Atalanta are the clear favourites, with a 48% chance of victory, a 28% chance of a draw and a 24% chance of Bologna winning. The model predicts a 2-goal total, most likely 1-1 with a 13.5% probability. Atalanta’s home form shows they average 1.44 goals scored and 0.56 conceded against weaker opposition, while Bologna’s away form is tougher, with 1.6 goals scored and 2.2 conceded against stronger teams. The model’s selection list includes Under 7.5 (99.6%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.9% with a 6% edge), Under 6.5 (98.7% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.7% with a 6% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.5% with a 3% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.6% with a 6% edge), Under 5.5 (96.2% with a 4% edge), and Home under 3.5 goals (95.2% with a 6% edge). The match is set for a tight contest, but Atalanta’s home advantage and recent winning run give them the edge.
Results analysis
Atalanta’s 3-game winning run continued as they edged Bologna 1-0, confirming the model’s home-win pick and the predicted 1-0 scoreline. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 46% probability and proved correct. The model’s selections largely hit: Under 7.5 goals (99.6%) was satisfied, Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.0%) and Under 6.5 (98.7%) both came through, as did Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.3%) and Away under 3.5 goals (97.5%). Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.4%) and Under 5.5 (96.2%) were also fulfilled, along with Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.2%). The match delivered a low-scoring, home-favoured outcome that matched the model’s expectations.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Atalanta win✓ Hit
46.2%
Avg Implied 49.7% · @ 1.92
Edge
-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.97
Betfair
1.95
Pinnacle
1.95
Betano
1.95
Superbet
1.95
Draw✗ Miss
28.8%
Avg Implied 26.7% · @ 3.57
Edge
+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.70
Pinnacle
3.66
Dafabet
3.65
Betano
3.65
Marathonbet
3.64
Bologna win✗ Miss
25.0%
Avg Implied 23.6% · @ 4.04
Edge
+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.22
Betano
4.15
Marathonbet
4.15
Unibet
4.10
Betfair
4.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Atalanta
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.17
1.53
1.13
1.27
1.20
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
5.00
1.00
6.00
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (13)
1.31
1.08
1.80
1.20
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (15)
1.53
0.73
1.44
0.56
1.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Bologna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bologna
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.43
0.81
1.50
1.64
1.36
vs Stronger (12)
1.17
2.25
1.00
2.29
1.40
2.20
vs Similar (16)
1.12
0.75
0.62
0.75
1.62
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Atalanta) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
72.1%
@ 1.29-1.2%
Under 1.5
27.9%
@ 3.54+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Under
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.74
Unibet
3.65
Superbet
3.65
Betano
3.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.1%
@ 1.91-4.7%
Under 2.5
54.9%
@ 1.90+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.97
SBO
1.97
Pinnacle
1.96
Betano
1.93
Unibet
1.92
Under
1xBet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.94
Betano
1.93
SBO
1.91
Marathonbet
1.91
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.8%
@ 3.21-5.6%
Under 3.5
76.2%
@ 1.34+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.34
Unibet
3.30
10Bet
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Superbet
3.25
Under
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Betfair
1.33
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.3%
@ 1.75-2.9%
No
49.7%
@ 1.99+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.78
Unibet
1.76
Betfair
1.75
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.75
No
Betano
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Bet365
2.00
BetVictor
2.00
Unibet
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%@ 6.38+6.3%
1-0 ✓
11.0%@ 6.91+4.2%
0-0
9.6%@ 9.92+4.9%
2-1
9.1%@ 8.30+3.4%
2-0
9.0%@ 8.86+3.6%
0-1
7.3%@ 10.85+2.9%
1-2
6.3%@ 12.12+2.4%
2-2
4.6%@ 13.27+1.1%
Atalanta goals ↓
Bologna goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.6%
7.3%
4.3%
1.5%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.3%
2.1%
0.5%
2
9.0%
9.1%
4.6%
1.6%
0.4%
3
4.4%
4.5%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.6%
