
26.0
26.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
8.7
9.4
8.1
4.1
3.4
4.6
24.9
24.0
25.6
vs Weaker (38)
10.3
9.9
10.8
5.1
4.2
6.1
26.8
26.6
27.2
% over line
50%
48%
52%
58%
46%
71%
77%
68%
87%
% under line
50%
52%
48%
42%
54%
29%
23%
32%
13%
This opponent (Rio Ave) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rio Ave
10.4
Famalicao
10.4
Nacional
10.3
Benfica
10.1
Academico Viseu
9.9
Sporting CP
9.9
Casa Pia
9.7
Arouca
9.2
GIL Vicente
9.1
FC Porto
9.0
Estoril
9.0
Santa Clara
9.0
Estrela
9.0
Alverca
8.8
Guimaraes
8.6
Maritimo
8.2
SC Braga
8.2
Moreirense
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Santa Clara
6.0
Maritimo
5.9
Academico Viseu
5.8
Casa Pia
5.7
Arouca
5.6
Estrela
5.6
Nacional
5.4
FC Porto
5.4
Famalicao
5.4
Guimaraes
5.2
Sporting CP
5.2
Moreirense
5.2
Benfica
5.1
Rio Ave
5.1
SC Braga
4.9
GIL Vicente
4.8
Alverca
4.8
Estoril
4.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Famalicao
32.2
Santa Clara
30.2
Estrela
30.1
Moreirense
29.3
Casa Pia
29.1
Guimaraes
28.9
GIL Vicente
27.8
Nacional
27.1
Rio Ave
27.0
Estoril
26.8
Sporting CP
26.6
Arouca
26.0
FC Porto
25.9
Benfica
25.6
Academico Viseu
25.1
SC Braga
24.6
Maritimo
24.1
Alverca
23.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
55.4%
@ 1.71+1.2%
Under 9.5
44.6%
@ 2.02-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.72
Betano
1.70
Under
Pinnacle
2.07
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.05
1xBet
2.02
Superbet
2.00
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
78.5%
@ 1.38+13.2%
Under 3.5
21.5%
@ 2.60-13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.38
Under
Superbet
2.60
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
81.3%
Under 21.5
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Rio Ave or Draw✗ Miss
21.1%
Avg Implied 28.9% · @ 3.25
Edge
-7.8%
9%
18%
73%
covers Rio Ave + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.50
William Hil
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Marathonbet
3.32
Betfair
3.30
Rio Ave or Sporting CP✓ Hit
85.6%
Avg Implied 82.9% · @ 1.13
Edge
+2.7%
9%
18%
73%
covers Rio Ave + Sporting CP
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Draw or Sporting CP✓ Hit
93.3%
Avg Implied 88.2% · @ 1.07
Edge
+5.1%
9%
18%
73%
covers Draw + Sporting CP
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.10
BetVictor
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Rio Ave over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
52.1%
@ 1.78-0.1%
Under
47.9%
@ 1.94+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.85
Betfair
1.83
Betano
1.82
Superbet
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Under
10Bet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.00
Unibet
1.98
Betano
1.93
Superbet
1.92
Rio Ave over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
16.9%
@ 4.85-2.5%
Under
83.1%
@ 1.16+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.50
Bet365
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
5.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Rio Ave over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
3.9%
@ 14.06-2.9%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.02+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
16.00
Betfair
11.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Rio Ave over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.7%
@ 53.00-99.3%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
55.00
Bet365
51.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Sporting CP over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
93.7%
@ 1.07+5.9%
Under
6.3%
@ 7.70-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Under
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.50
1xBet
7.50
Superbet
7.10
Betano
6.40
Sporting CP over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
76.2%
@ 1.42+10.3%
Under
23.8%
@ 2.74-10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
1xBet
1.43
Under
10Bet
2.95
Pinnacle
2.93
Betfair
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Sporting CP over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
52.0%
@ 2.30+11.4%
Under
48.0%
@ 1.57-11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.46
1xBet
2.37
Marathonbet
2.36
Superbet
2.35
BetVictor
2.30
Under
10Bet
1.65
Betfair
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Pinnacle
1.58
Betano
1.57
Sporting CP over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
29.9%
@ 4.32+8.3%
Under
70.1%
@ 1.19-8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.57
Marathonbet
4.55
BetVictor
4.50
Betfair
4.50
1xBet
4.50
Under
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.20
Betfair
1.20
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Rio Ave, so a minus line means Rio Ave give that many goals of a start and Sporting CP receive them. At -1, Rio Ave must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Rio Ave win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Rio Ave)Actual: Sporting CP
