This opponent (Southend) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Southend
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.17
1.93
1.00
1.87
1.33
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.93
1.22
2.07
0.93
1.77
1.54
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.00
-
-
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Scunthorpe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
82.7%
Under 1.5
17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
60.0%
Under 2.5
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.7%
Under 3.5
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
62.0%
No
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
1-2
9.5%
0-2
7.2%
0-1
7.0%
2-1
6.9%
2-2
6.2%
1-3
5.7%
0-0
5.5%
Scunthorpe goals ↓
Southend goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
7.0%
7.2%
4.3%
1.9%
1
4.8%
12%
9.5%
5.7%
2.5%
2
3.9%
6.9%
6.2%
3.7%
1.7%
3
1.7%
3.0%
2.7%
1.6%
0.7%
4
0.6%
1.0%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Scunthorpe goals (down), columns = Southend goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
York
2.35
Rochdale
2.29
Carlisle
2.04
Boreham Wood
1.90
Scunthorpe
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Southend
1.72
Halifax
1.52
Hartlepool
1.48
Woking
1.37
Tamworth
1.35
Boston Utd
1.28
Altrincham
1.24
Solihull
1.22
Wealdstone
1.22
Yeovil
1.11
Gateshead
1.09
Eastleigh
1.09
Sutton
1.02
Aldershot
1.00
Brackley Town
0.91
Morecambe
0.83
Braintree Town
0.78
Truro
0.74
Scunthorpe is 0.05 points better than Southend in terms of average points per game (1.77 vs 1.72).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
York
2.48
Boreham Wood
2.00
Rochdale
1.92
Carlisle
1.87
Southend
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Scunthorpe
1.69
Solihull
1.54
Halifax
1.50
Woking
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Wealdstone
1.48
Morecambe
1.43
Boston Utd
1.37
Tamworth
1.37
Sutton
1.28
Eastleigh
1.24
Altrincham
1.20
Gateshead
1.17
Hartlepool
1.17
Yeovil
1.04
Truro
0.91
Brackley Town
0.87
Braintree Town
0.83
Scunthorpe is 0.08 goals worse than Southend in terms of goals scored per game (1.69 vs 1.77).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
York
0.89
Rochdale
0.92
Southend
1.02
Forest Green
1.11
Carlisle
1.11
Woking
1.17
Boreham Wood
1.24
Hartlepool
1.28
Scunthorpe
1.35
Altrincham
1.41
Halifax
1.43
Boston Utd
1.46
Yeovil
1.48
Tamworth
1.54
Solihull
1.57
Truro
1.57
Brackley Town
1.63
Braintree Town
1.65
Wealdstone
1.65
Sutton
1.72
Eastleigh
1.74
Aldershot
1.89
Gateshead
1.96
Morecambe
2.24
Scunthorpe is 0.33 goals worse than Southend in terms of goals conceded per game (1.35 vs 1.02).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
York
62%
Boreham Wood
58%
Wealdstone
57%
Rochdale
56%
Sutton
54%
Aldershot
54%
Forest Green
53%
Southend
52%
Altrincham
52%
Gateshead
50%
Woking
50%
Scunthorpe
49%
Morecambe
49%
Carlisle
49%
Solihull
48%
Braintree Town
48%
Halifax
48%
Hartlepool
47%
Yeovil
47%
Truro
44%
Eastleigh
41%
Brackley Town
40%
Tamworth
38%
Scunthorpe is 3.7 percentage points worse than Southend in terms of average possession (49% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Scunthorpe or Draw✓ Hit
52.3%
Avg Implied -
27%
25%
48%
covers Scunthorpe + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Scunthorpe or Southend✓ Hit
74.8%
Avg Implied -
27%
25%
48%
covers Scunthorpe + Southend
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Southend✗ Miss
73.0%
Avg Implied -
27%
25%
48%
covers Draw + Southend
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Scunthorpe over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.1%
Under
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Scunthorpe over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
37.8%
Under
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Scunthorpe over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.6%
Under
85.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Scunthorpe over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
83.4%
Under
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
53.6%
Under
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
26.8%
Under
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
10.8%
Under
89.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Scunthorpe, so a minus line means Scunthorpe give that many goals of a start and Southend receive them. At -1, Scunthorpe must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Scunthorpe win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Scunthorpe)Actual: Southend
Scunthorpe -2
4.1%
Draw -2
7.9%
Southend +2
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Scunthorpe)Actual: Draw
Scunthorpe -1
12.0%
Draw -1
15.0%
Southend +1
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Scunthorpe)Actual: Scunthorpe
Scunthorpe +1
52.3%
Draw +1
21.0%
Southend -1
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Scunthorpe)Actual: Scunthorpe
Scunthorpe +2
73.2%
Draw +2
14.8%
Southend -2
12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Scunthorpe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.87
0.60
0.87
0.73
0.87
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.58
0.92
0.54
0.92
0.62
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Southend
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.57
1.13
0.53
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.89
0.59
1.21
0.50
0.54
0.69
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Scunthorpe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Scunthorpe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Scunthorpe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Scunthorpe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Scunthorpe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.73
0.93
0.60
1.00
0.87
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.75
1.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.00
0.73
0.85
0.62
1.15
0.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Southend
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.60
0.80
0.47
1.27
0.73
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.04
0.63
0.86
0.43
1.23
0.85
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
-
-
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Scunthorpe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Scunthorpe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Scunthorpe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Scunthorpe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 3.5 goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ROC (10)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
BU (6)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
BT (3)
€0m
SCU (2)
€0m
TAM (4)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
TRU (2)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Scunthorpe and Southend have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ROC (3)
€1m
FG (2)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
BT (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
TRU (0)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
BT (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Scunthorpe and Southend have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
SOU (2)
€0m
BU (2)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
BT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
TRU (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
SCU (0)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
BT (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
Scunthorpe and Southend have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ROC (4)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
BU (3)
€0m
EAS (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
BT (3)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
TRU (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
TAM (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Scunthorpe and Southend have a similar defence value (both €0m).
England: National League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Rochdale
York
Carlisle
Boreham Wood
Forest Green
Halifax
Hartlepool
Woking
Tamworth
Boston Utd
Altrincham
Solihull
Wealdstone
Yeovil
Eastleigh
Gateshead
Sutton
Aldershot
Brackley Town
Morecambe
Braintree Town
Truro