1.6%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Atalanta goals (down), columns = Bologna goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter
2.29
Napoli
2.00
AS Roma
1.92
Como
1.87
AC Milan
1.84
Juventus
1.82
Atalanta
1.55
Bologna
1.47
Lazio
1.42
Udinese
1.32
Sassuolo
1.29
Parma
1.18
Torino
1.18
Cagliari
1.13
Venezia
1.12
Fiorentina
1.11
Genoa
1.08
Frosinone
1.03
Monza
1.01
Lecce
1.00
Atalanta is 0.08 points better than Bologna in terms of average points per game (1.55 vs 1.47).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter
2.34
Como
1.71
Juventus
1.61
AS Roma
1.55
Napoli
1.53
AC Milan
1.39
Atalanta
1.34
Bologna
1.29
Sassuolo
1.21
Udinese
1.18
Torino
1.16
Lazio
1.08
Genoa
1.08
Fiorentina
1.08
Cagliari
1.05
Venezia
1.00
Frosinone
0.91
Monza
0.90
Parma
0.74
Lecce
0.74
Atalanta is 0.05 goals better than Bologna in terms of goals scored per game (1.34 vs 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Como
0.76
AS Roma
0.82
Juventus
0.89
AC Milan
0.92
Inter
0.92
Napoli
0.95
Atalanta
0.95
Lazio
1.05
Parma
1.21
Bologna
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Lecce
1.32
Sassuolo
1.32
Fiorentina
1.32
Genoa
1.34
Cagliari
1.39
Venezia
1.48
Frosinone
1.62
Monza
1.64
Torino
1.66
Atalanta is 0.26 goals better than Bologna in terms of goals conceded per game (0.95 vs 1.21).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Como
62%
Inter
60%
Napoli
59%
Juventus
58%
AS Roma
56%
Atalanta
55%
Bologna
55%
AC Milan
52%
Fiorentina
51%
Lazio
50%
Genoa
49%
Sassuolo
46%
Udinese
46%
Cagliari
46%
Torino
44%
Parma
44%
Lecce
42%
Atalanta is 0.1 percentage points better than Bologna in terms of average possession (55% vs 55%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Atalanta
For 5.1 · Against 3.7 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 9.2 · Total 21.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bologna
For 4.4 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 14.5 · Total 27.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Atalanta
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.3
9.3
3.1
3.1
3.2
21.9
22.6
21.2
vs Stronger (3)
8.3
9.0
8.0
1.7
4.0
0.5
16.7
22.0
14.0
vs Similar (25)
9.0
9.5
8.6
3.9
3.7
4.2
21.6
22.0
21.2
vs Weaker (22)
9.7
9.1
10.3
2.5
2.4
2.5
22.9
23.3
22.5
% over line
38%
32%
44%
42%
36%
48%
52%
60%
44%
% under line
62%
68%
56%
58%
64%
52%
48%
40%
56%
This opponent (Bologna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bologna
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.8
9.0
4.0
3.7
4.4
28.5
27.1
30.0
vs Stronger (16)
9.1
9.7
8.4
3.5
3.3
3.7
28.3
27.1
29.9
vs Similar (32)
9.6
10.0
9.2
4.3
3.9
4.8
28.7
27.2
30.2
vs Weaker (2)
8.5
8.0
9.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
26.0
25.0
27.0
% over line
44%
46%
42%
54%
46%
62%
86%
81%
92%
% under line
56%
54%
58%
46%
54%
38%
14%
19%
8%
This opponent (Atalanta) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Frosinone
10.2
Lecce
9.9
Juventus
9.7
Bologna
9.4
Inter
9.3
Atalanta
9.3
Udinese
9.2
Venezia
9.0
Monza
9.0
Cagliari
9.0
Fiorentina
8.9
Sassuolo
8.8
Lazio
8.7
AS Roma
8.6
AC Milan
8.6
Genoa
8.6
Parma
8.5
Torino
8.4
Napoli
8.4
Como
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lazio
5.3
Fiorentina
4.9
Frosinone
4.8
Como
4.5
Genoa
4.4
Sassuolo
4.4
Monza
4.3
Venezia
4.3
AS Roma
4.2
Bologna
4.1
Cagliari
3.9
Parma
3.8
Lecce
3.8
AC Milan
3.7
Udinese
3.7
Juventus
3.7
Atalanta
3.6
Napoli
3.4
Torino
3.4
Inter
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Frosinone
30.3
Venezia
29.6
Bologna
28.5
Fiorentina
28.3
AS Roma
28.2
Genoa
27.1
Monza
27.0
Cagliari
26.8
Como
26.1
Lecce
25.5
Udinese
25.1
Lazio
24.9
Sassuolo
24.6
Parma
24.4
Torino
24.2
Inter
23.9
Juventus
23.5
Napoli
23.3
Atalanta
21.9
AC Milan
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
35.6%
@ 1.99-11.2%
Under 9.5
64.4%
@ 1.75+11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.03
Superbet
2.02
Betano
2.02
Bet365
2.00
Unibet
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.80
Betano
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Superbet
1.75
Betfair
1.75
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.9%
@ 2.58+11.9%
Under 3.5
52.1%
@ 1.45-11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.69
Unibet
2.65
Superbet
2.50
Betano
2.47
Under
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.46
Pinnacle
1.44
Unibet
1.40
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
79.0%
@ 1.29+8.4%
Under 21.5
21.0%
@ 3.10-8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.29
Under
1xBet
3.10
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Atalanta or Draw✓ Hit
71.2%
Avg Implied 76.2% · @ 1.24
Edge
-5.0%
46%
29%
25%
covers Atalanta + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.27
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
