Wrexham and Watford are set to clash in the Championship, with the home side coming off a draw against Middlesbrough. Recent form suggests a high-scoring encounter, as Wrexham have averaged 1.69 goals scored and 1.54 conceded at home, while Watford have averaged 1.5 goals scored and 3.5 conceded away against stronger opponents. The expected total goals is 3.2, with a most likely total of 3 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 11.2%.
The model picks Wrexham to win, with a 50% chance of victory and a 25% chance of Watford winning. There's a 24% chance of the match ending in a draw. Wrexham's home form against weaker opponents is key, but Watford's recent struggles away from home against stronger teams could be a concern.
The model suggests Over 1.5 goals, with an 83.7% probability. In terms of match result, Wrexham have a 50% chance of winning, a 24% chance of drawing, and a 25% chance of losing.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Wrexham, fell short as the match finished 1-1, a draw that extended both sides’ recent streaks of draws. The model had picked a home win with a 38 % probability, but that call proved wrong. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.6 %, Under 7.5 hit at 98.4 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.2 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 96.1 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 95.7 %, Under 6.5 hit at 95.6 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 92.1 %, and Away under 1.5 HT goals hit at 90.7 %. The match’s 1-1 scoreline matched the most likely outcome, but the predicted 2-goal total was missed.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Wrexham win✗ Miss
37.8%
Avg Implied 48.9% · @ 1.92
Edge
-11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.96
William Hil
1.95
Betano
1.95
Superbet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.94
Draw✓ Hit
27.7%
Avg Implied 26.7% · @ 3.51
Edge
+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.74
BetVictor
3.60
Betfair
3.60
Dafabet
3.60
Superbet
3.55
Watford win✗ Miss
34.5%
Avg Implied 24.4% · @ 3.85
Edge
+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Betano
4.00
Dafabet
3.95
Pinnacle
3.94
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Wrexham
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.57
2.00
1.80
1.33
1.33
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.63
2.05
2.00
2.09
1.12
2.00
vs Weaker (10)
1.70
0.60
2.00
0.67
1.57
0.57
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Watford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Watford
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.53
1.00
1.13
1.00
1.93
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.04
1.57
1.08
1.15
1.00
1.93
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Wrexham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.8%
@ 1.26+3.7%
Under 1.5
22.2%
@ 3.60-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Superbet
1.28
BetVictor
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Under
Betfair
3.80
Pinnacle
3.78
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.70
Superbet
3.70
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.6%
@ 1.87+2.1%
Under 2.5
47.4%
@ 1.91-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.92
Betano
1.91
SBO
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Superbet
1.88
Under
Pinnacle
1.97
10Bet
1.93
SBO
1.93
Betano
1.93
Superbet
1.92
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.4%
@ 3.11+0.3%
Under 3.5
69.6%
@ 1.34-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.25
Superbet
3.20
Bet365
3.20
Betano
3.20
888Sport
3.20
Under
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.6%
@ 1.72+3.3%
No
42.4%
@ 2.03-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.74
10Bet
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.72
No
Betfair
2.10
Betano
2.05
10Bet
2.05
888Sport
2.05
William Hil
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.2%@ 6.34+6.0%
2-1
8.5%@ 7.87+2.8%
1-2
8.1%@ 11.83+4.3%
1-0
7.6%@ 7.16+1.3%
0-0
7.4%@ 10.21+3.0%
0-1
7.2%@ 10.64+2.9%
2-0
6.3%@ 9.02+1.3%
2-2
5.8%@ 12.89+2.3%
Wrexham goals ↓
Watford goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
7.2%
5.7%
2.6%
0.9%
1
7.6%
13%
8.1%
3.7%
1.2%
2
6.3%
8.5%
5.8%
2.6%
0.9%
3
3.0%
4.1%
2.8%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.1%
1.5%
1.0%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Wrexham goals (down), columns = Watford goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
Wrexham is 0.30 points better than Watford in terms of average points per game (1.54 vs 1.24).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
Wrexham is 0.35 goals better than Watford in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.15).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
Wrexham and Watford are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Wrexham is 3.1 percentage points worse than Watford in terms of average possession (48% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Wrexham
For 4.6 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 8.4 · Total 20.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Watford
For 6.2 · Against 4.9 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 10.7 · Total 23.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Wrexham
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.2
10.3
3.5
3.5
3.5
19.4
19.1
19.8
vs Stronger (1)
13.0
13.0
-
6.0
6.0
-
17.0
17.0
-
vs Similar (29)
9.0
9.3
8.7
3.8
3.8
3.7
19.4
18.9
20.0
vs Weaker (20)
11.9
11.3
12.6
3.0
2.7
3.3
19.6
19.6
19.5
% over line
52%
46%
58%
50%
42%
58%
30%
23%
38%
% under line
48%
54%
42%
50%
58%
42%
70%
77%
62%
This opponent (Watford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Watford
