Woking are favoured to win, with a 48 % chance of triumph, 27 % for a draw and 25 % for Halifax. The model expects 2.7 goals on average, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12.9 %. Woking, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, average 1.79 goals scored and 0.93 conceded, while Halifax on the road average 1.25 scored and 1.33 conceded. The suggested picks are: Over 2.5 cards81.3 %, Over 1.577.1 % (miss), Under 5.5 cards72.3 % (miss), and Under 3.570.5 % (hit). Both sides have recently come off a win, with Woking’s last match a 3-2 win over Fylde and Halifax’s a 4-1 victory over Tamworth. The model’s selection of a home win is the most probable outcome, and the expected total of 2.7 goals aligns with the 1-1 scoreline forecast.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Halifax edged Woking 1-0, overturning the pre-match favourite, the model’s Home win pick, which had a 48 % probability. The result was a clean away win, so the model’s call was wrong. The match finished 0-1, giving Halifax a victory that extended their recent run of one win in five. The model’s selection for Over 2.5 cards hit with an 81.3 % chance, while Over 1.5 missed despite a 77.1 % probability. Under 5.5 cards, with a 72.3 % likelihood, also missed, but Under 3.5, at 70.5 %, was correct. The expected total of 2.7 goals fell short of the actual tally.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Woking win✗ Miss
47.6%
Avg Implied 39.8% · @ 2.27
Edge
+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.1%
Avg Implied 27.6% · @ 3.27
Edge
-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Halifax win✓ Hit
25.3%
Avg Implied 32.5% · @ 2.78
Edge
-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Woking
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.10
1.80
1.00
1.47
1.20
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.62
1.07
1.79
0.93
1.47
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Halifax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Halifax
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.47
1.65
1.53
1.23
1.38
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
2.00
1.50
2.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
1.48
1.41
1.67
1.47
1.25
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Woking) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.1%
Under 1.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.7%
@ 1.81+0.3%
Under 2.5
48.3%
@ 1.91-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.5%
Under 3.5
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.3%
No
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
9.2%
2-0
8.4%
0-0
7.6%
1-2
6.6%
0-1 ✓
6.1%
2-2
5.3%
Woking goals ↓
Halifax goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
6.1%
4.1%
1.5%
0.4%
1
9.2%
13%
6.6%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.4%
9.5%
5.3%
2.0%
0.6%
3
4.5%
5.1%
2.9%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.8%
2.1%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Woking goals (down), columns = Halifax goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
York
2.35
Rochdale
2.29
Carlisle
2.02
Boreham Wood
1.98
Scunthorpe
1.77
Forest Green
1.72
Southend
1.72
Halifax
1.52
Hartlepool
1.48
Woking
1.37
Tamworth
1.35
Boston Utd
1.28
Altrincham
1.24
Solihull
1.22
Wealdstone
1.22
Yeovil
1.11
Gateshead
1.09
Eastleigh
1.09
Sutton
1.02
Aldershot
1.00
Brackley Town
0.91
Morecambe
0.83
Braintree Town
0.78
Truro
0.74
Woking is 0.15 points worse than Halifax in terms of average points per game (1.37 vs 1.52).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
York
2.48
Boreham Wood
2.04
Rochdale
1.92
Carlisle
1.87
Southend
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Scunthorpe
1.69
Solihull
1.54
Halifax
1.50
Woking
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Wealdstone
1.48
Morecambe
1.43
Boston Utd
1.37
Tamworth
1.37
Sutton
1.28
Eastleigh
1.24
Altrincham
1.20
Gateshead
1.17
Hartlepool
1.17
Yeovil
1.04
Truro
0.91
Brackley Town
0.87
Braintree Town
0.83
Woking and Halifax are level in goals scored per game (both 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
York
0.89
Rochdale
0.92
Southend
1.02
Forest Green
1.13
Carlisle
1.13
Woking
1.17
Boreham Wood
1.24
Hartlepool
1.28
Scunthorpe
1.35
Altrincham
1.41
Halifax
1.43
Boston Utd
1.46
Yeovil
1.48
Tamworth
1.54
Solihull
1.57
Truro
1.57
Brackley Town
1.63
Braintree Town
1.65
Wealdstone
1.65
Sutton
1.72
Eastleigh
1.74
Aldershot
1.89
Gateshead
1.96
Morecambe
2.24
Woking is 0.26 goals better than Halifax in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
York
62%
Boreham Wood
58%
Wealdstone
57%
Rochdale
56%
Sutton
54%
Aldershot
54%
Forest Green
53%
Southend
52%
Altrincham
52%
Gateshead
50%
Woking
50%
Scunthorpe
49%
Morecambe
49%
Carlisle
49%
Solihull
48%
Braintree Town
48%
Halifax
48%
Hartlepool
47%
Yeovil
47%
Truro
44%
Eastleigh
41%
Brackley Town
40%
Tamworth
38%
Woking is 2.5 percentage points better than Halifax in terms of average possession (50% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Woking
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.50
0.73
0.47
0.73
0.53
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.76
0.48
0.79
0.43
0.73
0.53
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Halifax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Halifax
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.59
0.71
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
1.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.59
0.59
0.53
0.60
0.67
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Woking) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Woking over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Woking over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Woking over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Halifax over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Halifax over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Halifax over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Woking
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.60
1.07
0.53
0.73
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.86
0.59
1.00
0.50
0.73
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Halifax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Halifax
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.80
1.06
0.82
0.62
0.77
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.89
0.81
1.13
0.87
0.58
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Woking) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Woking over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Woking over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Woking over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Halifax over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Halifax over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Halifax over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
England: National League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →