Inter is the clear favourite to win at home, with a 77% chance of victory, largely due to their impressive home form against weaker opponents, averaging 2.4 goals scored and 0.7 conceded. The model predicts a home win as the most likely outcome. With an expected total of 3.5 goals, the most likely score is 2-0, occurring 11.1% of the time. Inter's home scoring and conceding statistics back up the model's prediction. The model's selection is the Over 1.5 goals, occurring 87.2% of the time, with an 8% edge in probability. The suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals and Home win, with the latter occurring 77.2% of the time. Other probabilities include a 15% draw and an 8% away win. The home side's home win percentage is 77%, the draw percentage is 15%, and the away win percentage is 8%.
Results analysis
Inter’s victory over Monza was a textbook confirmation of the model’s forecast. The 4-1 win, the latest in Inter’s unbeaten run of five, matched the predicted home win and the 3-0 most-likely scoreline, underscoring the model’s accuracy. The pre-match favourite, Home win, came through with a 77 % probability, and the model’s call was correct. Every suggested pick was settled: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.5 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 99.5 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 99.0 %, Home +2 handicap hit at 98.2 %, Under 7.5 hit at 97.9 %, Away under 2.5 goals hit at 96.8 %, Away under 1.5 HT goals hit at 95.8 %, and Away under 1.5 2H goals hit at 95.2 %. The model’s selections performed impressively across the board.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Inter win✓ Hit
76.5%
Avg Implied 81.2% · @ 1.18
Edge
-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Draw✗ Miss
15.4%
Avg Implied 12.9% · @ 7.41
Edge
+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
8.40
Pinnacle
8.22
Marathonbet
8.20
Dafabet
7.60
Superbet
7.60
Monza win✗ Miss
8.1%
Avg Implied 5.9% · @ 16.21
Edge
+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
18.00
Betfair
18.00
Marathonbet
17.75
1xBet
17.50
Pinnacle
17.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Inter
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
1.03
2.33
1.13
2.07
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.67
1.33
2.00
1.83
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (21)
2.43
0.90
2.56
0.67
2.33
1.08
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Monza) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Monza
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.00
1.87
0.80
1.47
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.74
1.16
1.60
0.90
1.89
1.44
vs Weaker (11)
1.55
0.73
2.40
0.60
0.83
0.83
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.5%
@ 1.15+5.6%
Under 1.5
12.5%
@ 5.20-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
888Sport
1.15
Under
Betfair
6.00
BetVictor
5.75
888Sport
5.50
Unibet
5.30
Superbet
5.30
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
68.7%
@ 1.52+6.6%
Under 2.5
31.3%
@ 2.49-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.66
10Bet
1.62
Betano
1.55
Unibet
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Under
Betfair
2.63
888Sport
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Pinnacle
2.60
Superbet
2.55
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
47.2%
@ 2.32+6.2%
Under 3.5
52.8%
@ 1.61-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.55
SBO
2.38
1xBet
2.36
Betano
2.35
Unibet
2.33
Under
1xBet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.64
Superbet
1.63
Pinnacle
1.63
888Sport
1.62
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.1%
@ 2.29+12.4%
No
46.9%
@ 1.57-12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
2.35
Betano
2.35
Marathonbet
2.32
1xBet
2.32
Superbet
2.32
No
888Sport
1.65
William Hil
1.62
Superbet
1.59
10Bet
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.7%@ 5.66+2.6%
3-0
9.7%@ 6.29+2.4%
2-1
8.8%@ 9.30+3.9%
3-1
8.0%@ 10.63+3.7%
1-0
7.2%@ 7.35+1.0%
1-1
7.1%@ 12.82+3.6%
4-0
6.6%@ 9.19+1.6%
4-1 ✓
5.4%@ 15.01+2.4%
Inter goals ↓
Monza goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.6%
1.7%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