Rio Ave -2
0.4%
@ 69.00-1.0%
Draw -2
1.5%
@ 25.00-2.3%
Sporting CP +2
98.1%
@ 1.01+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
101.00
Superbet
55.00
Bet365
51.00
Draw
Betfair
31.00
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
21.00
Away
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betfair
1.01
Handicap -1 (Rio Ave)Actual: Sporting CP
Rio Ave -1
1.9%
@ 20.50-2.5%
Draw -1
4.8%
@ 9.72-4.6%
Sporting CP +1
93.3%
@ 1.06+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
26.00
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
18.00
10Bet
17.00
Draw
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
11.00
10Bet
8.50
Superbet
8.40
Away
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Handicap +1 (Rio Ave)Actual: Sporting CP
Rio Ave +1
21.1%
@ 3.25-6.5%
Draw +1
19.7%
@ 3.60-5.2%
Sporting CP -1
59.2%
@ 1.89+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Marathonbet
3.32
10Bet
3.25
Superbet
3.15
Draw
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.65
Superbet
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
Away
Marathonbet
1.94
Unibet
1.92
Betfair
1.91
Superbet
1.90
10Bet
1.85
Handicap +2 (Rio Ave)Actual: Sporting CP
Rio Ave +2
40.8%
@ 1.81-9.0%
Draw +2
21.6%
@ 4.00-0.8%
Sporting CP -2
37.6%
@ 3.23+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
Betfair
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.15
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Superbet
3.90
Away
Unibet
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.25
Marathonbet
3.20
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rio Ave
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.77
0.36
1.00
0.31
0.56
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.33
0.33
1.67
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.38
0.62
0.36
0.82
0.38
0.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Sporting CP) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sporting CP
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.30
1.06
0.18
0.54
0.46
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.00
0.14
0.00
0.25
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (23)
1.09
0.35
1.38
0.15
0.70
0.60
Clean sheet %
77% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Rio Ave) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.2%
@ 1.28+4.5%
Under 0.5
22.8%
@ 3.42-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Under
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Superbet
3.55
Bet365
3.50
Marathonbet
3.34
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
42.1%
@ 2.36+2.5%
Under 1.5
57.9%
@ 1.54-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.52
Pinnacle
2.51
Marathonbet
2.41
1xBet
2.41
Betfair
2.40
Under
10Bet
1.62
SBO
1.58
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.57
William Hil
1.55
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
15.2%
@ 5.41-2.0%
Under 2.5
84.8%
@ 1.12+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.70
1xBet
5.70
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
William Hil
5.50
Under
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Betano
1.14
William Hil
1.12
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rio Ave over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
29.7%
@ 3.17+0.3%
Under
70.3%
@ 1.32-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.65
Marathonbet
3.26
Betano
3.20
Superbet
3.15
1xBet
3.00
Under
10Bet
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Unibet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Rio Ave over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.4%
@ 12.12-2.4%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.02+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Rio Ave over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.8%
@ 60.00-99.2%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
60.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Sporting CP over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
68.0%
@ 1.47+4.5%
Under
32.0%
@ 2.56-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.53
Pinnacle
1.49
1xBet
1.48
Unibet
1.46
Superbet
1.45
Under
10Bet
2.80
Pinnacle
2.65
Superbet
2.55
Unibet
2.48
1xBet
2.47
Sporting CP over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
26.4%
@ 3.19-2.6%
Under
73.6%
@ 1.30+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.40
Betano
3.35
1xBet
3.20
Superbet
3.10
10Bet
2.90
Under
10Bet
1.36
Superbet
1.32
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
Sporting CP over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
5.1%
@ 7.88-6.6%
Under
94.9%
@ 1.05+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.90
Superbet
7.90
Betano
7.70
10Bet
7.00
Under
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rio Ave
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.90
0.43
