Inter are the clear favourites, with a 51% chance of victory versus Monza’s 24% home-win and 25% draw probabilities. The model expects three goals on average, yet the most likely total is two, with a 24% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, at 11.8%. Monza, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 0.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Inter, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 2.1 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 89.9%, Over 2.5 cards at 83.7%, Over 1.5 goals hit at 81.1%, and Over 21.5 fouls at 80.3%. Monza’s recent form shows two straight defeats before a win, 1-4 against Inter, while Inter have gone unbeaten in five matches, 4-1 against Monza.
Results analysis
The final score of 2-2 stunned the pre-match favourite, Inter, who had been tipped to win with a 51% probability. The model’s pick of an away win proved wrong, as the match ended in a draw. The upset was compounded by Monza’s recent form, where a 2-straight-defeat run had left them looking fragile, while Inter had been unbeaten in their last five outings. The model’s single suggested pick, Over 1.5, hit with an 81.1% probability. The match’s outcome matched the most likely scoreline of 1-1, but the 2-2 finish was the decisive surprise.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Monza win✗ Miss
24.1%
Avg Implied 17.0% · @ 5.62
Edge
+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
25.3%
Avg Implied 21.8% · @ 4.39
Edge
+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Inter win✗ Miss
50.7%
Avg Implied 61.2% · @ 1.56
Edge
-10.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Monza
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.17
1.53
0.73
1.20
1.60
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
2.33
0.50
1.00
0.25
3.00
vs Similar (13)
1.08
1.31
1.14
1.14
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (11)
2.27
0.36
2.33
0.17
2.20
0.60
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inter
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
1.23
2.47
0.60
1.93
1.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.40
1.70
1.20
1.00
1.60
2.40
vs Weaker (20)
2.60
1.00
3.10
0.40
2.10
1.60
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Monza) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.1%
Under 1.5
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.6%
@ 1.67+0.4%
Under 2.5
42.4%
@ 2.23-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.2%
Under 3.5
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.3%
No
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
1-2
9.7%
0-2
8.1%
0-1
7.9%
2-1
6.4%
0-0
6.1%
1-3
5.8%
2-2 ✓
5.8%
Monza goals ↓
Inter goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
7.9%
8.1%
4.9%
2.2%
1
4.9%
12%
9.7%
5.8%
2.6%
2
3.5%
6.4%
5.8%
3.5%
1.6%
3
1.4%
2.5%
2.3%
1.4%
0.6%
4
0.4%
0.8%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Monza goals (down), columns = Inter goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Napoli
2.37
Lazio
1.95
Inter
1.89
Juventus
1.89
AC Milan
1.84
Atalanta
1.68
AS Roma
1.66
Fiorentina
1.47
Bologna
1.42
Torino
1.39
Monza
1.37
Udinese
1.21
Sassuolo
1.18
Empoli
1.13
Salernitana
1.11
Lecce
0.95
Hellas Verona
0.87
Spezia
0.79
Cremonese
0.71
Sampdoria
0.50
Monza is 0.53 points worse than Inter in terms of average points per game (1.37 vs 1.89).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Napoli
2.03
Inter
1.87
Atalanta
1.74
AC Milan
1.68
Lazio
1.58
Juventus
1.47
Fiorentina
1.39
Bologna
1.39
AS Roma
1.32
Salernitana
1.26
Monza
1.26
Udinese
1.24
Sassuolo
1.24
Torino
1.11
Empoli
0.97
Cremonese
0.95
Hellas Verona
0.87
Lecce
0.87
Spezia
0.82
Sampdoria
0.63
Monza is 0.61 goals worse than Inter in terms of goals scored per game (1.26 vs 1.87).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Napoli
0.74
Lazio
0.79
Juventus
0.87
AS Roma
1.00
Torino
1.08
Inter
1.11
Fiorentina
1.13
AC Milan
1.13
Lecce
1.21
Udinese
1.26
Atalanta
1.26
Bologna
1.29
Empoli
1.29
Monza
1.37
Hellas Verona
1.54
Sassuolo
1.61
Salernitana
1.63
Spezia
1.67
Cremonese
1.82
Sampdoria
1.87
Monza is 0.26 goals worse than Inter in terms of goals conceded per game (1.37 vs 1.11).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Monza
