Sassuolo are tipped to win, a 43% chance that outweighs the 28% draw and 29% Torino win. The model expects 2.6 goals, with the most likely total of 2 goals at 26%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 13.6% chance. Sassuolo, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, average 1.55 goals scored and 1.18 conceded. Torino, on the road, average 0.9 scored and 1.7 conceded against similar teams. The model’s picks include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.9% with a 6% edge), Under 6.5 (98.1% with a 2% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.0% with a 6% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (96.8% with a 2% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.7% with a 5% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.3% with a 5% edge) and Under 5.5 (94.7% with a 2% edge). Sassuolo’s recent five games show four losses and a win, while Torino’s last five include a defeat, both ending 1-2.
Results analysis
Sassuolo’s win extends their recent run, finishing the last five games with a victory that keeps momentum alive. The model’s favourite, a Home win, came through as the final score was 2-1, confirming the prediction. The pre-match probability for a home win was 44%. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 hit at 99.4%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.7%, Under 6.5 at 98.1%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.9%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.0%, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.8%, Under 5.5 at 94.7%, and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.6%. All eight picks settled in favour of the model’s choices.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Sassuolo win✓ Hit
43.6%
Avg Implied 41.6% · @ 2.28
Edge
+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.37
Pinnacle
2.35
Dafabet
2.32
Marathonbet
2.32
BetVictor
2.30
Draw✗ Miss
28.3%
Avg Implied 29.2% · @ 3.25
Edge
-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.36
Unibet
3.30
Dafabet
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Superbet
3.30
Torino win✗ Miss
28.1%
Avg Implied 29.2% · @ 3.25
Edge
-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.38
Pinnacle
3.38
Dafabet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.30
Bet365
3.30
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Sassuolo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.40
1.40
1.47
1.07
1.33
vs Stronger (10)
1.10
1.70
1.00
2.25
1.17
1.33
vs Similar (20)
1.30
1.25
1.55
1.18
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Torino) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torino
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.70
1.56
1.69
0.86
1.71
vs Stronger (10)
1.20
1.80
1.50
1.83
0.75
1.75
vs Similar (20)
1.25
1.65
1.60
1.60
0.90
1.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Sassuolo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.9%
@ 1.32+3.8%
Under 1.5
25.1%
@ 3.26-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
BetVictor
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
Superbet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Under
Bet365
3.50
Pinnacle
3.46
Superbet
3.35
Unibet
3.30
10Bet
3.25
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.7%
@ 2.04+2.0%
Under 2.5
51.3%
@ 1.79-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.12
Pinnacle
2.10
Betano
2.07
Marathonbet
2.06
SBO
2.05
Under
1xBet
1.84
SBO
1.81
Pinnacle
1.81
Superbet
1.80
Betano
1.80
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.9%
@ 3.48-0.1%
Under 3.5
73.1%
@ 1.29+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.62
Unibet
3.60
Betano
3.55
Superbet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.9%
@ 1.76+0.9%
No
46.1%
@ 1.98-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.80
Unibet
1.79
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
No
10Bet
2.00
BetVictor
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Bet365
2.00
William Hil
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%@ 5.93+5.9%
1-0
9.5%@ 7.16+3.2%
2-1 ✓
9.1%@ 8.47+3.7%
0-0
8.5%@ 9.08+3.5%
2-0
7.9%@ 10.54+3.6%
0-1
7.1%@ 8.94+2.0%
1-2
7.0%@ 10.44+2.7%
2-2
5.2%@ 12.99+1.7%
Sassuolo goals ↓
Torino goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
7.1%
4.8%
1.8%
0.5%
1
9.5%
14%
7.0%
2.7%
0.8%
2
7.9%
9.1%
5.2%
2.0%
0.6%
3
3.9%
4.5%
2.6%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.4%
1.6%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sassuolo goals (down), columns = Torino goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter
2.29
Napoli
2.00
AS Roma
1.92
Como
1.87
AC Milan
1.84
Juventus
1.82
Atalanta
1.55
Bologna
1.47
Lazio
1.42
Udinese
1.32
Sassuolo
1.29
Torino
1.18
Parma
1.18
Cagliari
1.13
Venezia
1.12
Fiorentina
1.11
Genoa
1.08
Frosinone
1.03
Monza
1.01
Lecce
1.00
Sassuolo is 0.11 points better than Torino in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter
2.34
Como
1.71
Juventus
1.61
AS Roma
1.55
Napoli
1.53
AC Milan
1.39
Atalanta
1.34
Bologna
1.29
Sassuolo
1.21
Udinese
1.18
Torino
1.16
Lazio
1.08
Genoa
1.08
Fiorentina
1.08
Cagliari
1.05
Venezia
1.00
Frosinone
0.91
Monza
0.90
Lecce