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.4
10.0
4.5
4.5
4.5
21.2
22.0
20.3
vs Stronger (2)
7.0
7.0
7.0
4.0
5.0
3.0
23.0
30.0
16.0
vs Similar (47)
10.3
10.4
10.2
4.5
4.4
4.6
21.1
21.6
20.5
vs Weaker (1)
13.0
13.0
-
5.0
5.0
-
24.0
24.0
-
% over line
58%
58%
58%
56%
58%
54%
42%
46%
38%
% under line
42%
42%
42%
44%
42%
46%
58%
54%
62%
This opponent (Wrexham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.5
Southampton
11.0
West Ham
11.0
Millwall
10.8
Middlesbrough
10.8
Portsmouth
10.8
Preston
10.7
Stoke
10.7
Cardiff
10.7
Blackburn
10.5
Norwich
10.4
Birmingham
10.3
Wrexham
10.3
Watford
10.2
QPR
10.2
Bolton
10.1
Bristol City
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Derby
9.9
Charlton
9.6
Wolves
9.5
Burnley
9.4
West Brom
9.3
Lincoln
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.5
Derby
4.1
Lincoln
4.1
Sheffield United
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Southampton
4.0
Stoke
3.9
Portsmouth
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Norwich
3.8
West Ham
3.8
Wolves
3.7
QPR
3.7
Bolton
3.7
Birmingham
3.7
Charlton
3.6
Middlesbrough
3.6
Millwall
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
West Brom
3.4
Preston
3.4
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.3
Lincoln
22.9
Derby
22.6
Swansea
22.5
Bolton
22.4
West Ham
22.4
Southampton
22.3
Portsmouth
22.1
Birmingham
22.0
Charlton
21.6
Sheffield United
21.5
Middlesbrough
21.4
Norwich
21.3
Watford
21.2
Blackburn
21.2
Bristol City
21.1
Cardiff
20.8
QPR
20.8
Millwall
20.6
Stoke
20.6
West Brom
20.5
Burnley
20.3
Preston
20.1
Wrexham
19.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
56.9%
@ 1.73+3.2%
Under 9.5
43.1%
@ 2.01-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.74
Betfair
1.73
Under
Pinnacle
2.10
Betano
2.10
1xBet
2.05
Unibet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.01
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
56.7%
@ 1.62-0.4%
Under 3.5
43.3%
@ 2.16+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Unibet
1.66
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.58
Under
Pinnacle
2.31
Superbet
2.25
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
37.6%
@ 1.83-11.2%
Under 21.5
62.4%
@ 1.74+11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.83
Under
Superbet
1.74
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Wrexham or Draw✓ Hit
74.7%
Avg Implied 75.6% · @ 1.24
Edge
-0.9%
38%
28%
34%
covers Wrexham + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
888Sport
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Wrexham or Watford✗ Miss
75.5%
Avg Implied 73.6% · @ 1.27
Edge
+1.9%
38%
28%
34%
covers Wrexham + Watford
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.30
Superbet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Unibet
1.28
Draw or Watford✓ Hit
49.8%
Avg Implied 50.8% · @ 1.84
Edge
-1.0%
38%
28%
34%
covers Draw + Watford
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.90
Betano
1.90
Unibet
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Superbet
1.85
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Wrexham over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
84.8%
@ 1.17+5.7%
Under
15.2%
@ 4.44-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
888Sport
1.18
Under
Betfair
4.80
1xBet
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Wrexham over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
56.2%
@ 1.91+7.3%
Under
43.8%
@ 1.82-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.99
888Sport
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.94
Superbet
1.92
Under
Pinnacle
1.86
Betfair
1.85
Marathonbet
1.83
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Wrexham over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
29.2%
@ 3.93+5.5%
Under
70.8%
@ 1.22-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.13
888Sport
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
BetVictor
4.00
Under
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Superbet
1.23
888Sport
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Wrexham over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
12.3%
@ 8.94+1.9%
Under
87.7%
@ 1.04-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
10.00
Bet365
10.00
1xBet
9.30
Marathonbet
9.30
Betfair
9.00
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Watford over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.7%
@ 1.42+7.2%
Under
27.3%
@ 2.69-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.45
888Sport
1.44
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.84
Betfair
2.75
Unibet
2.70
BetVictor
2.70
1xBet
2.68
Watford over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
37.2%
@ 3.10+7.1%
Under
62.8%
@ 1.33-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.23
Betfair
3.20
888Sport
3.10
1xBet
3.10
Under
Superbet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.34
Watford over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.2%
@ 7.90+2.4%
Under
85.8%
@ 1.06-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
9.00
Bet365
9.00
1xBet
8.60
Marathonbet
8.60
Betfair
8.00
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Watford over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.3%
@ 22.25-0.1%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.01+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
29.00
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Wrexham, so a minus line means Wrexham give that many goals of a start and Watford receive them. At -1, Wrexham must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Wrexham win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Wrexham)Actual: Watford
Wrexham -2
13.5%
@ 7.17+0.9%
Draw -2
15.5%
@ 5.40-1.1%
Watford +2
71.0%
@ 1.27+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
7.30
Unibet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Draw
Marathonbet
5.80
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.25
10Bet
5.25
Away
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Betfair
1.25
Handicap -1 (Wrexham)Actual: Watford
Wrexham -1
29.0%
@ 3.36+2.4%
Draw -1
21.2%
@ 3.63-3.5%
Watford +1
49.8%
@ 1.84+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Superbet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.34
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.72
Superbet
3.65
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Away
10Bet
1.85
Unibet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Betfair
1.83
Handicap +1 (Wrexham)Actual: Wrexham
Wrexham +1
74.7%
@ 1.23+1.7%
Draw +1
14.2%
@ 5.47-2.2%
Watford -1
11.1%
@ 8.47+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.60
Betfair
5.50
Superbet
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Away
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
8.70
10Bet
8.00
Unibet
8.00
Handicap +2 (Wrexham)Actual: Wrexham
Wrexham +2
88.9%
@ 1.05+1.7%
Draw +2
7.4%
@ 10.88-1.1%
Watford -2
3.7%
@ 21.25-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
Unibet
10.00
10Bet
8.50
Away
Betfair
26.00
Bet365
23.00
10Bet
19.00
Unibet
17.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Wrexham
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.63
1.20
0.80
0.60
0.47
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.84
1.09
1.00
0.38
0.62
vs Weaker (10)
1.10
0.20
1.67
0.00
0.86
0.29
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Watford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Watford
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.60
0.47
0.27
0.33
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.43
0.61
0.54
0.23
0.33
0.93
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Wrexham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.1%
@ 1.36+4.7%
Under 0.5
26.9%
@ 2.95-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.38
BetVictor
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
1xBet
1.36
Under
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.12
Superbet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
William Hil
3.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
34.6%
@ 2.69+0.0%
Under 1.5
65.4%
@ 1.42-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.85
Pinnacle
2.83
Bet365
2.75
Marathonbet
2.73
1xBet
2.73
Under
Superbet
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.44
William Hil
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.3%
@ 6.78-0.4%
Under 2.5
86.7%
@ 1.08+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.00
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.85
1xBet
6.85
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
William Hil
1.10
10Bet
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Wrexham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
54.7%
@ 1.81+3.3%
Under
45.3%
@ 1.91-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
1xBet
1.81
Unibet
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
1.99
10Bet
1.95
Superbet
1.92
Unibet
1.91
Betano
1.88
Wrexham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
24.3%
@ 5.09+6.1%
Under
75.7%
@ 1.13-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.45
1xBet
5.45
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.90
Unibet
4.90
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
Wrexham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.9%
@ 12.88-3.4%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.02+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Watford over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
38.9%
@ 2.43+0.8%
Under
61.1%
@ 1.50-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.55
Betano
2.47
Superbet
2.42
Marathonbet
2.40
Unibet
2.40
Under
Pinnacle
1.52
10Bet
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Superbet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Watford over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.3%
@ 8.74-1.3%
Under
90.7%
@ 1.04+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.80
Marathonbet
9.80
Superbet
8.20
Unibet
8.00
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
Watford over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.4%
@ 33.00-98.6%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
33.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Wrexham
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.93
0.80
1.00
0.73
0.87
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.84
1.21
0.91
1.09
0.75
1.38
vs Weaker (10)
0.60
0.40
0.33
0.67
0.71
0.29
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Watford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Watford
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.93
0.53
0.87
0.67
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.61
0.96
0.54
0.92
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Wrexham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
80.6%
Under 0.5
19.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
48.7%
Under 1.5
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
22.3%
Under 2.5
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Wrexham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
61.0%
Under
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wrexham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
26.4%
Under
73.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wrexham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.9%
Under
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Watford over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
49.5%
Under
