York vs Yeovil Result & Analysis

Date: 18/04/2026

Time: 17:30

Final 3-0

York

72%

18%

10%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Yeovil

England: National League

Referee: D Drysdale

Match preview & prediction

York is the clear favourite to win against Yeovil, with the model predicting a 72% chance of a home win. This confidence stems from Yeovil's struggles away from home, where they have averaged just 0.75 goals scored and 1.33 conceded against similar-strength opponents. Meanwhile, York has been unbeaten in their last 5 matches, including a 3-2 win over Bristol Rovers, and has averaged 3 goals scored and 1.22 conceded at home. The model predicts an expected total of 3.2 goals, with the most likely outcome being a 3-0 scoreline, which has a 22% probability. The most likely score is 2-0, but the model's selection is 3-0. The model's selections include Over 1.5 goals, with an 83.5% chance of hitting, and Home win, with a 72% chance of being correct. The probabilities for the match outcome are 72% for a home win, 18% for a draw, and 10% for an away win.

Results analysis

The win extends York's unbeaten run to six matches, having previously beaten Bristol Rovers 3-2. The final score of 3-0 was a decisive victory for the home side, aligning with the actual result of a home win. The model's selection, Home win, was the favourite with a 72% pre-match probability, and its call was correct. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals also came in, with a probability of 83.5%. The model's other selection, Home win, was the favourite and its call was correct. The model's selection of Home win was the favourite with a 72% pre-match probability, and its call was correct.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

York win✓ Hit

72.0%

Avg Implied 86.1% · @ 1.06

Edge

-14.1%

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

Draw✗ Miss

18.2%

Avg Implied 10.0% · @ 9.17

Edge

+8.3%

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

Yeovil win✗ Miss

9.8%

Avg Implied 4.0% · @ 23.00

Edge

+5.9%

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

York

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.7

Avg scored

1.9

Avg conceded

0.8

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	2.67	0.87	3.20	0.87	2.13	0.87
vs Stronger (1)	2.00	3.00	-	-	2.00	3.00
vs Similar (19)	2.42	0.95	3.00	1.22	1.90	0.70
vs Weaker (10)	3.20	0.50	3.50	0.33	2.75	0.75
Clean sheet %	43% (+17pp vs league)

This opponent (Yeovil) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Yeovil

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.4

Avg scored

1.0

Avg conceded

1.4

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.00	1.37	1.20	1.27	0.80	1.47
vs Stronger (1)	2.00	3.00	-	-	2.00	3.00
vs Similar (26)	1.00	1.35	1.21	1.36	0.75	1.33
vs Weaker (3)	0.67	1.00	1.00	0.00	0.50	1.50
Clean sheet %	23% (-3pp vs league)

This opponent (York) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

83.5%

Under 1.5

16.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

61.7%

@ 1.33-8.2%

Under 2.5

38.3%

@ 3.09+8.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under

Over 3.5

39.4%

Under 3.5

60.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Both teams to scoreActual: No

Yes

50.6%

49.4%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

2-0

11.8%

3-0 ✓

9.4%

2-1

9.4%

1-0

9.1%

1-1

8.7%

3-1

7.5%

4-0

5.6%

0-0

4.9%

York goals ↓

	Yeovil goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.9%	2.5%	1.3%	0.3%	0.1%
1	9.1%	8.7%	3.1%	0.8%	0.2%
2	12%	9.4%	3.7%	1.0%	0.2%
3	9.4%	7.5%	3.0%	0.8%	0.2%
4	5.6%	4.5%	1.8%	0.5%	0.1%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = York goals (down), columns = Yeovil goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

York

2.35

Rochdale

2.30

Carlisle

2.07

Boreham Wood

1.96

Scunthorpe

1.78

Forest Green

1.76

Southend

1.76

Halifax

1.52

Hartlepool

1.48

Woking

1.37

Tamworth

1.35

Boston Utd

1.28

Altrincham

1.24

Solihull

1.22

Wealdstone

1.22

Yeovil

1.11

Gateshead

1.09

Eastleigh

1.09

Sutton

1.02

Aldershot

1.00

Brackley Town

0.91

Morecambe

0.83

Braintree Town

0.78

Truro

0.74

York is 1.24 points better than Yeovil in terms of average points per game (2.35 vs 1.11).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

York

2.48

Boreham Wood

2.07

Rochdale

1.91

Carlisle

1.89

Southend

1.80

Forest Green

1.78

Scunthorpe

1.72

Solihull

1.54

Halifax

1.50

Woking

1.50

Aldershot

1.50

Wealdstone

1.48

Morecambe

1.43

Boston Utd

1.37

Tamworth

1.37

Sutton

1.28

Eastleigh

1.24

Altrincham

1.20

Gateshead

1.17

Hartlepool

1.17

Yeovil

1.04

Truro

0.91

Brackley Town

0.87

Braintree Town

0.83

York is 1.43 goals better than Yeovil in terms of goals scored per game (2.48 vs 1.04).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Rochdale