0.74
Parma
0.74
Sassuolo is 0.05 goals better than Torino in terms of goals scored per game (1.21 vs 1.16).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Como
0.76
AS Roma
0.82
Juventus
0.89
AC Milan
0.92
Inter
0.92
Napoli
0.95
Atalanta
0.95
Lazio
1.05
Parma
1.21
Bologna
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Fiorentina
1.32
Sassuolo
1.32
Lecce
1.32
Genoa
1.34
Cagliari
1.39
Venezia
1.48
Frosinone
1.62
Monza
1.64
Torino
1.66
Sassuolo is 0.34 goals better than Torino in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 1.66).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Como
62%
Inter
60%
Napoli
59%
Juventus
58%
AS Roma
56%
Atalanta
55%
Bologna
55%
AC Milan
52%
Fiorentina
51%
Lazio
50%
Genoa
49%
Sassuolo
46%
Udinese
46%
Cagliari
46%
Torino
44%
Parma
44%
Lecce
42%
Sassuolo is 2.0 percentage points better than Torino in terms of average possession (46% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Sassuolo
For 3.2 · Against 5.4 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 11.2 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Torino
For 3.5 · Against 4.7 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 10.4 · Total 22.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sassuolo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.4
8.6
4.1
4.1
4.1
24.5
24.7
24.4
vs Stronger (13)
8.8
8.8
8.9
3.5
4.5
2.6
22.8
24.5
21.3
vs Similar (31)
9.2
9.8
8.5
4.4
3.9
4.9
25.4
24.8
26.0
vs Weaker (6)
8.5
8.3
8.7
4.2
4.3
4.0
24.0
24.3
23.7
% over line
50%
60%
40%
62%
56%
68%
66%
68%
64%
% under line
50%
40%
60%
38%
44%
32%
34%
32%
36%
This opponent (Torino) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torino
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
8.8
8.2
3.3
3.1
3.5
24.4
23.6
25.2
vs Stronger (19)
8.8
8.2
9.4
3.1
2.7
3.6
22.0
20.5
23.7
vs Similar (31)
8.4
9.1
7.5
3.4
3.3
3.5
25.8
25.5
26.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
42%
46%
38%
42%
38%
46%
66%
65%
67%
% under line
58%
54%
62%
58%
62%
54%
34%
35%
33%
This opponent (Sassuolo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Frosinone
10.2
Lecce
9.9
Juventus
9.7
Bologna
9.4
Udinese
9.3
Atalanta
9.3
Inter
9.3
Monza
9.0
Sassuolo
9.0
Venezia
9.0
Fiorentina
8.8
Cagliari
8.8
Lazio
8.7
AS Roma
8.6
Genoa
8.6
AC Milan
8.6
Torino
8.5
Parma
8.5
Napoli
8.4
Como
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lazio
5.4
Fiorentina
4.9
Frosinone
4.8
Como
4.6
Monza
4.5
Genoa
4.4
Sassuolo
4.3
Venezia
4.3
AS Roma
4.2
Bologna
4.1
Cagliari
3.9
Parma
3.9
Lecce
3.8
Udinese
3.8
AC Milan
3.7
Juventus
3.7
Atalanta
3.6
Napoli
3.4
Torino
3.4
Inter
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Frosinone
30.2
Venezia
29.6
Bologna
28.5
Fiorentina
28.3
AS Roma
28.2
Monza
27.4
Genoa
27.3
Cagliari
27.2
Como
26.3
Lecce
25.5
Udinese
25.1
Lazio
25.0
Sassuolo
24.5
Torino
24.4
Parma
24.4
Inter
24.1
Napoli
23.5
Juventus
23.3
Atalanta
21.9
AC Milan
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
34.5%
@ 2.16-8.5%
Under 9.5
65.5%
@ 1.63+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.32
Betfair
2.25
Pinnacle
2.19
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.13
Under
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
Unibet
1.64
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
51.2%
@ 2.10+6.8%
Under 3.5
48.8%
@ 1.68-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.30
Betano
2.20
Pinnacle
2.13
Bet365
2.10
Unibet
2.05
Under
1xBet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.73
Unibet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.62
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
69.1%
@ 1.48+7.7%
Under 21.5
30.9%
@ 2.36-7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.48
Under
1xBet
2.36
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Sassuolo or Draw✓ Hit
70.8%
Avg Implied 70.7% · @ 1.33
Edge
+0.1%
44%
28%
28%
covers Sassuolo + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.37
Betano
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Unibet
1.34
Sassuolo or Torino✓ Hit
71.8%
Avg Implied 71.3% · @ 1.32
Edge
+0.4%
44%
28%
28%
covers Sassuolo + Torino
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.37
Superbet
1.35
Betano
1.33
William Hil
1.33
Draw or Torino✗ Miss
57.4%
Avg Implied 58.0% · @ 1.63
Edge
-0.5%
44%
28%
28%
covers Draw + Torino
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.66
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
1xBet
1.65
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Sassuolo over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.0%
@ 1.25+2.3%
Under
23.0%
@ 3.68-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Under
Betfair
4.00
Pinnacle
3.90
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.64
Sassuolo over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
43.1%
@ 2.25+1.6%
Under
56.9%
@ 1.60-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.37
Marathonbet
2.33
BetVictor
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Betano
2.25
Under
1xBet
1.63
Pinnacle
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
Superbet
1.60
Sassuolo over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.3%
@ 5.08-0.0%
Under
81.7%
@ 1.14+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.30
1xBet
5.30
BetVictor
5.25
Bet365
5.00
Under
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Sassuolo over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.2%
@ 11.62-2.0%
Under
93.8%
@ 1.04+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
12.00
Marathonbet
12.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Torino over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
69.3%
@ 1.38+1.7%
Under
30.7%
@ 2.87-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
1xBet
1.40
Superbet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Under
Pinnacle
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Betfair
3.00
BetVictor
2.88
Superbet
2.85
Torino over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
33.0%
@ 2.87+0.4%
Under
67.0%
@ 1.38-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.05
Marathonbet
2.97
BetVictor
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Unibet
2.85
Under
1xBet
1.41
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Superbet
1.39
Torino over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.6%
@ 7.33-1.1%
Under
88.4%
@ 1.07+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
1xBet
7.90
Marathonbet
7.90
10Bet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
Torino over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.2%
@ 17.08-2.4%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.01+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Sassuolo, so a minus line means Sassuolo give that many goals of a start and Torino receive them. At -1, Sassuolo must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Sassuolo win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Sassuolo)Actual: Torino
Sassuolo -2
8.3%
@ 9.59-1.0%
Draw -2
13.1%
@ 6.08-1.6%
Torino +2
78.6%
@ 1.18+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
9.60
Unibet
9.50
10Bet
9.50
Draw
Betfair
7.00
Superbet
6.50
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
6.00
Unibet
6.00
Away
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
Handicap -1 (Sassuolo)Actual: Draw
Sassuolo -1
21.4%
@ 4.33+0.6%
Draw -1
21.2%
@ 3.84-2.3%
Torino +1
57.4%
@ 1.62+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
Superbet
4.35
10Bet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Draw
Marathonbet
4.05
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Unibet
3.70
10Bet
3.70
Away
Marathonbet
1.65
Superbet
1.64
Unibet
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Handicap +1 (Sassuolo)Actual: Sassuolo
Sassuolo +1
70.8%
@ 1.33+2.8%
Draw +1
16.8%
@ 4.75-2.3%
Torino -1
12.4%
@ 6.98-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Unibet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
Unibet
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Away
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
7.20
10Bet
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Superbet
6.70
Handicap +2 (Sassuolo)Actual: Sassuolo
Sassuolo +2
87.6%
@ 1.07+2.7%
Draw +2
8.5%
@ 9.12-1.5%
Torino -2
4.0%
@ 18.00-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
10.00
Unibet
8.50
10Bet
8.00
Away
Betfair
21.00
Bet365
19.00
10Bet
17.00
Unibet
15.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Sassuolo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.67
0.80
0.80
0.33
0.53
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
0.70
0.50
0.75
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.65
0.91
0.82
0.33
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Torino) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torino
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.73
0.69
0.62
0.29
0.86
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
0.70
0.50
0.67
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.75
0.80
0.60
0.30
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Sassuolo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.7%
@ 1.42+1.8%
Under 0.5
32.3%
@ 2.75-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
Superbet
1.44
BetVictor
1.43
Under
Pinnacle
2.94
William Hil
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.82
Bet365
2.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
31.5%
@ 2.93-0.4%
Under 1.5
68.5%
@ 1.38+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.07
Marathonbet
3.05
Betano
3.05
1xBet
3.05
Betfair
3.00
Under
Superbet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
BetVictor
1.39
Pinnacle
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.2%
@ 7.64-2.0%
Under 2.5
89.8%
@ 1.06+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.10
1xBet
8.10
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
BetVictor
8.00
Under
Superbet
1.09
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
10Bet
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sassuolo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
48.5%
@ 2.01+2.3%
Under
51.5%
@ 1.73-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.04
Marathonbet
2.03
1xBet
2.03
10Bet
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.79
10Bet
1.75
Superbet
1.74
Betano
1.72
Unibet
1.71
Sassuolo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.5%
@ 6.30-2.3%
