Rodez and Laval are set to face off in Ligue 2 on August 8th. Laval comes into this match off the back of a 1-0 win over Rouen, while Rodez has been unbeaten in their last 5 matches, most recently drawing 0-0 against Saint Etienne.
The model predicts a home win for Rodez, with a 47% chance of victory, 30% for a draw, and 23% for Laval to win. The expected total goals is 2.3, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14% probability.
Rodez has been scoring an average of 1.45 goals at home, conceding 0.91. Laval, on the other hand, has been scoring 0.73 goals away from home, conceding 0.82.
The model's selections include Over 21.5 fouls (87.6%), Under 3.5 (80.9% with a 10% edge), and no other selections are available. Rodez has a 47% chance of winning, a 30% chance of drawing, and a 23% chance of losing.
Results analysis
Rodez's win extends their unbeaten run to 6 matches, following a 3-1 victory over Laval. The final scoreline was a reflection of the home side's dominance, as they secured the win. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, given a pre-match probability of 47%. However, several of the model's other predictions fell short. The selection of Over 21.5 fouls was missed, with a probability of 87.6%, while Under 3.5 goals was also missed, with a probability of 80.9%. Despite these misses, the model's overall assessment of the match was accurate.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Rodez winâś“ Hit
47.0%
Avg Implied 46.3% · @ 2.01
Edge
+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.07
Pinnacle
2.06
Dafabet
2.06
Superbet
2.05
SBO
2.03
Drawâś— Miss
30.2%
Avg Implied 27.5% · @ 3.39
Edge
+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.53
Betfair
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
1xBet
3.46
Marathonbet
3.46
Laval winâś— Miss
22.9%
Avg Implied 26.2% · @ 3.55
Edge
-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.68
Betano
3.65
Superbet
3.65
Unibet
3.65
Dafabet
3.65
âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis
Rodez
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.10
1.54
1.00
1.41
1.18
vs Stronger (4)
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (25)
1.40
1.12
1.45
0.91
1.36
1.29
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Laval) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Laval
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.20
1.54
1.23
1.12
1.18
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
2.43
1.00
1.50
0.20
2.80
vs Similar (22)
1.36
0.86
1.64
1.18
1.09
0.55
vs Weaker (1)
6.00
0.00
-
-
6.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Rodez) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.1%
@ 1.28-5.8%
Under 1.5
32.9%
@ 3.44+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.31
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.30
888Sport
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.64
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Betano
3.50
Superbet
3.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
39.1%
@ 1.92-10.0%
Under 2.5
60.9%
@ 1.85+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.01
Pinnacle
1.97
Superbet
1.97
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.95
Under
Marathonbet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
Pinnacle
1.90
Betano
1.90
Betfair
1.87
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
19.1%
@ 3.24-9.8%
Under 3.5
80.9%
@ 1.32+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.41
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.35
10Bet
3.30
888Sport
3.30
Under
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Betfair
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.0%
@ 1.73-8.5%
No
55.0%
@ 2.00+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.77
William Hil
1.75
888Sport
1.75
Unibet
1.74
No
Betfair
2.10
1xBet
2.05
Betano
2.05
Marathonbet
2.02
BetVictor
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%@ 6.09+6.7%
1-0
13.1%@ 6.99+6.8%
0-0
11.8%@ 9.82+7.3%
2-0
9.9%@ 9.25+5.1%
2-1
8.7%@ 7.98+3.1%
0-1
8.0%@ 9.87+3.5%
1-2
5.6%@ 11.13+1.6%
3-0
4.5%@ 16.86+1.9%
Rodez goals ↓
Laval goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
8.0%
4.1%
1.2%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
5.6%
1.6%
0.4%
2
9.9%
8.7%
3.8%
1.1%
0.2%
3
4.5%
4.0%
1.8%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.5%
1.4%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Rodez goals (down), columns = Laval goals (across).