0.79
0.75
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.79
0.55
0.73
0.92
0.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Sporting CP) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sporting CP
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.70
1.24
0.76
1.23
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.57
1.00
0.75
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (23)
1.39
0.74
1.31
0.77
1.50
0.70
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Rio Ave) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
81.0%
@ 1.16+1.0%
Under 0.5
19.0%
@ 4.64-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.14
Under
10Bet
5.20
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.60
1xBet
4.60
Betano
4.55
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
52.5%
@ 1.84+1.6%
Under 1.5
47.5%
@ 1.90-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.95
Superbet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Betano
1.85
Under
10Bet
2.10
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Superbet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
26.4%
@ 3.59+0.4%
Under 2.5
73.6%
@ 1.26-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.00
Superbet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.66
1xBet
3.66
Bet365
3.50
Under
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.22
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rio Ave over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
34.5%
@ 2.62-0.8%
Under
65.5%
@ 1.43+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.72
Superbet
2.65
Betano
2.62
1xBet
2.50
Under
1xBet
1.46
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.39
Rio Ave over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.5%
@ 9.66-1.1%
Under
91.5%
@ 1.03+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.25
1xBet
9.70
Superbet
9.70
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Rio Ave over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.0%
@ 40.00-99.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
40.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Sporting CP over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
76.0%
@ 1.32+5.7%
Under
24.0%
@ 3.13-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.32
Superbet
1.32
Betano
1.32
Under
Betano
3.20
Superbet
3.10
1xBet
3.10
Sporting CP over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
38.5%
@ 2.44+0.5%
Under
61.5%
@ 1.50-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.55
1xBet
2.50
Marathonbet
2.49
Betano
2.42
10Bet
2.25
Under
10Bet
1.57
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
Sporting CP over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.5%
@ 5.51-1.2%
Under
84.5%
@ 1.11+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.00
Superbet
5.85
Betano
5.20
10Bet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 3.5 goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
98.1%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betfair
1.01
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
96.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
94.9%
1.05
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
-
+6.6%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
94.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
93.7%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
93.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-1.3%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
93.3%
1.07
Betano
1.10
BetVictor
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.07
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
93.3%
1.06
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
-
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
91.5%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
85.8%
1.06
Pinnacle
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Betano
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Superbet
1.06
-3.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
85.6%
1.13
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Betano
1.16
William Hil
1.15
Unibet
1.14
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.8%
1.12
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Betano
1.14
William Hil
1.12
+2.0%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 2H goals
84.5%
1.11
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
-
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
83.5%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
83.1%
1.16
Pinnacle
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.17
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.0%
1.16
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.14
+1.0%
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
78.5%
1.38
Superbet
1.38
-
-
-
-
+13.2%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
77.2%
1.28
Betano
1.34