Superbet
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Atalanta or Bologna✓ Hit
70.3%
Avg Implied 73.7% · @ 1.28
Edge
-3.4%
46%
29%
25%
covers Atalanta + Bologna
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
Superbet
1.31
William Hil
1.29
Unibet
1.29
Draw or Bologna✗ Miss
58.5%
Avg Implied 50.1% · @ 1.89
Edge
+8.4%
46%
29%
25%
covers Draw + Bologna
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.95
SBO
1.94
1xBet
1.93
Marathonbet
1.92
Betano
1.91
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Atalanta over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
74.1%
@ 1.18-4.9%
Under
25.9%
@ 4.42+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
Under
Betfair
4.80
1xBet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Superbet
4.35
Atalanta over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
39.1%
@ 1.93-9.3%
Under
60.9%
@ 1.81+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
Betfair
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Betano
1.93
Under
Pinnacle
1.86
Marathonbet
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Betano
1.82
Superbet
1.82
Atalanta over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.5%
@ 4.02-7.8%
Under
84.5%
@ 1.22+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.18
1xBet
4.10
BetVictor
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Under
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
Atalanta over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.8%
@ 8.84-5.7%
Under
95.2%
@ 1.04+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
1xBet
9.90
Marathonbet
9.00
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
8.60
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
Bologna over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
66.3%
@ 1.44+1.8%
Under
33.7%
@ 2.63-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.48
1xBet
1.46
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.45
10Bet
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.77
Betfair
2.75
Betano
2.62
Bet365
2.62
Superbet
2.62
Bologna over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
29.6%
@ 3.20+0.4%
Under
70.4%
@ 1.32-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.37
Marathonbet
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Unibet
3.20
Under
1xBet
1.36
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Bologna over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.7%
@ 8.39-1.4%
Under
90.3%
@ 1.05+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
Marathonbet
9.00
1xBet
8.90
Superbet
8.00
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
Bologna over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.5%
@ 20.33-2.3%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.01+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Atalanta, so a minus line means Atalanta give that many goals of a start and Bologna receive them. At -1, Atalanta must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Atalanta win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Atalanta)Actual: Bologna
Atalanta -2
7.3%
@ 7.33-5.1%
Draw -2
12.7%
@ 5.39-4.1%
Bologna +2
80.1%
@ 1.28+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Superbet
7.10
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Draw
Marathonbet
5.55
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Superbet
5.45
10Bet
5.25
Away
Superbet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.28
Handicap -1 (Atalanta)Actual: Draw
Atalanta -1
19.9%
@ 3.42-6.5%
Draw -1
21.6%
@ 3.62-3.5%
Bologna +1
58.5%
@ 1.87+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.40
Superbet
3.40
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.50
Away
Marathonbet
1.92
Superbet
1.90
Unibet
1.88
10Bet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Handicap +1 (Atalanta)Actual: Atalanta
Atalanta +1
71.2%
@ 1.24-2.4%
Draw +1
17.1%
@ 5.57+0.8%
Bologna -1
11.7%
@ 8.98+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.21
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.65
Marathonbet
5.60
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.40
Away
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
10.00
Unibet
9.00
Marathonbet
8.50
Superbet
8.40
Handicap +2 (Atalanta)Actual: Atalanta
Atalanta +2
88.3%
@ 1.05+0.2%
Draw +2
8.2%
@ 11.50+0.2%
Bologna -2
3.5%
@ 23.67-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
13.00
10Bet
8.50
Away
Bet365
26.00
Betfair
26.00
10Bet
19.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Atalanta
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.47
0.73
0.33
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.62
0.46
0.80
0.20
0.50
0.62
vs Weaker (15)
0.73
0.27
0.78
0.11
0.67