1
7.2%
7.1%
2.7%
0.7%
0.2%
2
11%
8.8%
3.6%
1.0%
0.2%
3
9.7%
8.0%
3.3%
0.9%
0.2%
4
6.6%
5.4%
2.2%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Inter goals (down), columns = Monza goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Inter
2.29
Napoli
2.00
AS Roma
1.92
Como
1.87
AC Milan
1.84
Juventus
1.82
Atalanta
1.55
Bologna
1.47
Lazio
1.42
Udinese
1.32
Sassuolo
1.29
Torino
1.18
Parma
1.18
Monza
1.17
Venezia
1.17
Cagliari
1.13
Fiorentina
1.11
Genoa
1.08
Lecce
1.00
Frosinone
0.94
Inter is 1.12 points better than Monza in terms of average points per game (2.29 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Inter
2.34
Como
1.71
Juventus
1.61
AS Roma
1.55
Napoli
1.53
AC Milan
1.39
Atalanta
1.34
Bologna
1.29
Sassuolo
1.21
Udinese
1.18
Torino
1.16
Genoa
1.08
Lazio
1.08
Fiorentina
1.08
Cagliari
1.05
Monza
1.04
Venezia
1.04
Frosinone
0.83
Lecce
0.74
Parma
0.74
Inter is 1.31 goals better than Monza in terms of goals scored per game (2.34 vs 1.04).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Como
0.76
AS Roma
0.82
Juventus
0.89
AC Milan
0.92
Inter
0.92
Atalanta
0.95
Napoli
0.95
Lazio
1.05
Bologna
1.21
Parma
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Lecce
1.32
Sassuolo
1.32
Fiorentina
1.32
Genoa
1.34
Cagliari
1.39
Monza
1.42
Venezia
1.42
Torino
1.66
Frosinone
1.77
Inter is 0.50 goals better than Monza in terms of goals conceded per game (0.92 vs 1.42).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Como
62%
Inter
60%
Napoli
59%
Juventus
58%
AS Roma
56%
Atalanta
55%
Bologna
55%
AC Milan
52%
Fiorentina
51%
Lazio
50%
Genoa
49%
Sassuolo
46%
Udinese
46%
Cagliari
46%
Torino
44%
Parma
44%
Lecce
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Inter
For 4.7 · Against 3.6 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 10.3 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Monza
For 5.6 · Against 2.9 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.9 · Against 15.2 · Total 28.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Inter
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
10.4
8.2
3.3
3.0
3.6
24.1
23.5
24.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
8.5
7.6
9.2
3.5
3.5
3.5
24.1
22.4
25.5
vs Weaker (32)
9.7
11.8
7.5
3.2
2.8
3.6
24.0
24.1
23.9
% over line
52%
71%
35%
36%
38%
35%
56%
58%
54%
% under line
48%
29%
65%
64%
62%
65%
44%
42%
46%
This opponent (Monza) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Monza
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.6
8.3
4.4
4.0
4.8
27.8
27.2
28.5
vs Stronger (4)
9.5
11.5
7.5
4.2
4.5
4.0
21.8
24.0
19.5
vs Similar (30)
8.6
9.1
8.1
4.9
3.9
5.9
28.2
26.8
29.6
vs Weaker (16)
9.5
10.1
8.9
3.6
4.1
3.0
28.6
28.6
28.6
% over line
40%
52%
28%
60%
48%
72%
86%
84%
88%
% under line
60%
48%
72%
40%
52%
28%
14%
16%
12%
This opponent (Inter) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Frosinone
10.0
Lecce
9.9
Juventus
9.7
Udinese
9.4
Bologna
9.4
Inter
9.2
Atalanta
9.1
Venezia
9.0
Sassuolo
9.0
Monza
9.0
Cagliari
8.9
Fiorentina
8.9
Parma
8.8
AC Milan
8.7
AS Roma
8.7
Genoa
8.6
Lazio
8.6
Torino
8.5
Napoli
8.4
Como
7.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lazio
5.3
Fiorentina
4.8
Frosinone
4.8
Como
4.7
Monza
4.5
Genoa
4.5
Sassuolo
4.4
AS Roma
4.3
Venezia
4.3
Bologna
4.0
Cagliari
3.9
Parma
3.9
Lecce
3.8
AC Milan
3.8
Udinese
3.8
Juventus
3.6
Atalanta
3.6
Torino
3.5
Napoli
3.5
Inter
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Frosinone
30.3
Venezia
29.8
Bologna
28.4
AS Roma
28.3
Fiorentina
28.1
Monza
27.8
Cagliari
27.7
Genoa
27.6
Como
26.3
Lecce
25.5
Udinese
25.0
Lazio
24.9
Sassuolo
24.7
Torino
24.6
Parma
24.5
Inter
24.1
Napoli
23.5
Juventus
23.1
Atalanta
21.9
AC Milan
21.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
41.6%
@ 1.80-10.3%
Under 9.5
58.4%
@ 1.94+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.91
Betano
1.85
Pinnacle
1.83
Superbet
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Under
Unibet
2.02
Pinnacle
2.02
1xBet
1.98
Betfair
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
47.1%
@ 2.54+10.5%
Under 3.5
52.9%
@ 1.47-10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.80
Pinnacle
2.76
Betano
2.75
Unibet
2.45
1xBet
2.25
Under
1xBet
