Santa Clara's recent 1-0 win over Academico Viseu is a welcome boost, but they've struggled to contain opponents at home, conceding an average of 1.0 goals per match. Famalicao, meanwhile, have been solid away from home, scoring 0.83 goals and conceding 1.5 per match against similar opponents.
The model predicts a low-scoring match, with an expected total of 2.1 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.8% chance of occurrence. The model's selection is a home win, with a 34% chance of success.
Santa Clara's home form is marked by a 0.86 average goal scoring rate, while Famalicao's away form sees them score 0.83 goals per match against similar opponents. The model suggests a 34% chance of an away win and a 33% chance of a draw.
The model's selections include an Over 21.5 fouls pick with a 94.1% chance, an Under 3.5 pick with an 83.6% chance, and an Over 3.5 cards pick with a 79.6% chance. The home win percentage is 34%, the draw percentage is 33%, and the away win percentage is 34%.
Results analysis
The win extends Santa Claraâs two-game winning run, as the home side edged Famalicao 1-0. The modelâs favourite, Home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 34 %. The final score matched the expected 1-0 outcome, confirming the favoured result. Every model selection hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.8 %, Under 6.5 at 99.4 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.5 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.5 %, Under 5.5 at 97.9 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.8 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.7 %, and Over 19.5 fouls at 97.5 %. The matchâs low-scoring nature and high foul count aligned perfectly with the modelâs predictions.
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đŻ 1. Model Analysis
Santa Clara winâ Hit
34.0%
Avg Implied 33.9% · @ 2.77
Edge
+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.90
Pinnacle
2.90
Bet365
2.88
Dafabet
2.85
Superbet
2.82
Drawâ Miss
32.3%
Avg Implied 32.4% · @ 2.89
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.00
Unibet
3.00
Pinnacle
2.97
Betano
2.95
Dafabet
2.95
Famalicao winâ Miss
33.7%
Avg Implied 33.6% · @ 2.79
Edge
+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.95
1xBet
2.88
10Bet
2.86
Pinnacle
2.85
Dafabet
2.85
✠2. Goal Analysis
Santa Clara
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.17
1.31
1.06
0.93
1.29
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
1.75
1.20
1.60
0.67
2.00
vs Similar (22)
1.18
0.95
1.36
0.82
1.00
1.09
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Famalicao) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Famalicao
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.10
1.71
0.86
0.94
1.31
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
1.88
1.00
1.67
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (14)
1.29
0.86
1.80
0.20
1.00
1.22
vs Weaker (8)
1.62
0.75
2.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Santa Clara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
64.4%
@ 1.56+4.1%
Under 1.5
35.6%
@ 2.37-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
Superbet
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.58
SBO
1.58
Under
10Bet
2.55
1xBet
2.45
Betfair
2.45
Pinnacle
2.44
Unibet
2.38
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
36.1%
@ 2.70+1.3%
Under 2.5
63.9%
@ 1.44-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.88
Betano
2.85
Superbet
2.85
Pinnacle
2.79
1xBet
2.72
Under
10Bet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.46
Betano
1.45
BetVictor
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.9%
@ 5.45-0.3%
Under 3.5
83.1%
@ 1.13+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.80
Pinnacle
5.55
888Sport
5.50
Under
10Bet
1.18
Pinnacle
1.15
Betano
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
44.5%
@ 2.15+1.1%
No
55.5%
@ 1.64-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
2.25
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.20
BetVictor
2.15
Betfair
2.15
No
10Bet
1.73
Betfair
1.67
William Hil
1.65
Unibet
1.65
888Sport
1.65
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%@ 5.47+6.7%
0-0
13.1%@ 5.95+5.6%
1-0 â
11.3%@ 6.02+3.9%
0-1
11.2%@ 6.01+3.8%
2-1
7.2%@ 10.41+3.0%
1-2
7.2%@ 10.36+2.9%
2-0
6.8%@ 11.71+3.0%
0-2
6.7%@ 11.56+2.8%
Santa Clara goals ↓
Famalicao goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
11%
6.7%
2.4%
0.6%
1
11%
15%
7.2%
2.6%
0.7%
2
6.8%
7.2%
3.9%
1.4%
0.4%
3
2.4%
2.6%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.6%
0.7%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Santa Clara goals (down), columns = Famalicao goals (across).
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đȘ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
đ Total PPG
Points / game
FC Porto
2.59
Sporting CP
2.41
Benfica
2.35
SC Braga
1.74
Famalicao
1.65
GIL Vicente
1.47
Moreirense
1.26
Arouca
1.24
Guimaraes
1.24
Estoril
1.15
Alverca
1.15
Maritimo
1.12
Academico Viseu
1.10
Rio Ave
1.06
Santa Clara
1.06
Nacional
1.00
Casa Pia
0.94
Estrela
0.88
Santa Clara is 0.59 points worse than Famalicao in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 1.65).
âïž Attack
Goals scored / game
Sporting CP
2.62
Benfica
2.18
FC Porto
1.94
SC Braga
1.88
Estoril
1.59
Arouca
1.38
GIL Vicente
1.38
Famalicao
1.24
Guimaraes
1.15
Estrela
1.12
Moreirense
1.09
Nacional
1.09
Maritimo
1.08
Academico Viseu
1.06
Rio Ave
1.03
Alverca
1.03
Santa Clara
0.94
Casa Pia
0.92
Santa Clara is 0.29 goals worse than Famalicao in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 1.24).
đĄïž Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.53
Sporting CP
0.71
Benfica
0.74
Famalicao
0.85
SC Braga
1.06
GIL Vicente
1.12
Santa Clara
1.21
Nacional
1.32
Moreirense
1.44
Guimaraes
1.50
Alverca
1.53
Maritimo
1.55
Academico Viseu
1.58
Casa Pia
1.58
Estrela
1.65
Estoril
1.68
Rio Ave
1.68
Arouca
1.88
Santa Clara is 0.35 goals worse than Famalicao in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 0.85).
â±ïž Possession
Avg possession %
SC Braga
63%
Sporting CP
62%
Benfica
58%
FC Porto
55%
Estoril
53%
Guimaraes
51%
Famalicao
51%
Arouca
50%
GIL Vicente
50%
Moreirense
50%
Santa Clara
48%
Rio Ave
47%
Estrela
47%
Nacional
46%
Alverca
45%
Casa Pia
41%
Santa Clara is 2.9 percentage points worse than Famalicao in terms of average possession (48% vs 51%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Santa Clara or Drawâ Hit
66.3%
Avg Implied 66.3% · @ 1.41
Edge
+0.0%
34%
32%
34%
covers Santa Clara + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.45
William Hil
1.44
888Sport
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Santa Clara or Famalicaoâ Hit
67.4%
Avg Implied 67.7% · @ 1.38
Edge
-0.3%
34%
32%
34%
covers Santa Clara + Famalicao
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.44
Superbet
1.42
William Hil
1.40
888Sport
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Draw or Famalicaoâ Miss
66.3%
Avg Implied 66.0% · @ 1.42
Edge
+0.3%
34%
32%
34%
covers Draw + Famalicao
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.45
Unibet
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Superbet
1.43
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đ„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Santa Clara over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
65.1%
@ 1.45+0.9%
Under
34.9%
@ 2.60-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.50
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.50
Betfair
1.50
1xBet
1.46
Under
10Bet
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Unibet
2.70
Pinnacle
2.69
Betfair
2.63
Santa Clara over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
28.4%
@ 3.21-0.7%
Under
71.6%
@ 1.32+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.49
Betfair
3.40
Superbet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
BetVictor
3.30
Under
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.35
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.31
Santa Clara over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.0%
@ 8.47-2.0%
Under
91.0%
@ 1.05+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
10.00
Marathonbet
9.30
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
9.00
1xBet
8.90
Under
BetVictor
1.07
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.07
Betfair
1.05
Santa Clara over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 22.25-2.1%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.01+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
29.00
Superbet
25.00
Bet365
23.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Famalicao over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
65.2%
@ 1.46+1.5%
Under
34.8%
@ 2.56-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
1xBet
1.48
Unibet
1.46
Under
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.72
Bet365
2.62
10Bet
2.60
BetVictor
2.55
Famalicao over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
28.4%
@ 3.26-0.2%
Under
71.6%
@ 1.31+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.45
Superbet
3.35
888Sport
3.30
Marathonbet
3.28
Betano
3.25
Under
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Pinnacle
1.31
Betano
1.31
Famalicao over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.1%
@ 8.69-1.7%
Under
90.9%
@ 1.05+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
10.00
Marathonbet
9.20
1xBet
9.10
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
9.00
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Famalicao over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 23.12-1.9%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
29.00
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
25.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