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đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Nantes
1.92
Saint Etienne
1.75
Rodez
1.67
Reims
1.67
RED Star FC 93
1.67
Metz
1.64
Annecy
1.53
Montpellier
1.47
PAU
1.33
Dunkerque
1.28
Sochaux
1.11
Guingamp
1.11
Grenoble
1.08
Clermont Foot
1.06
Dijon
1.03
Nancy
1.03
Boulogne
1.03
Laval
0.97
Rodez is 0.69 points better than Laval in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 0.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nantes
1.80
Saint Etienne
1.72
Dunkerque
1.56
Reims
1.56
Metz
1.54
PAU
1.42
Annecy
1.42
RED Star FC 93
1.36
Rodez
1.31
Guingamp
1.22
Montpellier
1.19
Clermont Foot
1.11
Sochaux
1.05
Boulogne
1.03
Nancy
1.00
Dijon
0.97
Grenoble
0.92
Laval
0.84
Rodez is 0.46 goals better than Laval in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 0.84).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Nantes
0.85
Montpellier
0.92
Metz
1.00
Reims
1.03
Saint Etienne
1.11
RED Star FC 93
1.12
Rodez
1.14
Annecy
1.14
Grenoble
1.19
Dunkerque
1.28
Clermont Foot
1.31
Laval
1.32
Sochaux
1.47
Boulogne
1.47
Nancy
1.53
Guingamp
1.56
Dijon
1.58
PAU
1.81
Rodez is 0.18 goals better than Laval in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 1.32).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Saint Etienne
59%
Reims
58%
Dunkerque
57%
Guingamp
56%
RED Star FC 93
54%
Montpellier
52%
PAU
51%
Clermont Foot
50%
Laval
47%
Boulogne
46%
Annecy
45%
Grenoble
44%
Nancy
42%
Rodez
40%
Rodez is 6.1 percentage points worse than Laval in terms of average possession (40% vs 47%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Rodez
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.54
0.62
0.65
0.41
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.60
0.52
0.45
0.64
0.71
0.43
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Laval) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Laval
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.37
0.69
0.23
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.18
0.73
0.27
0.55
0.09
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Rodez) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Rodez over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rodez over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rodez over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laval over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laval over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laval over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Rodez
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.60
1.00
0.38
0.76
0.76
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.80
0.60
1.00
0.27
0.64
0.86
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Laval) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Laval
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.83
0.85
1.00
0.65
0.71
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
1.43
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.40
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.68
0.91
0.91
0.55
0.45
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
0.00
-
-
5.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Rodez) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Rodez over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rodez over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rodez over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laval over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laval over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Laval over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Under 3.5
80.9%
1.32
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Betfair
1.33
10Bet
1.33
+9.8%
âś— Miss
Over 2.5 cards
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
78.1%
1.34
Superbet
1.39
Betano
1.35
Unibet
1.35
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.28
+9.6%
âś— Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś— Miss
Under 5.5 cards
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
âś“ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đź’° 14. Squad value
đź’° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SE (30)
€93m
NAN (25)
€82m
REI (30)
€72m
MET (26)
€43m
MON (24)
€29m
ROD (23)
€15m
CF (21)
€15m
RSF (22)
€15m
PAU (20)
€14m
NAN (26)
€13m
GRE (27)
€12m
GUI (20)
€11m
DUN (21)
€11m
ANN (21)
€10m
LAV (24)
€9m
BOU (23)
€8m
SOC (20)
€7m
DIJ (20)
€5m
Rodez's squad is €6m more valuable than Laval's (€15m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SE (10)
€54m
REI (12)
€38m
NAN (8)
€31m
MET (11)
€17m
MON (9)
€11m
PAU (6)
€6m
GRE (12)
€5m
NAN (9)
€5m
DUN (7)
€4m
RSF (6)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
GUI (4)
€3m
ANN (7)
€3m
SOC (8)
€3m
BOU (6)
€2m
CF (5)
€2m
LAV (7)
€2m
DIJ (7)
€1m
Rodez's attack is €2m more valuable than Laval's (€4m vs €2m).
🧠Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MET (5)
€18m
NAN (7)
€16m
REI (6)
€13m
SE (7)
€11m
MON (5)
€6m
GUI (8)
€4m
ROD (6)
€4m
RSF (5)
€3m
ANN (6)
€3m
LAV (7)
€3m
GRE (5)
€3m
CF (4)
€3m
BOU (6)
€3m
NAN (6)
€2m
PAU (4)
€2m
DIJ (6)
€2m
DUN (5)
€1m
SOC (3)
€1m
Rodez's midfield is €1m more valuable than Laval's (€4m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAN (10)
€34m
SE (13)
€28m
REI (12)
€21m
MON (10)
€12m
CF (12)
€10m
MET (10)
€8m
ROD (10)
€7m
RSF (11)
€7m
NAN (11)
€6m
PAU (10)
€6m
DUN (9)
€5m
LAV (10)
€4m
ANN (8)
€4m
GRE (10)
€4m
SOC (9)
€3m
BOU (11)
€3m
GUI (8)
€3m
DIJ (7)
€2m
Rodez's defence is €3m more valuable than Laval's (€7m vs €4m).
France: Ligue 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Saint Etienne
Reims
Montpellier
Nancy
Annecy
Metz
RED Star FC 93
Sochaux
Dunkerque
Guingamp
PAU
Grenoble
Boulogne
Clermont Foot
Dijon
Nantes