0.89

York

0.89

Southend

1.02

Carlisle

1.11

Forest Green

1.13

Woking

1.17

Boreham Wood

1.26

Hartlepool

1.28

Scunthorpe

1.37

Altrincham

1.41

Halifax

1.43

Boston Utd

1.46

Yeovil

1.48

Tamworth

1.54

Solihull

1.57

Truro

1.57

Brackley Town

1.63

Braintree Town

1.65

Wealdstone

1.65

Sutton

1.72

Eastleigh

1.74

Aldershot

1.89

Gateshead

1.96

Morecambe

2.24

York is 0.59 goals better than Yeovil in terms of goals conceded per game (0.89 vs 1.48).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %

York

62%

Boreham Wood

58%

Wealdstone

57%

Rochdale

56%

Sutton

54%

Aldershot

54%

Forest Green

53%

Southend

52%

Altrincham

52%

Gateshead

50%

Woking

50%

Scunthorpe

49%

Morecambe

49%

Carlisle

49%

Solihull

48%

Braintree Town

48%

Halifax

48%

Hartlepool

47%

Yeovil

47%

Truro

44%

Eastleigh

41%

Brackley Town

40%

Tamworth

38%

York is 15.6 percentage points better than Yeovil in terms of average possession (62% vs 47%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔥 5. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Over 1.5	83.5%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Home win	72.0%	1.06	-	-	-	-	-	-14.1%	✓ Hit

💰 6. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

WEA (2)

€0m

MOR (2)

€0m

SCU (1)

€0m

CAR (1)

€0m

ALT (2)

€0m

HAR (1)

€0m

YOR (2)

€0m

SOU (1)

€0m

SUT (1)

€0m

SOL (1)

€0m

ROC (1)

€0m

BT (1)

€0m

BU (1)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

SCU (1)

€0m

SOU (1)

€0m

SOL (1)

€0m

ROC (1)

€0m

ALT (1)

€0m

WEA (1)

€0m

MOR (1)

€0m

CAR (0)

€0m

BU (0)

€0m

YOR (0)

€0m

BT (0)

€0m

SUT (0)

€0m

HAR (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

MOR (1)

€0m

WEA (1)

€0m

CAR (1)

€0m

ALT (1)

€0m

SUT (1)

€0m

SCU (0)

€0m

BU (0)

€0m

ROC (0)

€0m

YOR (0)

€0m

SOU (0)

€0m

SOL (0)

€0m

BT (0)

€0m

HAR (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

HAR (1)

€0m

YOR (2)

€0m

BT (1)

€0m

BU (1)

€0m

SCU (0)

€0m

CAR (0)

€0m

ROC (0)

€0m

SOU (0)

€0m

ALT (0)

€0m

SOL (0)

€0m

SUT (0)

€0m

MOR (0)

€0m

WEA (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 7. Games History

Head-to-head

York vs Yeovil · H/A from YOR

Date	H/A	Game	Score
06/09/25	A	Yeovil Vs YOR	1-3
15/03/25	A	Yeovil Vs YOR	0-1
23/11/24	H	YOR Vs Yeovil	4-0
25/02/23	H	YOR Vs Yeovil	2-1
03/09/22	A	Yeovil Vs YOR	0-1

York

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
11/04/26	A	Tamworth Vs YOR	0-1
06/04/26	H	YOR Vs Altrincham	2-1
03/04/26	A	Boston Utd Vs YOR	0-1
28/03/26	H	YOR Vs Woking	1-0
24/03/26	A	Gateshead Vs YOR	3-1
21/03/26	H	YOR Vs Brackley Town	4-0
14/03/26	A	Aldershot Vs YOR	0-3
07/03/26	H	YOR Vs Eastleigh	3-1
03/03/26	A	Boreham Wood Vs YOR	3-2
28/02/26	A	Morecambe Vs YOR	0-1

Yeovil

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
11/04/26	H	YEO Vs Halifax	0-0
06/04/26	A	Eastleigh Vs YEO	2-1
03/04/26	H	YEO Vs Truro	1-0
31/03/26	A	Southend Vs YEO	2-1
28/03/26	A	Gateshead Vs YEO	2-1
25/03/26	A	Wealdstone Vs YEO	0-2
21/03/26	H	YEO Vs Morecambe	3-2
17/03/26	A	Woking Vs YEO	1-0
14/03/26	A	Boston Utd Vs YEO	2-1
07/03/26	H	YEO Vs Scunthorpe	0-3

📊 8. Overall Statistics

York

England: National League

Recent: 8 Wins / 0 Draws / 2 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	LWWWW	2.40
Home	WWWWW	2.36
Away	LWLWW	2.44