Under
87.5%
@ 1.09+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.85
1xBet
6.85
10Bet
6.25
Betano
6.00
Unibet
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Sassuolo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.0%
@ 15.50-3.2%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.02+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Torino over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
35.2%
@ 2.34-4.6%
Under
64.8%
@ 1.55+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.43
Marathonbet
2.36
1xBet
2.36
Betano
2.35
Unibet
2.32
Under
10Bet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.57
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.54
Unibet
1.53
Torino over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.9%
@ 8.00-3.7%
Under
92.1%
@ 1.05+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.30
1xBet
9.30
Superbet
7.70
Unibet
7.50
Betano
7.20
Under
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
Torino over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.3%
@ 21.00-3.3%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.01+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
29.00
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Sassuolo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.73
0.60
0.67
0.73
0.80
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.83
0.67
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.60
0.64
0.36
0.67
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Torino) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Torino
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.97
0.88
1.06
0.57
0.86
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
1.10
1.00
1.17
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.90
0.80
1.00
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Sassuolo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.5%
@ 1.25+1.8%
Under 0.5
23.5%
@ 3.69-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Under
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.72
1xBet
3.72
10Bet
3.70
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
42.0%
@ 2.18-1.1%
Under 1.5
58.0%
@ 1.65+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.24
1xBet
2.24
William Hil
2.20
Betano
2.18
Under
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Superbet
1.65
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.1%
@ 4.74-2.6%
Under 2.5
82.9%
@ 1.16+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.00
Superbet
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
William Hil
4.80
Unibet
4.60
Under
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
10Bet
1.17
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sassuolo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
56.8%
@ 1.69+2.0%
Under
43.2%
@ 2.05-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.71
1xBet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
Betano
1.67
Under
Betano
2.10
1xBet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.04
Superbet
2.02
Sassuolo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
19.7%
@ 4.38-1.5%
Under
80.3%
@ 1.17+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.65
Superbet
4.45
1xBet
4.40
Betano
4.20
10Bet
4.20
Under
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Sassuolo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.4%
@ 11.38-2.9%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.02+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Torino over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
49.8%
@ 1.95+2.1%
Under
50.2%
@ 1.78-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.96
Superbet
1.95
Betano
1.95
Marathonbet
1.93
Under
Betano
1.80
Marathonbet
1.78
1xBet
1.77
Superbet
1.77
Torino over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.6%
@ 5.77-2.4%
Under
86.4%
@ 1.10+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.25
1xBet
5.90
10Bet
5.75
Superbet
5.65
Betano
5.30
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
Torino over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 15.12-4.2%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.1%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.0%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.8%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.7%
1.02
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Unibet
1.01
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
-
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.1%
1.05
10Bet
1.07
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.8%
1.06
Superbet
1.09
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
10Bet
1.07
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
88.4%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.6%
1.07
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.5%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
87.1%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.08
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.4%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
85.0%
1.19
Unibet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
+8.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.9%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.17