âïž 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Santa Clara, so a minus line means Santa Clara give that many goals of a start and Famalicao receive them. At -1, Santa Clara must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Santa Clara win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Santa Clara)Actual: Famalicao
Santa Clara -2
4.1%
@ 15.40-1.8%
Draw -2
9.6%
@ 7.98-1.8%
Famalicao +2
86.3%
@ 1.10+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
19.00
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
13.00
Unibet
12.00
Draw
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
9.00
Superbet
7.40
Unibet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Away
Unibet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.09
Betfair
1.06
Handicap -1 (Santa Clara)Actual: Draw
Santa Clara -1
13.7%
@ 6.19-0.8%
Draw -1
20.0%
@ 4.01-2.4%
Famalicao +1
66.3%
@ 1.42+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.40
Superbet
6.00
10Bet
5.50
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.25
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
4.00
10Bet
3.80
Away
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.47
Superbet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Handicap +1 (Santa Clara)Actual: Santa Clara
Santa Clara +1
66.3%
@ 1.40+2.0%
Draw +1
20.0%
@ 4.11-1.9%
Famalicao -1
13.7%
@ 6.48-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.20
Superbet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Unibet
4.00
Away
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
6.40
Marathonbet
6.35
10Bet
6.25
Handicap +2 (Santa Clara)Actual: Santa Clara
Santa Clara +2
86.3%
@ 1.08+2.2%
Draw +2
9.6%
@ 8.50-1.0%
Famalicao -2
4.1%
@ 17.33-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Draw
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
9.00
10Bet
7.50
Away
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
18.00
10Bet
15.00
â±ïž 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Santa Clara
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.67
0.56
0.56
0.50
0.79
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.12
0.40
1.00
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (22)
0.59
0.50
0.64
0.36
0.55
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Famalicao) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Famalicao
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.50
0.64
0.57
0.44
0.44
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.12
0.33
1.33
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.21
0.60
0.20
0.44
0.22
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
0.38
0.83
0.50
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Santa Clara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
66.3%
@ 1.58+7.3%
Under 0.5
33.7%
@ 2.27-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.60
Under
10Bet
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Pinnacle
2.35
SBO
2.33
Unibet
2.30
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
28.7%
@ 3.80+4.2%
Under 1.5
71.3%
@ 1.23-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
4.05
Superbet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
William Hil
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Under
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.24
William Hil
1.22
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
9.2%
@ 10.39+0.1%
Under 2.5
90.8%
@ 1.04-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
13.00
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
11.00
Betfair
11.00
Marathonbet
9.90
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
William Hil
1.04
Superbet
1.04
đ„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Santa Clara over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
40.7%
@ 2.47+3.0%
Under
59.3%
@ 1.50-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.60
Superbet
2.55
Betano
2.55
1xBet
2.55
Marathonbet
2.51
Under
10Bet
1.60
Unibet
1.54
Pinnacle
1.51
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.45
Santa Clara over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.9%
@ 9.10-1.3%
Under
91.1%
@ 1.03+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.50
1xBet
9.00
Superbet
8.90
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
Santa Clara over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 38.00-98.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
38.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Famalicao over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
41.7%
@ 2.51+4.6%
Under
58.3%
@ 1.48-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.59
Betano
2.57
Superbet
2.55
Marathonbet
2.51
1xBet
2.50
Under
10Bet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.51
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.47
Unibet
1.46
Famalicao over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.5%
@ 9.22-0.6%
Under
90.5%
@ 1.04+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.50
1xBet
9.50
Superbet
8.90
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
Famalicao over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 38.00-98.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
38.00
Under
No market prices yet.