For 5.4 · Against 4.0 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.6 · Against 15.8 · Total 29.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Inter
For 7.3 · Against 5.1 · Total 12.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 11.0 · Total 21.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Monza
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.2
10.5
3.8
3.5
4.2
31.0
29.9
32.1
vs Stronger (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
10.9
12.4
9.7
3.2
2.8
3.7
28.7
29.0
28.5
vs Weaker (24)
10.1
9.3
11.0
5.3
4.5
6.2
32.0
30.2
34.0
% over line
53%
53%
53%
58%
56%
60%
88%
82%
94%
% under line
47%
47%
47%
42%
44%
40%
12%
18%
6%
This opponent (Inter) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inter
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.4
10.6
2.5
2.5
2.5
22.6
22.8
22.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
9.8
9.2
10.1
3.3
3.9
2.9
24.5
25.4
23.9
vs Weaker (33)
10.9
10.8
10.9
2.1
2.0
2.2
21.6
21.8
21.4
% over line
56%
61%
50%
28%
23%
33%
50%
56%
44%
% under line
44%
39%
50%
72%
77%
67%
50%
44%
56%
This opponent (Monza) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Empoli
10.8
Inter
10.4
Salernitana
10.4
Udinese
10.2
Monza
10.2
Sassuolo
10.1
AS Roma
9.8
Cremonese
9.6
Sampdoria
9.6
Lecce
9.5
Hellas Verona
9.5
Juventus
9.4
Bologna
9.4
Torino
9.3
Atalanta
9.2
Spezia
9.2
AC Milan
9.0
Napoli
9.0
Fiorentina
8.4
Lazio
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
AS Roma
5.7
Lazio
5.6
Fiorentina
5.5
Lecce
5.3
Cremonese
5.3
Salernitana
5.1
Monza
5.1
Torino
5.0
Udinese
4.9
Hellas Verona
4.9
Bologna
4.9
Atalanta
4.8
Napoli
4.7
Sassuolo
4.6
Spezia
4.6
Juventus
4.6
Empoli
4.5
AC Milan
4.5
Sampdoria
4.4
Inter
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Monza
31.3
Torino
30.1
Lecce
30.0
Cremonese
29.4
Hellas Verona
28.7
Salernitana
28.1
Udinese
27.8
Fiorentina
27.0
Spezia
26.9
Sampdoria
26.9
Juventus
26.6
Atalanta
26.6
Empoli
26.5
Bologna
26.1
Sassuolo
25.9
Napoli
25.8
AS Roma
25.7
AC Milan
25.6
Lazio
24.0
Inter
23.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
56.6%
Under 9.5
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
67.4%
Under 3.5
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
80.3%
Under 21.5
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Monza
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.47
0.47
0.20
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (13)
0.38
0.54
0.29
0.43
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (11)
0.91
0.09
0.83
0.00
1.00
0.20
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inter
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.43
1.27
0.33
0.87
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.60
0.80
0.40
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (20)
1.30
0.35
1.50
0.30
1.10
0.40
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Monza) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Monza over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monza over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monza over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Monza
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.70
1.07
0.53
0.67
0.87
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.33
0.50
1.00
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.77
0.86
0.71
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (11)
1.36
0.27
1.50
0.17
1.20
0.40
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Inter) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inter
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.80
1.20
0.27
1.07
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.80
1.10
0.40
0.60
1.20
1.60
vs Weaker (20)
1.30
0.65
1.60
0.10
1.00
1.20
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Monza) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Monza over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monza over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monza over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inter over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Monza
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dany Mota17%
Carlos Augusto17%
Patrick Ciurria17%
Andrea Colpani15%
Matteo Pessina14%
