Utrecht’s recent 3-3 draw against Sparta Rotterdam leaves them struggling to score, averaging only 0.5 goals at home against stronger opposition while conceding 1.5. PSV Eindhoven, on a two-game winning streak that saw them beat Groningen 5-1, averages 2.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded on the road against weaker teams. The model therefore favours an away win, with a 60% chance of PSV triumphing, 21% for a draw, and 19% for a Utrecht victory. The expected total is 3.6 goals, centring on a 3-goal total that carries a 21% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2, giving PSV a narrow win with a 9.4% chance. Suggested picks include Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.3%, Under 7.5 at 98.1%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.3%, Home under 3.5 goals at 96.2%, Under 6.5 at 95.0%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 92.9%, Away +2 handicap at 90.7%, and Away under 2.5 2H goals at 90.5%.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction of an away win proved accurate as PSV Eindhoven secured a 1-6 victory, extending their three-game winning streak while Utrecht slipped after a defeat. The pre-match favourite, Away win, carried a 61% probability and was right. The suggested selections performed largely well: Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.2%, Under 7.5 hit at 98.1%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.1%, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 96.2%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 94.6%, and Away +2 handicap hit at 90.7%. Two picks missed: Under 6.5 at 95.0% and Away under 2.5 2H goals at 90.5%. Overall, the model’s selections largely came in, confirming the predicted outcome.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Utrecht win✗ Miss
18.5%
Avg Implied 20.5% · @ 4.59
Edge
-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
4.85
1xBet
4.83
Pinnacle
4.76
Bet365
4.75
BetVictor
4.75
Draw✗ Miss
20.5%
Avg Implied 21.1% · @ 4.46
Edge
-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.81
1xBet
4.73
Betano
4.65
Marathonbet
4.60
Dafabet
4.60
PSV Eindhoven win✓ Hit
61.0%
Avg Implied 58.4% · @ 1.61
Edge
+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.65
10Bet
1.65
Superbet
1.65
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.62
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Utrecht
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.47
1.40
1.27
1.53
1.67
vs Stronger (6)
1.33
2.00
0.50
1.50
1.75
2.25
vs Similar (10)
1.50
1.50
1.29
1.86
2.00
0.67
vs Weaker (14)
1.50
1.21
1.83
0.50
1.25
1.75
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (PSV Eindhoven) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PSV Eindhoven
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.8
Avg scored
3.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.73
1.50
3.31
1.56
2.07
1.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.60
2.00
2.00
1.67
1.00
2.50
vs Weaker (25)
2.96
1.40
3.62
1.54
2.25
1.25
Clean sheet %
13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Utrecht) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.5%
@ 1.09+2.3%
Under 1.5
11.5%
@ 6.79-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Under
Betfair
7.50
Pinnacle
7.37
Bet365
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
Marathonbet
6.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
70.3%
@ 1.35+0.9%
Under 2.5
29.7%
@ 3.06-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.41
Unibet
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.26
Betfair
3.25
Bet365
3.10
BetVictor
3.10
Betano
3.10
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
49.1%
@ 1.92-0.3%
Under 3.5
50.9%
@ 1.87+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.00
Superbet
2.00
10Bet
1.95
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Under
Pinnacle
1.94
1xBet
1.92
Betano
1.91
SBO
1.91
Betfair
1.90
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.9%
@ 1.41-0.1%
No
34.1%
@ 2.73+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Unibet
1.43
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.40
No
Betfair
2.88
BetVictor
2.88
1xBet
2.77
10Bet
2.75
Marathonbet
2.72
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.4%@ 7.97+3.6%
1-1
8.7%@ 9.08+3.7%
0-2
7.4%@ 10.68+3.1%
1-3
7.4%@ 10.34+3.0%
2-2
5.9%@ 11.23+1.9%
0-3
5.8%@ 13.62+2.5%
0-1
5.5%@ 11.65+1.5%
2-1
5.0%@ 13.89+1.7%
Utrecht goals ↓
PSV Eindhoven goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.4%
5.5%
7.4%
5.8%
3.5%
1
2.6%
8.7%
9.4%