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Unibet
1.47
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
68.1%
@ 1.40+1.8%
Under 21.5
31.9%
@ 2.75-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.52
1xBet
1.27
Under
1xBet
3.20
Superbet
2.30
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Inter or Draw✓ Hit
93.5%
Avg Implied 93.0% · @ 1.03
Edge
+0.5%
77%
15%
8%
covers Inter + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
10Bet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Inter or Monza✓ Hit
85.2%
Avg Implied 87.3% · @ 1.10
Edge
-2.1%
77%
15%
8%
covers Inter + Monza
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.11
Betano
1.10
888Sport
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Draw or Monza✗ Miss
21.4%
Avg Implied 19.7% · @ 4.84
Edge
+1.6%
77%
15%
8%
covers Draw + Monza
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
5.50
1xBet
5.40
Betano
5.10
Superbet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Inter over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
93.0%
@ 1.03+2.3%
Under
7.0%
@ 10.06-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Under
888Sport
12.00
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
10.70
Superbet
10.00
Unibet
9.50
Inter over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
74.3%
@ 1.27+0.6%
Under
25.7%
@ 3.56-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
Under
Pinnacle
3.85
Betfair
3.80
BetVictor
3.70
Marathonbet
3.66
1xBet
3.66
Inter over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
49.6%
@ 1.86-0.6%
Under
50.4%
@ 1.87+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.05
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathonbet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Superbet
1.87
Under
Marathonbet
1.94
1xBet
1.94
Pinnacle
1.93
Betfair
1.91
BetVictor
1.91
Inter over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
27.6%
@ 3.20-1.5%
Under
72.4%
@ 1.32+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.70
Pinnacle
3.36
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Unibet
3.15
Under
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Betano
1.34
888Sport
1.33
Monza over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
49.4%
@ 2.18+6.8%
Under
50.6%
@ 1.62-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.31
Betano
2.25
BetVictor
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Marathonbet
2.19
Under
888Sport
1.67
Superbet
1.65
Betfair
1.65
Pinnacle
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Monza over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
14.9%
@ 7.32+2.2%
Under
85.1%
@ 1.07-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.10
Bet365
8.00
1xBet
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Unibet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
888Sport
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Monza over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
3.2%
@ 23.88-0.9%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.01+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
29.00
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
25.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Betano
1.01
Monza over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.5%
@ 90.00-99.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
90.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Inter, so a minus line means Inter give that many goals of a start and Monza receive them. At -1, Inter must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Inter win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Inter)Actual: Inter
Inter -2
36.3%
@ 2.38-1.7%
Draw -2
22.0%
@ 3.79-1.9%
Monza +2
41.7%
@ 2.37+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
2.65
Bet365
2.38
Superbet
2.35
Unibet
2.30
Betfair
2.30
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.82
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.65
Away
Marathonbet
2.46
Superbet
2.45
Betfair
2.40
Bet365
2.40
Unibet
2.38
Handicap -1 (Inter)Actual: Inter
Inter -1
58.3%
@ 1.52-1.0%
Draw -1
20.3%
@ 4.10-1.7%
Monza +1
21.4%
@ 4.83+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.62
Superbet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
