This opponent (Shelbourne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shelbourne
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.90
1.27
0.87
1.00
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (28)
1.21
0.86
1.36
0.93
1.07
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (St Patrick's Athl.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
65.2%
Under 1.5
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
37.0%
Under 2.5
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.5%
Under 3.5
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
44.4%
No
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
1-0
12.9%
0-0 â
12.7%
0-1
9.3%
2-0
8.8%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
6.1%
0-2
4.9%
St Patrick's Athl. goals ↓
Shelbourne goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
9.3%
4.9%
1.5%
0.4%
1
13%
14%
6.1%
1.9%
0.4%
2
8.8%
8.2%
3.8%
1.2%
0.3%
3
3.7%
3.4%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
4
1.1%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = St Patrick's Athl. goals (down), columns = Shelbourne goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.83
Derry City
1.75
Shelbourne
1.64
Bohemians
1.50
St Patrick's Athl.
1.44
Drogheda United
1.42
Sligo Rovers
1.14
Waterford
1.14
Galway United
1.08
Cork City
0.67
Bray Wanderers
0.00
St Patrick's Athl. is 0.19 points worse than Shelbourne in terms of average points per game (1.44 vs 1.64).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.56
Derry City
1.44
Shelbourne
1.33
Bohemians
1.33
Sligo Rovers
1.17
St Patrick's Athl.
1.17
Waterford
1.16
Drogheda United
1.06
Galway United
1.03
Bray Wanderers
1.00
Cork City
0.92
St Patrick's Athl. is 0.17 goals worse than Shelbourne in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.33).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Patrick's Athl.
0.89
Shamrock Rovers
0.92
Shelbourne
1.03
Drogheda United
1.06
Bohemians
1.08
Derry City
1.08
Galway United
1.22
Sligo Rovers
1.50
Waterford
1.65
Cork City
1.69
Bray Wanderers
2.00
St Patrick's Athl. is 0.14 goals better than Shelbourne in terms of goals conceded per game (0.89 vs 1.03).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
Shamrock Rovers
60%
Shelbourne
57%
Bohemians
56%
St Patrick's Athl.
54%
Derry City
54%
Sligo Rovers
49%
Waterford
47%
Cork City
46%
Galway United
41%
Drogheda United
36%
St Patrick's Athl. is 3.4 percentage points worse than Shelbourne in terms of average possession (54% vs 57%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
St Patrick's Athl.
For 4.8 · Against 3.8 · Total 8.6
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 3.7 · Total 6.1
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.0 · Against 12.8 · Total 20.8
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Shelbourne
For 3.7 · Against 3.4 · Total 7.1
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.6
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 10.6 · Total 21.9
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
St Patrick's Athl.
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.5
10.2
4.3
4.2
4.3
24.3
24.4
24.2
vs Stronger (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (36)
9.7
8.9
10.3
4.5
4.5
4.6
24.5
25.3
23.8
vs Weaker (10)
10.4
11.0
9.5
5.0
4.8
5.2
23.8
22.5
25.8
% over line
45%
45%
45%
66%
64%
68%
60%
50%
68%
% under line
55%
55%
55%
34%
36%
32%
40%
50%
32%
This opponent (Shelbourne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shelbourne
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
8.6
8.7
5.5
5.3
5.8
24.7
24.7
24.7
vs Stronger (2)
8.0
6.0
10.0
2.5
4.0
1.0
20.5
22.0
19.0
vs Similar (48)
8.7
8.7
8.6
5.7
5.4
6.0
24.9
24.8
25.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
43%
43%
43%
78%
80%
76%
72%
74%
70%
% under line
57%
57%
57%
22%
20%
24%
28%
26%
30%
This opponent (St Patrick's Athl.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Bohemians
10.8
Drogheda United
9.8
Waterford
9.8
Cork City
9.7
Galway United
9.7
St Patrick's Athl.
9.6
Shamrock Rovers
9.6
Derry City
9.2
Sligo Rovers
9.2
Shelbourne
8.6
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Shelbourne
6.1
Bohemians
5.8
Sligo Rovers
5.6
Waterford
5.5
Shamrock Rovers
5.4
Derry City
5.3
St Patrick's Athl.
5.2
Cork City
5.0
Galway United
4.7
Drogheda United
4.6
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Sligo Rovers
25.8
Waterford
25.0
Cork City
25.0
Bohemians
25.0
Shelbourne
24.9
St Patrick's Athl.
24.5
Galway United
24.5
Derry City
24.2
Shamrock Rovers
23.2
Drogheda United
22.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
St Patrick's Athl.
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.40
1.06
0.44
0.50
0.36
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (20)
0.85
0.45
1.10
0.40
0.60
0.50
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.50
1.25
0.75
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Shelbourne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shelbourne
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.67
0.53
0.53
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
0.64
0.46
0.71
0.57
0.57
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (St Patrick's Athl.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
St Patrick's Athl.
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.50
0.94
0.38
0.93
0.64
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (20)
1.00
0.50
0.90
0.30
1.10
0.70
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
0.50
1.50
0.75
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Shelbourne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shelbourne
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.40
0.60
0.33
0.47
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.57
0.39
0.64
0.36
0.50
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (St Patrick's Athl.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Patrick's Athl. over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shelbourne over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
St Patrick's Athl.