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Away over 1.5 goals
76.2%
1.42
Betano
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
1xBet
1.43
+10.3%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 2H goals
76.0%
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Superbet
1.32
Betano
1.32
-
-
+5.7%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
73.6%
1.26
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.22
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
73.6%
1.30
10Bet
1.36
Superbet
1.32
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
+2.6%
✗ Miss
Away win
73.5%
1.33
Betano
1.37
Unibet
1.36
Dafabet
1.35
Superbet
1.35
SBO
1.34
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
72.7%
1.17
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Pinnacle
1.19
Unibet
1.17
-7.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 0.5 HT goals
70.3%
1.32
10Bet
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Unibet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
70.1%
1.19
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.20
Betfair
1.20
-8.3%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Rio Ave
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tamblé Monteiro25%
Jalen Blesa25%
Dario Špikić0%
Georgios Liavas0%
Tamás Nikitscher0%
Marios Vrousai0%
Roland Galčík0%
Diogo Nascimento0%
Ennio Van Der Gouw0%
Andreas Ndoj0%
Nelson Abbey0%
Diogo Bezerra0%
Francisco Petrasso0%
Gustavo Mancha0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Andreas Ndoj33%
Nelson Abbey33%
Georgios Liavas25%
Tamás Nikitscher25%
Dario Špikić0%
Marios Vrousai0%
Roland Galčík0%
Diogo Nascimento0%
Ennio Van Der Gouw0%
Tamblé Monteiro0%
Diogo Bezerra0%
Jalen Blesa0%
Francisco Petrasso0%
Gustavo Mancha0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Diogo Bezerra25%
Jalen Blesa25%
Dario Špikić0%
Georgios Liavas0%
Tamás Nikitscher0%
Marios Vrousai0%
Roland Galčík0%
Diogo Nascimento0%
Ennio Van Der Gouw0%
Andreas Ndoj0%
Nelson Abbey0%
Tamblé Monteiro0%
Francisco Petrasso0%
Gustavo Mancha0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tamblé Monteiro25%
Dario Špikić0%
Georgios Liavas0%
Tamás Nikitscher0%
Marios Vrousai0%
Roland Galčík0%
Diogo Nascimento0%
Ennio Van Der Gouw0%
Andreas Ndoj0%
Nelson Abbey0%
Diogo Bezerra0%
Jalen Blesa0%
Francisco Petrasso0%
Gustavo Mancha0%
Sporting CP
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Fotis Ioannidis67%
Flávio Gonçalves50%
Maximiliano Araújo33%
Luis Javier Suárez25%
Rodrigo Zalazar25%
Geny Catamo25%
Sergi Altimira25%
Rui Silva0%
Gonçalo Inácio0%
Issa Doumbia0%
Iván Fresneda0%
Luís Guilherme0%
Jesse Derry0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luis Javier Suárez50%
Geny Catamo50%
Gonçalo Inácio33%
Jesse Derry33%
Sergi Altimira25%
Fotis Ioannidis0%
Rui Silva0%
Maximiliano Araújo0%
Rodrigo Zalazar0%
Issa Doumbia0%
Iván Fresneda0%
Luís Guilherme0%
Flávio Gonçalves0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Geny Catamo50%
Fotis Ioannidis33%
Maximiliano Araújo33%
Rodrigo Zalazar25%
Issa Doumbia25%
Flávio Gonçalves25%
Rui Silva0%
Luis Javier Suárez0%
Gonçalo Inácio0%
Sergi Altimira0%
Iván Fresneda0%
Luís Guilherme0%
Jesse Derry0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fotis Ioannidis33%
Flávio Gonçalves25%
Rui Silva0%
Luis Javier Suárez0%
Maximiliano Araújo0%
Rodrigo Zalazar0%
Geny Catamo0%
Gonçalo Inácio0%
Sergi Altimira0%
Issa Doumbia0%
Iván Fresneda0%
Luís Guilherme0%
Jesse Derry0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
ALV (30)
€39m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
CP (29)
€27m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
EST (22)
€20m
NAC (31)
€20m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
Rio Ave's squad is €376m less valuable than Sporting CP's (€37m vs €414m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ALV (8)
€15m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
CP (11)
€9m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
AV (11)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
EST (6)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
Rio Ave's attack is €138m less valuable than Sporting CP's (€8m vs €146m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
ALV (8)
€6m
CP (7)
€6m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
EST (5)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
Rio Ave's midfield is €83m less valuable than Sporting CP's (€8m vs €91m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
ALV (14)
€18m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
CP (11)
€12m
EST (11)
€11m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
Rio Ave's defence is €155m less valuable than Sporting CP's (€21m vs €176m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Porto
Arouca
Santa Clara
Benfica
GIL Vicente
Maritimo
Estrela
SC Braga
Nacional
Moreirense
Guimaraes
Famalicao
Academico Viseu
Alverca
Estoril
Casa Pia