Marathonbet
1.51
Unibet
1.50
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Superbet
4.25
Marathonbet
4.05
Unibet
3.95
Away
Marathonbet
5.50
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.85
Unibet
4.80
Bet365
4.50
Handicap +1 (Inter)Actual: Inter
Inter +1
93.5%
@ 1.03+1.6%
Draw +1
4.7%
@ 16.00-1.2%
Monza -1
1.8%
@ 43.50-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
Away
Betfair
46.00
Bet365
41.00
Handicap +2 (Inter)Actual: Inter
Inter +2
98.2%
Draw +2
1.4%
Monza -2
0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Inter
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.43
0.87
0.47
1.00
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.83
0.00
0.33
vs Weaker (21)
1.05
0.33
0.78
0.22
1.25
0.42
Clean sheet %
70% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Monza) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Monza
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.43
0.60
0.33
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.53
0.50
0.50
0.78
0.56
vs Weaker (11)
0.45
0.27
0.80
0.00
0.17
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
79.9%
@ 1.25+4.9%
Under 0.5
20.1%
@ 3.74-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.28
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Under
Superbet
4.10
Betfair
4.00
BetVictor
3.90
Marathonbet
3.84
1xBet
3.84
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
41.5%
@ 2.23-0.8%
Under 1.5
58.5%
@ 1.63+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.35
SBO
2.31
10Bet
2.30
Pinnacle
2.29
1xBet
2.25
Under
Superbet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Betfair
1.65
SBO
1.64
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.4%
@ 4.91-2.7%
Under 2.5
83.6%
@ 1.16+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.00
Betano
5.00
William Hil
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Under
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Inter over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
76.0%
@ 1.37+8.2%
Under
24.0%
@ 2.89-8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.36
Superbet
1.34
Under
Superbet
3.00
Unibet
2.95
Pinnacle
2.90
1xBet
2.90
10Bet
2.80
Inter over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
31.5%
@ 2.73-2.5%
Under
68.5%
@ 1.41+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.88
Pinnacle
2.85
Betano
2.80
Unibet
2.70
Marathonbet
2.65
Under
Superbet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Betano
1.40
Inter over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.8%
@ 6.43-3.6%
Under
89.2%
@ 1.08+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
7.00
1xBet
6.60
Unibet
6.40
Betano
6.30
Superbet
5.85
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Monza over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
23.8%
@ 4.08+1.0%
Under
76.2%
@ 1.21-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.39
10Bet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.05
Betano
4.05
Unibet
4.00
Under
Superbet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Betano
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
Monza over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.2%
@ 15.50-1.9%
Under
95.8%
@ 1.02+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Monza over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.5%
@ 85.00-99.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
85.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Inter
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.60
1.47
0.67
1.07
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.00
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (21)
1.38
0.57
1.78
0.44
1.08
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Monza) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Monza
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.57
1.27
0.47
0.93
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.11
0.63
1.10
0.40
1.11
0.89
vs Weaker (11)
1.09
0.45
1.60
0.60
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
83.5%
Under 0.5
16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
53.9%
Under 1.5
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
29.6%
Under 2.5