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	74%	72%	76%
AVG goals	3.46	4.00	2.92
Over 1.5 %	88%	92%	84%
Over 2.5 %	70%	80%	60%
Over 3.5 %	52%	72%	32%
Scored	2.56	3.04	2.08
Conceded	0.90	0.96	0.84
BTTS	58%	60%	56%
Clean Sheet	40%	36%	44%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	3.80	3.52	4.08

Yeovil

England: National League

Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	LLWLD	1.10
Home	WLWWD	1.44
Away	LWLLL	0.76

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	32%	40%	24%
AVG goals	2.46	2.56	2.36
Over 1.5 %	70%	76%	64%
Over 2.5 %	50%	48%	52%
Over 3.5 %	16%	20%	12%
Scored	1.06	1.20	0.92
Conceded	1.40	1.36	1.44
BTTS	50%	56%	44%
Clean Sheet	22%	24%	20%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	4.08	4.32	3.84

🏆 9. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	York	46	108	72%	2.3	114	41	+73	3.4	87%	72%	50%	-	0%	3.9	52%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.5	0.9	62%
2	Rochdale	46	106	72%	2.3	88	41	+47	2.8	80%	59%	28%	-	0%	3.1	48%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.9	0.9	56%
3	Carlisle	46	95	63%	2.1	87	51	+36	3.0	83%	61%	30%	-	0%	3.6	52%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.9	1.1	49%
4	Boreham Wood	46	90	59%	2.0	95	58	+37	3.3	89%	72%	39%	-	0%	3.2	43%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.1	1.3	58%
5	Scunthorpe	46	82	50%	1.8	79	63	+16	3.1	87%	61%	35%	-	0%	4.1	63%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.7	1.4	49%
6	Southend	46	81	50%	1.8	83	47	+36	2.8	83%	52%	20%	-	0%	3.7	54%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.8	1.0	52%
7	Forest Green	46	81	50%	1.8	82	52	+30	2.9	85%	52%	33%	-	0%	4.2	65%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.8	1.1	53%
8	Halifax	46	70	43%	1.5	69	66	+3	2.9	80%	63%	28%	-	0%	4.5	72%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	1.4	48%
9	Hartlepool	46	68	39%	1.5	54	59	-5	2.5	67%	41%	24%	-	0%	3.2	46%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.2	1.3	47%
10	Woking	46	63	35%	1.4	69	54	+15	2.7	76%	48%	30%	-	0%	4.1	57%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	1.2	50%
11	Tamworth	46	62	37%	1.3	63	71	-8	2.9	78%	54%	33%	-	0%	3.8	63%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.4	1.5	38%
12	Boston Utd	46	59	33%	1.3	63	67	-4	2.8	78%	54%	28%	-	0%	4.1	61%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.4	1.5	-
13	Altrincham	46	57	37%	1.2	55	65	-10	2.6	76%	57%	20%	-	0%	4.6	70%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.2	1.4	52%
14	Solihull	46	56	30%	1.2	71	72	-1	3.1	78%	52%	33%	-	0%	3.9	65%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	1.6	48%
15	Wealdstone	46	56	33%	1.2	68	76	-8	3.1	87%	57%	35%	-	0%	3.7	52%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	1.7	57%
16	Yeovil	46	51	33%	1.1	48	68	-20	2.5	70%	50%	20%	-	0%	4.1	59%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	1.5	47%
17	Eastleigh	46	50	28%	1.1	57	80	-23	3.0	85%	57%	35%	-	0%	4.2	61%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.2	1.7	41%
18	Gateshead	46	50	30%	1.1	54	90	-36	3.1	85%	65%	35%	-	0%	3.4	50%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.2	2.0	50%
19	Sutton	46	47	24%	1.0	59	79	-20	3.0	80%	61%	33%	-	0%	4.5	65%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.3	1.7	54%
20	Aldershot	46	46	28%	1.0	69	87	-18	3.4	89%	70%	41%	-	0%	4.7	70%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.5	1.9	54%
21	Brackley Town	46	42	22%	0.9	40	75	-35	2.5	74%	43%	20%	-	0%	4.1	59%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.9	1.6	40%
22	Morecambe	46	38	20%	0.8	66	103	-37	3.7	89%	70%	50%	-	0%	3.8	57%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.4	2.2	49%
23	Braintree Town	46	36	17%	0.8	38	76	-38	2.5	70%	48%	26%	-	0%	4.0	54%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.8	1.7	48%
24	Truro	46	34	17%	0.7	42	72	-30	2.5	74%	43%	24%	-	0%	3.3	46%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.9	1.6	44%

England: National League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →

← all matches

York vs Yeovil Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

York

Yeovil

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

🔥 5. Top picks for this game

💰 6. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 7. Games History

Head-to-head

York

Yeovil

📊 8. Overall Statistics

🏆 9. League Table

A Pro feature