7.4%
4.4%
2
2.1%
5.0%
5.9%
4.7%
2.8%
3
0.9%
2.1%
2.5%
2.0%
1.2%
4
0.3%
0.7%
0.8%
0.6%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Utrecht goals (down), columns = PSV Eindhoven goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.47
Feyenoord
1.91
NEC Nijmegen
1.74
Twente
1.71
Ajax
1.67
Utrecht
1.58
AZ Alkmaar
1.53
Heerenveen
1.42
Groningen
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam
1.26
Fortuna Sittard
1.15
Willem II
1.14
Excelsior
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.12
Telstar
1.09
PEC Zwolle
1.09
ADO Den Haag
1.08
Cambuur
1.03
Utrecht is 0.89 points worse than PSV Eindhoven in terms of average points per game (1.58 vs 2.47).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.97
NEC Nijmegen
2.26
Feyenoord
2.06
Ajax
1.78
Twente
1.74
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Heerenveen
1.64
Utrecht
1.61
GO Ahead Eagles
1.59
Telstar
1.44
Fortuna Sittard
1.44
Groningen
1.40
Willem II
1.32
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Excelsior
1.26
ADO Den Haag
1.25
Cambuur
1.20
Sparta Rotterdam
1.18
Utrecht is 1.36 goals worse than PSV Eindhoven in terms of goals scored per game (1.61 vs 2.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
1.14
Twente
1.18
Utrecht
1.22
Feyenoord
1.29
PSV Eindhoven
1.32
Groningen
1.34
AZ Alkmaar
1.50
NEC Nijmegen
1.56
GO Ahead Eagles
1.56
Heerenveen
1.61
Telstar
1.62
Excelsior
1.65
Sparta Rotterdam
1.82
Fortuna Sittard
1.85
Willem II
1.90
ADO Den Haag
2.01
PEC Zwolle
2.09
Cambuur
2.10
Utrecht is 0.10 goals better than PSV Eindhoven in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 1.32).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
PSV Eindhoven
61%
NEC Nijmegen
57%
Ajax
56%
Twente
54%
AZ Alkmaar
53%
Feyenoord
53%
Heerenveen
51%
Groningen
50%
GO Ahead Eagles
49%
Excelsior
48%
Sparta Rotterdam
47%
Utrecht
47%
Telstar
45%
PEC Zwolle
45%
Fortuna Sittard
45%
Utrecht is 14.3 percentage points worse than PSV Eindhoven in terms of average possession (47% vs 61%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Utrecht
For 5.0 · Against 5.4 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.2 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 10.5 · Total 23.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
PSV Eindhoven
For 7.3 · Against 3.8 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.2 · Total 2.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.2 · Against 6.5 · Total 14.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Utrecht
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.8
9.7
3.5
3.8
3.3
23.0
23.6
22.4
vs Stronger (10)
11.4
10.2
12.6
4.5
6.6
2.4
23.5
26.4
20.6
vs Similar (18)
9.1
9.8
8.1
3.6
3.6
3.6
22.8
24.0
21.2
vs Weaker (22)
9.5
9.7
9.5
3.0
2.4
3.4
22.9
21.7
23.8
% over line
54%
54%
54%
50%
50%
50%
54%
62%
46%
% under line
46%
46%
46%
50%
50%
50%
46%
38%
54%
This opponent (PSV Eindhoven) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PSV Eindhoven
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.2
11.5
10.9
3.1
3.3
2.9
18.1
17.8
18.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
11.1
12.7
9.5
4.0
5.5
2.5
20.0
21.8
18.2
vs Weaker (38)
11.2
11.1
11.4
2.8
2.6
3.0
17.5
16.6
18.4
% over line
72%
76%
68%
28%
32%
24%
18%
16%
20%
% under line
28%
24%
32%
72%
68%
76%
82%
84%
80%
This opponent (Utrecht) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
GO Ahead Eagles
11.3
PSV Eindhoven
11.2
Fortuna Sittard
10.8
Sparta Rotterdam
10.7
Telstar
10.6
Willem II
10.6
ADO Den Haag
10.4
AZ Alkmaar
10.4
Groningen
10.1
Cambuur
10.1
Feyenoord
10.0
Heerenveen
10.0
Twente
9.9
NEC Nijmegen
9.9
Utrecht
9.7
Ajax
9.7
Excelsior
9.4
PEC Zwolle
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cambuur
4.0
NEC Nijmegen
3.9
Twente
3.8
Sparta Rotterdam
3.8
Feyenoord
3.8
AZ Alkmaar
3.7
ADO Den Haag
3.7
Utrecht
3.7
Ajax
3.7
Groningen
3.6
PSV Eindhoven
3.4
Fortuna Sittard
3.4
PEC Zwolle
3.4
GO Ahead Eagles
3.3
Telstar
3.3
Willem II
3.2
Excelsior
3.1
Heerenveen
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ADO Den Haag
26.8
Cambuur
26.7
NEC Nijmegen
23.9
Fortuna Sittard
23.4
Utrecht
23.0
Feyenoord
22.8
AZ Alkmaar
22.6
PEC Zwolle
22.5
Willem II
22.5
Telstar
22.5
Ajax
21.8
Excelsior
21.7
Twente
20.8
Groningen
20.7
Sparta Rotterdam
20.6
Heerenveen
20.2
GO Ahead Eagles
18.9
PSV Eindhoven
18.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
61.4%
@ 1.57+2.6%
Under 9.5
38.6%
@ 2.24-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.61
1xBet
1.58
Unibet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.55
Under
Betano
2.30
Betfair
2.30
Unibet
2.23
Pinnacle
2.23
Marathonbet
2.20
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
41.0%
@ 2.20-1.1%
Under 3.5
59.0%
@ 1.60+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.32
Unibet
2.30
Betano
1.98
Under
Betano
1.78
Unibet
1.52
Superbet
1.49
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
40.9%
Under 21.5
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Utrecht or Draw✗ Miss
45.3%
Avg Implied 41.2% · @ 2.28
Edge
+4.0%
19%
21%
61%
covers Utrecht + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.40
1xBet
2.36
Marathonbet
2.33
Betano
2.32
SBO
2.30
Utrecht or PSV Eindhoven✓ Hit
76.8%
Avg Implied 79.4% · @ 1.18
Edge
-2.6%
19%
21%
61%
covers Utrecht + PSV Eindhoven
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.20
Betano
1.20
Draw or PSV Eindhoven✓ Hit
78.0%
Avg Implied 79.4% · @ 1.18
Edge
-1.5%
19%
21%
61%
covers Draw + PSV Eindhoven
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.19
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Utrecht over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.2%
@ 1.29-0.8%
Under
28.8%
@ 3.33+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Unibet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.58
10Bet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.30
Utrecht over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
35.4%
@ 2.44-2.9%
Under
64.6%
@ 1.51+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.52
Unibet
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Bet365
2.50
1xBet
2.44
Under
Betano
1.55
Pinnacle
1.55
10Bet
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.52
Utrecht over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.1%
@ 5.68-3.3%
Under
86.9%
@ 1.11+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.90
1xBet
5.90
Unibet
5.80
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Utrecht over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.8%
@ 13.92-3.1%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.02+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
PSV Eindhoven over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
87.0%
@ 1.06-0.9%
Under
13.0%
@ 7.68+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.08
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
Unibet
1.04
Under
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.50
1xBet
7.50
Superbet
7.10
Unibet
7.00
PSV Eindhoven over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
60.4%
@ 1.40-6.3%
Under
39.6%
@ 2.80+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.45
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Unibet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.97
Marathonbet
2.88
1xBet
2.88
BetVictor
2.88
Betfair
2.88
PSV Eindhoven over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
33.3%
@ 2.27-7.7%
Under
66.7%
@ 1.58+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.37
10Bet
2.35
Unibet
2.30
Pinnacle
2.28
Betfair
2.25
Under
Pinnacle
1.66
Marathonbet
1.61
1xBet
1.61
BetVictor
1.60
Betano
1.60
PSV Eindhoven over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
15.0%
@ 4.29-6.7%
Under
85.0%
@ 1.19+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Pinnacle
4.38
BetVictor
4.33
Under
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
BetVictor
1.18
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Utrecht, so a minus line means Utrecht give that many goals of a start and PSV Eindhoven receive them. At -1, Utrecht must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Utrecht win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Utrecht)Actual: PSV Eindhoven
Utrecht -2
3.0%
@ 20.40-1.5%
Draw -2
6.3%
@ 12.00-1.4%
PSV Eindhoven +2
90.7%
@ 1.05+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
26.00
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
19.00
Unibet
17.00
10Bet
17.00
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
Superbet
11.00
Unibet
11.00
10Bet
9.00
Away
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Handicap -1 (Utrecht)Actual: PSV Eindhoven
Utrecht -1
9.3%
@ 8.69-0.9%
Draw -1
12.8%
@ 6.30-1.3%
PSV Eindhoven +1
78.0%
@ 1.17+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
10.00
Unibet
9.00
10Bet
8.50
Marathonbet
5.95
Draw
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Unibet
6.50
10Bet
6.00
Marathonbet
4.50
Away
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Unibet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Handicap +1 (Utrecht)Actual: PSV Eindhoven
Utrecht +1
45.3%
@ 2.25+5.5%
Draw +1
21.5%
@ 3.85-1.8%
PSV Eindhoven -1
33.3%
@ 2.42-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.33
Betfair
2.30
Bet365
2.25
Unibet
2.25
Superbet
2.22
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.96
Superbet
3.85
10Bet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Away
10Bet
2.55
Bet365
2.50
Superbet
2.45
Unibet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.34
Handicap +2 (Utrecht)Actual: PSV Eindhoven
Utrecht +2
66.7%
@ 1.49+6.5%
Draw +2
16.9%
@ 4.71-2.2%
PSV Eindhoven -2
16.4%
@ 4.31-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.49
Unibet
1.49
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
10Bet
4.75
Superbet
4.65
Betfair
4.50
Away
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.30
Superbet
4.25
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Utrecht
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.50
0.60
0.20
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.83
0.50
0.50
0.75
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.20
0.43
0.14
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (14)
0.57
0.57
0.83
0.17
0.38
0.88
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (PSV Eindhoven) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PSV Eindhoven
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.80
1.56
0.88
1.21
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.00
0.80
1.33
0.33
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (25)
1.48
0.80
1.62
1.00
1.33
0.58
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Utrecht) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.4%
@ 1.19-4.7%
Under 0.5
26.6%
@ 4.23+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.80
Marathonbet
4.35
1xBet
4.35
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.25
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
38.1%
@ 1.97-9.4%
Under 1.5
61.9%
@ 1.78+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.05
SBO
2.04
Unibet
2.02
William Hil
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
16.6%
@ 4.04-6.3%
Under 2.5
83.4%
@ 1.20+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.30
Superbet
4.10
Betano
4.05
William Hil
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Under
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.20
10Bet
1.20
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Utrecht over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
41.8%
@ 2.10-2.5%
Under
58.2%
@ 1.67+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.19
Unibet
2.17
Betano
2.12
Superbet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.06
Under
10Bet
1.73
1xBet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.68
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
Utrecht over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.2%
@ 6.61-3.8%
Under
89.8%
@ 1.07+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.30
Unibet
7.00
Superbet
6.50
1xBet
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Unibet
1.07
Utrecht over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 17.50-3.7%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.02+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
PSV Eindhoven over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
58.7%
@ 1.48-4.3%
Under
41.3%
@ 2.52+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Unibet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.48
1xBet
1.47
Under
Pinnacle
2.74
10Bet
2.50
1xBet
2.50
Superbet
2.47
Betano
2.47
PSV Eindhoven over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
22.6%
@ 3.29-5.6%
Under
77.4%
@ 1.29+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.35
Unibet
3.35
Betano
3.30
Marathonbet
3.26
Superbet
3.25
Under
Superbet
1.30
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
PSV Eindhoven over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.4%
@ 8.25-5.8%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.04+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.70
Unibet
8.50
Superbet
8.20
Betano
7.60
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Utrecht
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.97
0.80
1.07
0.93
0.87
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.17
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.25
vs Similar (10)
0.90
1.30
0.86
1.71
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.64
1.00
0.33
0.88
0.88
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (PSV Eindhoven) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PSV Eindhoven
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.70
1.75
0.69
0.86
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
1.20
0.67
1.33
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (25)
1.48
0.60
2.00
0.54
0.92
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Utrecht) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
82.0%
@ 1.11-2.6%
Under 0.5
18.0%
@ 6.07+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Under
1xBet
6.80
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
6.00
Betano
6.00
Superbet
5.90
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
51.2%
@ 1.56-8.3%
Under 1.5
48.8%
@ 2.30+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.62
William Hil
1.60
Bet365
1.57
Betano
1.55
Unibet
1.55
Under
Betano
2.42
Marathonbet
2.34
1xBet
2.34
10Bet
2.30
Unibet
2.30
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
23.1%
@ 2.73-10.8%
Under 2.5
76.9%
@ 1.41+10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.88
Superbet
2.87
Bet365
2.75
Unibet
2.75
10Bet
2.70
Under
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Superbet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Utrecht over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
49.9%
@ 1.76-2.7%
Under
50.1%
@ 1.95+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.76
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Under
Betano
2.00
1xBet
1.96
Marathonbet
1.93
Superbet
1.92
Utrecht over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.5%
@ 4.76-4.9%
Under
85.5%
@ 1.15+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.10
Superbet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
1xBet
4.70
Betano
4.45
Under
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
Utrecht over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 12.50-4.6%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.02+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
PSV Eindhoven over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
63.4%
@ 1.31-7.4%
Under
36.6%
@ 3.18+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Betano
1.30
Under
Betano
3.30
1xBet
3.20
Superbet
3.05
PSV Eindhoven over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
29.9%
@ 2.43-8.2%
Under
70.1%
@ 1.49+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.55
10Bet
2.45
1xBet
2.42
Marathonbet
2.38
Betano
2.35
Under
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.50
1xBet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.45
PSV Eindhoven over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
9.5%
@ 5.61-7.0%
Under
90.5%
@ 1.11+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
5.90
10Bet
5.75
1xBet
5.70
Betano
5.10
Under
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.0%
1.05
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.05
+4.1%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 HT goals
94.6%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
-
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
90.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.06
Unibet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
90.5%
1.11
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
-
+7.0%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.8%
1.07
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Unibet
1.07
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
88.5%
1.09
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
88.5%
1.13
Betano
1.17
Pinnacle
1.16
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
+5.8%
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
87.0%
1.06
Superbet
1.08
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
Unibet
1.04
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
86.9%
1.11
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.5%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
85.0%
1.19
Betano
1.21
Pinnacle
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
BetVictor
1.18
+6.7%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.4%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.20
10Bet
1.20
+6.3%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.0%
1.11
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.10
-2.6%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
78.0%
1.18
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.19
-1.5%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
78.0%
1.17
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
Unibet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
77.4%
1.29
Superbet
1.30
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
+5.6%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
77.1%
1.38
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
-
+9.3%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.9%
1.41
Betano
1.47
Marathonbet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Superbet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
+10.8%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
76.8%
1.18
William Hil
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.20
Betano
1.20
-2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
76.6%
1.35
Pinnacle
1.40
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Superbet
1.35
+7.3%
✗ Miss
Under 23.5 fouls
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.4%
1.19
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.20
-4.7%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
73.0%
1.31
Unibet
1.33
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
71.2%
1.29
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Unibet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
70.3%
1.35
Superbet
1.41
Unibet
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
70.1%
1.49
Betano
1.55
Marathonbet
1.50
1xBet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.45
+8.2%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Utrecht
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Artem Stepanov100%
Adrian Blake50%
Arthur Zagre0%
Dani De Wit0%
Vasilis Barkas0%
Siebe Horemans0%
Niklas Vesterlund0%
Neville Nwankwo0%
Kevin Paredes0%
Davy van den Berg0%
Yoann Cathline0%
Guus Offerhaus0%
Ángel Alarcón0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Arthur Zagre50%
Dani De Wit50%
Guus Offerhaus50%
Vasilis Barkas33%
Artem Stepanov33%
Siebe Horemans25%
Niklas Vesterlund0%
Neville Nwankwo0%
Kevin Paredes0%
Davy van den Berg0%
Yoann Cathline0%
Ángel Alarcón0%
Adrian Blake0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Niklas Vesterlund50%
Yoann Cathline50%
Davy van den Berg25%
Arthur Zagre0%
Dani De Wit0%
Vasilis Barkas0%
Siebe Horemans0%
Neville Nwankwo0%
Kevin Paredes0%
Guus Offerhaus0%
Ángel Alarcón0%
Adrian Blake0%
Artem Stepanov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ángel Alarcón25%
Arthur Zagre0%
Dani De Wit0%
Vasilis Barkas0%
Siebe Horemans0%
Niklas Vesterlund0%
Neville Nwankwo0%
Kevin Paredes0%
Davy van den Berg0%
Yoann Cathline0%
Guus Offerhaus0%
Adrian Blake0%
Artem Stepanov0%
PSV Eindhoven
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sergiño Dest67%
Ricardo Pepi50%
Ruben van Bommel50%
Sven Mijnans33%
Noah Fernandez33%
Ivan Perišić25%
Mauro Júnior25%
Guus Til25%
Ryan Flamingo25%
Armando Obispo0%
Dennis Man0%
Matěj Kovář0%
Paul Wanner0%
Kodai Sano0%
Amir Bouhamdi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dennis Man33%
Armando Obispo25%
Ruben van Bommel25%
Ivan Perišić0%
Mauro Júnior0%
Guus Til0%
Sven Mijnans0%
Sergiño Dest0%
Ricardo Pepi0%
Matěj Kovář0%
Paul Wanner0%
Ryan Flamingo0%
Kodai Sano0%
Noah Fernandez0%
Amir Bouhamdi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sergiño Dest67%
Ivan Perišić25%
Mauro Júnior25%
Paul Wanner25%
Ruben van Bommel25%
Amir Bouhamdi25%
Armando Obispo0%
Guus Til0%
Sven Mijnans0%
Dennis Man0%
Ricardo Pepi0%
Matěj Kovář0%
Ryan Flamingo0%
Kodai Sano0%
Noah Fernandez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ricardo Pepi75%
Guus Til50%
Sergiño Dest33%
Dennis Man33%
Kodai Sano33%
Ivan Perišić25%
Ruben van Bommel25%
Armando Obispo0%
Mauro Júnior0%
Sven Mijnans0%
Matěj Kovář0%
Paul Wanner0%
Ryan Flamingo0%
Noah Fernandez0%
Amir Bouhamdi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
ADH (23)
€13m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
TEL (21)
€8m
Utrecht's squad is €219m less valuable than PSV Eindhoven's (€61m vs €280m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
ADH (11)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
CAM (10)
€3m
TEL (7)
€3m
Utrecht's attack is €73m less valuable than PSV Eindhoven's (€33m vs €106m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
TEL (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
ADH (3)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
Utrecht's midfield is €46m less valuable than PSV Eindhoven's (€14m vs €60m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
ADH (9)
€5m
TEL (10)
€3m
Utrecht's defence is €100m less valuable than PSV Eindhoven's (€15m vs €115m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
AZ Alkmaar
Feyenoord
Ajax
GO Ahead Eagles
Fortuna Sittard
NEC Nijmegen
Twente
Excelsior
Groningen
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
PEC Zwolle
Telstar
Willem II
ADO Den Haag
Cambuur