70.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Inter over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
77.2%
Under
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
41.4%
Under
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
16.0%
Under
84.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monza over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
30.8%
Under
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monza over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monza over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
97.9%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
96.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
888Sport
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.8%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
94.7%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.01
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
93.5%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
10Bet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
888Sport
1.03
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
93.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
93.0%
1.03
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Betfair
1.03
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
89.2%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
87.8%
1.08
888Sport
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
87.5%
1.15
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
888Sport
1.15
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
85.3%
1.08
Superbet
1.09
Betano
1.08
-
-
-
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
85.2%
1.10
10Bet
1.11
Betano
1.10
888Sport
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-2.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
85.1%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
888Sport
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-2.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.6%
1.16
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
80.0%
1.35
Unibet
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Betfair
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Betano
1.33
+11.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
79.9%
1.25
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.28
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 2H goals
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
76.5%
1.18
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
-4.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 0.5 HT goals
76.2%
1.21
Superbet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Betano
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
-1.0%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 HT goals
76.0%
1.37
Pinnacle
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.36
Superbet
1.34
+8.2%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
75.6%
1.24
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.25
888Sport
1.25
-0.6%
✗ Miss
Home over 1.5 goals
74.3%
1.27
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
72.4%
1.32
Marathonbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Betano
1.34
888Sport
1.33
+1.5%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
71.9%
1.16
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.14
-
-
-
-7.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners
70.3%
1.58
Unibet
1.64
Pinnacle
1.60
Superbet
1.60
1xBet
1.57
Betfair
1.57
+11.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Inter · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lautaro Martínez48%
Marcus Thuram30%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu30%
Francesco Pio Esposito21%
Federico Dimarco17%
Ange-Yoan Bonny15%
Piotr Zieliński15%
Denzel Dumfries14%
Andy Diouf14%
Henrikh Mkhitaryan11%
Yann Bisseck9%
Petar Sučić8%
Nicolò Barella7%
Alessandro Bastoni5%
Manuel Akanji4%
Carlos Augusto4%
Luís Henrique2%
Stefan de Vrij0%
Matteo Darmian0%
Francesco Acerbi0%
Yann Sommer0%
Davide Frattesi0%
Josep Martínez0%
Matteo Cocchi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Hakan Çalhanoğlu23%
Alessandro Bastoni23%
Nicolò Barella20%
Francesco Acerbi19%
Henrikh Mkhitaryan18%
Lautaro Martínez15%
