Solihull’s recent five matches have ended in losses, while Boreham Wood arrives on a three-game winning streak, setting up a high-scoring encounter. The model favours an away win, giving Boreham Wood a 49% chance, Solihull 27%, and a draw 24%. The average goals expected is 3.4, with the most likely total of three goals at 22%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.2% chance. Boreham Wood’s away form shows an average of two goals scored and 1.5 conceded against weaker opposition, whereas Solihull’s home form is weaker, having conceded more than they scored in recent fixtures. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 86.7%, Over 2.5 cards at 80.9%, and Under 5.5 cards at 72.9%. The model’s selection for the match outcome is an away win, reflecting the higher probability for Boreham Wood.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, the model’s pick for an away win at 49 percent, failed to materialise as Solihull snatched a 4-1 victory, ending a five-game losing streak. The model’s call was wrong, but its other selections proved accurate. Over 1.5 goals, with an 86.7 percent chance, hit as the match produced four. Over 2.5 cards, at 80.9 percent, also hit, while Under 5.5 cards, at 72.9 percent, missed as the game saw more than five cards. Solihull’s win extends their run of defeats, whereas Boreham Wood’s three-game winning run was halted. The final score of 4-1 confirmed the home side’s dominance.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Solihull win✓ Hit
27.2%
Avg Implied 23.4% · @ 3.90
Edge
+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.6%
Avg Implied 23.4% · @ 3.90
Edge
+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood win✗ Miss
49.2%
Avg Implied 53.3% · @ 1.71
Edge
-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Solihull
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.57
2.07
1.60
1.20
1.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
-
-
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (28)
1.71
1.54
2.07
1.60
1.31
1.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Boreham Wood) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boreham Wood
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.47
2.25
1.44
2.00
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
2.00
1.67
2.00
1.67
-
-
vs Weaker (27)
2.15
1.44
2.31
1.38
2.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Solihull) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.7%
Under 1.5
13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.7%
@ 1.46+3.0%
Under 2.5
33.3%
@ 2.57-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
45.0%
Under 3.5
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.0%
No
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.2%
1-2
9.2%
2-1
6.7%
2-2
6.7%
0-2
6.4%
1-3
6.1%
0-1
5.5%
2-3
4.4%
Solihull goals ↓
Boreham Wood goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.1%
5.5%
6.4%
4.2%
2.1%
1
3.7%
10%
9.2%
6.1%
3.0%
2
3.4%
6.7%
6.7%
4.4%
2.2%
3
1.6%
3.2%
3.2%
2.1%
1.1%
4
0.6%
1.2%
1.2%
0.8%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Solihull goals (down), columns = Boreham Wood goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
York
2.35
Rochdale
2.29
Carlisle
2.04
Boreham Wood
1.90
Scunthorpe
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Southend
1.72
Halifax
1.52
Hartlepool
1.48
Woking
1.37
Tamworth
1.35
Boston Utd
1.28
Altrincham
1.24
Solihull
1.22
Wealdstone
1.22
Yeovil
1.11
Gateshead
1.09
Eastleigh
1.09
Sutton
1.02
Aldershot
1.00
Brackley Town
0.91
Morecambe
0.83
Braintree Town
0.78
Truro
0.74
Solihull is 0.68 points worse than Boreham Wood in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.90).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
York
2.48
Boreham Wood
2.00
Rochdale
1.92
Carlisle
1.87
Southend
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Scunthorpe
1.69
Solihull
1.54
Halifax
1.50
Woking
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Wealdstone
1.48
Morecambe
1.43
Boston Utd
1.37
Tamworth
1.37
Sutton
1.28
Eastleigh
1.24
Altrincham
1.20
Gateshead
1.17
Hartlepool
1.17
Yeovil
1.04
Truro
0.91
Brackley Town
0.87
Braintree Town
0.83
Solihull is 0.46 goals worse than Boreham Wood in terms of goals scored per game (1.54 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
York
0.89
Rochdale
0.92
Southend
1.02
Forest Green
1.11
Carlisle
1.11
Woking
1.17
Boreham Wood
1.24
Hartlepool
1.28
Scunthorpe
1.35
Altrincham
1.41
Halifax
1.43
Boston Utd
1.46
Yeovil
1.48
Tamworth
1.54
Solihull
1.57
Truro
1.57
Brackley Town
1.63
Braintree Town
1.65
Wealdstone
1.65
Sutton
1.72
Eastleigh
1.74
Aldershot
1.89
Gateshead
1.96
Morecambe
2.24
Solihull is 0.32 goals worse than Boreham Wood in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 1.24).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
York
62%
Boreham Wood
58%
Wealdstone
57%
Rochdale
56%
Sutton
54%
Aldershot
54%
Forest Green
53%
Southend
52%
Altrincham
52%
Gateshead
50%
Woking
50%
Scunthorpe
49%
Morecambe
49%
Carlisle
49%
Solihull
48%
Braintree Town
48%
Halifax
48%
Hartlepool
47%
Yeovil
47%
Truro
44%
Eastleigh
41%
Brackley Town
40%
Tamworth
38%
Solihull is 9.4 percentage points worse than Boreham Wood in terms of average possession (48% vs 58%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Solihull
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.47
1.20
0.53
0.60
0.40
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
-
-
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (28)
0.93
0.39
1.20
0.53
0.62
0.23
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Boreham Wood) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boreham Wood
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.63
1.25
0.62
0.93
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
1.33
0.67
1.33
0.67
-
-
vs Weaker (27)
1.07
0.63
1.23
0.62
0.93
0.64
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Solihull) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Solihull over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Solihull over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Solihull over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Solihull
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.10
0.87
1.07
0.60
1.13
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
-
-
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (28)
0.79
1.14
0.87
1.07
0.69
1.23
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Boreham Wood) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Boreham Wood
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.83
1.00
0.81
1.07
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.67
1.00
0.67
1.00
-
-
vs Weaker (27)
1.07
0.81
1.08
0.77
1.07
0.86
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Solihull) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Solihull over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Solihull over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Solihull over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Boreham Wood over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
England: National League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →