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Sutton vs Truro Result & Analysis

Date: 21/03/2026
Time: 15:00
Final 0-3
Sutton
Sutton
Vs
61%
23%
16%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Truro
Truro
England: National League
Referee: D Bourne

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sutton win✗ Miss
61.0%
Avg Implied 57.3% · @ 1.59
Edge
+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.6%
Avg Implied 23.9% · @ 3.81
Edge
-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Truro win✓ Hit
16.4%
Avg Implied 18.8% · @ 4.86
Edge
-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

SuttonSutton

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L11D21W30W23L22D20W05L21W11DA·BOS07/02H·BRA11/02H·WOK17/02H·WEA21/02A·YEO25/02A·HAL28/02A·HAR03/03H·MOR07/03A·SCU10/03A·GAT14/03
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.571.621.441.501.71
vs Stronger (4)2.001.751.671.333.003.00
vs Similar (26)1.501.541.621.461.381.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Truro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TruroTruro

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W02L01L12L12L23L11D02L01L12LA·MOR07/02H·WOK10/02A·HAL14/02H·GAT21/02A·EAS25/02H·BRA28/02A·SOU03/03A·ALT07/03H·HAR14/03H·SCU17/03
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.031.671.331.400.731.93
vs Stronger (5)1.201.401.001.501.331.33
vs Similar (25)1.001.721.381.380.582.08
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%17%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.5%
Under 1.5
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.4%
@ 1.66+2.9%
Under 2.5
41.6%
@ 2.07-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.0%
Under 3.5
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.5%
No
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%
2-0
10.1%
2-1
10.0%
1-0
8.9%
3-0
6.9%
3-1
6.8%
0-0
5.8%
2-2
4.9%
Sutton goals ↓
Truro goals →
01234
05.8%3.8%2.3%0.8%0.2%
18.9%11%4.8%1.6%0.4%
210%10.0%4.9%1.6%0.4%
36.9%6.8%3.3%1.1%0.3%
43.5%3.5%1.7%0.6%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Sutton goals (down), columns = Truro goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
York
2.35
Rochdale
2.29
Carlisle
2.04
Boreham Wood
1.90
Scunthorpe
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Southend
1.72
Halifax
1.52
Hartlepool
1.48
Woking
1.37
Tamworth
1.35
Boston Utd
1.28
Altrincham
1.24
Solihull
1.22
Wealdstone
1.22
Yeovil
1.11
Gateshead
1.09
Eastleigh
1.09
Sutton
1.02
Aldershot
1.00
Brackley Town
0.91
Morecambe
0.83
Braintree Town
0.78
Truro
0.74
Sutton is 0.28 points better than Truro in terms of average points per game (1.02 vs 0.74).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
York
2.48
Boreham Wood
2.00
Rochdale
1.92
Carlisle
1.87
Southend
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Scunthorpe
1.69
Solihull
1.54
Halifax
1.50
Woking
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Wealdstone
1.48
Morecambe
1.43
Boston Utd
1.37
Tamworth
1.37
Sutton
1.28
Eastleigh
1.24
Altrincham
1.20
Gateshead
1.17
Hartlepool
1.17
Yeovil
1.04
Truro
0.91
Brackley Town
0.87
Braintree Town
0.83
Sutton is 0.37 goals better than Truro in terms of goals scored per game (1.28 vs 0.91).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
York
0.89
Rochdale
0.92
Southend
1.02
Forest Green
1.11
Carlisle
1.11
Woking
1.17
Boreham Wood
1.24
Hartlepool
1.28
Scunthorpe
1.35
Altrincham
1.41
Halifax
1.43
Boston Utd
1.46
Yeovil
1.48
Tamworth
1.54
Solihull
1.57
Truro
1.57
Brackley Town
1.63
Braintree Town
1.65
Wealdstone
1.65
Sutton
1.72
Eastleigh
1.74
Aldershot
1.89
Gateshead
1.96
Morecambe
2.24
Sutton is 0.15 goals worse than Truro in terms of goals conceded per game (1.72 vs 1.57).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
York
62%
Boreham Wood
58%
Wealdstone
57%
Rochdale
56%
Sutton
54%
Aldershot
54%
Forest Green
53%
Southend
52%
Altrincham
52%
Gateshead
50%
Woking
50%
Scunthorpe
49%
Morecambe
49%
Carlisle
49%
Solihull
48%
Braintree Town
48%
Halifax
48%
Hartlepool
47%
Yeovil
47%
Truro
44%
Eastleigh
41%
Brackley Town
40%
Tamworth
38%
Sutton is 9.8 percentage points better than Truro in terms of average possession (54% vs 44%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

SuttonSutton

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D21W00D11D11D00D04L00D01LA·BOS07/02H·BRA11/02H·WOK17/02H·WEA21/02A·YEO25/02A·HAL28/02A·HAR03/03H·MOR07/03A·SCU10/03A·GAT14/03
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.570.690.620.430.50
vs Stronger (4)0.500.500.330.331.001.00
vs Similar (26)0.580.580.770.690.380.46
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Truro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TruroTruro

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W00D00D11D00D11D10W02L00D12LA·MOR07/02H·WOK10/02A·HAL14/02H·GAT21/02A·EAS25/02H·BRA28/02A·SOU03/03A·ALT07/03H·HAR14/03H·SCU17/03
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.770.400.600.400.93
vs Stronger (5)0.800.800.501.001.000.67
vs Similar (25)0.320.760.380.540.251.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Sutton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Truro over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Truro over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Truro over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

SuttonSutton

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L11D00D30W12L11D20W01L21W10WA·BOS07/02H·BRA11/02H·WOK17/02H·WEA21/02A·YEO25/02A·HAL28/02A·HAR03/03H·MOR07/03A·SCU10/03A·GAT14/03
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.000.940.811.071.21
vs Stronger (4)1.501.251.331.002.002.00
vs Similar (26)0.920.960.850.771.001.15
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Truro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

TruroTruro

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L02L01L01L12L12L01L00D01L00DA·MOR07/02H·WOK10/02A·HAL14/02H·GAT21/02A·EAS25/02H·BRA28/02A·SOU03/03A·ALT07/03H·HAR14/03H·SCU17/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.900.930.800.331.00
vs Stronger (5)0.400.600.500.500.330.67
vs Similar (25)0.680.961.000.850.331.08
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Sutton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Sutton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sutton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Truro over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Truro over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Truro over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 2.5 cards83.2%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.581.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ROC (10)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
BU (6)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
BT (3)
€0m
SCU (2)
€0m
TAM (4)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
TRU (2)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Sutton and Truro have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ROC (3)
€1m
FG (2)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
BU (1)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
BT (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
TRU (0)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
BT (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
SOU (2)
€0m
BU (2)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
TAM (2)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
BT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
TRU (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
SCU (0)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
BT (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
Sutton and Truro have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ROC (4)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
BU (3)
€0m
EAS (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
BT (3)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
TRU (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
TAM (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Sutton and Truro have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
SUT wins
0
Draws
0
TRU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Sutton vs Truro · H/A from SUT
DateH/AGameScore
22/11/25ATruro Vs SUT2-3

SuttonSutton

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/03/26AGateshead Vs SUT1-1
10/03/26AScunthorpe Vs SUT1-2
07/03/26HSUT Vs Morecambe0-5
03/03/26AHartlepool Vs SUT0-2
28/02/26AHalifax Vs SUT2-2
25/02/26AYeovil Vs SUT3-2
21/02/26HSUT Vs Wealdstone3-0
17/02/26HSUT Vs Woking2-1
11/02/26HSUT Vs Braintree Town1-1
07/02/26ABoston Utd Vs SUT1-0

TruroTruro

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/03/26HTRU Vs Scunthorpe1-2
14/03/26HTRU Vs Hartlepool0-1
07/03/26AAltrincham Vs TRU2-0
03/03/26ASouthend Vs TRU1-1
28/02/26HTRU Vs Braintree Town2-3
25/02/26AEastleigh Vs TRU2-1
21/02/26HTRU Vs Gateshead1-2
14/02/26AHalifax Vs TRU1-0
10/02/26HTRU Vs Woking0-2
07/02/26AMorecambe Vs TRU1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Sutton
Sutton
England: National League
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLWD1.16
HomeDDWWL1.35
AwayLDWWD0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%31%21%
AVG goals3.063.083.04
Over 1.5 %82%88%75%
Over 2.5 %58%58%58%
Over 3.5 %36%31%42%
Scored1.401.541.25
Conceded1.661.541.79
BTTS72%77%67%
Clean Sheet16%19%12%
Corners17.0017.00-
Cards4.625.214.00
Truro
Truro
England: National League
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLLL0.66
HomeLLLLL0.90
AwayWLLDL0.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %15%24%5%
AVG goals2.632.572.70
Over 1.5 %80%71%90%
Over 2.5 %46%43%50%
Over 3.5 %27%24%30%
Scored0.901.190.60
Conceded1.731.382.10
BTTS41%38%45%
Clean Sheet12%24%0%
Corners---
Cards3.423.793.05

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1RochdaleRochdale48110
71%
2.3
9244+48
2.8
81%
60%
29%
-
0%
3.1
48%
-
0%
2
1111.90.9
56%
2YorkYork46108
72%
2.3
11441+73
3.4
87%
72%
50%
-
0%
3.9
52%
-
0%
1
0012.50.9
62%
3CarlisleCarlisle4796
62%
2.0
8852+36
3.0
83%
60%
30%
-
0%
3.6
52%
-
0%
0
0001.91.1
49%
4Boreham WoodBoreham Wood4993
55%
1.9
9861+37
3.2
88%
69%
39%
-
0%
3.2
43%
-
0%
0
0002.01.2
58%
5ScunthorpeScunthorpe4885
50%
1.8
8165+16
3.0
85%
60%
33%
-
0%
4.1
63%
-
0%
0
0001.71.4
49%
6Forest GreenForest Green4782
49%
1.7
8252+30
2.9
83%
51%
32%
-
0%
4.2
65%
-
0%
1
0001.71.1
53%
7SouthendSouthend4781
49%
1.7
8348+35
2.8
81%
51%
19%
-
0%
3.7
54%
-
0%
1
0001.81.0
52%
8HalifaxHalifax4670
43%
1.5
6966+3
2.9
80%
63%
28%
-
0%
4.5
72%
-
0%
0
0001.51.4
48%
9HartlepoolHartlepool4668
39%
1.5
5459-5
2.5
67%
41%
24%
-
0%
3.2
46%
-
0%
1
0001.21.3
47%
10WokingWoking4663
35%
1.4
6954+15
2.7
76%
48%
30%
-
0%
4.1
57%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
50%
11TamworthTamworth4662
37%
1.3
6371-8
2.9
78%
54%
33%
-
0%
3.8
63%
-
0%
0
0001.41.5
38%
12Boston UtdBoston Utd4659
33%
1.3
6367-4
2.8
78%
54%
28%
-
0%
4.1
61%
-
0%
1
0001.41.5
-
13AltrinchamAltrincham4657
37%
1.2
5565-10
2.6
76%
57%
20%
-
0%
4.6
70%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
52%
14SolihullSolihull4656
30%
1.2
7172-1
3.1
78%
52%
33%
-
0%
3.9
65%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
48%
15WealdstoneWealdstone4656
33%
1.2
6876-8
3.1
87%
57%
35%
-
0%
3.7
52%
-
0%
0
0001.51.7
57%
16YeovilYeovil4651
33%
1.1
4868-20
2.5
70%
50%
20%
-
0%
4.1
59%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
47%
17EastleighEastleigh4650
28%
1.1
5780-23
3.0
85%
57%
35%
-
0%
4.2
61%
-
0%
1
0001.21.7
41%
18GatesheadGateshead4650
30%
1.1
5490-36
3.1
85%
65%
35%
-
0%
3.4
50%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
50%
19SuttonSutton4647
24%
1.0
5979-20
3.0
80%
61%
33%
-
0%
4.5
65%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
54%
20AldershotAldershot4646
28%
1.0
6987-18
3.4
89%
70%
41%
-
0%
4.7
70%
-
0%
0
0001.51.9
54%
21Brackley TownBrackley Town4642
22%
0.9
4075-35
2.5
74%
43%
20%
-
0%
4.1
59%
-
0%
0
0000.91.6
40%
22MorecambeMorecambe4638
20%
0.8
66103-37
3.7
89%
70%
50%
-
0%
3.8
57%
-
0%
0
0001.42.2
49%
23Braintree TownBraintree Town4636
17%
0.8
3876-38
2.5
70%
48%
26%
-
0%
4.0
54%
-
0%
0
0000.81.7
48%
24TruroTruro4634
17%
0.7
4272-30
2.5
74%
43%
24%
-
0%
3.3
46%
-
0%
0
0000.91.6
44%
England: National League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →

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