Carlos Augusto13%
Stefan de Vrij12%
Petar Sučić12%
Yann Bisseck11%
Manuel Akanji11%
Federico Dimarco11%
Denzel Dumfries7%
Marcus Thuram7%
Piotr Zieliński6%
Francesco Pio Esposito6%
Andy Diouf4%
Luís Henrique2%
Ange-Yoan Bonny2%
Matteo Darmian0%
Yann Sommer0%
Davide Frattesi0%
Josep Martínez0%
Matteo Cocchi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Federico Dimarco26%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu20%
Nicolò Barella18%
Marcus Thuram16%
Lautaro Martínez15%
Alessandro Bastoni13%
Ange-Yoan Bonny11%
Francesco Pio Esposito10%
Piotr Zieliński8%
Denzel Dumfries7%
Petar Sučić6%
Yann Bisseck6%
Henrikh Mkhitaryan5%
Luís Henrique5%
Francesco Acerbi4%
Davide Frattesi3%
Carlos Augusto2%
Manuel Akanji0%
Stefan de Vrij0%
Matteo Darmian0%
Yann Sommer0%
Josep Martínez0%
Andy Diouf0%
Matteo Cocchi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Lautaro Martínez42%
Marcus Thuram35%
Federico Dimarco20%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu17%
Francesco Pio Esposito17%
Henrikh Mkhitaryan11%
Denzel Dumfries7%
Carlos Augusto7%
Davide Frattesi6%
Andy Diouf4%
Piotr Zieliński2%
Petar Sučić2%
Manuel Akanji0%
Stefan de Vrij0%
Matteo Darmian0%
Francesco Acerbi0%
Yann Sommer0%
Luís Henrique0%
Yann Bisseck0%
Nicolò Barella0%
Alessandro Bastoni0%
Josep Martínez0%
Ange-Yoan Bonny0%
Matteo Cocchi0%
Monza
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gustavo Varela100%
Andrea Colpani33%
Omari Forson33%
Patrick Cutrone0%
Samuele Birindelli0%
Ricardo Mangas0%
Filippo Delli Carri0%
Andrea Carboni0%
Lorenzo Lucchesi0%
Manga Foe Ondoa0%
Eddy Kouadio0%
Mathis Mout0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lorenzo Lucchesi67%
Eddy Kouadio33%
Patrick Cutrone0%
Andrea Colpani0%
Samuele Birindelli0%
Ricardo Mangas0%
Filippo Delli Carri0%
Andrea Carboni0%
Omari Forson0%
Gustavo Varela0%
Manga Foe Ondoa0%
Mathis Mout0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Patrick Cutrone33%
Ricardo Mangas33%
Mathis Mout33%
Andrea Colpani0%
Samuele Birindelli0%
Filippo Delli Carri0%
Andrea Carboni0%
Omari Forson0%
Gustavo Varela0%
Lorenzo Lucchesi0%
Manga Foe Ondoa0%
Eddy Kouadio0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gustavo Varela67%
Patrick Cutrone33%
Andrea Colpani0%
Samuele Birindelli0%
Ricardo Mangas0%
Filippo Delli Carri0%
Andrea Carboni0%
Omari Forson0%
Lorenzo Lucchesi0%
Manga Foe Ondoa0%
Eddy Kouadio0%
Mathis Mout0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (25)
€694m
AM (33)
€585m
JUV (28)
€569m
COM (34)
€488m
AR (29)
€471m
NAP (33)
€459m
ATA (26)
€438m
FIO (28)
€330m
LAZ (35)
€240m
BOL (25)
€218m
SAS (38)
€194m
GEN (32)
€182m
UDI (30)
€157m
TOR (31)
€144m
PAR (28)
€142m
CAG (31)
€134m
VEN (36)
€117m
FRO (33)
€84m
LEC (31)
€72m
MON (29)
€70m
Inter's squad is €624m more valuable than Monza's (€694m vs €70m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
COM (13)
€261m
JUV (10)
€240m
AM (8)
€223m
INT (5)
€220m
NAP (12)
€206m
ATA (7)
€158m
AR (6)
€138m
FIO (9)
€125m
BOL (8)
€104m
SAS (12)
€90m
LAZ (9)
€60m
GEN (9)
€54m
CAG (11)
€51m
UDI (8)
€46m
TOR (10)
€43m
VEN (9)
€39m
PAR (8)
€35m
FRO (8)
€34m
MON (11)
€26m
LEC (9)
€20m
Inter's attack is €194m more valuable than Monza's (€220m vs €26m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€232m
AM (11)
€153m
JUV (6)
€140m
ATA (10)
€128m
AR (5)
€118m
FIO (6)
€107m
NAP (7)
€101m
LAZ (8)
€86m
COM (7)
€83m
PAR (8)
€60m
SAS (9)
€53m
TOR (8)
€46m
GEN (6)
€44m
UDI (8)
€39m
BOL (5)
€34m
VEN (11)
€31m
CAG (9)
€31m
FRO (11)
€27m
MON (7)
€24m
LEC (8)
€16m
Inter's midfield is €208m more valuable than Monza's (€232m vs €24m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
INT (10)
€242m
AR (18)
€215m
AM (14)
€209m
JUV (12)
€189m
ATA (9)
€153m
NAP (14)
€152m
COM (14)
€144m
FIO (13)
€98m
LAZ (18)
€93m
GEN (17)
€84m
BOL (12)
€79m
UDI (14)
€72m
TOR (13)
€54m
SAS (17)
€52m
CAG (11)
€52m
VEN (16)
€47m
PAR (12)
€46m
LEC (14)
€37m
FRO (14)
€24m
MON (11)
€20m
Inter's defence is €222m more valuable than Monza's (€242m vs €20m).
Italy: Serie A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
AS Roma
AC Milan
Juventus
Atalanta
Lazio
Udinese
Como
Frosinone
Napoli
Sassuolo
Cagliari
Lecce
Torino
Bologna
Parma
Genoa
Venezia
Fiorentina