â±ïž 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Santa Clara
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.43
0.50
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.62
0.80
0.60
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (22)
0.59
0.45
0.73
0.45
0.45
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Famalicao) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Famalicao
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.60
1.07
0.29
0.50
0.88
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
0.75
0.67
0.33
0.60
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.64
1.20
0.00
0.56
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
0.38
1.17
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Santa Clara) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
75.3%
@ 1.39+8.0%
Under 0.5
24.7%
@ 2.84-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.42
Betano
1.40
888Sport
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Marathonbet
1.36
Under
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.89
1xBet
2.89
Betano
2.87
Superbet
2.80
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
37.5%
@ 2.79+4.2%
Under 1.5
62.5%
@ 1.39-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.92
William Hil
2.88
Betano
2.80
888Sport
2.80
Marathonbet
2.77
Under
Betano
1.42
Unibet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
888Sport
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.0%
@ 7.10+0.8%
Under 2.5
86.0%
@ 1.08-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
7.50
888Sport
7.50
Superbet
7.40
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.95
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.08
888Sport
1.08
Superbet
1.08
đ„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Santa Clara over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
49.4%
@ 2.09+5.2%
Under
50.6%
@ 1.66-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.15
Betano
2.10
Marathonbet
2.06
1xBet
2.06
Under
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
Superbet
1.63
Santa Clara over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.7%
@ 6.75+2.0%
Under
84.3%
@ 1.07-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.10
Marathonbet
7.10
Superbet
6.80
Betano
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Santa Clara over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 17.50-2.6%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.02+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Famalicao over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
46.2%
@ 2.08+1.7%
Under
53.8%
@ 1.67-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.15
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.05
1xBet
2.05
Under
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Superbet
1.63
Famalicao over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.7%
@ 6.72-1.1%
Under
87.3%
@ 1.07+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.10
Marathonbet
7.10
Superbet
6.70
Betano
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Famalicao over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.5%
@ 17.50-3.0%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.02+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
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đ„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 6.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 5.5
97.9%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
+1.8%
â Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
888Sport
1.01
-
-
+2.1%
â Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+1.9%
â Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.5%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.0%
â Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.6%
â Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 4.5
93.7%
1.03
10Bet
1.05
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
+1.9%
â Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.1%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
-
+1.3%
â Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
91.0%
1.05
BetVictor
1.07
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.07
Betfair
1.05
+2.0%
â Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
90.9%
1.05
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Superbet
1.05
+1.7%
â Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.8%
1.04
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
William Hil
1.04
Superbet
1.04
-0.1%
â Hit
Over 2.5 cards
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.5%
1.04
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.01
-
+0.6%
â Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.3%
1.07
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
-
+1.1%
â Hit
Away +2 handicap
86.3%
1.10
Unibet
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.09
Betfair
1.06
+3.6%
â Hit
Home +2 handicap
86.3%
1.08
Bet365
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
-
-
+2.2%
â Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
86.0%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
William Hil
1.08
888Sport
1.08
Superbet
1.08
-0.8%
â Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.3%
1.07
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
-
-2.0%
â Hit
Under 3.5
83.1%
1.13
10Bet
1.18
Pinnacle
1.15
Betano
1.15
Unibet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
+0.3%
â Hit
Over 3.5 cards
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.3%
1.39
Superbet
1.42
Betano
1.40
888Sport
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Marathonbet
1.36
+8.0%
â Miss
Under 11.5 corners
75.3%
1.26
Superbet
1.30
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.27
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
+3.2%
â Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
71.6%
1.32
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.35
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.31
+0.7%
â Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
71.6%
1.31
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Pinnacle
1.31
Betano
1.31
+0.2%
â Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
71.3%
1.23
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.24
William Hil
1.22
-4.2%
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đ° 14. Squad value
đ° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
EST (25)
€42m
ALV (30)
€39m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
ARO (25)
€28m
CP (29)
€27m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
EST (22)
€20m
NAC (31)
€20m
AV (27)
€16m
MAR (27)
€16m
Santa Clara's squad is €30m less valuable than Famalicao's (€27m vs €57m).
âïž Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
EST (8)
€24m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
ALV (8)
€15m
ARO (11)
€11m
GV (12)
€11m
CP (11)
€9m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
AV (11)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
EST (6)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
Santa Clara's attack is €7m less valuable than Famalicao's (€9m vs €16m).
đ§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
EST (5)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
ARO (4)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
ALV (8)
€6m
CP (7)
€6m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
EST (5)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
Santa Clara's midfield is €14m less valuable than Famalicao's (€6m vs €20m).
đĄïž Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
ALV (14)
€18m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
CP (11)
€12m
EST (11)
€11m
GV (10)
€11m
EST (12)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
ARO (10)
€8m
MAR (11)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
Santa Clara's defence is €9m less valuable than Famalicao's (€12m vs €22m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Porto
Sporting CP
Arouca
Benfica
GIL Vicente
Maritimo
Estrela
SC Braga
Nacional
Moreirense
Guimaraes
Rio Ave
Academico Viseu
Alverca
Estoril
Casa Pia