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Bologna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bologna
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.19
0.69
0.93
0.50
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
1.25
0.29
1.29
0.80
1.20
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.12
0.12
0.25
0.75
0.00
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Atalanta) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
69.1%
@ 1.38+1.1%
Under 0.5
30.9%
@ 2.92-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
1xBet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
Superbet
1.39
BetVictor
1.38
Under
Pinnacle
3.11
Betfair
3.00
William Hil
3.00
Superbet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
33.6%
@ 2.76-0.2%
Under 1.5
66.4%
@ 1.41+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.88
Betano
2.87
Marathonbet
2.85
1xBet
2.85
Superbet
2.77
Under
Superbet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.43
BetVictor
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.0%
@ 7.04-2.2%
Under 2.5
89.0%
@ 1.08+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
BetVictor
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
7.10
1xBet
7.10
Under
Superbet
1.10
Betano
1.10
Unibet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
10Bet
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Atalanta over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
52.7%
@ 1.81+1.3%
Under
47.3%
@ 1.91-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathonbet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Unibet
1.79
Under
Pinnacle
1.99
10Bet
1.95
Superbet
1.92
Unibet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.88
Atalanta over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
17.7%
@ 5.08-0.5%
Under
82.3%
@ 1.13+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.35
1xBet
5.35
10Bet
5.00
Unibet
5.00
Betano
4.90
Under
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Atalanta over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.6%
@ 12.88-3.8%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.02+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Bologna over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
36.6%
@ 2.48-0.9%
Under
63.4%
@ 1.49+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.62
Unibet
2.50
Betano
2.50
1xBet
2.46
Marathonbet
2.46
Under
10Bet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.48
Bologna over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.2%
@ 9.00-3.1%
Under
92.8%
@ 1.03+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.80
Marathonbet
9.80
Unibet
9.00
Superbet
8.50
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
Unibet
1.01
Bologna over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.0%
@ 24.50-3.0%
Under
99.0%
@ 1.01+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
35.00
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Atalanta
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.70
0.80
0.80
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.62
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.38
vs Weaker (15)
0.80
0.47
0.67
0.44
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Bologna) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bologna
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.83
0.62
0.81
0.71
0.86
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
1.00
0.71
1.00
0.60
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.62
0.50
0.50
0.88
0.75
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Atalanta) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.7%
@ 1.23+1.7%
Under 0.5
22.3%
@ 3.90-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
Under
Superbet
4.00
Betano
3.95
Unibet
3.95
1xBet
3.94
Marathonbet
3.94
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
43.1%
@ 2.08-1.9%
Under 1.5
56.9%
@ 1.71+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.15
1xBet
2.13
Marathonbet
2.13
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.05
Under
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.74
Superbet
1.71
10Bet
1.70
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.1%
@ 4.46-5.9%
Under 2.5
84.9%
@ 1.18+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.65
William Hil
4.60
1xBet
4.55
Marathonbet
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Under
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.20
William Hil
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Atalanta over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
59.2%
@ 1.57+0.0%
Under
40.8%
@ 2.28-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.58
1xBet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Under
Betano
2.32
1xBet
2.28
Superbet
2.25