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mason Melia29%
Aidan Keena15%
Christopher Forrester14%
Zachary Elbouzedi13%
Simon Power10%
Conor Carty8%
Kian Leavy7%
Jason McClelland7%
Luke Turner7%
Joe Redmond6%
Ryan McLaughlin5%
Brandon Kavanagh4%
Jamie Lennon3%
Jake Mulraney3%
Barry Baggley0%
Tom Grivosti0%
Sean Hoare0%
Anto Breslin0%
Axel Sjoberg0%
Jordon Garrick0%
Joseph Anang0%
Al-Amin Kazeem0%
Romal Palmer0%
Darren Robinson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Tom Grivosti48%
Jamie Lennon43%
Sean Hoare36%
Romal Palmer25%
Jake Mulraney23%
Axel Sjoberg21%
Barry Baggley21%
Anto Breslin18%
Joe Redmond17%
Al-Amin Kazeem15%
Jordon Garrick14%
Darren Robinson11%
Mason Melia9%
Brandon Kavanagh7%
Jason McClelland7%
Ryan McLaughlin5%
Aidan Keena5%
Zachary Elbouzedi4%
Christopher Forrester4%
Joseph Anang3%
Simon Power0%
Luke Turner0%
Conor Carty0%
Kian Leavy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jordon Garrick14%
Barry Baggley12%
Brandon Kavanagh11%
Christopher Forrester11%
Mason Melia9%
Kian Leavy7%
Simon Power7%
Jason McClelland7%
Jake Mulraney6%
Anto Breslin6%
Joe Redmond6%
Aidan Keena5%
Tom Grivosti5%
Zachary Elbouzedi4%
Axel Sjoberg4%
Jamie Lennon3%
Ryan McLaughlin0%
Sean Hoare0%
Luke Turner0%
Joseph Anang0%
Al-Amin Kazeem0%
Romal Palmer0%
Conor Carty0%
Darren Robinson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mason Melia29%
Aidan Keena25%
Brandon Kavanagh19%
Jordon Garrick14%
Simon Power7%
Jake Mulraney6%
Anto Breslin6%
Christopher Forrester4%
Kian Leavy4%
Barry Baggley3%
Joe Redmond3%
Ryan McLaughlin0%
Tom Grivosti0%
Sean Hoare0%
Jamie Lennon0%
Zachary Elbouzedi0%
Jason McClelland0%
Axel Sjoberg0%
Luke Turner0%
Joseph Anang0%
Al-Amin Kazeem0%
Romal Palmer0%
Conor Carty0%
Darren Robinson0%
Shelbourne
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Harry Wood20%
Ademipo Odubeko18%
Alistair Coote15%
John Martin13%
Daniel Kelly12%
Kerr McInroy11%
Sean Boyd8%
Jack Henry-Francis7%
Sam Bone7%
Evan Caffrey5%
Ellis Chapman4%
Mark Coyle3%
Jonathan Lunney3%
Rayhaan Tulloch0%
John O'Sullivan0%
Sean Gannon0%
Conor Kearns0%
Paddy Barrett0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Ryan O'Kane0%
Tyreke Wilson0%
James Norris0%
Kameron Ledwidge0%
Wessel Speel0%
Lewis Temple0%
Milan Mbeng0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mark Coyle42%
Rayhaan Tulloch33%
Tyreke Wilson29%
Sean Boyd28%
Paddy Barrett28%
Sam Bone27%
Sean Gannon26%
Harry Wood25%
John Martin18%
John O'Sullivan18%
James Norris18%
Jack Henry-Francis14%
Milan Mbeng13%
Jonathan Lunney13%
Kameron Ledwidge11%
Ademipo Odubeko11%
Evan Caffrey10%
Daniel Kelly8%
Kerr McInroy8%
Lewis Temple8%
Alistair Coote6%
Wessel Speel6%
Ellis Chapman4%
Conor Kearns0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Ryan O'Kane0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kerr McInroy11%
Harry Wood10%
Sean Boyd8%
Ademipo Odubeko8%
Evan Caffrey8%
Tyreke Wilson7%
Daniel Kelly4%
Sean Gannon4%
Mark Coyle3%
James Norris3%
Jonathan Lunney3%
John Martin3%
Kameron Ledwidge3%
Ellis Chapman0%
Rayhaan Tulloch0%
John O'Sullivan0%
Sam Bone0%
Conor Kearns0%
Paddy Barrett0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Alistair Coote0%
Ryan O'Kane0%
Wessel Speel0%
Jack Henry-Francis0%
Lewis Temple0%
Milan Mbeng0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ademipo Odubeko26%
Kerr McInroy16%
Harry Wood15%
Ellis Chapman11%
Jack Henry-Francis7%
Milan Mbeng7%
Alistair Coote6%
John Martin5%
Evan Caffrey5%
Sean Boyd4%
Rayhaan Tulloch0%
John O'Sullivan0%
Sean Gannon0%
Daniel Kelly0%
Sam Bone0%
Jonathan Lunney0%
Conor Kearns0%
Mark Coyle0%
Paddy Barrett0%
Lorcan Healy0%
Ryan O'Kane0%
Tyreke Wilson0%
James Norris0%
Kameron Ledwidge0%
Wessel Speel0%
Lewis Temple0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
CC (2)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
St Patrick's Athl.'s squad is €1m more valuable than Shelbourne's (€5m vs €4m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
CC (2)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne have a similar attack value (both €2m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
CC (0)
€0m
St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
CC (0)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
St Patrick's Athl. and Shelbourne have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
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Shamrock Rovers
Derry City
Bohemians
Drogheda United
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
Galway United
Cork City
Bray Wanderers