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Watford over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.9%
Under
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Watford over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
-
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-0.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.7%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
89.7%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-2.3%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
88.9%
1.05
Unibet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
87.7%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.7%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.10
William Hil
1.10
10Bet
1.08
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
85.8%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
-2.4%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
84.8%
1.17
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
888Sport
1.18
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
78.5%
1.29
Superbet
1.29
-
-
-
-
+9.1%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
78.4%
1.11
Pinnacle
1.14
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
-6.2%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.8%
1.26
Betano
1.30
Pinnacle
1.29
Superbet
1.28
BetVictor
1.28
Bet365
1.28
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
76.2%
1.24
Superbet
1.24
-
-
-
-
+4.4%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
75.7%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Unibet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
-6.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.5%
1.27
888Sport
1.30
Superbet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Unibet
1.28
+1.9%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
74.7%
1.24
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
888Sport
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
William Hil
1.25
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
74.7%
1.23
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.1%
1.36
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.38
BetVictor
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
1xBet
1.36
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
72.7%
1.42
Pinnacle
1.45
888Sport
1.44
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
71.0%
1.27
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Betfair
1.25
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
70.8%
1.22
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Superbet
1.23
888Sport
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-5.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Wrexham
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kieffer Moore40%
Daniel Imray20%
Callum Doyle20%
Matty James0%
Zak Vyner0%
Anthony Patterson0%
Ben Whiteman0%
Dominic Hyam0%
Oliver Rathbone0%
Sam Smith0%
Lewis O'Brien0%
Nathan Broadhead0%
Ryan Longman0%
George Thomason0%
Bailey Cadamarteri0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ben Whiteman40%
Dominic Hyam40%
Bailey Cadamarteri33%
Nathan Broadhead25%
Kieffer Moore20%
Sam Smith20%
Lewis O'Brien20%
Callum Doyle20%
Matty James0%
Zak Vyner0%
Anthony Patterson0%
Oliver Rathbone0%
Ryan Longman0%
George Thomason0%
Daniel Imray0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Daniel Imray40%
Lewis O'Brien20%
Matty James0%
Zak Vyner0%
Kieffer Moore0%
Anthony Patterson0%
Ben Whiteman0%
Dominic Hyam0%
Oliver Rathbone0%
Sam Smith0%
Nathan Broadhead0%
Ryan Longman0%
George Thomason0%
Callum Doyle0%
Bailey Cadamarteri0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kieffer Moore40%
Sam Smith20%
Daniel Imray20%
Callum Doyle20%
Matty James0%
Zak Vyner0%
Anthony Patterson0%
Ben Whiteman0%
Dominic Hyam0%
Oliver Rathbone0%
Lewis O'Brien0%
Nathan Broadhead0%
Ryan Longman0%
George Thomason0%
Bailey Cadamarteri0%
Watford
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Amin Nabizada33%
Luca Kjerrumgaard25%
Iker Bravo20%
M. Doumbia17%
E. Kayembe0%
M. Payero0%
M. Pollock0%
J. Zemura0%
O. Traoré0%
F. Ravaglia0%
H. Kyprianou0%
Edoardo Bove0%
K. Keben0%
R. Vata0%
Othmane Maamma0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
H. Kyprianou33%
Edoardo Bove33%
K. Keben33%
Othmane Maamma33%
J. Zemura25%
M. Payero20%
M. Pollock20%
O. Traoré20%
Iker Bravo20%
M. Doumbia17%
Amin Nabizada17%
E. Kayembe0%
F. Ravaglia0%
R. Vata0%
Luca Kjerrumgaard0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
O. Traoré20%
Amin Nabizada17%
E. Kayembe0%
M. Payero0%
M. Pollock0%
J. Zemura0%
F. Ravaglia0%
H. Kyprianou0%
Edoardo Bove0%
K. Keben0%
R. Vata0%
Iker Bravo0%
Luca Kjerrumgaard0%
Othmane Maamma0%
M. Doumbia0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luca Kjerrumgaard50%
Iker Bravo40%
M. Payero20%
H. Kyprianou17%
M. Doumbia17%
E. Kayembe0%
M. Pollock0%
J. Zemura0%
O. Traoré0%
F. Ravaglia0%
Edoardo Bove0%
K. Keben0%
R. Vata0%
Othmane Maamma0%
Amin Nabizada0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Wrexham's squad is €12m less valuable than Watford's (€77m vs €88m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Wrexham's attack is €13m less valuable than Watford's (€15m vs €28m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Wrexham's midfield is €16m less valuable than Watford's (€23m vs €38m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Wrexham's defence is €17m more valuable than Watford's (€39m vs €22m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Swansea
QPR
Charlton
Southampton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
West Brom
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Millwall
West Ham
Blackburn
Bolton
Derby
Lincoln
Cardiff
Norwich
Portsmouth
Stoke
Burnley
Preston