Atalanta over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
20.8%
@ 3.67-4.4%
Under
79.2%
@ 1.24+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.72
10Bet
3.70
1xBet
3.70
Betano
3.50
Under
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Atalanta over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.8%
@ 9.10-5.4%
Under
95.2%
@ 1.03+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
10.00
1xBet
9.30
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Bologna over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
44.9%
@ 2.04-0.6%
Under
55.1%
@ 1.71+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.06
1xBet
2.05
Superbet
2.05
Betano
2.00
Under
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.70
Superbet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.68
Bologna over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.1%
@ 6.24-3.7%
Under
88.9%
@ 1.09+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.85
1xBet
6.60
Superbet
6.30
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
Bologna over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 16.38-4.2%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.02+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
21.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.3%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.2%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.02
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.2%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.2%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.8%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
Unibet
1.01
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
90.3%
1.05
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
89.9%
1.10
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.10
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.0%
1.08
Superbet
1.10
Betano
1.10
Unibet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
10Bet
1.08
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.9%
1.09
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
88.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
-
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.9%
1.18
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.20
William Hil
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
84.8%
1.11
Betano
1.11
-
-
-
-
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
84.5%
1.22
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
84.3%
1.25
Superbet
1.31
Betano
1.26
Betfair
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
+11.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.3%
1.13
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
80.1%
1.28
Superbet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.28
+9.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.2%
1.24
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
79.0%
1.29
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
-
+8.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.7%
1.23
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.2%
1.34
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Betfair
1.33
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
75.6%
1.44
Superbet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.47
Betano
1.45
Betfair
1.45
Unibet
1.42
+11.7%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
74.1%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
-4.9%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.1%
1.29
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Superbet
1.29
-1.2%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
71.2%
1.22
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.19
-
-
-
-4.8%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
71.2%
1.24
1xBet
1.27
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
Superbet
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
-5.0%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
71.2%
1.24
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.21
-2.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
70.4%
1.32
1xBet
1.36
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.3%
1.28
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
Superbet
1.31
William Hil
1.29
Unibet
1.29
-3.4%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Atalanta
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Giacomo Raspadori25%
Gianluca Scamacca25%
Nikola Krstović25%
Lazar Samardžić25%
Gianluca Gaetano0%
Sead Kolašinac0%
Mario Pašalić0%
Éderson0%
Marco Carnesecchi0%
Odilon Kossounou0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Charles De Ketelaere0%
Nicola Zalewski0%
Lorenzo Bernasconi0%
