Rochdale vs York Result & Analysis

The model favours an away win, with a 42 % chance for York, 31 % for Rochdale and 27 % for a draw. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a moderately high-scoring encounter, though the most likely total is two goals, with a 24 % chance of that outcome. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.7 % probability. Rochdale, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.9 goals scored and 1.1 conceded, while York on the road against a similar side nets 2.23 goals and concedes only 0.69. Suggested picks include Under 5.5 cards at 85 %, Over 1.5 goals at 79.3 %, and Under 4.5 cards at 71.5 %. The home win probability is 31 %, the draw 27 %, and the away win 42 %. The model’s selections are the only ones with a chance of winning; no other outcomes are assigned a win probability.

The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, an away win for York, failed to materialise, the match ending 1-1 for a draw. Rochdale, after three straight defeats, had a rough run, while York, fresh from a draw, had been in better form. The model had given the away side a 42 % chance of victory, but the result was a draw, so the model’s pick was wrong. The suggested picks saw the over 1.5 goals hit at 79.3 %, while under 5.5 cards and under 4.5 cards missed at 85.0 % and 71.5 % respectively. The final score of 1-1 matched the most likely 1-1 outcome, which had a 12.7 % probability.