Andrea Petagna13%
Giulio Donati12%
Gianluca Caprari11%
Stefano Sensi11%
Filippo Ranocchia7%
Luca Caldirola6%
Christian Gytkjær5%
Nicolò Rovella4%
Armando Izzo3%
Pablo Marí3%
Valentin Antov0%
Marlon0%
Michele Di Gregorio0%
Samuele Birindelli0%
Marco D'Alessandro0%
Mattia Valoti0%
Andrea Barberis0%
Salvatore Molina0%
José Machín0%
Andrea Carboni0%
Warren Bondo0%
Franco Carboni0%
Samuele Vignato0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Giulio Donati38%
Armando Izzo33%
Stefano Sensi29%
Samuele Birindelli26%
Marlon25%
Marco D'Alessandro25%
Warren Bondo25%
Nicolò Rovella24%
Valentin Antov22%
Salvatore Molina20%
Gianluca Caprari19%
Matteo Pessina17%
Luca Caldirola16%
José Machín16%
Pablo Marí13%
Carlos Augusto11%
Patrick Ciurria11%
Filippo Ranocchia7%
Dany Mota7%
Andrea Petagna6%
Mattia Valoti6%
Andrea Colpani4%
Christian Gytkjær0%
Michele Di Gregorio0%
Andrea Barberis0%
Andrea Carboni0%
Franco Carboni0%
Samuele Vignato0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Samuele Vignato20%
Carlos Augusto14%
Patrick Ciurria14%
Andrea Petagna13%
Andrea Barberis11%
Matteo Pessina9%
Nicolò Rovella8%
José Machín8%
Gianluca Caprari5%
Andrea Colpani4%
Stefano Sensi4%
Dany Mota3%
Samuele Birindelli3%
Michele Di Gregorio3%
Christian Gytkjær0%
Valentin Antov0%
Giulio Donati0%
Armando Izzo0%
Marlon0%
Luca Caldirola0%
Marco D'Alessandro0%
Mattia Valoti0%
Salvatore Molina0%
Filippo Ranocchia0%
Pablo Marí0%
Andrea Carboni0%
Warren Bondo0%
Franco Carboni0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Filippo Ranocchia14%
Patrick Ciurria8%
Nicolò Rovella8%
Carlos Augusto6%
Matteo Pessina6%
Gianluca Caprari5%
Christian Gytkjær5%
Andrea Colpani4%
Dany Mota3%
Andrea Petagna3%
Valentin Antov0%
Giulio Donati0%
Armando Izzo0%
Marlon0%
Stefano Sensi0%
Luca Caldirola0%
Michele Di Gregorio0%
Samuele Birindelli0%
Marco D'Alessandro0%
Mattia Valoti0%
Andrea Barberis0%
Salvatore Molina0%
José Machín0%
Pablo Marí0%
Andrea Carboni0%
Warren Bondo0%
Franco Carboni0%
Samuele Vignato0%
Inter
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lautaro Martínez39%
Romelu Lukaku33%
Edin Džeko20%
Nicolò Barella19%
Joaquín Correa11%
Henrikh Mkhitaryan11%
Robin Gosens9%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu9%
Marcelo Brozović8%
Federico Dimarco7%
Denzel Dumfries4%
Stefan de Vrij3%
Matteo Darmian2%
Samir Handanovič0%
Danilo D'Ambrosio0%
Milan Škriniar0%
Roberto Gagliardini0%
André Onana0%
Francesco Acerbi0%
Alessandro Bastoni0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Kristjan Asllani0%
Valentín Carboni0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcelo Brozović27%
Roberto Gagliardini20%
Nicolò Barella19%
Valentín Carboni17%
Stefan de Vrij15%
Danilo D'Ambrosio14%
Milan Škriniar14%
Henrikh Mkhitaryan14%
Alessandro Bastoni12%
Lautaro Martínez12%
Francesco Acerbi12%
Matteo Darmian10%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu9%
Denzel Dumfries9%
Edin Džeko9%
André Onana8%
Kristjan Asllani8%
Robin Gosens7%
Romelu Lukaku6%
Federico Dimarco5%
Joaquín Correa3%
Samir Handanovič0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Romelu Lukaku18%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu18%
Lautaro Martínez18%
Federico Dimarco16%
Nicolò Barella13%
Alessandro Bastoni12%
Marcelo Brozović11%
Danilo D'Ambrosio10%
Denzel Dumfries9%
Edin Džeko9%
Joaquín Correa9%
Matteo Darmian5%
Francesco Acerbi5%
Henrikh Mkhitaryan5%
Samir Handanovič0%
Stefan de Vrij0%
Milan Škriniar0%
Roberto Gagliardini0%
André Onana0%
Robin Gosens0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Kristjan Asllani0%
Valentín Carboni0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Lautaro Martínez41%
Romelu Lukaku24%
Edin Džeko20%
Nicolò Barella9%
Roberto Gagliardini8%
Federico Dimarco7%
Henrikh Mkhitaryan5%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu4%
Denzel Dumfries4%
Stefan de Vrij3%
Joaquín Correa3%
Alessandro Bastoni2%
Robin Gosens2%
Samir Handanovič0%
Danilo D'Ambrosio0%
Milan Škriniar0%
Marcelo Brozović0%
André Onana0%
Matteo Darmian0%
Francesco Acerbi0%
Raoul Bellanova0%
Kristjan Asllani0%
Valentín Carboni0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Italy: Serie A 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Italy: Serie A stats & trends →