Giorgio Scalvini0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Giacomo Raspadori25%
Nikola Krstović25%
Gianluca Gaetano0%
Sead Kolašinac0%
Mario Pašalić0%
Éderson0%
Marco Carnesecchi0%
Gianluca Scamacca0%
Odilon Kossounou0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Charles De Ketelaere0%
Lazar Samardžić0%
Nicola Zalewski0%
Lorenzo Bernasconi0%
Giorgio Scalvini0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Gianluca Gaetano25%
Nicola Zalewski25%
Sead Kolašinac0%
Mario Pašalić0%
Éderson0%
Marco Carnesecchi0%
Giacomo Raspadori0%
Gianluca Scamacca0%
Odilon Kossounou0%
Nikola Krstović0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Charles De Ketelaere0%
Lazar Samardžić0%
Lorenzo Bernasconi0%
Giorgio Scalvini0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nikola Krstović50%
Lazar Samardžić25%
Gianluca Gaetano0%
Sead Kolašinac0%
Mario Pašalić0%
Éderson0%
Marco Carnesecchi0%
Giacomo Raspadori0%
Gianluca Scamacca0%
Odilon Kossounou0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Charles De Ketelaere0%
Nicola Zalewski0%
Lorenzo Bernasconi0%
Giorgio Scalvini0%
Bologna · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Riccardo Orsolini27%
Santiago Castro20%
Jonathan Rowe20%
Federico Bernardeschi18%
Jens Odgaard18%
Thijs Dallinga14%
João Mário13%
Nicolò Cambiaghi10%
Giovanni Fabbian10%
Tommaso Pobega8%
Emil Holm6%
Remo Freuler2%
Jhon Lucumí2%
Nikola Moro2%
Juan Miranda2%
Lewis Ferguson2%
Simon Sohm0%
Ciro Immobile0%
Łukasz Skorupski0%
Lorenzo De Silvestri0%
Charalampos Lykogiannis0%
Federico Ravaglia0%
Nicolò Casale0%
Torbjørn Heggem0%
Nadir Zortea0%
Martin Vitík0%
Benjamín Domínguez0%
Ibrahim Sulemana0%
Eivind Helland0%
Massimo Pessina0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Eivind Helland29%
Ibrahim Sulemana25%
Emil Holm24%
Martin Vitík23%
Juan Miranda23%
Jhon Lucumí20%
Lewis Ferguson19%
Federico Ravaglia17%
Lorenzo De Silvestri17%
Charalampos Lykogiannis17%
Remo Freuler15%
Ciro Immobile14%
Federico Bernardeschi14%
João Mário13%
Tommaso Pobega11%
Łukasz Skorupski10%
Nicolò Cambiaghi10%
Santiago Castro8%
Jonathan Rowe7%
Nadir Zortea7%
Simon Sohm6%
Riccardo Orsolini6%
Nicolò Casale6%
Thijs Dallinga6%
Benjamín Domínguez5%
Jens Odgaard5%
Torbjørn Heggem3%
Nikola Moro2%
Giovanni Fabbian0%
Massimo Pessina0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Emil Holm29%
Benjamín Domínguez16%
Nicolò Cambiaghi15%
Jonathan Rowe10%
Nadir Zortea9%
Thijs Dallinga8%
Juan Miranda7%
Santiago Castro6%
Charalampos Lykogiannis6%
Jens Odgaard5%
Remo Freuler5%
Federico Bernardeschi5%
Tommaso Pobega3%
Jhon Lucumí2%
Nikola Moro2%
Riccardo Orsolini2%
Simon Sohm0%
Ciro Immobile0%
Łukasz Skorupski0%
Lorenzo De Silvestri0%
Federico Ravaglia0%
Nicolò Casale0%
Torbjørn Heggem0%
João Mário0%
Lewis Ferguson0%
Martin Vitík0%
Giovanni Fabbian0%
Ibrahim Sulemana0%
Eivind Helland0%
Massimo Pessina0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Riccardo Orsolini29%
Santiago Castro20%
Jens Odgaard15%
Jonathan Rowe12%
Federico Bernardeschi11%
Giovanni Fabbian10%
Tommaso Pobega8%
Thijs Dallinga8%
Nikola Moro2%
Juan Miranda2%
Lewis Ferguson2%
Simon Sohm0%
Ciro Immobile0%
Jhon Lucumí0%
Remo Freuler0%
Łukasz Skorupski0%
Nicolò Cambiaghi0%
Lorenzo De Silvestri0%
Charalampos Lykogiannis0%
Federico Ravaglia0%
Nicolò Casale0%
Torbjørn Heggem0%
João Mário0%
Emil Holm0%
Nadir Zortea0%
Martin Vitík0%
Benjamín Domínguez0%
Ibrahim Sulemana0%
Eivind Helland0%
Massimo Pessina0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
COM (34)
€488m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
PAR (28)
€142m
CAG (31)
€134m
VEN (36)
€117m
FRO (33)
€84m
LEC (31)
€72m
MON (29)
€70m
Atalanta's squad is €220m more valuable than Bologna's (€438m vs €218m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COM (13)
€261m
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
VEN (9)
€39m
PAR (8)
€35m
FRO (8)
€34m
MON (11)
€26m
LEC (9)
€20m
Atalanta's attack is €54m more valuable than Bologna's (€158m vs €104m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
COM (7)
€83m
PAR (8)
€60m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
VEN (11)
€31m
CAG (9)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
MON (7)
€24m
LEC (8)
€16m
Atalanta's midfield is €93m more valuable than Bologna's (€128m vs €34m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
COM (14)
€144m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
VEN (16)
€47m
PAR (12)
€46m
LEC (14)
€37m
FRO (14)
€24m
MON (11)
€20m
Atalanta's defence is €73m more valuable than Bologna's (€153m vs €79m).
Italy: Serie A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
AS Roma
Inter
AC Milan
Juventus
Lazio
Udinese
Como
Frosinone
Napoli
Sassuolo
Cagliari
Lecce
Torino
Parma
Genoa
Monza
Venezia
Fiorentina