William Hil
1.17
10Bet
1.17
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
82.6%
1.14
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
-
-
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
81.7%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
+0.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.3%
1.17
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
78.6%
1.18
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
77.0%
1.25
1xBet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.5%
1.25
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
76.5%
1.35
Unibet
1.38
Betano
1.37
Superbet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
1xBet
1.34
+8.1%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.9%
1.32
Betano
1.36
BetVictor
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
Superbet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.1%
1.29
Pinnacle
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.30
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
71.9%
1.53
Superbet
1.58
Bet365
1.57
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.55
Unibet
1.47
+11.3%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.8%
1.32
1xBet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.37
Superbet
1.35
Betano
1.33
William Hil
1.33
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
70.8%
1.33
1xBet
1.37
Betano
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Unibet
1.34
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
70.8%
1.33
Marathonbet
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Unibet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
+2.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Sassuolo
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. Volpato50%
C. Odenthal33%
Vasilije Adžić33%
Luca Lipani33%
Benjamín Domínguez25%
Arijanet Murić0%
N. Matić0%
Armand Laurienté0%
K. Thorstvedt0%
Kieron Bowie0%
Josh Doig0%
F. Leysen0%
D. Bakola0%
Simone Cinquegrano0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
N. Matić33%
Armand Laurienté25%
C. Volpato25%
Arijanet Murić0%
K. Thorstvedt0%
Kieron Bowie0%
C. Odenthal0%
Josh Doig0%
F. Leysen0%
Vasilije Adžić0%
Luca Lipani0%
Benjamín Domínguez0%
D. Bakola0%
Simone Cinquegrano0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Josh Doig33%
F. Leysen33%
Vasilije Adžić33%
Simone Cinquegrano33%
D. Bakola25%
Arijanet Murić0%
N. Matić0%
Armand Laurienté0%
K. Thorstvedt0%
Kieron Bowie0%
C. Odenthal0%
C. Volpato0%
Luca Lipani0%
Benjamín Domínguez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Armand Laurienté75%
Kieron Bowie25%
Benjamín Domínguez25%
Arijanet Murić0%
N. Matić0%
K. Thorstvedt0%
C. Odenthal0%
Josh Doig0%
F. Leysen0%
Vasilije Adžić0%
C. Volpato0%
Luca Lipani0%
D. Bakola0%
Simone Cinquegrano0%
Torino
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Giovanni Simeone33%
Pietro Comuzzo33%
Zakaria Aboukhlal0%
Nikola Vlašić0%
Ardian Ismajli0%
Kian Fitz-Jim0%
Sandro Kulenović0%
Saúl Coco0%
Gvidas Gineitis0%
Diego Mascardi0%
Alessio Cacciamani0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gvidas Gineitis33%
Zakaria Aboukhlal0%
Nikola Vlašić0%
Ardian Ismajli0%
Giovanni Simeone0%
Kian Fitz-Jim0%
Sandro Kulenović0%
Saúl Coco0%
Pietro Comuzzo0%
Diego Mascardi0%
Alessio Cacciamani0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Gvidas Gineitis33%
Alessio Cacciamani33%
Zakaria Aboukhlal0%
Nikola Vlašić0%
Ardian Ismajli0%
Giovanni Simeone0%
Kian Fitz-Jim0%
Sandro Kulenović0%
Saúl Coco0%
Pietro Comuzzo0%
Diego Mascardi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Giovanni Simeone33%
Zakaria Aboukhlal0%
Nikola Vlašić0%
Ardian Ismajli0%
Kian Fitz-Jim0%
Sandro Kulenović0%
Saúl Coco0%
Gvidas Gineitis0%
Pietro Comuzzo0%
Diego Mascardi0%
Alessio Cacciamani0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
COM (34)
€488m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
PAR (28)
€142m
CAG (31)
€134m
VEN (36)
€117m
FRO (33)
€84m
LEC (31)
€72m
MON (29)
€70m
Sassuolo's squad is €51m more valuable than Torino's (€194m vs €144m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COM (13)
€261m
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
VEN (9)
€39m
PAR (8)
€35m
FRO (8)
€34m
MON (11)
€26m
LEC (9)
€20m
Sassuolo's attack is €46m more valuable than Torino's (€90m vs €43m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
COM (7)
€83m
PAR (8)
€60m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
VEN (11)
€31m
CAG (9)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
MON (7)
€24m
LEC (8)
€16m
Sassuolo's midfield is €7m more valuable than Torino's (€53m vs €46m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
COM (14)
€144m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
VEN (16)
€47m
PAR (12)
€46m
LEC (14)
€37m
FRO (14)
€24m
MON (11)
€20m
Sassuolo's defence is €2m less valuable than Torino's (€52m vs €54m).
Italy: Serie A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
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AS Roma
Inter
AC Milan
Juventus
Atalanta
Lazio
Udinese
Como
Frosinone
Napoli
Cagliari
Lecce
Bologna
Parma
Genoa
Monza
Venezia
Fiorentina